Blue Jays Discussion: Now is the winter of our (probable) discontent

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Discoverer

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Yeah I don't mind hearing the red sox in on those two. I'm not in love with either of them and wouldn't mind seeing them lock ina huge payroll and their roster with these guys. IMO it would leave them defensively challenged all over the infield and I'm not convinced it leaves them with a true elite bat in the middle (i.e. all of JD's biggest years have some weird - and inconsistent - outliers in them).

I don't know about that... Martinez has the same wRC+ as Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton the last four years. If that's not an "elite bat in the middle", that basically leaves Trout and Votto as the only "elite bats" in baseball.
 

Discoverer

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i think you may be underrating Cain a bit. Even with the aging curve remember that this guy peaked at 6.5war 2yrs ago and was at 4.1 this year. Hunter never reached that kind of peak and was well below where cain was this year at the same age.

he probably projects to 3-3.5 this year aging down to 1-1.5 in his final year. If you're getting him at a pricetage notably lower than $20m, I think you're probably getting good value out of that deal, and even the last years aren't valueless.

I tend to agree. I like Cain a lot. I liked Fowler last year, but not so much at the price he got. I like Cain more, and I think he'll end up getting a bit less.
 

zeke

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I don't know about that... Martinez has the same wRC+ as Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Donaldson and Giancarlo Stanton the last four years. If that's not an "elite bat in the middle", that basically leaves Trout and Votto as the only "elite bats" in baseball.

True, but none of those did he actually play the full year as a full time starter. Wait he did one of those years - and posted the worst wrc+ of the 4 in that year.

Steamer projects him at 130wrc+, and given the weird babips and isos in his profile, not to mention his lack of full time at bats, i'm not surprised they don't see him as one of the legit elite hitters in the game.

I mean he's good but I just see him as that kind of Chris Davis overpay this year. Great hitting years but enough question marks to be skeptical.
 

Battle Lin

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man i hate the oh hes gonna be 30 or 31 or 32 arguments, ya everyone hates that age but um they free agents, you dont really hit the open market until around 30ish...if your scared of age and decline, you aint never ever signing no big free agent
 

zeke

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How about we trade Alford, Zeuch, and one of Jansen/mcGuire for Yelich?

enough?
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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i think you may be underrating Cain a bit. Even with the aging curve remember that this guy peaked at 6.5war 2yrs ago and was at 4.1 this year. Hunter never reached that kind of peak and was well below where cain was this year at the same age.

he probably projects to 3-3.5 this year aging down to 1-1.5 in his final year. If you're getting him at a pricetage notably lower than $20m, I think you're probably getting good value out of that deal, and even the last years aren't valueless.

Hunter also never relied on UZR and RngR to drive his fWAR. Things that have already began deteriorating for Cain.
 

Discoverer

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The ISO averaged ~.241 (.238/.253/.228) from 14-16, before he went super saiyan in 2017. The BABIP shouldn't be an issue given the low GB% and GB/FB.

Also, highest hard hit rate in the league over the last four years, which, combined with the GB/FB, should lead to a fairly absurd BABIP.

(He's actually second in hard hit rate, but I think it's fair to ignore Ortiz since he's a quitter.)
 

Discoverer

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How about we trade Alford, Zeuch, and one of Jansen/mcGuire for Yelich?

enough?

The logical baseball fan in me says it's not enough.

The biased Jays fan in me says I would only do it if it's McGuire instead of Jansen.
 

Diamond Joe Quimby

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Also, highest hard hit rate in the league over the last four years, which, combined with the GB/FB, should lead to a fairly absurd BABIP.

(He's actually second in hard hit rate, but I think it's fair to ignore Ortiz since he's a quitter.)

He is the second best overall pure hitter in baseball today. I make that statement being well aware of how hyperbolic it seems, and in complete sobriety.
 

Kurtz

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If the league decides to turn a blind eye to PEDs again, then signing a 32-year old athletic outfielder to a 5 year deal would be a splendid idea!
 
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Kurtz

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man i hate the oh hes gonna be 30 or 31 or 32 arguments, ya everyone hates that age but um they free agents, you dont really hit the open market until around 30ish...if your scared of age and decline, you aint never ever signing no big free agent

Harper and Machado will be hitting free agency at 26. If we want, we can get Votto today for virtually nothing, and Cinci might even toss in a few dollars.

There are other alternatives to spending your budget.
 
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Kurtz

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Kendrys + SRF and Urena for Votto + US$25MM, and its a done deal.

I'd do that. Then sell high on Smoak, maybe translate him into a quality outfielder/4th-5th starter/MI. Park Pearce at DH where he can stay wrapped in bubbles for most of the game.

Then keeping JD might actually start to make sense.
 

Drew311

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How about we trade Alford, Zeuch, and one of Jansen/mcGuire for Yelich?

enough?

I heard on TSN radio yesterday that the Marlins were asking for Bichette AND Vlad Jr. as a return for Ozuna.

Not sure if 100% true, but if so....we ain't getting Yelich.
 

Brock Boeser Laser Show

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I heard on TSN radio yesterday that the Marlins were asking for Bichette AND Vlad Jr. as a return for Ozuna.

Not sure if 100% true, but if so....we ain't getting Yelich.
Find that story hard to believe...the return they got from the Cardinals is laughable in comparison.

Hmmm tons of free agent outfielders we could sign for free....but yeah we are just going to give you Bo and Vladdy for 2 years of Ozuna.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Doesn't Cain also cost a 2nd round pick if he's signed, or am I getting that confused with other guys. If that's false, I wouldn't totally be against it, but it could impact our ability to add elsewhere unless we make other corresponding moves to cut some salary (personally, I wouldn't be against trading Carrera for a prospect if we sign an experienced outfielder and then have someone like Pompey, Smith Jr. or Fields be the 4th outfielder next year).
 

hockeywiz542

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Doesn't Cain also cost a 2nd round pick if he's signed, or am I getting that confused with other guys. If that's false, I wouldn't totally be against it, but it could impact our ability to add elsewhere unless we make other corresponding moves to cut some salary (personally, I wouldn't be against trading Carrera for a prospect if we sign an experienced outfielder and then have someone like Pompey, Smith Jr. or Fields be the 4th outfielder next year).

 

SeaOfBlue

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That could explain why there is not much of a market for him. The Jays may also decide that's a tough sell given their new penchant for prospects.

That could be another Bichette, a decent outfielder and a low end top 30 international prospect + probably a boat load of cash for a guy who could turn out to be a declining asset. Given the shear number of good OF's out there who could be had for less term and money, and the fact the Jays do have a lot of young up and coming talent who could take over the job sooner rather than later, I would probably pass.

Cain is the type of move you make if you are a top team that could be going for it this year, not a team that still needs to keep the near and distant future in mind if things go south this season.
 
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hoc123

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That could explain why there is not much of a market for him. The Jays may also decide that's a tough sell given their new penchant for prospects.

That could be another Bichette, a decent outfielder and a low end top 30 international prospect + probably a boat load of cash for a guy who could turn out to be a declining asset. Given the shear number of good OF's out there who could be had for less term and money, and the fact the Jays do have a lot of young up and coming talent who could take over the job sooner rather than later, I would probably pass.

Cain is the type of move you make if you are a top team that could be going for it this year, not a team that still needs to keep the near and distant future in mind if things go south this season.
It's a little different for the Jays. Since the Jays are not over the luxury tax, and they don't receive revenue sharing, they lose their second highest pick and $500,000 from their international pool. Personally I'm not to worried with losing a second round pick when getting someone like Cain. Their is a small chance it's someone like Bichette but it could also be someone like J.B Woodman.
 
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