Nine things that need to break the Oilers way to be a playoff team.

[belair]

If anything the 20 goals is most likely to come from Kyle Turris over guys like Neal or Kahun. Turris was a 50-60 point guy in Ottawa before he got Nashville. I think this is a massively overlooked signing.

I wonder how long it takes before he's up on a scoring line or on the half wall of a productive PP unit. He's the offensive right shot center we've wanted since Strome was mildly disappointing. I don't see him continuing to struggle.

 

[Oilhawks]

I'm not the worried about the forward core. WIth Mcdavid and Drai as huge pieces in the middle I feel RNH,Yamamoto, Kahun, Kassian, Turris, Puljujarvi, Neal is more than enough for forward depth.

Our D worries me, theres just too many questions. Nurse will be leaned on a lot 5v5 and PK. Hopefully Bear and Jones continue to progress. Were not sure if were gonna get Avalanche or Babcock Barrie. If Larssons back doesn't hold up were in trouble physically. Maybe Bouchard surprises us this season if one of the other D falters.

Goaltending isn't ideal but I do like Koskinen. Smith gives me heart attacks but can steal a game or lose us a game.

FTFY

Barrie was back to form under Keefe, but the damage was already done. Agreed that forward corp is as good as it will be with the flat cap.

My biggest concern is goaltending work load with a condensed season. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Forsberg up for some starts and / or a trade for Kuemper or someone like that if things go south.

I really think people are sleeping on Bouchard playing his offside (or RD if an injury to RD). I think he makes the team and surprises. I imagine Holland and Tippett will want to see if he is ready for full time duty so they don't feel painted into a corner and having to sign Barrie next year.

 

[shoop]

Barrie was back to form under Keefe, but the damage was already done.

I certainly hope you are right. What do you think it was under Babcock that lead to such shite results for Barrie?

 

[KidLine93]

FTFY

Barrie was back to form under Keefe, but the damage was already done. Agreed that forward corp is as good as it will be with the flat cap.

My biggest concern is goaltending work load with a condensed season. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Forsberg up for some starts and / or a trade for Kuemper or someone like that if things go south.

I really think people are sleeping on Bouchard playing his offside (or RD if an injury to RD). I think he makes the team and surprises. I imagine Holland and Tippett will want to see if he is ready for full time duty so they don't feel painted into a corner and having to sign Barrie next year.

Barrie did have a better 2nd half so that's a positive. And he probably doent have as much pressure coming here as a free agent vs going to toronto for Kadri+. I really like Bouchard and hope he comes as advertised but all it takes is 1 injury on our back end and everyone is playing a slot too high. We really need Nurse to take a step this year with Klefbom out but I feel we know what he is as a D-man at this point.

 

[Oilhawks]

I certainly hope you are right. What do you think it was under Babcock that lead to such shite results for Barrie?

I can't say I watched all of the games he played under Babcock or anything, but what I heard was Babcock did heavy D-zone starts for Barrie and was literally trying to force him to be more of a shutdown guy. Square-peg-round-hole sort of situation. It would be like putting Larsson on PP1 and expecting him to provide immediate offensive results.

 

[Chayos]

Nine seems a bit extreme. Yes it would make us really good but to me it can be narrowed down to two or three bug things.
1. Goaltending. My guess is this season will be condensed. Teams will need to have a solid starter and a backup that can win back to backs and have a run of games if the starter is in a funk. Koski was pretty solid but it seemed that playing so many games caught up. Smith is a wildcard. Can be solid or just brutal.

2. With Klef being out for most likely the season and larson being another wildcard we need one or two of our defensemen to step up. Bouchard, Jones, or Broberg being contenders. That or we have to acquire one.

3. Special teams have to remain top 10 in the league.

Jones is an automatic oiler if Klefbom is down. It will be more Bouchard, Lagesson fighting for the 7th spot.

 

[shoop]

Jones is an automatic oiler if Klefbom is down. It will be more Bouchard, Lagesson fighting for the 7th spot.

Hopefully Bouchard, Broberg and Lagesson push Jones for a spot on the roster. Some real competition is good for the team.

 

[Joey Moss]

Neal scoring 20 would be a luxury more than something that needs to happen. I imagine we could see Neal and Chiasson rotate games a lot this season. I think 20 would be a surprise, unless he plays most of the year.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Good news about this whole pandemic thing is that flu infections have gone almost completely by the wayside.

Good chance we see McDavid play the whole season with no McFlu.

 

[Mikos87]

You need both McDavid and Draisaitl to become elite players 5v5. No more trading chances. I also think the Oil should trade out most of their defense for reliable options that can fit in with the next wave.

Team also needs to add a pest or two. When your PP is that good, you need guys that can draw penalties, especially on the bottom lines.

 

[shoop]

Team also needs to add a pest or two. When your PP is that good, you need guys that can draw penalties, especially on the bottom lines.

Trading out Khaira for a pest would be awesome. The Oilers have an excess of forwards on the roster. Khaira seems like the easiest to trade at this point. If the Oilers traded out JJ for a pest making $950K that would actually get them under the cap.

 

[Mr Positive]

Leavins pretty much nails it. I think the importance of Neal at a 20 goal pace is a bit overstated compared to Larsson’s back holding up, which didn’t make the list. Other than that, well sorted list.

yes, tbh if Neal were a healthy scratch eventually, we might be just fine if it opens a spot for Haas, Nygard, etc.

 

[YakDavid]

Jones is an automatic oiler if Klefbom is down. It will be more Bouchard, Lagesson fighting for the 7th spot.

Good call. I think its more if Jones can come in and have a Bear impact year in terms of development in the offseason. He has potential but its all about taking the next step.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

You need both McDavid and Draisaitl to become elite players 5v5. No more trading chances. I also think the Oil should trade out most of their defense for reliable options that can fit in with the next wave.

Team also needs to add a pest or two. When your PP is that good, you need guys that can draw penalties, especially on the bottom lines.

Rinse and repeat right?

Pretty sure we did this like 5 times in the last decade, maybe we should hold on to them instead of doing that.

Honestly, the only decision we need to make is Klefbom vs Nurse.

Otherwise, we can hold on to most of them.

Larsson: Expires at the end of the year - we probably walk.
Jones: 2 years left, makes basically nothing. Top 6 potential. 23 y/o
Bear: Will be on a bridge deal. Top 4 potential. 23 y/o. RD.
Barrie: He's on a pump-up deal before cashing in. We probably replace him with Bouchard next year.
Nurse: Top 4 dman with top 2 potential. On a bridge deal. 25 y/o.
Klefbom: Curious case. Injury riddled. 3 more years on a good deal. 27 y/o, expires at 30. Can't have him and Nurse.
Russell: Sacrificial lamb to Seattle.

If I'd venture to guess what our D would look like over the next 3 years it'd probably be this:

2021 (assuming Klefbom out for entire year):
Nurse - Bear
Jones - Larsson
Russell - Barrie
Lagesson

2021/2022:
Nurse - Bear
Klefbom - Bouchard
Broberg - Jones
Lagesson

2022/2023:
Nurse - Bear
Broberg - Bouchard
Samorukov - Jones
X

X it's a 7th dman, this can be acquired through trade or development. I imagine Lagesson either proves he belongs in the NHL and we trade him away or he doesn't and goes through FA in 2022.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

yes, tbh if Neal were a healthy scratch eventually, we might be just fine if it opens a spot for Haas, Nygard, etc.

Neal more then likely scores 15+ goals next season. IMO Haas and Nygard are not even close to his caliber of player.

 

[The Nuge]

9. Neal needs to keep scoring at a 20 goal pace.

Yep. Even if he’s a PP specialist at this point, we still need him scoring, because his caphit prevents us from bringing in a different 20 goal scorer

8. Dominik Kahun finding chemistry with McDavid or Draisaitl and scoring 18 to 25 goals.

Feels like a stretch. Especially because we have a pair of 40+ goal guys at center. 15 goals and 40 points is more what we should be hoping for imo.

7. Kyle Turris needs to play at the level of a 3C.

The knock on Turris was he wasn’t producing like a top 6 center from the 3rd line, but he was still on pace for 40+ points. That’s great for a guy making 1.65 million.

6. Dave Tippett.

He made the conference finals year 5 in Dallas and year 3 in Arizona. He’s not a coach players get sick of playing for. Listen to his former players talk about him years later, and they’re still ready to run head first through a brick wall if he asked them too.

5. One of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto needs to be a top 6 forward.

Definitely a concern. Yamo was great last year, but his numbers have to go down. The question is to what extent, and can he start shooting more to offset it. Can Pulju step in and put up 30-50 points? We only need one to step up and we’ll be ok, but we said the same thing in 18/19, and they combined for 11 points

4. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones.

Jones only needs to play bottom pairing , with a veteran presence. That’s not much of a concern. Barrie is getting insanely underrated because of a bad stint under Babcock. He is not a PP specialist. He’s best at even strength, and can play big minutes. He’s our best right handed dman going into next year. If Jones can play top 4, great. If not, you let Russell play with Barrie, and let Larsson cover for Jones.

Bear is definitely a question mark. He’s a solid #4 imo, but we need him to be able to keep up his calm, poised game on the top pairing with Nurse.

3. Darnell Nurse.

Agree 100% with Leavins. This is the year Nurse has to prove he can be a true top pairing dman. Klefa was the only guy I was confident saying that about in years past, and he’s not there to shelter Nurse now. Barrie will take a bigger role than people think, but he can’t replace Klefa.

2. McDavid & Draisaitl

They’re the 2 best players in the world. Of course we’ll hurt if they get injured. Any team built top heavy is going to hurt when losing a star because you don’t have as much quality depth. We do have the best depth we’ve had in years though, so it’s less of a cause for concern than previously.

1. Goaltending.

Goaltending was a strength for us right up until the play in round when they completely let us down, and arguably single handedly lost the series. I’m willing to give them a pass for the 4 games coming off a break though. Anyone could struggle in a shortened series with that much time off

 

[Zenos]

To repeat my question which you quoted but didn't answer. Wasn't most of Jones' time last season spent as a RD?

I don’t have the TOI stats, but yeah I’m pretty sure Jones put in a lot of time on the right.

But that was before Klefbom went down and the team added Barrie. So unless some other injuries happen (or klef miraculously returns), I think it’s nearly certain that Jones will be pencilled in on the left. Regardless of what happened last year.

 

[Mikos87]

Rinse and repeat right?

Pretty sure we did this like 5 times in the last decade, maybe we should hold on to them instead of doing that.

How's that worked out for you?

 

[Anarchism]

Rinse and repeat right?

Pretty sure we did this like 5 times in the last decade, maybe we should hold on to them instead of doing that.

Honestly, the only decision we need to make is Klefbom vs Nurse.

Otherwise, we can hold on to most of them.

Larsson: Expires at the end of the year - we probably walk.
Jones: 2 years left, makes basically nothing. Top 6 potential. 23 y/o
Bear: Will be on a bridge deal. Top 4 potential. 23 y/o. RD.
Barrie: He's on a pump-up deal before cashing in. We probably replace him with Bouchard next year.
Nurse: Top 4 dman with top 2 potential. On a bridge deal. 25 y/o.
Klefbom: Curious case. Injury riddled. 3 more years on a good deal. 27 y/o, expires at 30. Can't have him and Nurse.
Russell: Sacrificial lamb to Seattle.

If I'd venture to guess what our D would look like over the next 3 years it'd probably be this:

2021 (assuming Klefbom out for entire year):
Nurse - Bear
Jones - Larsson
Russell - Barrie
Lagesson

2021/2022:
Nurse - Bear
Klefbom - Bouchard
Broberg - Jones
Lagesson

2022/2023:
Nurse - Bear
Broberg - Bouchard
Samorukov - Jones
X

X it's a 7th dman, this can be acquired through trade or development. I imagine Lagesson either proves he belongs in the NHL and we trade him away or he doesn't and goes through FA in 2022.

Yes this forces us not just to look at this year but next as well.
Our defense could be very different for 21/22.
Barrie probably gone, Klefbom seriously in doubt, Larsson's back, Russell sacrificed as you say.

Nurse .....Bear
Jones .....Bouchard
Lagesson....Vet
Broberg/Samorukov (AHL but up and down)

This looks like dreamland but who knows??

 

[Broberg Speed]

article can be summed up... points 1 though 9: this player has to be good, with the exception of point 6: the coach has to be good

he nailed it

 

[OfCorsiDid]

How's that worked out for you?

?

The Oilers have a nasty habit of trading away players when they have a down season or when “needs need to be filled”. Dubnyk and Petry come to mind.

 

[bone]

I understood that was your opinion the first time you posted it.

To repeat my question which you quoted but didn't answer. Wasn't most of Jones' time last season spent as a RD?

Looking at his WOWY's 5 on 5.

182:54 with Russell (either side)
150:55 with Larsson (left)
112:07 with Klefbom (right)
98:12 with Benning (Left)
23:22 with Nurse (right)
13:54 with Bear (left)
4:34 with Green (Left)

Looking at the time away from Russell, he spent about 132 minutes more on the left side than the right, so it comes down to how much of the 182 with Russell he played right.

From recollection Tippett preferred Jones on the right side with Russell, but I'm not sure if that was every game and every shift. If you assumed all of his time with Russell was Right, then 54% of his time was on the right, but I'd imagine him and Russell switched up sides a lot with them both being comfortable on either side.

Overall, I'd say he split his time pretty close to evenly left vs right last year, but it seems likely he will be on the left more this year the way the depth chart currently looks with 3 locks on the right side, and a rookie showing potential to make the team based on his overseas play so far this year. Whereas the left side has 2 locks and a couple of prospects elsewhere that don't look quite as impactful as what Bouch could be for this current year.

This all of course assumes no Klefbom this year. Larsson's back is also the x-factor here, but if Bouch is the guy that stays up, it still keeps Jones on the left.

 

[Little Fury]

*opens article, looks for any mention of 5v5 depth scoring, finds none, closes article*

 

[Mikos87]

?

The Oilers have a nasty habit of trading away players when they have a down season or when “needs need to be filled”. Dubnyk and Petry come to mind.

Maybe Petry and Dubnyk had a different life experience in those other cities that caused them to elevate their play. Imo your top 4 isn't going to help you on a long playoff run. I believe the city of Edmonton deserves a contender. We know what hasn't worked. My point is this: What if you traded out those players for lesser talented players who are more proven, and support them with Jones, Broberg, Lagesson, and Bouchard? You have good defensive prospects that are seasoned pros who are physically mature.

In other words, instead of Klefbom v Nurse, can Bear make it, or worrying about how to replace Larsson. Why not trade the first three, especially if Larsson walks? If you get three NHL middle pair guys that can defend 5v5, PK and get the puck out, maybe sign a veteran or two, and let the kids play on the bottom pair I think you take a step towards being a year in and year out contender.

 

[BudBundy]

*opens article, looks for any mention of 5v5 depth scoring, finds none, closes article*

*opens article, ignores Neal, Kahun, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, and Turris being specifically mentioned, rushes to the internet to register fake indignation*

fixed it for ya.