Dick Whitman
Registered User
Nope.
The guy makes 19 good/great defensive plays and 1 mistake and people harp on the 1 mistake. I guess that's the price Karlsson pays for being the best dman in the world.
Norris Discussion III
- Thread starter spiny norman
- Start date
Nope.
The guy makes 19 good/great defensive plays and 1 mistake and people harp on the 1 mistake. I guess that's the price Karlsson pays for being the best dman in the world.
jacks*
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Wondercarrot
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- Jul 2, 2002
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if only there were a way to watch these 2 defencemen in some sort of head to head competition over multiple games in a condensed time frame...
JustAHabFan
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BondraTime
Registered User
What is the earning? The points and plus minus?
I hope you see how that is incredibly unreliable....
jacks*
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kingdok
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- Jun 8, 2004
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It's coming up in the 1st round of the playoff.
Playoffs have no bearing on Norris voting.
JustAHabFan
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I know. The guys simply want to see a face-to-face match up between Subban and Karlsson.
muffin with tentacle
Registered User
I mean... it already happened and Subban was exposed pretty badly.
People still aren't convinced, though...
Fire Everyone
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MakeTheGoalsLarger
Registered User
i remember that most fans (including sens fans) thought Subban was better than Karlson in that series.
More like a stellar peak month in November and then a lot of elite level back end production, combined with his overall game. I think befoer his injury the Norris was his to lose.
But have a look at his month to month last year as well. And look at game to game - he never went on any long pointless streaks, and no one ever said "Giordano is struggling lately" whereas they did say that of Karlsson, for example.
SlapJack
Scum bag Sens
- Dec 6, 2010
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Subban was better, people always look at points after the fact and judge.
Karlsson was incredible in the Rangers series the year before, but had only one point to show for it...and that one point was a fluke goal that should have never gone in.
I remember when Subban bailed on his team and tackled Kyle Turris in a desperate attempt to get thrown out of the game. It was a truly pathetic display of an elite player bailing on his team when facing adversity.
kingdok
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Which simply shows how much this thread is derailing. I mean, there's a thread dedicated to the Karlsson/Subban comparison in the poll section, where everyone can take playoffs into accounts (even playoffs that happened 2 years ago). I'm sure fans of other top defensemen in the league would rather have that conversation moved there.
No, I'm saying Karlsson get discredited as being a poor defensive player, because he can make 3 poor plays in a game, and that's all anyone wants to talk about, even though he may have also made 6 amazing plays, scored two points, and finished even because they were on the power play....
and then people will come along and argue that player X that made 1 poor play, and 2 good plays finishing with a single point an plus 1 because it was 5v5 is somehow a superior player...?
jacks*
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Or Subban makes 1 poor play get 2 pts 5 on 5 while making 3-5 great defensive plays on the pk and finishes in the plus and all you hear about those 6 amazing plays and 2 points that player x got but no one wants to even discuss the 5-6 bad defensive plays let alone the lack of pk he had during that game which is a ongoing thing for player x.
Micklebot
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- Apr 27, 2010
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Most fans of other teams likely left this thread long ago...
Back to Gio, I think he's great, and may very well have won the norris if he'd remained healthy, but without that crazy month of Nov, he was a ~50 pts defender. I just don't think it's fair to say he didn't go on any streaks and just racks up his pts steadily. As Nyquil pointed out, doing it 82 consecutive games with no extended break is different than spitting it over 2 seasons or pacing 60 games worth to 82.
Hopefully he gets a chance to prove himself over a full 82 games next year, but until he does, I'm not comfortable assuming he'd perform the same over a full season.
Ah, all of those ignorant, hockey-foolish NHL coaches who stupidly gave Karlsson 8 first place votes to one for Subban for Norris this year (per Bob McKenzie http://www.tsn.ca/end-of-season-nhl-coaches-poll-1.249213).
But what do NHL coaches know about hockey, right? They got NUTHIN on Habs HF boards posters and frankly should pay closer attention, cuz, you know, Karlsson "can't play D".
Lol.
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Montreal Shadow
Registered User
Honestly Micklebot, you're one of the most intelligent and level-headed poster I've come across. I don't even know why you bother with the Karlsson vs Subban debate any more. It's obvious nobody's gonna change their opinion and you would assume you're at least educating some but the very same guys will come back with the same arguments you swore you shut down in a different thread.
I let this debate go a while ago. Too much fanboyism and misinformation going around.
Ten88Nineteen
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- May 22, 2011
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I think this part of the discussion has broken down into pedantic nonsense, and so I'll just say that I agree with what you're saying. Rarely does any one player carry their team to the playoffs, and even if that were the case it wouldn't be as important for this discussion as we're not talking about the Hart.
I use Corsi Rel QOC because it unquestionably tells you whether or not a player is put against the better possession players on the other team. The other types of QOC are either of such minuscule difference to be almost meaningless (TOI based) or weighted in such a way they benefit players on bad possession teams (Raw Corsi QOC).
Zone starts have a similar problem to Raw Corsi QOC, and that's why in my analysis I like to talk more about how a player fits into their teams' structure than just give raw numbers. Granted, you can get a better idea of what's going on by using relative zone starts. So, saying Doughty starts in the offensive zone about 2% less than his average teammate, while Karlsson starts there about 5% more than his average teammate tells you a lot more than just ZSO% can. LA spent a lot more time in the offensive zone this season than Ottawa did, after all.
The point here was not at all that Doughty > Karlsson because of the D-men they play with. That would be a pretty silly comparison to make. It was that due to unforeseen circumstances, Doughty played minutes far above his own (already high) average this year.
What if Carey Price is your CEO? He is know to be a generational talent when it comes to economic responsibility, so the profit may reflect more on his management than on your skills as an employee.
Micklebot
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Yeah, agreed. Lets move on.
I tend to prefer TOI based because most teams because the best players on a team almost always get more toi than the weakest ones. The same cannot be said about the best players on a team having the best Corsi rel.
To illustrate, here's a list of the top 10 forward competition according to TOI, and according to Corsi Rel. (40+ games)
JOHNTAVARES | JOETHORNTON
RYANNUGENT-HOPKINS | PATRICEBERGERON
JORDANEBERLE | TOMASTATAR
TAYLORHALL | PAVELDATSYUK
CLAUDEGIROUX | JOEPAVELSKI
ERICSTAAL | ERICSTAAL
NICKLASBACKSTROM | BRADMARCHAND
ALEXOVECHKIN | GABRIELLANDESKOG
KYLEOKPOSO | JAKUBVORACEK
PATRICKKANE | MIKERIBEIRO
SEANMONAHAN | NATHANMACKINNON
MATTDUCHENE | BRENDANGALLAGHER
MIKERIBEIRO | JAMESNEAL
TYLERENNIS | MARTINERAT
SIDNEYCROSBY | BRANDONDUBINSKY
PAVELDATSYUK | MICHAELRAFFL
HENRIKZETTERBERG | FILIPFORSBERG
SHANEDOAN | CLAUDEGIROUX
TYLERSEGUIN | HENRIKSEDIN
STEVENSTAMKOS | SCOTTHARTNELL
RYANJOHANSEN | NAZEMKADRI
JAROMIRJAGR | SAMGAGNER
MARKSCHEIFELE | DARRENHELM
JOEPAVELSKI | CHRISKUNITZ
GABRIELLANDESKOG | JAROMIRJAGR
ZACHPARISE | JIRIHUDLER
T.J.OSHIE | SIDNEYCROSBY
RYANGETZLAF | CRAIGSMITH
EVGENIMALKIN | MATHIEUPERREAULT
JAKUBVORACEK | JONATHANTOEWS
Neither is perfect, but in my mind at least, the Corsi rel list has more anomolous entries. The Rel Corsi list continues to get more and more wonky as you go down, with guys like JVR and Kessel below Clarkson on Tor, Couture and Marleau behind Nieto on SJ, Zetterberg and Nyqvist behind Sheahan Ablekader, and Helm on Det.
Rel zone starts are good for giving an idea of how the coach prefers to deploy players, but does nothing to tell you how "tough" his starts are, but more importantly is the actual effect zone starts have is often misunderstood (idk if that's the case for you specifically).
I don't know if you clicked the link in my post, essentially, the advantage or disadvantage gained by an offensive of defensive zone start has been shown to last about 10 secs. On top of that, there is only a significant advantage if your team wins the draw in the OZ, and conversely, a disadvantage in the DZ if you lose the draw.
So when people point to a difference of 2% points in OZ starts, they are arguing that a player has an advantage for roughly 4 mins over a full season assuming 1200 OZ and DZ starts combined for each player, and 50% on ice faceoff %. That's right, a 2% difference in OZ start % would be a difference of 48 starts (1200 x .02 =24 more OZ shifts, and 24 less DZ, total of 48 delta) with one player having an advantage, only roughly half of which would be a significant advatage where his team won the faceoff. So is 24 starts worth worrying about particularly when you realize the advantage doesn't even last the whole shift? Even in far more extreme cases where there's a 10% gap in OZ%, we're talking about roughly 20 mins of advantage over a season.
I'm not trying to take away from the good year that Doughty had, I just a lot of the rational behind why it was impressive is faulty logic. Zone starts and QOC are too often overstated. I do however think that the increased workload is relevant, as is the lack of depth on the blueline with Voynov's situation, but I'm not convinced that should be enough to propel him into Norris contention.
Those are very good points. November was crazy for Gio, and I readily admit that 82 games across two seasons =/= one season. I was just pointing out the guy is pretty consistent and therefore less likely to suffer a big dip than the pure offensive guys. Of course, November did exist, so he would likely be a fair bit more than 50 points, even if he continued only at the level he was at or even suffered some sort of production downturn.
Plus IMO, looking at the arguments in this thread about who is a better defensive player - Karlsson or Subban, had Gio (or Shattenkirk) not suffered big time losses, that debate would be moot. So those guys, with their points (projected or not) PLUS their better defensive work, would likely be ahead.
Micklebot
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I think had Gio put up ~55 pts or more in 82 games, he'd be the frontrunner. He's very good defensively and that would probably have been enough to make up any difference in pts this year. My guess is he would have had no problem doing that, so I agree, but you never know. Weber is a great example of a guy that isn't a pts producer having a big drought. Not sure that's ever happened to Weber before either.
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