GDT: NY Rangers 2018 Development Camp Thread

[JayMan82]

We should nickname him Donahue moving forward. Tip of the hat to the Naked Gun reference.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

I think all of our players need to step up their intensity level, otherwise we got a very soft team.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

My opinion is I just don't really see him as a first line 60-70 point forward like some do. It's nothing to do with effort, he just isn't that good.

So what do you believe happens if he was to get regular top 6 ice time that he hasn’t gotten the last two seasons? He’d be totally ineffective? Maybe he was just lucky the past two seasons? Because his numbers state the exact opposite of your conclusion.

Maybe, and I know this is a crazy theory, we had a coach the team wasn’t on the same page with who for two years misused one of his most productive forwards and the fans are fooled by his player usage.

 

[Ola]

So what do you believe happens if he was to get regular top 6 ice time that he hasn’t gotten the last two seasons? He’d be totally ineffective? Maybe he was just lucky the past two seasons? Because his numbers state the exact opposite of your conclusion.

Maybe, and I know this is a crazy theory, we had a coach the team wasn’t on the same page with who for two years misused one of his most productive forwards and the fans are fooled by his player usage.

Buch was a rookie and then a soap more the last two seasons. I think it’s natural progression that should take another step this season.

 

[Siamese Dream]

So what do you believe happens if he was to get regular top 6 ice time that he hasn’t gotten the last two seasons? He’d be totally ineffective? Maybe he was just lucky the past two seasons? Because his numbers state the exact opposite of your conclusion.

Maybe, and I know this is a crazy theory, we had a coach the team wasn’t on the same page with who for two years misused one of his most productive forwards and the fans are fooled by his player usage.

At best I see him as a 2nd liner in terms of actual talent, though he would probably play on the 1st line looking at the assets this team has unless they get another high draft pick, and peak at the high 50s in points totals playing that role.

 

[kovazub94]

So pretty much everyone agrees that Buchnevich has a very top tier skill level and talent that makes a potential of 1st liner impactful winger a realm of possibility.

Those posters who outright calls him lazy completely disregard the impact of his head injury or being yanked up and down the line up with least minutes on ice (by a coach who had only one way to deal with yutz). Did Buch look disengage toward the end of the season? Yeah. Was it due to laziness? Not how I see it.

Things that do concern me are certain indications of immaturity. Not spending enough time to work on his strength as part of his preparation to come over to the US. Similarly, he could’ve spent at least some time learning the language. You can see how smart he is in general (not just in hockey terms) based on how quickly he picked up English once he came over but from his own accounts it is clear that desk studying or hockey preparation away from ice is not his forte.

To me these are indications of immaturity - things that could be overcome with age and learning the value of working on important things that he doesn’t enjoy per se. And of course there’s a possibility that he never gets there and that would be a real shame.

Next season will be his 3rd in he NHL and it should show where he’s heading but I bet his 4th season is when he’d fully establish himself.

 

[eco's bones]

Buchnevich suffered a back injury fairly early on in his rookie year and was out of the lineup for a while--first to get over the injury and second to try 'to build up his core'. Not sure about the length of time for that but my guess is it was a good two months......and just because a player is deemed healthy enough to return to play doesn't mean he's 100%. His physical strength and controlling that issue at least played some part in how the Rangers used him the rest of the year.

He was better last year but that sneaky hit by Gardiner that gave him a concussion turned him into a perimeter player afterwards. To be fair we've seen the same from other players such as Rick Nash, Mika Zibanejad. It took a good month after Mika returned to play last year before he got back into the swing of things too. Pavel really never did. At the half way point of the season---the 41st game that is--Pavel had 11 goals and 15 assists--26 points and 86 shots on goal. His average time on ice at that point was 14:44. I wrote all this down on our players because I'm interested how a player does from the first half of the season to the second. He was on a 52 point pace at that point in time.

He was concussed in game 51 and missed 7 games. The other game he missed was game #42 against Vegas for ? reason. His second half goes like this--33 games played--3 goals--14 assists--17 points--50 shots on goal. His average ice time improved actually from 14:44 to 15:01. Of significance though in the last 3 weeks or so AV took Buchnevich off the line with Zibanejad and Kreider--I have that happening in game 70. Fast going up to play with Mika and Chris and Buchnevich on a line with Namestnikov and Vesey. In the time after his return from the concussion starting with game 59 and ending with 69 he had a goal--3 assists and that goofy fight with Gostisbehere.

3 goals in the 33 games of his second half of the season just doesn't cut it. No one should argue about his talent but he's got to do more and 136 shots in 74 games isn't a great number either. He needs to be more of a goal scoring threat--he needs to get more shots on net and he needs to get stronger so as to regularly get to the areas of the ice where he can score goals from. He can play 1st line for us all year long but his production numbers will need to justify that if he's to stick there.

 

[Inferno]

Buch was a rookie and then a soap more the last two seasons. I think it’s natural progression that should take another step this season.

I'm starting a GoFundMe me to officially rename sophomore to soap more.

 

[kovazub94]

I'm starting a GoFundMe me to officially rename sophomore to soap more.

Rookie = rock year.

 

[Ori]

Rookie = rock year.

Yes, I`m very excited and it`s no pressure concerning the league table - I just hope they get the most out of it this year with a new coaching staff as well, and with hopefully much less injuries.

 

[Ola]

I'm starting a GoFundMe me to officially rename sophomore to soap more.

Is it spelled sophomore?? What does that word mean/come from anyway? Sophisticated something?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Is it spelled sophomore?? What does that word mean/come from anyway? Sophisticated something?

Wise Fool

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Is it spelled sophomore?? What does that word mean/come from anyway? Sophisticated something?

It comes from Greek sophos ‘wise’ and mōros ‘fool’

 

[Hunter Gathers]

So pretty much everyone agrees that Buchnevich has a very top tier skill level and talent that makes a potential of 1st liner impactful winger a realm of possibility.

Those posters who outright calls him lazy completely disregard the impact of his head injury or being yanked up and down the line up with least minutes on ice (by a coach who had only one way to deal with yutz). Did Buch look disengage toward the end of the season? Yeah. Was it due to laziness? Not how I see it.

Things that do concern me are certain indications of immaturity. Not spending enough time to work on his strength as part of his preparation to come over to the US. Similarly, he could’ve spent at least some time learning the language. You can see how smart he is in general (not just in hockey terms) based on how quickly he picked up English once he came over but from his own accounts it is clear that desk studying or hockey preparation away from ice is not his forte.

To me these are indications of immaturity - things that could be overcome with age and learning the value of working on important things that he doesn’t enjoy per se. And of course there’s a possibility that he never gets there and that would be a real shame.

Next season will be his 3rd in he NHL and it should show where he’s heading but I bet his 4th season is when he’d fully establish himself.

Agreed with most all of this. Regardless of him being lazy or not (I am honestly not sure), this next season is probably going to show us what Buch will be. He's either going to break out or remain a good-but-not-great player.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

At best I see him as a 2nd liner in terms of actual talent, though he would probably play on the 1st line looking at the assets this team has unless they get another high draft pick, and peak at the high 50s in points totals playing that role.

Fair enough. You are allowed to think what you want, I'm just pointing out that your opinion diverges from the points he scores.

Based on my calculations, there were 140 forwards last season in the NHL who scored more points per game than Buchnevich. That equates to about a middle tier 5th forward around the league points wise. And I know not every team has the same quality of forwards, but he isn't right on the border between a 6 and 7. I think the stats show he clearly is at least a top 6 forward when accounting for how much he scores per game. And then there's the factor that his minutes are absurdly low for a player who scores at a top 6 rate. I'm not going to bother to go through the minutes of every player, but I suspect there aren't more than a couple of players, if there are even any, who scored at a top 6 rate, yet played as little as Buchnevich did.

Maybe you agreed with his playing time or maybe not, but regardless, he's been at a disadvantage when trying to compile points compared to the other guys on that list because he plays less and PPG is a per game stat. If we use a per minute stat, points per 60, combining his first two seasons, he's 94th among forwards in P/60 around the league. There are 93 forwards in the NHL who play first line roles, so points wise, he's pretty much a low end first line forward when it comes to his efficiency in putting up points. Thats two seasons into his career. And here's where I refer back to the larger point I'm making. If he's producing points with the efficiency of a low-end first line player two seasons into his career, I personally don't understand the basis for saying he's unlikely to be a first line player or not a first line talent.

I guess everyone has their own measure of what constitutes a top line forward and maybe yours includes only 30 "top line forwards" around the league. Maybe in your definition, the Rangers don't have any top line forwards. I just find this type of discussion to be a little tedious. The same things are said about Kreider or Zibanejad or they were said about Stepan. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but statistically there's not really much of a basis to say Buchnevich isn't already a top 6 forward. And if we are going to use points-efficiency as a determinant for where everyone slots in, Buchnevich is right around the production of a first line forward. This is two seasons into his career, so even if he never improves, he statistically already produces right around what you say he's not.

 

[Siamese Dream]

Fair enough. You are allowed to think what you want, I'm just pointing out that your opinion diverges from the points he scores.

Based on my calculations, there were 140 forwards last season in the NHL who scored more points per game than Buchnevich. That equates to about a middle tier 5th forward around the league points wise. And I know not every team has the same quality of forwards, but he isn't right on the border between a 6 and 7. I think the stats show he clearly is at least a top 6 forward when accounting for how much he scores per game. And then there's the factor that his minutes are absurdly low for a player who scores at a top 6 rate. I'm not going to bother to go through the minutes of every player, but I suspect there aren't more than a couple of players, if there are even any, who scored at a top 6 rate, yet played as little as Buchnevich did.

Maybe you agreed with his playing time or maybe not, but regardless, he's been at a disadvantage when trying to compile points compared to the other guys on that list because he plays less and PPG is a per game stat. If we use a per minute stat, points per 60, combining his first two seasons, he's 94th among forwards in P/60 around the league. There are 93 forwards in the NHL who play first line roles, so points wise, he's pretty much a low end first line forward when it comes to his efficiency in putting up points. Thats two seasons into his career. And here's where I refer back to the larger point I'm making. If he's producing points with the efficiency of a low-end first line player two seasons into his career, I personally don't understand the basis for saying he's unlikely to be a first line player or not a first line talent.

I guess everyone has their own measure of what constitutes a top line forward and maybe yours includes only 30 "top line forwards" around the league. Maybe in your definition, the Rangers don't have any top line forwards. I just find this type of discussion to be a little tedious. The same things are said about Kreider or Zibanejad or they were said about Stepan. Everyone's entitled to their opinion, but statistically there's not really much of a basis to say Buchnevich isn't already a top 6 forward. And if we are going to use points-efficiency as a determinant for where everyone slots in, Buchnevich is right around the production of a first line forward. This is two seasons into his career, so even if he never improves, he statistically already produces right around what you say he's not.

I agree that he wasn't given as much ice time and usage as he deserved. Obviously his points totals would go up if he was given that but personally I just don't see him having that much more to give in terms of his development and points totals, in terms of offensive ability I think he's pretty much at his peak and can only score more points with better minutes and usage. I know he is only 23 but if you look at his development path he is very far along in his development after playing against men in the KHL for so long, so it's very different to a prospect who came up through the juniors. Don't the numbers show that most talented goal scorers tend to hit their peak in terms of production when they are quite young/early 20s? Then they develop the rest of their game as they mature and become more well-rounded as a player. That's how I see him, I can't ever see him scoring 70 points in the NHL unless he's playing on the wing with a generational/elite center.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I agree that he wasn't given as much ice time and usage as he deserved. Obviously his points totals would go up if he was given that but personally I just don't see him having that much more to give in terms of his development and points totals, in terms of offensive ability I think he's pretty much at his peak and can only score more points with better minutes and usage. I know he is only 23 but if you look at his development path he is very far along in his development after playing against men in the KHL for so long, so it's very different to a prospect who came up through the juniors. Don't the numbers show that most talented goal scorers tend to hit their peak in terms of production when they are quite young/early 20s? Then they develop the rest of their game as they mature and become more well-rounded as a player. That's how I see him, I can't ever see him scoring 70 points in the NHL unless he's playing on the wing with a generational/elite center.

Hard to know exactly. These are rough calculations since Corsica doesn't have custom query available, therefore I couldn't calculate his ice time per game for the first three months of the season compared to the full season season, so this might slightly under-inflate the numbers I'm about to mention since he played less the first three months compared to the second three months.

However, if he was to sustain his first three months production for the full season with 3rd forward ice time using last season's 3rd forward as the barometer for what 3rd forward ice time is, that equates to 63 points per season. That also is likely less than the real number that I can't figure out, as I mentioned. I think we saw a big difference in his play the first half of the season and the second half. I think if his peak is slightly better than what he showed the first half of the season, thats pretty close to 70 points with ice time that matches the production. But also maybe not. We'll have to wait and find out, but I think analyzing his contribution so far, the stats would show the potential is there. I also tend to agree with you that a 23 year old is pretty close to a finished product. I guess the point here is that his usage made it hard to actually know what the current product is. I think its unlikely that he'd improve much from the current product. Most 23 year olds don't.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Hard to know exactly. These are rough calculations since Corsica doesn't have custom query available, therefore I couldn't calculate his ice time per game for the first three months of the season compared to the full season season, so this might slightly under-inflate the numbers I'm about to mention since he played less the first three months compared to the second three months.

However, if he was to sustain his first three months production for the full season with 3rd forward ice time using last season's 3rd forward as the barometer for what 3rd forward ice time is, that equates to 63 points per season. That also is likely less than the real number that I can't figure out, as I mentioned. I think we saw a big difference in his play the first half of the season and the second half. I think if his peak is slightly better than what he showed the first half of the season, thats pretty close to 70 points with ice time that matches the production. But also maybe not. We'll have to wait and find out, but I think analyzing his contribution so far, the stats would show the potential is there. I also tend to agree with you that a 23 year old is pretty close to a finished product. I guess the point here is that his usage made it hard to actually know what the current product is. I think its unlikely that he'd improve much from the current product. Most 23 year olds don't.

Naturalstattrick has a custom date filter that'll let you look into this.

I did it from 10-01-17 to 12-31-17 just as a rough sketch based on what you were saying. Pavel played 38 games in this span, and he averaged 11:25 5v5 minutes per game (11th among forwards). However, the next closest players have 5, 24, and 27 more ES TOI/ game, so it's really on average a shift more.

I'd be cool trying to use him as a mismatch winger against depth pairings when we have the ability to do so, similar to what Sullivan did with Kessel on the HBK line. I'd prefer just to keep KZB together and hope that they start having the goal output match their on-ice performance.