Speculation: NJD Offseason Part III

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Camille the Eel

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We have a solid foundation.

I think it will hinge on how our younger defensemen grow or don't grow. Only Larsson is at this point an unconditional success and a keeper, but it took him years.

I challenge the premise that our young D has really shown such promise. Larsson, Greene, Schlemko . . . Moore though he makes a lot of mistake . . . were our strength this year. The young guys?

Merrill, Severson, Hegelson, Gragnani, Warsofksy after we got him . . . did not compare well, at the end of the season with, for example, the young defensemen at the Carolina Hurricanes. Or Miami. Even looking at these guys on paper, their size and strength here does not impress me that much either. (If the goal is a dominant defense, look at Nashville right now just physically).

So I accept the premise "build from the net out," but I am really unsure how well that build is going. We need to get bigger on the back end (I suspect) and have more facility. If Schero had not signed Schlemko and Moore last season we would have been weak at D.
 

SpeakingOfTheDevils

Devils Advocate
Jan 22, 2010
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I expect Severson to take a pretty serious step forward next season. I don't see a reason to assume otherwise, after what he has already shown us. He'll be fine.

Larsson and Greene are Larsson and Greene. Known quantities. Top-pairing defensemen for us. I expect Schlemko to be re-signed too and kept in the fray.

I suspect we won't be seeing any of the Helgesons or Warsofskys next year. Frankly, I'm not too certain we'll see Merrill next year. If we can sign a veteran, offensive-type defenseman (I'll use Goligoski), I think we'll have a very well-rounded group.

Goligoski-Larsson
Greene-Severson
Schlemko-Moore*

*if he impresses, Santini could slot in here

That's pretty damn solid in my eyes, especially with Cory behind them.
 

britdevil

Tea with milk...
Feb 15, 2007
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Still enjoying the ride. Look at the changes that have taken place in less than a year.
 

JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
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Merrill was better than Moore this season.

For some reason a lot of our fans have written off Merrill. I haven't at all. I think we'll see what the organization has in mind for him by the type of contract they give him this summer. I believe he is already a solid defenseman - No question he still needs time to grow and injuries are hampering that growth somewhat...But I will remind everyone again Larsson made two trips to Albany and probably was scratched twice the amount at the same stage Merrill is in his career right now.

Severson was as good as Schlemko this season in a lot of areas. At Even Strength he was far and away our best producer. And one is 21 the other a 28 year old veteran. I fully expect Severson to take another step in his development. He took a significant jump this season even if many couldn't see it, it certainly did happen. I don't know how that will translate into points, but I am expecting an even smoother more polished player next year for sure.

It would appear the patience level is commensurate to the draft position in many instances around here. Just in the wrong way in my opinion.
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
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The problem with Merrill is if you have to expose him to the expansion draft (and I do think it's happening, they don't usually float parameters for something that isn't going to happen), if he rebounds next year he might well get taken unless you trade him before. If he doesn't then he's clearly not going to amount to much imo
 

Smitty426

Registered User
Jun 25, 2006
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Problem with this is we are somewhat set with D

Larsson (6'3" 205")can hold his own
Greene (5'11" 190") can hold his own+
Schlemko (6'0" 190") not hulking
Merrill (6'3" 205") gets man handled with skill not size
Moore (6'3" 210") not tiny but plays smaller than he is

But they are no St Louis Blues!

Some of the UFA are sizeable
 

SpeakingOfTheDevils

Devils Advocate
Jan 22, 2010
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I have no issue with them retaining Merrill and keeping him in the plans moving forward. My post wasn't meant as a down-vote for him.

I'm curious if they'll push forward with Santini, or if they'll allow Merrill more time and space to develop. Even if they don't add a Goligoski type in free agency, I could easily see the lines shaping up as Greene-Larsson/Schlemko-Severson/Moore-Santini...
 

217 Forever

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Sep 15, 2014
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I have no issue with them retaining Merrill and keeping him in the plans moving forward. My post wasn't meant as a down-vote for him.

I'm curious if they'll push forward with Santini, or if they'll allow Merrill more time and space to develop. Even if they don't add a Goligoski type in free agency, I could easily see the lines shaping up as Greene-Larsson/Schlemko-Severson/Moore-Santini...

Merrill is a lefty Mark Fayne or John Moore (not in style necessarily that's not what I mean). Just because a guy has played a bunch of games at a young age doesn't mean he's any good. And he certainly isn't someone that should prevent us from signing another defenseman.
 

Devil X

Call me Nostradamus
Jul 9, 2007
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The problem with Merrill is if you have to expose him to the expansion draft (and I do think it's happening, they don't usually float parameters for something that isn't going to happen), if he rebounds next year he might well get taken unless you trade him before. If he doesn't then he's clearly not going to amount to much imo

Cant think like that. You cant say "Well we might lose him so we arent going to develop him" You develop your players and if we lose him to an expansion draft oh well thats life. While i believe Merrill is a top 4 Dman i dont believe he is a guy that will kill us if we lost him. By the time that comes around Jacobs and Santini could very well be knocking at the door and ready to step in and up.
 

MichaelJ

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May 20, 2013
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The problem with Merrill is if you have to expose him to the expansion draft (and I do think it's happening, they don't usually float parameters for something that isn't going to happen), if he rebounds next year he might well get taken unless you trade him before. If he doesn't then he's clearly not going to amount to much imo

I'm all for trading him in a package for a young forward if possible. Go with vets on the left side for a couple of seasons, draft defensemen and let them develop. As of now, White could become a solid bottom pair LHD.
 

NJDevs26

Once upon a time...
Mar 21, 2007
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Cant think like that. You cant say "Well we might lose him so we arent going to develop him" You develop your players and if we lose him to an expansion draft oh well thats life. While i believe Merrill is a top 4 Dman i dont believe he is a guy that will kill us if we lost him. By the time that comes around Jacobs and Santini could very well be knocking at the door and ready to step in and up.

That's not what I was saying. Just that I'm not really counting on him being part of the long term solution here cause either he'll not do much next year and it'll be obvious he is what he is, or he will and we might have to trade/lose him anyway.
 

NJRockinRoller

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May 14, 2014
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Tanking is a proven method?

Last decade worth of Stanley Cup champs-

Ducks - when did they purposely tank? Perry, Getzlaf
Red Wings - yeah no Datsyuk, Larkin etc
Penguins - OK I'll give you this one Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Kessel
Blackhawks - didn't tank on purpose, were just a horribly run organization Kane Toews
Bruins - did not purposely tank Chara, Bergeron
Kings - did not purposely tank Kopitar, Doughty

How about the remaining teams in this year's playoffs?

Blues - no
Stars - not really, weren't they missing the playoffs by just a few points most years recently? Benn Seguin
Nashville - nope Weber
San Jose - not even close Couture, Pavelski
Tampa Bay - were not very good for a few seasons, didn't really tank though Stamkos, Hedman Johnson
Islanders - tanked but I don't think they did it on purpose John Tavares
Capitals - maybe? Ovechkin

The only teams that have been tanking in the last five years are Edmonton, Buffalo, Toronto, and Columbus. And they all still stink. They've acquired "talent" and it hasn't changed jack squat for them.

This idea that tanking is a sure fire way to become a contender is more urban legend than it is real-life strategy.

Whether on purpose or not, these teams have elite, game-changing talent on their rosters. A few are late draft picks, but majority are not. Even the last Devils team to do anything (12) was built around two superstars in Kovalchuk and Parise.. Kovalchuk in particular was an absolute stud, who could change a game by taking control and producing a goal (2012 ECF game 2).

If people are going to insist that winning 5-10 meaningless games in a lost season is worth being taken out of the mix for elite talent, I won't argue. But I will ask, how do you suggest getting said talent?

"Get lucky and have faith" is not a plan. Yes the Rangers don't have a super player, but have an elite goalie (late pick), got a captain for free in Gomez trade etc. But you cannot compare the NYR to NJD. The Rangers have money and cache to add players whenever they want.

You have to have players. It's not a coincidence that 2012 happened with 17 & 9 playing at elite levels. How will you get this talent? One of them, Stamkos, is a UFA this year and the Devils do not have a prayer in that derby. Not a prayer. The Devils are consistently on the list of 3-4 teams players have on no-trade destinations.

So you can't get a franchise changer from UFA, cant get one from trade (no assets), and most likely will not draft one due to draft placement. All this talk about Jon Merrill and Damon Severson... in other teams rooms, those guys wouldn't even being discussed.

Not good enough for playoffs and not bad enough to get better is a bad place to be.
 

goonybird

Young boy expert
Jul 9, 2015
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Tanking is not realistic for our team of fringe players desperate to prove they can play in the NHL
 

217 Forever

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Sep 15, 2014
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Tanking is not realistic for our team of fringe players desperate to prove they can play in the NHL

It really boils down to whether you'd rather try and always stay competitive with the hopes that you make a deep run here or there or just accept several (at minimum) years of futility before having what you hope is a championship caliber team. I know personally, as well as what I think is best given our kind/volume of fans, I choose the former every time.
 

JimEIV

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Feb 19, 2003
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Perry #28 overall Richard Trophy winner - Getzlaf #19 overall Both are positions of playoffs teams.

Datsyuk #171 overall -- Larkin # 15 overall both are playoff positions.

Keith #54 over all Norris winner
Letang #62 overall
Chara #56 overall Norris winner
Bergeron #45 overall Selke Trophy winner
Krejci #63 overall


Benn #129 overall Art Ross Trophy winner
St Louis Undrafted Art Ross Trophy winner

A look at some of the top goal scorers from this year:

# 4 leading goal scorer this season Vladimir Tarasenko # 16 overall - playoff position

#5 leading goal scorer Joe Pavelski 205th overall

#6 leading goal scorer Brad Marchand 71st overall

#9 Corey Perry see above

#14 Patrice Bergeron #45 overall
#14 Wayne Simmonds #61 overall

#16 leading scorer Tyler Toffoli 47th overall
# 16 leading scorer James Neal 33rd overall
#16 leading scorer Brandon Saad 43rd overall

#19 leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau 104th overall

It gets even better as we round out the rest of the 30+ goal scorers this season. names like Artemi Panarin undrafted, Nikita Kucherov 2nd rouder, Max Pacioretty #22 overall. Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique....

You absolutely do not need high draft picks to be successful.
 

MichaelJ

Registered User
May 20, 2013
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Perry #28 overall Richard Trophy winner - Getzlaf #19 overall Both are positions of playoffs teams.

Datsyuk #171 overall -- Larkin # 15 overall both are playoff positions.

Keith #54 over all Norris winner
Letang #62 overall
Chara #56 overall Norris winner
Bergeron #45 overall Selke Trophy winner
Krejci #63 overall


Benn #129 overall Art Ross Trophy winner
St Louis Undrafted Art Ross Trophy winner

A look at some of the top goal scorers from this year:

# 4 leading goal scorer this season Vladimir Tarasenko # 16 overall - playoff position

#5 leading goal scorer Joe Pavelski 205th overall

#6 leading goal scorer Brad Marchand 71st overall

#9 Corey Perry see above

#14 Patrice Bergeron #45 overall
#14 Wayne Simmonds #61 overall

#16 leading scorer Tyler Toffoli 47th overall
# 16 leading scorer James Neal 33rd overall
#16 leading scorer Brandon Saad 43rd overall

#19 leading scorer Johnny Gaudreau 104th overall

It gets even better as we round out the rest of the 30+ goal scorers this season. names like Artemi Panarin undrafted, Nikita Kucherov 2nd rouder, Max Pacioretty #22 overall. Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique....

You absolutely do not need high draft picks to be successful.

Need them? No, of course not. But it's always better to be in a position to add elite talent than hope one of your later picks work out. First (minor point), a handful of the players listed came from the deepest draft class ever (2003) where you could've thrown darts and landed on a top player. Secondly, I don't see any Devils on that list besides Henrique. If we were better at finding late talent I might feel alright about our chances but lately our late picks haven't turned into much. As I mentioned in another post, you need a combination of tremendous scouting and luck to land these talents - you can't count on finding them. Having higher draft picks increases the likelihood substantially. Not only are the picks more likely to produce for you but you're also more likely to have valuable trade assets.

For all of the late picks listed that are doing well, how about all of the other players picked that turned into jack squat? It's nice to say you can get a Jamie Benn in a later round but it's much more likely that player becomes Connor Chatham.
 

Triumph

Registered User
Oct 2, 2007
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You can get lucky in the draft. Luck is not a plan. If the plan is 'draft 1st line players/elite players' with picks between 10-100, it's not likely to succeed.

What the Devils can do is put themselves in better and better position to jump when some moron team tires of having star players and decides that not having them is better. San Jose didn't 'tank', but they had a former #3 overall pick that in 2006 they could trade for Joe Thornton. Dallas didn't tank but they had a solid group of players they could trade for Tyler Seguin, and then repeated the trick to get Jason Spezza. This is the only reasonable alternative to not having a high draft pick - getting someone else's.
 

JimEIV

Registered User
Feb 19, 2003
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Need them? No, of course not. But it's always better to be in a position to add elite talent than hope one of your later picks work out. First (minor point), a handful of the players listed came from the deepest draft class ever (2003) where you could've thrown darts and landed on a top player. Secondly, I don't see any Devils on that list besides Henrique. If we were better at finding late talent I might feel alright about our chances but lately our late picks haven't turned into much. As I mentioned in another post, you need a combination of tremendous scouting and luck to land these talents - you can't count on finding them. Having higher draft picks increases the likelihood substantially. Not only are the picks more likely to produce for you but you're also more likely to have valuable trade assets.

For all of the late picks listed that are doing well, how about all of the other players picked that turned into jack squat? It's nice to say you can get a Jamie Benn in a later round but it's much more likely that player becomes Connor Chatham.

Absolutely true...

You're going to fail more often than not...But you don't need to hit that often either....You need on those every once in 10/15 years. To go along with other good players.

I would argue a #51 overall Patrick Elias sustained this team and brought it new levels for a solid 15 years. 1 player, chosen in the 2nd round was massively important to this organization success for more than a decade.

You hit a cluster and you win cups like Boston did...They had about 4/5 years of excellent drafting. Not terribly much before or after.

You hit on a cluster like Elias #51, then a Gomez #27 overall, then a Gionta #82, Sykora #17 overall in a relative short span... You are winning cups.


Without tanking.

And actually...That seems a helluva lot more likely than finding the next Crosby or Kane.
 
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Emperoreddy

Show Me What You Got!
Apr 13, 2010
129,832
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New Jersey, Exit 16E
We didn't tank either and got a 6th overall pick in Zacha and Lars as a 4th overall. Also got Cory for a 9th.

You don't need to stock pile top 5 picks to get ahead in this league and we have added really good talent with our high picks over the last few years.

It is now just about letting them develop. Filling out the rest of the team while continuing to draft smart so we have plenty of depth to make big trades when it's time to go over the hump.
 

Emperoreddy

Show Me What You Got!
Apr 13, 2010
129,832
75,222
New Jersey, Exit 16E
Need them? No, of course not. But it's always better to be in a position to add elite talent than hope one of your later picks work out. First (minor point), a handful of the players listed came from the deepest draft class ever (2003) where you could've thrown darts and landed on a top player. Secondly, I don't see any Devils on that list besides Henrique. If we were better at finding late talent I might feel alright about our chances but lately our late picks haven't turned into much. As I mentioned in another post, you need a combination of tremendous scouting and luck to land these talents - you can't count on finding them. Having higher draft picks increases the likelihood substantially. Not only are the picks more likely to produce for you but you're also more likely to have valuable trade assets.

For all of the late picks listed that are doing well, how about all of the other players picked that turned into jack squat? It's nice to say you can get a Jamie Benn in a later round but it's much more likely that player becomes Connor Chatham.

How about all the players picked in the top 10 that amounted to nothing as well? Getting a high pick doesn't guarantee you will get a good player. Top 10 picks bust all the time.
 

MichaelJ

Registered User
May 20, 2013
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766
How about all the players picked in the top 10 that amounted to nothing as well? Getting a high pick doesn't guarantee you will get a good player. Top 10 picks bust all the time.

Good grief, how about a little objectivity...of course they do. The point is what's more likely? The percentages of what players actually become NHL regulars declines over the course of the draft and falls off a cliff towards the end of the second round.

There is no guarantee anywhere but you're chances are vastly improved with higher picks- are you actually going to argue against that?
 
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