Confirmed Trade: [NSH/MIN] Mikael Granlund for Kevin Fiala

[Bazeek]

Here it is:


This is basically the same as the other 2 big trades Fenton has made (Nino and Coyle). I started thinking this would be the case after the senseless Nino-Rask trade, and now it's confirmed.

And if anyone is wondering, this is the case: what you are seeing here is a lifelong SCOUT turned into a manager (=businessman). He sees things very binary. He sees a player, he likes a player, he picks him. That's it. That's what he has done all his career. The whole business side of things doesn't exist for him. You know, the thing that's the manager's primary responsibility. Like for example creating bidding wars and extracting the max value out of your assets.

Fenton, a scout, sees players. What a competent manager should see, is assets. A big difference.

Keep this in mind whenever a scout is promoted into leading an organisation. VERY different skillsets, and you see the results of that here. "He did not ask the Predators to include a draft pick". Can't imagine a more telling sentence of someone being unqualified to be a manager.

The flip side to this is that the game actually gets played by players, not assets. We talk all the time about guys that will get too much in free agency because they put up big numbers in an advantageous situation, but inevitably won't live up to their next contract. Their value as an asset > their value as a player. Fenton's obviously trying to do the opposite: identify specific players that have the skills, talent and drive to be better than the players he's giving up, but just need time and opportunity.

As an example: with the Granlund trade the other name that came up was Eeli Tolvanen. Say that Fenton was presented with two options: Tolvanen+1st, or Fiala straight across. Conventional wisdom on the boards says that a bluechip prospect and a 1st is better value than Fiala alone, but if Fiala's the guy Fenton seems to think he is and Tolvanen never puts it together he absolutely made the right choice by taking "worse value." The scout's eyes win there.

I have no idea if that's how it'll work out, but I do think there's a danger in getting too hung up on "value."

 

[absolute garbage]

The flip side to this is that the game actually gets played by players, not assets. We talk all the time about guys that will get too much in free agency because they put up big numbers in an advantageous situation, but inevitably won't live up to their next contract. Their value as an asset > their value as a player. Fenton's obviously trying to do the opposite: identify specific players that have the skills, talent and drive to be better than the players he's giving up, but just need time and opportunity.

As an example: with the Granlund trade the other name that came up was Eeli Tolvanen. Say that Fenton was presented with two options: Tolvanen+1st, or Fiala straight across. Conventional wisdom on the boards says that a bluechip prospect and a 1st is better value than Fiala alone, but if Fiala's the guy Fenton seems to think he is and Tolvanen never puts it together he absolutely made the right choice by taking "worse value." The scout's eyes win there.

I have no idea if that's how it'll work out, but I do think there's a danger in getting too hung up on "value."

Tolvanen is certainly no bluechip prospect nor is late 1st a big deal. To me taking Fiala was in fact a lot better value.

But that's not the point I was making. Even if you really like Fiala and target him because you think he will be a really good player (which I think is mistaken but we'll see), a competent manager would be able to extract more assets in a trade like this because of the value discrepancy. A scout wouldn't. He would just like Fiala and pick him. Which Fenton's previous moves and that quote also proves.

 

[exporta]

Here it is:


This is basically the same as the other 2 big trades Fenton has made (Nino and Coyle). I started thinking this would be the case after the senseless Nino-Rask trade, and now it's confirmed.

And if anyone is wondering, this is the case: what you are seeing here is a lifelong SCOUT turned into a manager (=businessman). He sees things very binary. He sees a player, he likes a player, he picks him. That's it. That's what he has done all his career. The whole business side of things doesn't exist for him. You know, the thing that's the manager's primary responsibility. Like for example creating bidding wars and extracting the max value out of your assets.

Fenton, a scout, sees players. What a competent manager should see, is assets. A big difference.

Keep this in mind whenever a scout is promoted into leading an organisation. VERY different skillsets, and you see the results of that here. "He did not ask the Predators to include a draft pick". Can't imagine a more telling sentence of someone being unqualified to be a manager.

I think you are forgetting that cap space is an asset.

Fiala is rfa, but likely will come in under Granlunds 5.75/aav and is rfa where granlund is UFA in the summer of 2020.

Those are both asset management considerations.

 

[rynryn]

except fenton said once (then contradicted himself later) that cap space wasn't a consideration. which is foolish. I'm sure the contract differences factored into the trade for both GMs . I hope so, anyway.

 

[absolute garbage]

I think you are forgetting that cap space is an asset.

Fiala is rfa, but likely will come in under Granlunds 5.75/aav and is rfa where granlund is UFA in the summer of 2020.

Those are both asset management considerations.

It sure is an asset, but paying 5.75M for a 70p player is great use of that asset. We'll see what Fiala's next contract looks like and whether he'll be overpaid or not (if you assume Fenton overrates 'his guy' Fiala as badly in the contract negotiations as he did in this trade negotiation, he might get badly overpaid), but Granlund was worth every penny. You want those kind of contracts to take away your cap. Very good value.

 

[Bazeek]

Tolvanen is certainly no bluechip prospect nor is late 1st a big deal. To me taking Fiala was in fact a lot better value.

But that's not the point I was making. Even if you really like Fiala and target him because you think he will be a really good player (which I think is mistaken but we'll see), a competent manager would be able to extract more assets in a trade like this because of the value discrepancy. A scout wouldn't. He would just like Fiala and pick him. Which Fenton's previous moves and that quote also proves.

I generally agree and said as much when the trade was announced, but I'm also a little skeptical. Especially in this specific situation, where Fenton and Poile are both well aware of not only the player, but one another's opinion of the player. It doesn't seem like a situation where bluffing or waiting the other guy out is likely to work, so if Fenton puts his foot down about that extra pick it's likely he ends up dealing with another team.

I don't really blame anyone for coming to conclusions about Fenton after three big trades, but I'm still sort of in wait-and-see mode personally. Especially when it comes to asset management.

 

[absolute garbage]

I generally agree and said as much when the trade was announced, but I'm also a little skeptical. Especially in this specific situation, where Fenton and Poile are both well aware of not only the player, but one another's opinion of the player. It doesn't seem like a situation where bluffing or waiting the other guy out is likely to work, so if Fenton puts his foot down about that extra pick it's likely he ends up dealing with another team.

I don't really blame anyone for coming to conclusions about Fenton after three big trades, but I'm still sort of in wait-and-see mode personally. Especially when it comes to asset management.

It was pretty obvious that Granlund was Poile's back-up plan if he can't get Stone. Beyond Granlund, I fail to see what else Poile could've done to improve his Cup contending team significantly this deadline. The onus here was 100% on Poile to make a move. Fenton was in a perfect position because unlike with upcoming UFAs, keeping Granlund would've been completely fine as well. So Wild had a ton of leverage there.

And you see the man say it himself. "I didn't ask for a pick". Didn't even bother to try to get more assets. I think he said the same thing after the Nino deal. That's so f***ing bad.

 

[Bazeek]

It was pretty obvious that Granlund was Poile's back-up plan if he can't get Stone. Beyond Granlund, I fail to see what else Poile could've done to improve his Cup contending team significantly this deadline. The onus here was 100% on Poile to make a move. Fenton was in a perfect position because unlike with upcoming UFAs, keeping Granlund would've been completely fine as well. So Wild had a ton of leverage there.

And you see the man say it himself. "I didn't ask for a pick". Didn't even bother to try to get more assets. I think he said the same thing after the Nino deal. That's so ****ing bad.

Yeah and I don't want to veer into making excuses for Fenton because I agree with you overall. Angling for an extra pick was the right move here. Mostly I'm just trying to maintain some perspective

 

[exporta]

It sure is an asset, but paying 5.75M for a 70p player is great use of that asset. We'll see what Fiala's next contract looks like and whether he'll be overpaid or not (if you assume Fenton overrates 'his guy' Fiala as badly in the contract negotiations as he did in this trade negotiation, he might get badly overpaid), but Granlund was worth every penny. You want those kind of contracts to take away your cap. Very good value.

You are still ignoring that he is ufa in 2020.

 

[Aurinko]

It was pretty obvious that Granlund was Poile's back-up plan if he can't get Stone. Beyond Granlund, I fail to see what else Poile could've done to improve his Cup contending team significantly this deadline. The onus here was 100% on Poile to make a move. Fenton was in a perfect position because unlike with upcoming UFAs, keeping Granlund would've been completely fine as well. So Wild had a ton of leverage there.

And you see the man say it himself. "I didn't ask for a pick". Didn't even bother to try to get more assets. I think he said the same thing after the Nino deal. That's so ****ing bad.

The question is what do the Preds need?

If you only look at the stats, in the last few years Granlund has actually performed better than Stone:

2017-18
Granlund 67pts, 18:47 min TOI
Stone 62pts, 20:40 min TOI

If the option for Poile was to pay Stone 76M$ for a contract and give up a top prospect, I can't blame him for going with the "back-up" plan.

 

[triggrman]

You are still ignoring that he is ufa in 2020.

So Preds get a year and a half to get a contract worked out?

 

[Bazeek]

So Preds get a year and a half to get a contract worked out?

It's more a matter of how much Nashville's willing to commit to what Granlund brings them. I don't think he'll be hard to re-sign at all if they're mostly on the same page.

 

[triggrman]

It's more a matter of how much Nashville's willing to commit to what Granlund brings them. I don't think he'll be hard to re-sign at all if they're mostly on the same page.

Hopefully it all works out. We for sure needed more top end talent up front.

 

[AKL]

I’m hoping we can get Fiala locked up long term to a real nice AAV. Something like 6+ years at 4.5-5M

 

[Enoch]

I think Minnesota will be happy with the return. They wouldn’t have gotten a Fiala return in 2 months.

 

[Joey Moss]

I think Minnesota will be happy with the return. They wouldn’t have gotten a Fiala return in 2 months.

I agree. I actually think it's a good pro active move by Fenton.

Granlund has a year left after this. Ottawa didn't get a player like Fiala in the Karlsson deal.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

How'd Granny look vs. St. Louis? Wish him luck whenever he's not playing against us. Always admired his work ethic - he comes back better after every offseason.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

How'd Granny look vs. St. Louis?

Nonexistent

 

[AKL]

Nonexistent

Didn't even notice him out there. Almost like he didn't even play.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

Didn't even notice him out there. Almost like he didn't even play.

Well, now I feel a bit silly.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Well, now I feel a bit silly.

Chin up. You still get an A for your username.

 

[turkulad]

Granlund better be given the benefit of the doubt at least for a few game. He just became a dad and was traded for the first time at the same time. Slight disorientation can be definitely expected..

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

Granlund better be given the benefit of the doubt at least for a few game. He just became a dad and was traded for the first time at the same time. Slight disorientation can be definitely expected..

We currently have a bunch of other garbage on the team right now, so if he plays like it he'll fit right in and if he doesn't then he'll look like Gretzky.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

Granlund better be given the benefit of the doubt at least for a few game. He just became a dad and was traded for the first time at the same time. Slight disorientation can be definitely expected..

I do think he might take a little while to gel with his new teammates - his game is all about distributing the puck, so it might take him a few games to figure out where his linemates are. That said, he's going to be a great player in Nashville - we will miss him.

 

[behemolari]

I do think he might take a little while to gel with his new teammates - his game is all about distributing the puck, so it might take him a few games to figure out where his linemates are. That said, he's going to be a great player in Nashville - we will miss him.

Looked just was expected at PP, for some reason was playing LW with bunch of right handed shooters