News Article: November 1 and playoff seeding

Discussion in 'New York Rangers' started by RangerBoy, Oct 22, 2013.

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  1. RangerBoy

    RangerBoy TRUST THE PROCESS

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    Elliotte Friedman wrote something very interesting about teams and playoff seeding.

    http://www.cbc.ca/sports-content/ho...oughts-playoff-chase-begins-early-in-nhl.html

    The Rangers are currently 4 points behind the Islanders for 3rd in the division. They are 6 points behind the 2 potential wild cards which are currently Montreal and TB.

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/standings

    The Rangers have 5 games remaining before November 1

    @Philly
    @Detroit
    Montreal
    @Islanders
    Buffalo

    Henrik Lundqvist isn't 100%. He has a nagging injury. His status for the Philly game in unknown.

    Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/h...major-concern-article-1.1492928#ixzz2iTlkuz2j

    The math isn't very good for the Rangers if they don't get going these next 10 days. Three teams out of 32.
     
  2. TheTakedown

    TheTakedown Puck is Life

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    There are only 30 NHL teams... wtf
     
  3. NYR Viper

    NYR Viper Registered User

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    That's very telling. People don't seem to understand that teams can pretty much lose a playoff spot early in the season like this. They will be lucky, with the injuries they have and the way they are playing, to get 3-4 points out of those games.
     
  4. Gardner McKay

    Gardner McKay You had to be there

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    But... but... but... I thought it was too early to hit the panic button?!?!?!? :laugh: (not directed at you Viper).
     
  5. NYR Viper

    NYR Viper Registered User

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    I think it's early, but the next 5 games will be very telling. They need to get at least a couple of wins in their next 5 to keep pace and keep their heads above water. Losing 4 out of 5 or 5 out of 5 and they are pretty close to out of it by November already.
     
  6. OverTheCap

    OverTheCap Registered User

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    The Rangers had some bad starts in 2006-07 and 2007-08, but those teams managed to rebound in November. They have to get their act together soon.

    It would help if the Rangers could push games to OT and pile up some loser points at the very least. So far their losses haven't even been close.
     
  7. Gardner McKay

    Gardner McKay You had to be there

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    You have to actually show up to the games in order to be able to play for a loser point. This team isn't showing up. I think Viper makes a good point. Losing 4 of 5 or even a 1-3-1... puts us at 3-9 or 3-8-1. That will take a very strong run to come back from.
     
  8. NYR Viper

    NYR Viper Registered User

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    The problem becomes the number of teams they have to leapfrog in order to make the wildcard spots.
     
  9. It's getting real close to honesty time here.
     
  10. Trxjw

    Trxjw Retired.

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    Scary math. Don't think we'll see anything done until after the next 4 games at the earliest. More likely they wait until Thanksgiving to fully assess the situation.
     
  11. OverTheCap

    OverTheCap Registered User

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    I agree, and this is why I never discounted the blowout losses as just another loss. If you play a close, competitive game, you have a better chance of coming away with at least a point. This team just gives up after they get scored on.
     
  12. The Gloaming

    The Gloaming Free Jesper Fast

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    Hell, this team gives up on the rare occasion that they actually do score.
     
  13. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    The other thing was that all of those teams that came back to make it were actually GOOD teams finding their way. The Rangers do not look like a good team that just needs to dig in and get traction. They look lost. They look like a bubble team. A bubble team is not going to be one of those outliers that can climb back from a hole dug too deeply.

    Those numbers do not bode well for that team.

    It's only the preseason, however.
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2013
  14. RangerBoy

    RangerBoy TRUST THE PROCESS

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    Those teams weren't more than 4 points out a playoff spot by Halloween. In 2007-08,the Rangers were ninth at the All-Star break. They were a 1 point behind 8th or they were losing a tiebreaker for 8th tied in points. They didn't have to make up much ground.
     
  15. GAGLine

    GAGLine Registered User Sponsor

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    32 teams over 7 years. Some of the same teams more than once, obviously.
     
  16. jacko23

    jacko23 KCCO!

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    what bubble would that be, exactly? the top 5 pick bubble? cos they for sure dont look like a playoff bubble team.
     
  17. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    Without injuries I am giving them the benefit of the doubt and assuming they are a bubble team. With injuries though, yeah you're probably right.
     
  18. Kane One

    Kane One Registered User

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    There's a new playoff format, so these stats are useless.
     
  19. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    It's still only 8 teams from each conference, only now there's 16 teams in the East. One more team to be on the outside looking in. The only thing that changed is how the teams are seeded and wildcards are decided. So if anything the additional team in the East makes this look even worse for the Rangers. The Rangers are 4 points out from the 3rd division seat, and 6 from the wildcards.

    The Rangers have the worst goal differential in the NHL, they are tied for the least GF. They have 4 key injuries. Call me negative, but it's not looking too hot.
     
  20. Kane One

    Kane One Registered User

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    Can someone who is good at figuring out probabilities tell me if this is right?

    Old System:

    New System:

    Teams now have to compete with way less teams to get a playoff spot.

    Even if I'm wrong, there's a 37.5% chance of automatically making the playoffs, without having to be a wildcard team.
     
  21. Trxjw

    Trxjw Retired.

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    If anything, the current format makes it even tougher to climb out of the basement. We appear to be in the weaker Eastern division this year, which means it's pretty much that 3rd Metro spot or nothing unless we start winning some games quickly.
     
  22. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    Statistically it looks better. A 37.5% chance is greater than a 20% chance of winning the division, 12.5% to win the 8th is better than 11.1% with the new wild card, however.

    It then becomes a matter of how bad/good is your division compared to the conference. The playing field is not level.

    Edit: Are the Rangers better than 5 other teams in their division or 8 other teams in the conference?
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2013
  23. Kane One

    Kane One Registered User

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    If the Rangers snap out of it and the Metro Division is as bad as it sounds, the Rangers should feast off of this "weaker division" like how the Capitals used to off the Southeast Division. I'll accept that 37.5% chance with the risk of a lesser chance at the wildcard teams if the Metro is as weak as people want to make it seem.

    With your edit, why 6 teams and not 5? The Rangers are better than 5 teams in this division.
     
  24. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    I agree and that seems like their only ticket it in, because I can't see them beating out the next 3 best teams in the Atlantic after their division winners, for the wildcard. (3 because they have 6 teams that right now look like a better team than the Rangers.)
     
  25. Ail

    Ail Dear Friend Pape

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    Yes, meant 5, sorry.
     

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