Ny Rangers put Brendan Smith on waivers

[Claypool]

I think you underestimate the parity in today's NHL. If we added JT and Dahlin, and the kids got better, we could be a lot more then "just a wildcard" spot.

This team wouldn't be better than Toronto, Boston or Tampa Bay over the next three years if all those things happened. Who's playing goal long term? Mrazek? Dude hasn't even played a full season as a starter. Let's say they add Dahlin, have you seen the rest of the defense?

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

This team wouldn't be better than Toronto, Boston or Tampa Bay over the next three years if all those things happened. Who's playing goal long term? Mrazek? Dude hasn't even played a full season as a starter. Let's say they add Dahlin, have you seen the rest of the defense?

so what are you saying?

tank as hard as we can to pick multiple times top 3

you're not getting a Tavares at spot #9, not without a significant amount of lady luck

 

[jkutswings]

This team wouldn't be better than Toronto, Boston or Tampa Bay over the next three years if all those things happened. Who's playing goal long term? Mrazek? Dude hasn't even played a full season as a starter. Let's say they add Dahlin, have you seen the rest of the defense?

He said Detroit, under those circumstances, would be a lot more than just a wild card spot, and you jumped to saying they wouldn't be better than two of the best teams in the entire league.

If Tavares and Dahlin were Wings - and Dahlin performed as advertised, and the kids improved as he noted - I'd predict Detroit would be a 2nd round playoff team. That's certainly better then a token playoff appearance, which is what a wild card team often is, but still has plenty of room for improvement.

 

[ShelbyZ]

True, I guess it comes down to what their direction is next year. If they are in full re-build mode, then just suck it up and let the contract play out. If they are selling now but are planning on being active in the summer in order to compete next season, then I see a buy-out or maybe a trade where they retain a large portion of the contract. At least that way the cap hit doesn't go on as long.

Agreed on the Rangers direction part.

It sounds they will be clearing out expiring contracts at the deadline as well as Zuccarello and McDonagh (and possibly others) before next season. After that, if they decide to take it easy and go with young guys and reasonably priced short term UFA's, they'll have plenty of space to carry Smith as overpriced 3rd pairing guy.

However, if Gorton can't resist going "retro-Sather" and they feel the need to go all in on Tavares, Carlson, Kovalchuk etc etc., then maybe they try to move some or all of Smiths contract somehow.

It's also possible they move him in a trade that brings in a larger but shorter term chunk of bad salary in exchange, like the Leafs did with Phaneuf after Shanahan declared scorched earth.

 

[Claypool]

He said Detroit, under those circumstances, would be a lot more than just a wild card spot, and you jumped to saying they wouldn't be better than two of the best teams in the entire league.

If Tavares and Dahlin were Wings - and Dahlin performed as advertised, and the kids improved as he noted - I'd predict Detroit would be a 2nd round playoff team. That's certainly better then a token playoff appearance, which is what a wild card team often is, but still has plenty of room for improvement.

Well if they aren't better than Boston, Toronto and Tampa Bay they are a wild card team. That's how the standings work.

Even if they get Dahlin, Tavares and all the kids start excelling, then what? Once this team is ready to contend you'll have a 30 year-old #1 center that's likely going to start declining, especially with his skating ability, and be a cap anchor like Toews currently is in Chicago. Any team that is actively rebuilding would be foolish to bring in Tavares.

 

[Datsyukian Deke]

 

[Kyleftlx]

Tavares at 28 years old will only been good enough to get you to a wildcard playoff spot in the short term. Long term he turns into a compliance buyout. You need young superstars in this league the win now. Any team that says they are rebuilding and doesn't go all in on Jack Hughes is lying.

I get where you're coming from, but I think you undersell Tavares a whole lot in this. If Tavares stays healthy, he is pretty much the most likely free agent to be worth a gamble of any free agent since like... Hossa. What young superstars does Pittsburgh have? Last I checked, Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel are all around 30. I'm not trying to say that Tavares is on the same level as Crosby or Malkin, but he is one of the best forwards in the NHL right now.

Look at Jason Spezza. I would argue that Tavares is going to continue to be a better player the next 5 years than Spezza has been moving from Ottawa to Dallas. Regardless, Spezza is a former top pick, he's 34, and just now he is putting together his first really mediocre season of his career. If the risk of signing Tavares long term is that he's going to be 34 and finally dropping into really unacceptable production, I go for him 10 times out of 10.

I agree, the NHL continues to develop towards being more of a young, speedy game. I also think that you have to factor in just how good a superstar player can be for a team. On the flipside of the young superstar argument, McDavid and Eichel are both insanely good players but neither have been able to really push their teams' into perennial contender status just yet.

Adding Tavares alone isn't going to win you a Stanley Cup. However, if Larkin and Mantha continue developing, the Wings use their 2018 1st round pick to snag a really good defenseman that can help sometime in the next couple of years, they hit on another trade/free agent, Hronek/other dmen hit the NHL... you're looking at a team that could compete. It's hard to say because you don't see this sort of thing happen often anymore, but if you get a guy like Tavares, and find a way to surround him with some talent, your team is going to compete.

 

[The Flying Octopus]

Sucks for a guy who played forward up until college. Wonder what his offensive skills are like, hey Kenny ?!?

 

[Henkka]

Why Brendan Smith Really Is That Damn Good

This is one great article, how analytics can fool analyzers, when they don't take REAL eye-test on account.

 

[Winger98]

Why Brendan Smith Really Is That Damn Good

This is one great article, how analytics can fool analyzers, when they don't take REAL eye-test on account.

Problem with people watching Smith is that I think a lot of folks watched him expecting something, and when he didn't meet or match those expectations it becomes, "well, he sucks." And then that's all people looked for when they watched him.

He never became the offensive D a lot of us hoped for but, most nights, he also wasn't the disaster he was often made out to be. The few times I caught him in NY he didn't look great, he didn't look bad...he looked like Smith. The guy's an NHL D. The contract is going to make it hard to find work, though.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

This didn't seem worth starting it's own thread but on a similar topic, whatever happened to Quincey?

He was on the Wild then looks like he got sent down. Is he injured? Washed out of the league?

 

[jkutswings]

This didn't seem worth starting it's own thread but on a similar topic, whatever happened to Quincey?

He was on the Wild then looks like he got sent down. Is he injured? Washed out of the league?

Looks like he was waived in November, and has just been staying in shape on his own, hoping to get another shot:

Wild place struggling defenseman Kyle Quincey on waivers

Yardbarker

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Looks like he was waived in November, and has just been staying in shape on his own, hoping to get another shot:

Wild place struggling defenseman Kyle Quincey on waivers

Yardbarker

oh wow. Thanks for the update. I'm surprised. I always thought Quincey was a fairly solid if unspectacular d-man who would stick around as a #5/6 guy.

A few years ago who would've figured Kindl would be out of the league, Quincey out of the league, Smith on waivers, and Ericsson playing 19+ minutes a night.

Man, D-men are hard to predict.

 

[Dotter]

oh wow. Thanks for the update. I'm surprised. I always thought Quincey was a fairly solid if unspectacular d-man who would stick around as a #5/6 guy.

A few years ago who would've figured Kindl would be out of the league, Quincey out of the league, Smith on waivers, and Ericsson playing 19+ minutes a night.

Man, D-men are hard to predict.

That's a understatement. Ken Holland needs to poach some of those Nashville scouts.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Brendan "turnover' Smith gets waived? I'm pretty sure every dedicated wings fan saw that coming after watching 200 or so games of his.

 

[BinCookin]

You guys remember when i tracked +/- (+=good play, -=bad play) for all our D men one year??

Here is the refresher results:



Smith : Most Mistakes Per Game. He did not make up for it with good plays.

I ranked him our worst D man who played more than 5 GP!!

I am happy he was traded the moment he was traded.

 

[chances14]

You guys remember when i tracked +/- (+=good play, -=bad play) for all our D men one year??

Here is the refresher results:



Smith : Most Mistakes Per Game. He did not make up for it with good plays.

I ranked him our worst D man who played more than 5 GP!!

I am happy he was traded the moment he was traded.

i remember it. and I remember a select group of posters who would criticize your rankings because the fancy stats showed smith as being the wings best defensman LOL

smith is a perfect example of analytics gone bad

 

[Flowah]

I just can't shake the feeling that subconscious bias affects the way you judge a player's +/-. There's no shortage of studies and papers detailing countless ways that we are not that reliable as eyewitnesses. Even when we really try. Even when we think there's no way we aren't being objective.

That's why I tend to favor analytics that take subjectivity out of it.

 

[Redder Winger]

i remember it. and I remember a select group of posters who would criticize your rankings because the fancy stats showed smith as being the wings best defensman LOL

smith is a perfect example of analytics gone bad

Well, no offense, but "positive play" and "negative play" isn't exactly an objective stat.

That said, I think Corsi is a dumb stat that a lot of supposedly "smart" people hang themselves with on a regular basis.

 

[Redder Winger]

I just can't shake the feeling that subconscious bias affects the way you judge a player's +/-. There's no shortage of studies and papers detailing countless ways that we are not that reliable as eyewitnesses. Even when we really try. Even when we think there's no way we aren't being objective.

That's why I tend to favor analytics that take subjectivity out of it.

Of course it does.
If I'm tracking AA vs Darren Helm, I'm far more likely to notice Helm's mistakes than AA's, or give AA credit in a place where I didn't give Helm credit.

It might not even be a bias about the players. Maybe someone might just recognize a certain style of play as more positive and a certain style as more negative. And who knows what styles mean in terms of quality of play?

 

[SpookyTsuki]

oh wow. Thanks for the update. I'm surprised. I always thought Quincey was a fairly solid if unspectacular d-man who would stick around as a #5/6 guy.

A few years ago who would've figured Kindl would be out of the league, Quincey out of the league, Smith on waivers, and Ericsson playing 19+ minutes a night.

Man, D-men are hard to predict.

Ericsson would be in the AHL on a couple of teams..

 

[kliq]

This team wouldn't be better than Toronto, Boston or Tampa Bay over the next three years if all those things happened. Who's playing goal long term? Mrazek? Dude hasn't even played a full season as a starter. Let's say they add Dahlin, have you seen the rest of the defense?

You underestimate parity. Vegas literally went from nothing to 1st in the NHL. Ottawa went from a goal away from the finals, to almost being dead last. Dallas went from being #1 seed 2 years ago, to not making the playoffs, Florida went from 1st place to the basement in 1 season, I can keep giving more examples.

I am not saying that the Wings ARE going to overtake TB, Boston, or Toronto, but to say they can't is just incorrect when recent history has proven that a few roster adds or a few roster losses can completely change the dynamic of a team. If the Wings were able to get Dahlin and JT, and if the kids also improved (which includes Mrazek) there is no doubt in my mind that we would be in the race for the playoffs.

Look at us this year, we sit anywhere from 4-8 points out of the wild card (Carolina has 2 games in hand) you don't think that if you added JT and Dahlin to this roster, we could have 4 more wins? Toronto is doing quite a bit better then us (12-20 points as they have 4 games in hand) but they are going to lose some good players this off season, and we added pieces like that, I think we could compete with them. Of course we would also need guys like Chowolski/Hronek to come in and step up as well, but bringing elite talent can have that effect on the rest of your roster. If we put JT as 1C, Larkin 2C and Z at 3C (ideally move Nielsen/Helm) we have 3 very strong lines. Bring in Dahlin and then pull the trigger on the Faulk trade, and having Faulk-Dahlin, DD-Daley, E-Kronwall and all of a sudden our D doesnt look that bad. Again, not saying we are winning cups, just saying it changes us to a team on the rise.

Now I dont think we are getting JT, but that's not the point.

 

[kliq]

Ericsson would be in the AHL on a couple of teams..

Nah, not this year. He's playing well this season.

 

[kliq]

i remember it. and I remember a select group of posters who would criticize your rankings because the fancy stats showed smith as being the wings best defensman LOL

smith is a perfect example of analytics gone bad

Smith was a weird one. I remember when I watched him in person, he really was a player that IMO stuck out as he seemed to drive the action. The issue with him, was it seemed to never lead to anything. He would get the puck in his own end, bring it up the ice and then just doing nothing with it by either losing it, shooting the puck wide, or missing a pass. The kid had talent, but just didnt know who to make it all work. I dont know, maybe he is a case of someone who was talented, but just didnt have hockey sense.

 

[Dotter]

I remember going to Griffins games and leaving highly disappointed that Lebda significantly outplayed Brendan Smith every single game I watched. Smith looked so clueless and constantly out of place. Lebda skated circles around him... and Smith is known for his skating. It was at that point I pretty much knew Smith was overly hyped. I still had hope he'd put it together...

When Ken Holland finally traded him I did a backflip.