Speculation: Now what do we do? - Part 3

TampaJay

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Jan 16, 2016
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Exactly. Reality.

Or some alternate reality where

1. Every overpaid vet agrees to waive their hard earned NMC/NTC clause
2. Other GMs lose their minds and agree to take the overpaid players without any salary retained.
3. Then all the guys who deserve big raises agree to big discounts.
4. Then all the prospects on ELC that replace the lost players pan out.

Ok. Sure.
 

garmonbozia

Registered User
Jan 10, 2006
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Funny how the people who preach "Yzerman will figure it all out" only ever speak in vague generalities. Those of us who don't view everything through rose colored glasses and who have actually done the math have a much more realistic view of things, and in that realistic view we're going to be losing people we really don't want to lose.

I only use generalities because the entire process is HUGELY variable. Projecting the future of 30+ players per team, plus 30 other teams trade values and needs, plus contract values signed, plus possible buyouts...etc. etc. There are tons and tons of different ways for all of it to shake out, but, the basic premise remains the same.

Putting the thoughts more math-y, look at the situation additively:

Palat(5.75)** - Johnson(5.75)** - Kucherov(5.25)*
Drouin(5.25)* - Stamkos (8.5) - Callahan (5.8)*******
Killorn (4.45) - Namestnikov (1.958) - Brown (1.25)
????? - Paquette (.812) - Condra (1.25)

Hedman (7.875) - Stralman (4.5)*****
Koekkoek (2)**** - Coburn (3.7)******
????? - Sustr (3.5)***

Vasilevki
?????

Starting with those under contract for 17/18 who will likely be back; Stamkos, Killorn, Brown, Namestnikov, Paquettte, Condra, Hedman, and Vasi at a total cap hit of $29.575Million.

*Bridge Kucherov and Drouin, they're divying up about $10.5 million in cap space on 2 or 3 year deals that see them still restricted on the other end. Sure it's cheaper overall to sign them long term now. The cap structure of the rest of the team just doesn't allow it, yet. But it will in 2-3 years. I think Kucherov gets higher AAV than Drouin. It's not the worst thing to delay their big pay day until their next deal. Much could change in their own games or the team structure overall in those 2-3 years. Worst case scenario, one costs us the other down the road when unable to afford both. That time isn't now. For now pencil both Kucherov and Drouin in at a combined $10.5 for a total $40.075.

**Cannibalize Filppula's cap hit into Johnson and Palat's raises. Whether trade, expansion draft, waiver claim, or buyout Filppula will be gone because Tyler and Drej made him an affordable luxury two seasons ago. Now that they're ready and deserving of making more and it will come at the expense of the luxury that was Filppula. Buyout or trade return cap ramifications will be dealt with via other means. For discussion purposes divy Filppula's $5 M on top of Johnson and Palat. Average them at $5.75 each realizing there may be a disparity between their next contracts depending on how each plays next year. I don't see either wanting to rock the boat or jump ship via offer sheet, they genuinely seem to love and respect the opportunities they've earned in this organization to date. Adding $11.5 for both combined raises the total to $51.575.

***Sustr keeps slowly progressing. Doesn't stick out enough to merit a monster raise, plays enough meaningful minutes to merit a decent raise should it go to arbitration. Settles on a 2 or 3 year deal in the $3.5 area. Total = $55.075

****Koekkoek gets a similar 2 or 3 year bridge deal similar to what Sustr is coming off of, sub $2 M AAV. Total = $57.075

At this point the young, future moving core is re-signed. Hypothetically, I'll project a cap increase of $2.5 M. Only basing this increase on the addition of Vegas, dividing the current $73 M by 31 teams adds $2,354,838. A nominal increase in other aspects rounds it off to $2.5. I realize this is a BIG variable. There is no guarantee the cap will grow. Nor is their anyway to accurately predict how much it will if it does. That said I think +$2.5 M is a conservative estimate of cap growth that is at least somewhat realistic. So Total cap space $75 million minus $57.075 of the above outlined core leaves $17.925 to fill 2 wingers, 3 defensemen, and a backup goalie. Now look what we can do with the remainder as relates to other veterans currently under contract.

*****Stralman provides incredible value as a top pairing defenseman at $4.5 M. His contract length coincides nicely with the need to one day give Kucherov and/or Drouin bigger raises than the bridge deals suggested above. He has a role, value, and fills a need. Of all the vets I think he's the first most would like to retain, myself included. Keeping his $4.5 brings the total to $61.575.

******Coburn I think stays for similar reasons to Stralman. His re-signing at a lesser amount demonstrated how much he wants to stay and play for this team. His role versus his cost mean he is not terrible value over replacement. Say Coburn stays at his $3.7 M, bringing the total to $65.275 leaving about $9.725 to fill 2 wings, 1 defenseman, and 1 back up goalie.

*******CALLAHANSANITY!!! Elephant in the room, skeleton in the closet, biggest thorn in the team salary structure's side. Fitting his $5.8 in on top of all above only leaves $3.925 to fill the 3 remaining holes with AHL promotions that aren't ready, reclamation projects, and/or washed up has-beens. Dumpster diving du jour. Callahan has the ability to come back and contribute significantly. He also has leverage in determining his future via his NMC. To fit him in, by necessity, means losing Coburn and/or Stralman to compensate and have enough to fill the remaining holes. If able to move Callahan's salary out we could re-sign Boyle, let Garrison play out his contract, and still have enough space to fill the final wing and BU goalie holes. Moving Callahan out at little cap cost going forward is the biggest, most fairy tale-esque part of the entire equation. If Callahan wants to remain, he will. Personally, I expect he is gone before the start of the 2017/18 season. Just business.

********Garrison - buyout as last resort. Incredibly cheap buyout for benefit ratio. $2.5 M dollars owed means his buyout would cost ~$825 k the next two years, clearing $3.674 M cap space in 17/18 for a cap penalty of $825k in 18/19. I think it far more likely Garrison gets traded after the season to one of the teams that lose a valuable top 4 defenseman in the expansion draft for non-cap relevant futures. A shame since he does a good job and we don't have a ready replacement, again, just business.

*********Boyle - would love to bring him back to push Paquette back to the wing or off the team. If he's willing to stay on another discount deal (-$2.5M a season) AND Callahan's cap hit gets opened up then I think both sides work things out to keep it going.

10*Assuming the three remaining holes (1W, 1D, 1G)are filled with AHL promotions ~$900k each that leaves $1.225 M.


TLDR: Easiest way out is finding an exit from Callahan's contract. All other pieces are fluid enough value wise to not hinder keeping the core together even if forced to keep Cally. Sacrificing the vet deals allow keeping the core.





CAVEAT: I know nothing, and all of the above are only my opinions. I don't think they're entirely unrealistic nor uncharacteristic of the generality of how good teams renew their rosters around core elements that they commit to and how they transition from one core to the next. My only leap of faith involves believing that Yzerman has already shown himself to be quite skilled putting cap compliant rosters together capable of competing, and expecting that to continue.
 

Stammertime91

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I only use generalities because the entire process is HUGELY variable.


CAVEAT: I know nothing, and all of the above are only my opinions. I don't think they're entirely unrealistic nor uncharacteristic of the generality of how good teams renew their rosters around core elements that they commit to and how they transition from one core to the next. My only leap of faith involves believing that Yzerman has already shown himself to be quite skilled putting cap compliant rosters together capable of competing, and expecting that to continue.

Agreed. Just cause you "do the math" doesn't give you a greater opinion on the situation at hand. Like you said there are so many moves that are possible that it's moot to even argue who should stay or not given we barely know anything behind the scenes. We still don't know if Ben is a bolt come October. Sure it looks like he will be but that's not a guarantee. It's wide open depending on the status of Flip, Bishop, what they do with Garrison, KK's development, Vasy, depth, etc. There's a lot that can change between now and next summers crunch time

I agree with a lot of your hypotheticals. Easily can see a lot of those playing out. Basically our biggest problem is Callahan and he will already have a shortened year and no camp. If he could bounce back and make the contract a little more appealing I don't see how he isn't movable at that point. We would probably retain a little but it alleviates enough to possibly keep Boyle and afford the KK raise or a backup, etc.

"Doing the math" is pointless this far out.
 

CupsOverCash

Registered User
Jun 16, 2009
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7,092
Well if we aren't able to keep the gang together somebody will have to go. It sounds like it will be one of Johnson, Killorn, Palat, or Drouin.

Pros and cons of them all

Johnson:

Pros - he's been one of our most consistent clutch players in the playoffs.

Cons - he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Especially when we need him most.

Killorn:

Pros - another clutch player and I believe he still has another level to his game when he is more consistent in top 6.

Cons - hasn't been consistent performer in the regular season.

Palat:

Pros - has the size and skill that is so valuable to this team.

Cons - doesn't bring enough scoring in the playoffs.

Drouin:

Pros - he showed us his potential in the playoffs. He can be special.

Cons - contract demands could be high if he has a big season.

It's not an easy decision to make if it has to come to it. Happy that SY has to make the decision and not me. He will most likely leave Killorn unprotected and hope that Vegas takes him. Bishop will be off the books. Probably will trade Garrison. That's about 14 mil to sign Palat, Johnson and Drouin. You have to think that the cap will go up a bit. Boyle is off the books. Maybe we can trade Filppula. That's another 5 mil right there. Look I'll be shocked if SY can lock all of them up long term but something in me says he gets it done. Or he find a way to make our team better by trading one of them and make us better in the long run. Believe in the Yzerplan!!
 

garmonbozia

Registered User
Jan 10, 2006
905
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Agreed. Just cause you "do the math" doesn't give you a greater opinion on the situation at hand. Like you said there are so many moves that are possible that it's moot to even argue who should stay or not given we barely know anything behind the scenes. We still don't know if Ben is a bolt come October. Sure it looks like he will be but that's not a guarantee. It's wide open depending on the status of Flip, Bishop, what they do with Garrison, KK's development, Vasy, depth, etc. There's a lot that can change between now and next summers crunch time

I agree with a lot of your hypotheticals. Easily can see a lot of those playing out. Basically our biggest problem is Callahan and he will already have a shortened year and no camp. If he could bounce back and make the contract a little more appealing I don't see how he isn't movable at that point. We would probably retain a little but it alleviates enough to possibly keep Boyle and afford the KK raise or a backup, etc.

"Doing the math" is pointless this far out.

Your reply reminds me that I didn't address Bishop at all. Mainly, I think his cap hit has already been cannibalized into Hedman and Vasi's raises ($50k difference). The downgrade from Bish/Vasi to Vasi/Cheap Backup has the capacity to be more detrimental than all the other losses combined. As much as keeping Bish seems an impossibility, I am not convinced Yzerman won't try. Obviously it would require Callahan and Coburn be replaced with far inferior talent on top of the expected departures of Flip, Garrison, and Boyle to cover RFA raises. We don't have internal prospect depth to adequately replace ALL the vets except Stralman and Bishop as soon as next season (especially on defense). If Bishop wins a Vezina, Hart, Cup, and/or Conn Smythe it will be extremely difficult to just walk away, even with Vasilevski getting paid more. I suppose if we re-sign Bish we'd then move Vasi somewhere he might start. As silly as that seems having just extended Vasi, Bish could easily make it worthwhile if he continues performing at an elite level.
 

MattM92

Registered User
Dec 8, 2010
6,925
516
FL
Well if we aren't able to keep the gang together somebody will have to go. It sounds like it will be one of Johnson, Killorn, Palat, or Drouin.

Pros and cons of them all

Johnson:

Pros - he's been one of our most consistent clutch players in the playoffs.

Cons - he hasn't been able to stay healthy. Especially when we need him most.

Killorn:

Pros - another clutch player and I believe he still has another level to his game when he is more consistent in top 6.

Cons - hasn't been consistent performer in the regular season.

Palat:

Pros - has the size and skill that is so valuable to this team.

Cons - doesn't bring enough scoring in the playoffs.

Drouin:

Pros - he showed us his potential in the playoffs. He can be special.

Cons - contract demands could be high if he has a big season.

It's not an easy decision to make if it has to come to it. Happy that SY has to make the decision and not me. He will most likely leave Killorn unprotected and hope that Vegas takes him. Bishop will be off the books. Probably will trade Garrison. That's about 14 mil to sign Palat, Johnson and Drouin. You have to think that the cap will go up a bit. Boyle is off the books. Maybe we can trade Filppula. That's another 5 mil right there. Look I'll be shocked if SY can lock all of them up long term but something in me says he gets it done. Or he find a way to make our team better by trading one of them and make us better in the long run. Believe in the Yzerplan!!

Killorn is actually the model of consistency. He has averaged .5 PPG for 3 seasons. Not sure how that isn't consistent.
 

tjs*

Registered User
Mar 18, 2016
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Doing the math IS valuable despite the number of unknowns because it allows you to get an idea of what would be required to produce a particular outcome and because it forces you to make assumptions which you and others can then challenge (for instance the ridiculous idea that we will somehow sign Kucherov for $5.25M.) The process of making and challenging assumptions is how one can take an unclear situation and determine at least a rough idea of the likelihood of possible outcomes.

Not doing the math on the other hand is intellectually lazy. It essentially allows someone to make grand proclamations without ever having to support them. If that sounds familiar that's because it's what politicians do every time they run for office. "Sure, we'll give you all these new entitlements without raising your taxes." "How are you going to pay for that?" "Umm..." That's no different from what people are doing here with the Lightning. Those of us who take the time to run the numbers have a far clearer view of what is likely to happen than those who keep their heads in the clouds and don't make an effort to intelligently examine the situation or rationally support their positions (and "Yzerman will make it happen" is neither intelligent examination nor rational support.)
 

garmonbozia

Registered User
Jan 10, 2006
905
87
Doing the math IS valuable despite the number of unknowns because it allows you to get an idea of what would be required to produce a particular outcome and because it forces you to make assumptions which you and others can then challenge (for instance the ridiculous idea that we will somehow sign Kucherov for $5.25M.) The process of making and challenging assumptions is how one can take an unclear situation and determine at least a rough idea of the likelihood of possible outcomes.

Not doing the math on the other hand is intellectually lazy. It essentially allows someone to make grand proclamations without ever having to support them. If that sounds familiar that's because it's what politicians do every time they run for office. "Sure, we'll give you all these new entitlements without raising your taxes." "How are you going to pay for that?" "Umm..." That's no different from what people are doing here with the Lightning. Those of us who take the time to run the numbers have a far clearer view of what is likely to happen than those who keep their heads in the clouds and don't make an effort to intelligently examine the situation or rationally support their positions (and "Yzerman will make it happen" is neither intelligent examination nor rational support.)

I didn't say Kucherov would sign for $5.25. I said the combined total of Kucherov and Drouin's bridge deals would be about $10.5. I think it's more likely to be $6ish Kucherov & $4.5ish Drouin. If playing too tight with these two 2nd contracts is the issue you would like to contend, fine. Drop Coburn from my additive equation and add $3.5 M more to Kucherov and Drouin totals. Surely we get them under contract for a combined $14 M cap hit...probably even with one under longer term than a bridge at those rates. Now you have ~$10 M in space and need 2F, 2D, 1G.

"Those who take the time to run the numbers have a far clearer view of what is likely to happen"

No, they don't. Their numbers are no more right nor wrong than anybody else's. They are all fiction. Projection. Opinion. Their numbers are just as likely to be off. Go back to the first Stammergeddon thread two years ago and look at what people were projecting his AAV to be like then. Everybody expected him to be the highest paid player in the league. Even as close back as last offseason, most thought he'd get more than $10 M. It was probably a large motivating factor in most peoples desires to see Stamkos not re-signed. Nobody expected him back for a mere $8.5 M cap hit. Many may have wished to get him that cheap if bothering to re-sign him at all, but nobody seriously expected it.

Implying others are incapable of intelligently examining the situation or rationally support their positions is an attempt to insult people for having a different opinion than you.

In the end, I believe Yzerman will re-sign all of Kucherov, Drouin, Johnson, and Palat to fair contracts and still have the necessary flexibility to keep a competitive supporting cast around them. The situation is not yet so dire that we'll be forced into losing someone we'd rather not, especially not young core pieces under club control, double especially for those with so little negotiating leverage, triply so considering SFY is on the other side of the table.
 

Stammertime91

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I didn't say Kucherov would sign for $5.25. I said the combined total of Kucherov and Drouin's bridge deals would be about $10.5. I think it's more likely to be $6ish Kucherov & $4.5ish Drouin. If playing too tight with these two 2nd contracts is the issue you would like to contend, fine. Drop Coburn from my additive equation and add $3.5 M more to Kucherov and Drouin totals. Surely we get them under contract for a combined $14 M cap hit...probably even with one under longer term than a bridge at those rates. Now you have ~$10 M in space and need 2F, 2D, 1G.



No, they don't. Their numbers are no more right nor wrong than anybody else's. They are all fiction. Projection. Opinion. Their numbers are just as likely to be off. Go back to the first Stammergeddon thread two years ago and look at what people were projecting his AAV to be like then. Everybody expected him to be the highest paid player in the league. Even as close back as last offseason, most thought he'd get more than $10 M. It was probably a large motivating factor in most peoples desires to see Stamkos not re-signed. Nobody expected him back for a mere $8.5 M cap hit. Many may have wished to get him that cheap if bothering to re-sign him at all, but nobody seriously expected it.

Implying others are incapable of intelligently examining the situation or rationally support their positions is an attempt to insult people for having a different opinion than you.

In the end, I believe Yzerman will re-sign all of Kucherov, Drouin, Johnson, and Palat to fair contracts and still have the necessary flexibility to keep a competitive supporting cast around them. The situation is not yet so dire that we'll be forced into losing someone we'd rather not, especially not young core pieces under club control, double especially for those with so little negotiating leverage, triply so considering SFY is on the other side of the table.

Classy and well put, saved me the time in writing a response. :handclap:
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
28,955
17,897
Doing the math IS valuable despite the number of unknowns because it allows you to get an idea of what would be required to produce a particular outcome and because it forces you to make assumptions which you and others can then challenge (for instance the ridiculous idea that we will somehow sign Kucherov for $5.25M.) The process of making and challenging assumptions is how one can take an unclear situation and determine at least a rough idea of the likelihood of possible outcomes.

Not doing the math on the other hand is intellectually lazy. It essentially allows someone to make grand proclamations without ever having to support them. If that sounds familiar that's because it's what politicians do every time they run for office. "Sure, we'll give you all these new entitlements without raising your taxes." "How are you going to pay for that?" "Umm..." That's no different from what people are doing here with the Lightning. Those of us who take the time to run the numbers have a far clearer view of what is likely to happen than those who keep their heads in the clouds and don't make an effort to intelligently examine the situation or rationally support their positions (and "Yzerman will make it happen" is neither intelligent examination nor rational support.)

Relax, you post the same thing every 3 pages and think it's some new problem every time or that somehow you're the only one on this whole board that realizes there's a cap crunch.

It's been done hundreds on times on here already, you're not smarter then anyone by rehashing the same thing, get off your high horse.
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
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17,897
Exactly. Reality.

Or some alternate reality where

1. Every overpaid vet agrees to waive their hard earned NMC/NTC clause
2. Other GMs lose their minds and agree to take the overpaid players without any salary retained.
3. Then all the guys who deserve big raises agree to big discounts.
4. Then all the prospects on ELC that replace the lost players pan out.

Ok. Sure.

Alternate reality or probable scenario? learn the difference before you try to be a smartass. You're over exaggerating the counter arguments.
 
Last edited:

Leonardo87

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Relax, you post the same thing every 3 pages and think it's some new problem every time or that somehow you're the only one on this whole board that realizes there's a cap crunch.

It's been done hundreds on times on here already, you're not smarter then anyone by rehashing the same thing, get off your high horse.

Alternate reality or probable scenario? learn the difference before you try to be a smartass. You're over exaggerating the counter arguments.

Wow dude, Hallmark is waiting for you. :laugh:
 

Leonardo87

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Love your sig, nobodies going to regret losing a 5.8m third liner to keep a 1st line forward, Yzerman least of all.

LOL, was only messing with you and agree with what you said before to the other posters. Same posts about the cap and it's annoying. No one has a crystal ball.

As per my sig, Do you really think his contract can easily be moved without some kind of penalty? Was so happy when he got that NMC, and he earned it. Lost his job with the Rangers because of it, was not even money. So he won't waive for just anyone, has a family to think about. He holds the cards till summer 2018. Let the guy bounce back and help this team win a cup, there is enough contracts to cut before even touching his, and having enough to re-sign everyone. He still brings that grit on an elite level this team needs. We won't lose any of our top 6. If he has to be moved in his final year so be it. But before the NMC is up, makes no sense, and will hit Tampa with some kind of handicap either buy out dead cap space or retained salary. We are not talking about a guy who gets healthy scratched every other game and only plays 5 or 6 mins a game. Especially if Flip gets moved, Coop will turn to Cally more for the shutdown role.

I'm sorry if you took my post as an insult, I was just making a joke, because I'm honestly tired of reading people's posts like tjs wanting to move out Callahan in every single of their post. Yeah I get it, we are in cap crunch, but we know already. I want to see the core all re-signed with Cally still part of this team, and think it could be done. Anyway if you want to chat more can always PM me. Sorry again.
 

ijuka

Registered User
May 14, 2016
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Love your sig, nobodies going to regret losing a 5.8m third liner to keep a 1st line forward, Yzerman least of all.

You know, it always amazes me how much the teams play players as a general rate.

Even if you pay your star forward 8mil and your #1D 8mil, your #2D 6mil, the rest of the first line 6mil, the 2nd D pairing and the 2nd line 4.5mil, the 3rd d pairing and the 3rd line 3mil and the 4th line 1mil each, you are at exactly 73.5mil spent.

However, all players for all those positions tend to make more money than that. (Alright, I probably am overpaying 3rd pairing defensemen here)
 

Sky04

Registered User
Jan 8, 2009
28,955
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LOL, was only messing with you and agree with what you said before to the other posters. Same posts about the cap and it's annoying. No one has a crystal ball.

As per my sig, Do you really think his contract can easily be moved without some kind of penalty? Was so happy when he got that NMC, and he earned it. Lost his job with the Rangers because of it, was not even money. So he won't waive for just anyone, has a family to think about. He holds the cards till summer 2018. Let the guy bounce back and help this team win a cup, there is enough contracts to cut before even touching his, and having enough to re-sign everyone. He still brings that grit on an elite level this team needs. We won't lose any of our top 6. If he has to be moved in his final year so be it. But before the NMC is up, makes no sense, and will hit Tampa with some kind of handicap either buy out dead cap space or retained salary. We are not talking about a guy who gets healthy scratched every other game and only plays 5 or 6 mins a game. Especially if Flip gets moved, Coop will turn to Cally more for the shutdown role.

I'm sorry if you took my post as an insult, I was just making a joke, because I'm honestly tired of reading people's posts like tjs wanting to move out Callahan in every single of their post. Yeah I get it, we are in cap crunch, but we know already. I want to see the core all re-signed with Cally still part of this team, and think it could be done. Anyway if you want to chat more can always PM me. Sorry again.

No need to apologize, yeah I did take it as an insult, my bad. :nod:

However I do agree with him in that we will need to move Callahan to keep all of the top-6 forwards, but posting up the same numbers every page and calling people stupid is what's annoying.
 

Leonardo87

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No need to apologize, yeah I did take it as an insult, my bad. :nod:

However I do agree with him in that we will need to move Callahan to keep all of the top-6 forwards, but posting up the same numbers every page and calling people stupid is what's annoying.

I am hopeful it won't come to that. Have to wait and see.
 

DFC

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Sep 26, 2013
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Everyone understands there's a cap crunch coming. The difference is not everyone thinks the sky will fall because of it. Losing a good player isn't the end of the world.
 

Lovethiscity

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Nov 9, 2014
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Killorn is actually the model of consistency. He has averaged .5 PPG for 3 seasons. Not sure how that isn't consistent.

I guess because he's shown in the post season he can do better. In the regular season he has good games and some pretty bad ones. The fact that they "average out" doesn't make him "consistent".
 

Leonardo87

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I guess because he's shown in the post season he can do better. In the regular season he has good games and some pretty bad ones. The fact that they "average out" doesn't make him "consistent".

Well yeah, Killorn certainly got that contract for his playoff performance . He has never hit 20 Goals in the regular season. But 40 points these days is good for a 2nd/3rd liner on most teams. I have no complaints with him or the contract.
 

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