Post-Game Talk: NJ v DC @7pm (again)

[Langway]

TJ Oshie is not going to continue shooting 4.5% at 5v5. He’s doing well, and the points at 5v5 will indeed come (assuming he moves back to the wing when Eller is back).

Though I’m not going to predict he’s going to score at the clip Kuznetsov is scoring, because Kuznetsov has been a legit force at 5v5 all season while Oshie has been merely very good.

Maybe so. Other underlying stats don't suggest much of a drop-off aside from primary points/60. To me he doesn't pass the eye test compared to past seasons and it's not just some nights playing a position he shouldn't be playing. The defense and jam remain but he doesn't seem to get himself into position for as many dangerous chances or forecheck as effectively. I don't know that I trust high danger/iG stats to truly measure quality of chances. It doesn't seem like he's getting them nearly as often and doesn't flash his typical offensive determination 5-on-5. I'm not comparing Oshie to Hagelin...just that there are limits to hustle.

Historically he's been a deadly finisher but not much of a volume guy and you wonder how that ages. It doesn't take much of a step lost for that delicate timing to fall off. He's still a battler and I'm not saying trade him at the deadline but IMO those two wingers are huge keys that need to be better on most nights. I consider them the two biggest unknowns now. Samsonov looks very good. Team defense is coming along. They're fourth in goals per game but I think the offense can still be a fair bit better. Those two on most nights are the ones that seem most off form. Again, it's very wise to put them in softer roles to gain confidence but there does seem to be some inconsistency or lost confidence between the two. Maybe some luck helps them regain it but I think there's some reason to be concerned about certain weaknesses in both of their games and whether or not they're strong ~$5.5M level wingers going forward. Of course, unlocking those two now becomes a pretty manageable top priority all things considered. Do that and they could become a real machine.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Ovie 4 goals back of Mcdavid with 5 less games Hes one Hatty away from taking the lead

 

[twabby]

Maybe so. Other underlying stats don't suggest much of a drop-off aside from primary points/60. To me he doesn't pass the eye test compared to past seasons and it's not just some nights playing a position he shouldn't be playing. The defense and jam remain but he doesn't seem to get himself into position for as many dangerous chances or forecheck as effectively. I don't know that I trust high danger/iG stats to truly measure quality of chances. It doesn't seem like he's getting them nearly as often and doesn't flash his typical offensive determination 5-on-5. I'm not comparing Oshie to Hagelin...just that there are limits to hustle.

Historically he's been a deadly finisher but not much of a volume guy and you wonder how that ages. It doesn't take much of a step lost for that delicate timing to fall off. He's still a battler and I'm not saying trade him at the deadline but IMO those two wingers are huge keys that need to be better on most nights. I consider them the two biggest unknowns now. Samsonov looks very good. Team defense is coming along. They're fourth in goals per game but I think the offense can still be a fair bit better. Those two on most nights are the ones that seem most off form. Again, it's very wise to put them in softer roles to gain confidence but there does seem to be some inconsistency or lost confidence between the two. Maybe some luck helps them regain it but I think there's some reason to be concerned about certain weaknesses in both of their games and whether or not they're strong ~$5.5M level wingers going forward. Of course, unlocking those two now becomes a pretty manageable top priority all things considered. Do that and they could become a real machine.

Points well taken, but I just can’t get worried until the underlying numbers suggest a decline and right now his numbers have been pretty much the same as they have been his entire Capitals career. If 2 or 3 more shots went in at 5v5 I’m not even sure we’re having this discussion about Oshie.

The player I’m still most worried about is Backstrom, both now and going forward. The production is there I suppose but he’s a team worst xGF% (tied with Sprong at 47%) and he isn’t even getting the difficult assignments he used to get now that the 4th line is eating all of the tough matchups. It’s also hard to ignore the recent drop off in the PP numbers teamwise and his role in that dropoff, and it’s also hard to ignore that Ovechkin has been significantly more impactful once he got away from Backstrom. Not that I am ever going to rely on my eye test because I am a terrible evaluator of hockey skill, but Backstrom seems less and less able to deal with getting aggressively pressured and I think that needs to be addressed, or at least reckoned with, if/when the Capitals face the Islanders (or Bruins) in the postseason because they aren’t going to sit back and let Backstrom operate with time and space.

The pucks are going in for Backstrom right now and that’s great, but his level of play is concerning and I’m not confident he is going to be the playoff force they need him to be this year, especially if opponents start keying in heavily on Kuznetsov. He’ll need to take advantage of the even softer assignments in that case.

 

[Calicaps]

Points well taken, but I just can’t get worried until the underlying numbers suggest a decline and right now his numbers have been pretty much the same as they have been his entire Capitals career. If 2 or 3 more shots went in at 5v5 I’m not even sure we’re having this discussion about Oshie.

The player I’m still most worried about is Backstrom, both now and going forward. The production is there I suppose but he’s a team worst xGF% (tied with Sprong at 47%) and he isn’t even getting the difficult assignments he used to get now that the 4th line is eating all of the tough matchups. It’s also hard to ignore the recent drop off in the PP numbers teamwise and his role in that dropoff, and it’s also hard to ignore that Ovechkin has been significantly more impactful once he got away from Backstrom. Not that I am ever going to rely on my eye test because I am a terrible evaluator of hockey skill, but Backstrom seems less and less able to deal with getting aggressively pressured and I think that needs to be addressed, or at least reckoned with, if/when the Capitals face the Islanders (or Bruins) in the postseason because they aren’t going to sit back and let Backstrom operate with time and space.

The pucks are going in for Backstrom right now and that’s great, but his level of play is concerning and I’m not confident he is going to be the playoff force they need him to be this year, especially if opponents start keying in heavily on Kuznetsov. He’ll need to take advantage of the even softer assignments in that case.

 

[Langway]

I'm not all that concerned about Backstrom. By some metrics maybe he should be doing better. He passes the eye test still IMO as a fairly consistent top sixer. Should they get more out of $9.2M? Probably...but he's a lifer. He's still over a point per game and his skating looks to be somewhat improved. For me it's less impatience in singling out players than projecting forward what needs to be better as team dynamics evolve. For a while it was the COVID Russians and each has found their game. Hence my chief concerns at this stage with those two arguably demoted wingers. It's a very good main problem to have with most everything else largely sorted out. The PP could be better, esp. on the road, but I'm not too concerned yet. Those two wingers have IMO been on the downturn for too long for my liking.

For Vrana when he's not scoring he needs to find other ways to make an impact, even if it's just being a more disruptive forechecker. It's something of the issue Burakovsky had. He's getting chances but for my liking, particularly at $5M+, he needs to have more substance to his game when he hits a lull rather than sort of disappearing. It's part of why he remains a playoff question mark. Determination needs to be a bigger element of his game to lock him in long-term.

 

[StrikingDistance]

View attachment 413332

 

[Ridley Simon]

Ok— so we think all of our “usual” 2nd line of Backstrom,Vrana, and Oshie are ..... bad?

is that what I’m reading?

 

[Midnight Judges]

Is anybody bad on this team right now?

 

[twabby]

Ok— so we think all of our “usual” 2nd line of Backstrom,Vrana, and Oshie are ..... bad?

is that what I’m reading?

No just Backstrom.

Spoiler

I don’t actually think he’s bad, just that his point scoring has obscured some more troubling underlying trends

 

[Corby78]

If we are a top five team in the league...... and our best center is bad...... how many good centers are in this league at all?

seriously I think advanced stats have ruined how some people watch this game.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

If we are a top five team in the league...... and our best center is bad...... how many good centers are in this league at all?

seriously I think advanced stats have ruined how some people watch this game.

No one said he was bad.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I guess Backstrom is a fascinating case then because my eyes tell me this is the best he’s looked in years. His skating looks much improved and he’s so damn smart with and without the puck. Sure, the PP is not what it once was but maybe that has more to do with the guy coaching it than it does with Backstrom?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If we are a top five team in the league...... and our best center is bad...... how many good centers are in this league at all?

seriously I think advanced stats have ruined how some people watch this game.

I think advanced stats may have replaced actually watching the games for some LOL....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No one said he was bad.

check 2 posts above yours LOL...

 

[g00n]

No one said he was bad.

The word "bad" wasn't used. Instead there were paragraphs of damning assessments with "team worst" and "concerning" and talk of being unable to handle blah blah blah etc used instead. Which is close enough.

 

[bur and 666 others]

I don't know my eyeballing says Backstrom looks so good. Smart passing, possession, everything is there I'm glad Kuzy is awakening, but I'm afraid that could be more New Jersey doing than him as they allow cross ice passes and all fancy things that Kuzy like to pull out.

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

As in many things in life, balance is needed. It's not one or the other. (Eye test vs fancy stats/analytics) A combination of both gives the best picture.

 

[tenken00]

Pretty much arguing about whether to have veal covered in a truffle reduction glaze or lobster thermidor in an cognac au poivre sauce for the 3rd meal in a 12 course dinner.

 

[txpd]

Backstrom is bad? Why am I here??

 

[twabby]

My uninformed eye test says of Backstrom that while his skating is improved, he’s still one of the worst skaters on the team. I don’t actually think it matters too much as I think playing fast is more important than skating fast, but I think people are stuck on his improvement in skating rather than the fact that after his improvement he’s still a slow skater and that he’s not nearly as strong or decisive on the puck as he used to be.

My uniformed eye test also says that he’s not making incisive cross-slot passes with any regularity, opting usually for the safer pass back to the point instead (which leads to lower danger offensive possessions).

My uninformed eye test says he’s still good, just not “1C on a contender” good. Which of course is fine, because Kuznetsov currently is playing at that level. But if Kuznetsov gets hurt, or regresses, then I’m not really confident Backstrom will be able to pick up the offensive slack.

I think he’s still a fine defensive forward. I thought he was always a bit overrated defensively in that he never really should be considered for the Selke, but I also haven’t really seen any defensive drop off.

But this could all be nonsense! I have no confidence in my eye test because I’m not a hockey professional! I do, however, know what the numbers say. And they say there is cause for concern going forward.

 

[txpd]

I guess Backstrom is a fascinating case then because my eyes tell me this is the best he’s looked in years. His skating looks much improved and he’s so damn smart with and without the puck. Sure, the PP is not what it once was but maybe that has more to do with the guy coaching it than it does with Backstrom?

The Caps are 2nd in the division in pp% and 30th in pp opps. Not sure there is anything wrong with the power play.

 

[txpd]

My uniformed eye test also says that he’s not making incisive cross-slot passes with any regularity, opting usually for the safer pass back to the point instead (which leads to lower danger offensive possessions).

My uninformed eye test says he’s still good, just not “1C on a contender” good. Which of course is fine, because Kuznetsov currently is playing at that level..

I....uh....nevermind

 

[kicksavedave]

And they say there is cause for concern going forward.

Its the Capitals. There is ALWAYS cause for concern going forward, its in our DNA.

I had major cause for concern going forward when there was a faceoff in our end with 4 seconds left in Game 5 of the Cup final. We're Caps fans, we do concern better than anyone!

 

[Ridley Simon]

The word "bad" wasn't used. Instead there were paragraphs of damning assessments with "team worst" and "concerning" and talk of being unable to handle blah blah blah etc used instead. Which is close enough.

Right.

Which means = not good = bad

 

[ALLCAPSALLTHETIME]

Its the Capitals. There is ALWAYS cause for concern going forward, its in our DNA.

I had major cause for concern going forward when there was a faceoff in our end with 4 seconds left in Game 5 of the Cup final. We're Caps fans, we do concern better than anyone!

Caps fans complain, therefore they are. Lol.