Value of: NJD/ARI
- Thread starter 89mogilny
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GhostfaceWu
Shi Shaw
- Feb 11, 2015
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Lol in what world does Ingram cost a team a mercer level talent
rt
The Kinder, Gentler Version
AZ doesn’t want to move Ingram, at all. But for Mercer? They’d definitely do it.
Dead Coyote
Registered User
- Oct 10, 2017
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I definitely don't want to move Ingram, and I doubt NJD would offer this, but I would definitely take it if they did. Goalies are voodoo and this would be selling high on Ingram. I think he could be our goalie of the future and his age is great for us, but I'm also pretty sure we can find someone like that in Europe and groom them the same.
ZachaFlockaFlame
Registered User
- Aug 24, 2020
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There's no bigger gap in the NHL between what fans consistently think goalies are worth and what goalies actually get traded for.
The largest goalie price of the last decade was 9th overall for 26 year old Cory Schneider.
In the 3 years before said trade Schneider ranked 1st in the league in GAA, SV%, 2nd in GSAx/60, and 4th in overall GSAx (with a MINISCULE gap between him and 2nd). Very clearly a young, cost controlled, top 5 goalie in hockey
Since then goalies are getting smaller and smaller contracts, going later and later in drafts, and becoming less and less valuable assets.
But if you offered 9th overall for about 10+ goalies in the league fanbases would say no.
Shesterkin, Saros, Oetter, Swayman, Markstrom, Vasy, Oetter, Askarov, Wallstedt, Demko, Ingram apparently now, etc.
The largest goalie price of the last decade was 9th overall for 26 year old Cory Schneider.
In the 3 years before said trade Schneider ranked 1st in the league in GAA, SV%, 2nd in GSAx/60, and 4th in overall GSAx (with a MINISCULE gap between him and 2nd). Very clearly a young, cost controlled, top 5 goalie in hockey
Since then goalies are getting smaller and smaller contracts, going later and later in drafts, and becoming less and less valuable assets.
But if you offered 9th overall for about 10+ goalies in the league fanbases would say no.
Shesterkin, Saros, Oetter, Swayman, Markstrom, Vasy, Oetter, Askarov, Wallstedt, Demko, Ingram apparently now, etc.
Kaapo di tutti capi
Registered User
You're not wrong about goalie value, but aside from Nashville who have Saros and another young goaltender ready to take his place, which of those teams benefit more with a first round pick than they do with a top 10 goalie in the league? Maybe if it's a super strong draft (like 2003), but otherwise a great goalie is more valuable than a 1st round pick.
The problem with goalie perceptions is they're so easy to skew (because of goalie volatility)
Saros struggling this year doesn't matter because of his pedigree
Markstrom being dogshit last year doesn't matter because of this year.
Fans view things through the biased lens of either:
My goaltender is currently playing well so nothing in the past or future matters, clearly he will be good guaranteed for the next 3 years, this is the new normal (Ingram, Markstrom)
Or
My goaltender's current struggles are just a slump and clearly they will bounce back, this is just an anomaly (Saros)
The fact is goaltenders are volatile. Great goaltending is valuable, a great goalie is not. Because a "great goalie" doesn't guarantee that you'll get great goaltending. Markstrom for example has actively hurt the Flames in 2 of the last 4 years and been a big reason why they missed the playoffs.
NHL gms realize this, which is why high prices for goalies aren't paid. When it comes time to put the chips down.
-They pay goalies less than other positions (Sorokin just got less than BO HORVAT and Helle just got the same as Mark Schiefele)
-The draft goalies later than any other position
-And they trade less for goalies than any other position
Kaapo di tutti capi
Registered User
Again you're right and I should have clarified - I meant from a fan's perspective. Like as a Rangers fan, I have no interest in trading Shesterkin for 9 OA in this year's draft - which is basically a 7 player draft and then after that, everyone is throwing darts.
Shesterkin is one of the true superstars, and I agree in terms of that perspective. But think about it value wise.
Shesty has 2 years on his deal at 6.7 (if it's 5.7 correct me I might be wrong). When he hits UFA will you offer him 10 mill?
Even in that case thats 3.3x2=about 7 mill of surplus value.
Mercer for example on a 4x4 will make 17 mill over the next 5 years. If you view him = to a guy like JT compher (not a high bar), he will provide 25+ mill in value over that time frame, or about 8 mill in surplus value. And I'd say that's a low estimation of Mercer
Just my perspective in terms of value. Ofc there is the factor of potentially resigning Igor and added value on his next deal, and going for immediate winning, that's just my perspective tho
Kaapo di tutti capi
Registered User
It's 5,7. Again - speaking as a fan and not trying to mind read Drury, if at the end of next season, he won't sign for less than 10 million, as a FAN - I move him at the deadline - If the best we do is a late first, so be it. (I realize that from a GM perspective, if the Rangers are in a playoff spot, at best, he's a self rental and at worst, Drury actually gives him 10 million - which IMO would be a huge mistake).
