Nurse extension still possible?

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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What is with this site and the sudden erasing of messages you’re typing? I think the last 4 paragraphs I’ve written on anything worthy have just disappeared and it’s been happening for months.

On mobile right? iPhone? It's super creepy.
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
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It will be very tough to fit him in next season. Holland will have to get creative.

Walking away from Turris, Koski, Lagesson, Archibald, Russell, Stalock frees up ~10M next offseason assuming Yama signs for 2M per. Add Nurse's 5.6M and its 15.5M to spend on Nurse, goalie, Pulju,McLeod and 4 additional active roster contracts. If Nurse takes 8.5M+ we are left with less than 7M for 7 roster spots which includes a good goalie, pulju and 5 others.

ooph.... that's bad.

Can someone explain how LTIR works in our situation? Right now we are sitting over the cap according to capfriendly, but that's permitted right, because we are using Klefbom's LTIR to replace him?

Essentially we can go 4.1M over the cap since we don't anticipate him back in the regular season, right?
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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Waterloo Ontario
ooph.... that's bad.

Can someone explain how LTIR works in our situation? Right now we are sitting over the cap according to capfriendly, but that's permitted right, because we are using Klefbom's LTIR to replace him?

Essentially we can go 4.1M over the cap since we don't anticipate him back in the regular season, right?

In the off season you can go 10% over the cap. So right now there is no LTIR for Klefbom. Ideally the Oilers will waive players to get just under the cap on day one and then put Klefbom on LTIR which is the way they get the most possible space. If they cannot do that they need to put Klefbom on out of season LTIR. This has slight disadvantages but is in effect the situation you described in your post.

The Oilers could probably waive Bouchard, Turris and Holloway to get under the cap at the beginning of the season. Then bring them back once they LTIR Klefbom.

I also wonder if they start the season with 8 defensemen.
 

bucks_oil

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Aug 25, 2005
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In the off season you can go 10% over the cap. So right now there is no LTIR for Klefbom. Ideally the Oilers will waive players to get just under the cap on day one and then put Klefbom on LTIR which is the way they get the most possible space. If they cannot do that they need to put Klefbom on out of season LTIR. This has slight disadvantages but is in effect the situation you described in your post.

The Oilers could probably waive Bouchard, Turris and Holloway to get under the cap at the beginning of the season. Then bring them back once they LTIR Klefbom.

I also wonder if they start the season with 8 defensemen.

Thanks, so then in a simplistic view, in response to @Draiskull... next summer rather than having only $7M for 7 roster spots including a new goalie, Pulju + 5 lower end players we'd effectively have $11.1M? That would help a lot... we likely still say goodbye to Kassian, but we could make it work if we can trade for an RFA-aged goalie.
 

Bank Shot

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Jan 18, 2006
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Thanks, so then in a simplistic view, in response to @Draiskull... next summer rather than having only $7M for 7 roster spots including a new goalie, Pulju + 5 lower end players we'd effectively have $11.1M? That would help a lot... we likely still say goodbye to Kassian, but we could make it work if we can trade for an RFA-aged goalie.
They could always trade for another injured guy next year and add even more room to their cap.
 

Fourier

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Dec 29, 2006
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They could always trade for another injured guy next year and add even more room to their cap.

That can get tricky. To benefit from this you need to actually get under the cap with these guys on the roster before adding them to LTIR. Unless you have a lot of guys to waive or some unsigned player with a big contract this is not always possible.
 
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Draiskull

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Oct 26, 2005
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Thanks, so then in a simplistic view, in response to @Draiskull... next summer rather than having only $7M for 7 roster spots including a new goalie, Pulju + 5 lower end players we'd effectively have $11.1M? That would help a lot... we likely still say goodbye to Kassian, but we could make it work if we can trade for an RFA-aged goalie.
Yeh we can make it work with a cheap goalie.

Edmonton Oilers Salary Cap, Draft Picks, and Player Contracts - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

We have 17.1M capspace with only 14 players on the active roster. 8F, 5D, 1G
Assume Klefbom goes back on LTIR (+4.1M) and Yama signs for (-2.2M) we are at 19M with 9F,4D, 1G.
Give Nurse his 9M and we are down to 10M.

Assume McLeod, Broberg, Samourkov, Benson, Archibald are retained at an average of 1M per, we will have 5M left for Pulju + Goalie + 2 extra roster players.
13F, 6D, 2G + 2 extra players

Bottom line, Kassian will have to go and we will still need ~7 players making 1M or less.
 

Magnum23

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Aug 24, 2012
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There are worse people to overpay than Nurse. I rather give him the extra million than try to attract a new FA that rarely works out (Sekera, Fayne, Foster, Lucic, Pouliot) Even the Koskinen, andKassian contracts are worse overpays than Nurse

At least we know Nurse can eat up minutes and at worst be a solid second pairing D.
 
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Trafalgar Sadge Law

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Nov 8, 2007
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There are worse people to overpay than Nurse. I rather give him the extra million than try to attract a new FA that rarely works out (Sekera, Fayne, Foster, Lucic, Pouliot) Even the Koskinen, andKassian contracts are worse overpays than Nurse

At least we know Nurse can eat up minutes and at worst be a solid second pairing D.
If Nurse regresses to a 2nd pairing dman for 9 million then it'll look just as bad as the Sekera/Lucic disasters.
 

Spawn

Something in the water
Feb 20, 2006
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That can get tricky. You need to actually get under the cap with these guys on the roster before adding them to LTIR. Unless you have a lot of guys to waive or some unsigned player with a big contract this is not always possible.

I don't believe this is true? I thought the league clarified this a couple seasons back. You can put a player on LTIR before the season starts. It just makes it harder to utilize that players full LTIR space. Tampa Bay started last season with over $17M on LTIR. There was no way they were cap compliant with those guys on the roster prior to adding them to LTIR.
 

Mr Positive

Cap Crunch Incoming
Nov 20, 2013
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either way, we need to re-sign Nurse soon imo.

I actually think we haven't seen his peak.

It's very curious to me, how so many people are saying that Nurse is bad defensively. Even Oiler fans. I know there are some stats to back that up, but context is on Nurse's side here.

The most underrated factor in defense is the forwards. We are deeper now, and have added to the top six and bottom six, and put priority on players who are two way players.

I think we will see Nurse suddenly "gain" defensive ability (edit and by that I mean the stats will swing his way). I see a player who is great at many skills involved in D and transition. Clearing the net, muscling for pucks, mobility, and more. Bet on this player.
 

Magnum23

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Aug 24, 2012
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If Nurse regresses to a 2nd pairing dman for 9 million then it'll look just as bad as the Sekera/Lucic disasters.

True regression is inevitable but Nurse is only 26, Sekera was 31 when he went down hill.

Also with that 9 million im not sure if we can sign anyone of Nurse’s calibre. We are not Tampa or Vegas or NY, hard to see top defenders lining up to live in Edmonton.
 
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Fourier

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I don't believe this is true? I thought the league clarified this a couple seasons back. You can put a player on LTIR before the season starts. It just makes it harder to utilize that players full LTIR space. Tampa Bay started last season with over $17M on LTIR. There was no way they were cap compliant with those guys on the roster prior to adding them to LTIR.
That is true. But you don't gain additional cap space if you do this. That was the point of the previous posters post in suggesting that they could trade for more LTIR relief. I modified my post to make this clearer.

Using off season LTIR actually makes life a litte harder.
 
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Hemsky4pm2

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Dec 2, 2017
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Too bad they didn't have the foresight to go 7M x 8yrs two off seasons ago. Going to cost much more in real $ and cap space now. It's manageble to pay Nurse 8.5 to 9M, but there's basically no room to manoeuvre with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Bouchard and the next group of RfAs to be.
 

Ementy

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May 11, 2010
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Too bad they didn't have the foresight to go 7M x 8yrs two off seasons ago. Going to cost much more in real $ and cap space now. It's manageble to pay Nurse 8.5 to 9M, but there's basically no room to manoeuvre with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Bouchard and the next group of RfAs to be.
That's not true at all, koski off the books next year (4.5m), pays for Nurse raise + leaves 1m left over. We have dead cap coming off (1.5 in 2 years and 1.9 in 4). and right now we have players like Turris eating 1.65 counted against us right now for 1 more year that will be gone, he might just get waived. Kassians 3.2m comes off in 3 years right when a raise would be due and if rumors are true he could be gone soon too in a trade. To top this off Klefboms 4.1 million will be gone next year and he might not play again, and if he does, I bet we can get him on a discount for a depth role) Keiths 5.5 m in 2 years

That's more than enough cash to pay those players, and any other who needs a raise.

That's 18.5 m after nurses raise (23.5m without his raise) of mostly usless cap coming in over the next 4 years (with 11.5 of it within the first 3) directly able to be used for raises or upgrading the net.

That doesn't include the other actually useful depth players like foegele (2.75), Archibald (1.5), Derek Ryan (1.2) and shore (1m) in that time plus cap going up say 1m a year.

That's pretty good shape to me
 
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Geardedandbearded

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May 29, 2019
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That's not true at all, koski off the books next year (4.5m), pays for Nurse raise + leaves 1m left over. We have dead cap coming off (1.5 in 2 years and 1.9 in 4). and right now we have players like Turris eating 1.65 counted against us right now for 1 more year that will be gone, he might just get waived. Kassians 3.2m comes off in 3 years right when a raise would be due and if rumors are true he could be gone soon too in a trade. To top this off Klefboms 4.1 million will be gone next year and he might not play again, and if he does, I bet we can get him on a discount for a depth role) Keiths 5.5 m in 2 years

That's more than enough cash to pay those players, and any other who needs a raise.

That's 18.5 m after nurses raise (23.5m without his raise) of mostly usless cap coming in over the next 4 years (with 11.5 of it within the first 3) directly able to be used for raises or upgrading the net.

That doesn't include the other actually useful depth players like foegele (2.75), Archibald (1.5), Derek Ryan (1.2) and shore (1m) in that time plus cap going up say 1m a year.

That's pretty good shape to me

We only have 6.7 million tied up in the goaltending position, I wouldn’t plan on allocating 4.5 of it to the d corp. That money is needed for koski’s replacement
 

LTIR

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Nov 8, 2013
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Too bad they didn't have the foresight to go 7M x 8yrs two off seasons ago. Going to cost much more in real $ and cap space now. It's manageble to pay Nurse 8.5 to 9M, but there's basically no room to manoeuvre with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Bouchard and the next group of RfAs to be.
Nurse was a punching bag two offseason ago so this place would have gone crazy if he was given 7x7 back then.
 

North Cole

♧ Lem
Jan 22, 2017
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On mobile right? iPhone? It's super creepy.
What is with this site and the sudden erasing of messages you’re typing? I think the last 4 paragraphs I’ve written on anything worthy have just disappeared and it’s been happening for months.

Damn, I'm missing out.

Just think, you are witnessing what happens to socks in the dryer and the things that fall into the couch, proof of the fourth dimension.
 
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Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
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The future cap numbers are starting to clear up. Here is a post that outlines a very plausible scenario:



I know the pandemic season had some to do with it, but how did the players ever allow the total escrow amount get to $1 billion... (edit: $1.3 billion)

That's more money than a few seasons' worth of the full cap for every team in the league.

Daily Faceoff's projections:

SEASONPROJ. SALARY CAPPROJ. REVENUEENDING ESCROW BAL
2021-22$81.5 MILLION$4.8 BILLION$1.3 BILLION
2022-23$82.5 MILLION$5.4 BILLION$0.98 BILLION
2023-24$83.5 MILLION$5.6 BILLION$0.63 BILLION
2024-25$84.5 MILLION$5.8 BILLION$0.20 BILLION
2025-26$85.5 MILLION$6 BILLIONPAID OFF
2026-27$91.4 MILLION$6.2 BILLIONN/A
[TBODY] [/TBODY]


The big jump would happen at the middle of an 8 year deal. After that point it would not be at all unreasonable to see the cap go up by at least $5M per year.
 

Magnum23

Registered User
Aug 24, 2012
2,476
2,185
Too bad they didn't have the foresight to go 7M x 8yrs two off seasons ago. Going to cost much more in real $ and cap space now. It's manageble to pay Nurse 8.5 to 9M, but there's basically no room to manoeuvre with Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Bouchard and the next group of RfAs to be.

I remember when people were crying when we signed Nurse for $5,600,000 lol
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,285
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That is true. But you don't gain additional cap space if you do this. That was the point of the previous posters post in suggesting that they could trade for more LTIR relief. I modified my post to make this clearer.

Using off season LTIR actually makes life a litte harder.

If Klef is out the entire season then there's no simple answer whether it's better to use training camp or day 1 LTIR on him.

It's simply a math equation to figure out which option yields the most space.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,445
19,582
Waterloo Ontario
If Klef is out the entire season then there's no simple answer whether it's better to use training camp or day 1 LTIR on him.

It's simply a math equation to figure out which option yields the most space.
I agree. But if he is the only one on LTIR they can get very close to teh upper limit on day 1 so I expect that ges them more space. My sense is that this would typically be the case when you have a number of small contracts that can be waived safely.
 

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