Nurse extension still possible?

oobga

Tier 2 Fan
Aug 1, 2003
22,936
17,813
Cale Makar is a whole level above Nurse. Nurse should be getting paid 1.5 mil less than Makar at a minimum

Only 2 UFA years in the Makar deal though. Nurse is walking to UFA now without another contract. I think Nurse is in an extremely strong negotiating position right now if he's interested in getting max value. That thanks to teams being ridiculous with recent other top name Dman contracts.
 

McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
17,790
13,182
Edmonton
Here’s an unpopular opinion. If he wants 9 and we don’t sign him by the start of the season then I’d rather trade him for a young D+, similar to the Trouba deal that Winnipeg did. It’s a set back but if you trade him during the season then his value will get less as he becomes more of a rental.

Would Colorado trade Byram for him? They’re a Cup favorite and Nurse could push them over the edge.
 

McFlash97

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
7,469
6,502
Here’s an unpopular opinion. If he wants 9 and we don’t sign him by the start of the season then I’d rather trade him for a young D+, similar to the Trouba deal that Winnipeg did. It’s a set back but if you trade him during the season then his value will get less as he becomes more of a rental.

Would Colorado trade Byram for him? They’re a Cup favorite and Nurse could push them over the edge.
Let's just be in a perpetual rebuild and trade players who are hitting their prime years to save a few dollars.

How about get a f***ing goalie and not break the bank for anyone other then the big 4.
 
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Niten Ichi Ryu

Registered User
Jul 1, 2018
1,699
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If we're signing him this off-season, then Chicago, New Jersey and Columbus have set the benchmark. 9M+ is the current rate for your top pairing #1 defenseman, even if he's in the 2nd or 3rd tier in the NHL. Imo, 9M is the tier of Hedman and Makar. 6M+ was the going rate until the extensions of Jones and Werenski and the signing of Hamilton, which has shifted the market massively in their favor.

If I'm Darnell's agent, my job is to maximize his worth and take advantage of opportunities. He had a fantastic season, Norris caliber consistent play that has taken a step in almost every facet of his game. But we've seen it happen countless times, what if next season isn't so pretty? What if regresses a bit in some areas, struggles at times or has injury trouble? Now his worth has declined. What if the market corrects itself and the going rate goes back a mil or two? All scenarios that are realistic. So if I'm his agent, I'm telling him to extend now. If they're willing to pay 9M+ on an 8 year term, this is an opportunity you cannot gamble with. In 5 years (1 more UFA year and the rumored 4 year contract), he'll be 31. We don't know where his game will be at by then, and I doubt teams will want to commit 9M+ long term to a 31 year old defenseman, that's probably not in that 1st tier (yet).

Imo, 9M+ AAV would be an overpayment, but not by much. And we know the supposed added premium needed to play in Edmonton. If the market remains the same, there will be handfuls of teams that would be willing to pay Nurse that 9M+/8yr deal. He's an asset we cannot lose, and I hope we hear about an extension before the seasons starts, so there isn't any drama or speculation to distract him, or us. Prediction, 60M/7yr extension (8.571M AAV)
 

McShogun99

Registered User
Aug 30, 2009
17,790
13,182
Edmonton
Let's just be in a perpetual rebuild and trade players who are hitting their prime years to save a few dollars.

How about get a f***ing goalie and not break the bank for anyone other then the big 4.

Id rather sign Nurse but if the ask is 9 and he won’t budge then you have to consider it. You can gamble and let him play out the year but then have nothing to show for it if he decides to leave.
 

McFlash97

Registered User
Oct 10, 2017
7,469
6,502
Id rather sign Nurse but if the ask is 9 and he won’t budge then you have to consider it. You can gamble and let him play out the year but then have nothing to show for it if he decides to leave.
He will accept 8.5 it's the high starting point for negotiations. Nurse knows. Get him locked up and worry about a goaltender. These idiots decided to skip over Wallstedt who in 3 years is going to be putting up solid NHL numbers.
 

Magnum23

Registered User
Aug 24, 2012
2,476
2,185
Here’s an unpopular opinion. If he wants 9 and we don’t sign him by the start of the season then I’d rather trade him for a young D+, similar to the Trouba deal that Winnipeg did. It’s a set back but if you trade him during the season then his value will get less as he becomes more of a rental.

Would Colorado trade Byram for him? They’re a Cup favorite and Nurse could push them over the edge.

He has us by the balls, if we don't sign Nurse, McDavid and Drai will leave sooner than expected.

We might have to overpay for Nurse so we dont waste another 2-3 prime years of McDrai. Keep nurse for as long as possible otherwise, our dreams of 97 getting us a cup is likely done in 3-4 years.
 

McCombo

Registered User
Nov 16, 2013
1,100
532
Here’s an unpopular opinion. If he wants 9 and we don’t sign him by the start of the season then I’d rather trade him for a young D+, similar to the Trouba deal that Winnipeg did. It’s a set back but if you trade him during the season then his value will get less as he becomes more of a rental.

Would Colorado trade Byram for him? They’re a Cup favorite and Nurse could push them over the edge.
I think Colorado needs Byram's cheap years. ELC contract and the next one isn't likely that expensive either.
 
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Akrapovince

Registered User
May 19, 2017
3,618
3,858
Just pointing this out, I understand Ottawa and Edmonton are in two complete different stratospheres when it comes to cap availability and play off contention but..

I think a lot of fans are happy with the contract we gave to Chabot, if you look at Nurse I don’t see how you would be unhappy if he gets Chabot money if he continues his play.

Would’ve been nice for him to emerge as a true #1 a year earlier so you guys could’ve seen if he could repeat before his pending UFA status.
 

Fourier

Registered User
Dec 29, 2006
25,444
19,580
Waterloo Ontario
Id rather sign Nurse but if the ask is 9 and he won’t budge then you have to consider it. You can gamble and let him play out the year but then have nothing to show for it if he decides to leave.

That is a gamble you will lose on the vast majority of the time. At the end of the year he still has the same or even greater leverage. And next year he will be one of the top 4 UFA defensemen if he hits the market and that is only if Parayko, Lindholm and Rielly don't sign. But if he duplicates this year he could well be the top UFA available regardless of position. If he has a "poor year" you would still be looking at $8M so if you could get him to sign an 8 year $8.5M deal right now you pretty much have to do it. There is not way this team could take such a big step back as would happen by losing Nurse. He's not an ideal #1 but he is by far the closest they have to such a beast.
 
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DingerMcSlapshot

Registered User
Dec 1, 2017
1,316
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He has us by the balls, if we don't sign Nurse, McDavid and Drai will leave sooner than expected.

We might have to overpay for Nurse so we dont waste another 2-3 prime years of McDrai. Keep nurse for as long as possible otherwise, our dreams of 97 getting us a cup is likely done in 3-4 years.
The whole Oiler core could be gone in a few years. If the Oilers aren't smart and continue to flounder in the post season.
 
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Jimmi McJenkins

Sometimes miracles
Jan 12, 2006
74,837
33,595
Alberta
Yeah I think it would as well. I think you don't do the extension this off-season, as Nurse is very unlikely to repeat his season from last year.
If this is true, and I don't know either way, but if you feel this way about Nurse and his game, the team would have to explore moving him and replacing him. Because you can't let him walk, but you really can't overpay him either if his game isn't at the level where the dollars are.
 

bucks_oil

Registered User
Aug 25, 2005
8,328
4,513
If we're signing him this off-season, then Chicago, New Jersey and Columbus have set the benchmark. 9M+ is the current rate for your top pairing #1 defenseman, even if he's in the 2nd or 3rd tier in the NHL. Imo, 9M is the tier of Hedman and Makar. 6M+ was the going rate until the extensions of Jones and Werenski and the signing of Hamilton, which has shifted the market massively in their favor.

If I'm Darnell's agent, my job is to maximize his worth and take advantage of opportunities. He had a fantastic season, Norris caliber consistent play that has taken a step in almost every facet of his game. But we've seen it happen countless times, what if next season isn't so pretty? What if regresses a bit in some areas, struggles at times or has injury trouble? Now his worth has declined. What if the market corrects itself and the going rate goes back a mil or two? All scenarios that are realistic. So if I'm his agent, I'm telling him to extend now. If they're willing to pay 9M+ on an 8 year term, this is an opportunity you cannot gamble with. In 5 years (1 more UFA year and the rumored 4 year contract), he'll be 31. We don't know where his game will be at by then, and I doubt teams will want to commit 9M+ long term to a 31 year old defenseman, that's probably not in that 1st tier (yet).

Imo, 9M+ AAV would be an overpayment, but not by much. And we know the supposed added premium needed to play in Edmonton. If the market remains the same, there will be handfuls of teams that would be willing to pay Nurse that 9M+/8yr deal. He's an asset we cannot lose, and I hope we hear about an extension before the seasons starts, so there isn't any drama or speculation to distract him, or us. Prediction, 60M/7yr extension (8.571M AAV)

I think this is bang on. The only part I disagree with: I don't see how the market "correcting" is likely or possible. To say so would be to imply that the market is incorrect... that a #1D isn't worth $9M. I'd have a hard time arguing that to be the case.

I like your target contract and I think really anything with an 8 in front of it and term is a good deal for the Oilers. There is some risk of regression (moreso because the competition was limited this season, likely easier to defend on a nightly basis against teams you know very well), but if continues improving each year as he has been, he is a guy you can't afford to lose with a very unique skillset. And most likely his best years are still ahead of him as he continues to mature and gain experience. He's becoming a very low event player... the decision making with the puck is safe and controlled. He still has a bit of work to do away from the puck, but he took a big step there this year.

For me, prime aged Nurse will be 26 to 32... it's a bit of a weird comparable, but I imagine prime Jason Smith with infinitely better skating and a first pass. And to highlight the importance of experience for D, I remind the old-timers around here that we only just acquired Smith from Toronto at the age Nurse is now.
 

yukoner88

Registered User
Dec 16, 2009
19,665
23,655
Dawson City, YT
I had such a vivid dream that Nurse was signed to a 7.5M x 5 yrs that i legit thought it was real and it took me back to see this thread.


Fingers crossed that it was a supernatural future dimensional time ribbon fracture thing that i experienced
 

Magnum23

Registered User
Aug 24, 2012
2,476
2,185
The whole Oiler core could be gone in a few years. If the Oilers aren't smart and continue to flounder in the post season.

Exactly which is why I put a huge emphasis on the next 3-4 years instead of years 6-8 on these contracts. Hyman and Nuge's contract will probably suck by then, but who cares if 29,97,25 are all gone.

By then we will have plenty of cap anyways.

Id rather sign Nurse but if the ask is 9 and he won’t budge then you have to consider it. You can gamble and let him play out the year but then have nothing to show for it if he decides to leave.

9 would be overpay but I say we have to do it! He is our Keith, if Chicago didn't over-extend to keep him with Kane/Toews they wouldn't have gotten more cups.

If Nurse is gone in 1 year, no way 29,97 extends imo!
 
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Magnum23

Registered User
Aug 24, 2012
2,476
2,185
It would be a huge L , if we don't extend Nurse more than 4 years.

Might have to overpay but if he wants to stay here give it to him.

IF we don't extend him I highly doubt we save much cap space - as we will need to overpay to lure another defenseman to come here.
 

Magnum23

Registered User
Aug 24, 2012
2,476
2,185
I doubted Nurse for a long time and I didn't think he would develop into anything close to a #1, but he did. At this point I would be happy with a 8 year deal, even if it's in the high 8s or 9s. It's steep, but he's worth it.

Exactly, also if he wants to stay here give him the bread!

People saying 8 or 9 is too much is acting like we don't have to overpay for mediocre defenseman to come here (Sekera, Nikitin, Fayne, Foster)
 

Draiskull

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
23,320
2,160
It will be very tough to fit him in next season. Holland will have to get creative.

Walking away from Turris, Koski, Lagesson, Archibald, Russell, Stalock frees up ~10M next offseason assuming Yama signs for 2M per. Add Nurse's 5.6M and its 15.5M to spend on Nurse, goalie, Pulju,McLeod and 4 additional active roster contracts. If Nurse takes 8.5M+ we are left with less than 7M for 7 roster spots which includes a good goalie, pulju and 5 others.
 

McGoMcD

Registered User
Aug 14, 2005
15,688
668
Edmonton, AB
I think like with every one else you sign him long term to keep the AVV down. I think you can make a strong case he does not deserve Jones, Werenski etc money. Remember he got points on a powerplay that had Drai and McDavid. I mean Barrie never even thought to ask for 9 mill or whatever, and he led the league in points. So bottom line you adjust for the McD Drai factor. I think 8x8 would be the deal we will see. Maybe even 8 years and 7.5 mill AVV. If Nurse wants to hold out for more, would be a shame, but you let him walk or trade him.
 

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