Nine things that need to break the Oilers way to be a playoff team.

[shoop]

From Kurt Leavins' regular Sunday column.

I thought Kurt made some really good points this week so I started a thread. Here's my quick summary, and opinion, of his nine things.

9. Neal needs to keep scoring at a 20 goal pace. Fair assessment. I think that is likely to happen barring injury. Neal was looking like a 25 to 30 goal scorer before he got injured. Still would have probably been in the 20 to 25 range even with the injury.

8. Dominik Kahun finding chemistry with McDavid or Draisaitl and scoring 18 to 25 goals. This definitely could happen. Kahun scored 13 in a full season with the Blackhawks then 12 goals last year in 56 games. 18 to 25 goals in a full season in the top 6? Very possible.

7. Kyle Turris needs to play at the level of a 3C. Is Turris capable of playing at that level? Hopefully he is motivated to prove Nashville made a mistake with the buyout.

6. Dave Tippett. Can he continue to get the team to buy into his vision? It is a really good question. Both Dallas and Phoenix dropped off in his second season at the helm, but they were still both playoff teams in those seasons.

5. One of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto needs to be a top 6 forward. This is really a question of Yamamoto being able to play at the level he showed last season. It is a really good question. If Yamamoto slumps then the Oilers are in trouble, but I think/hope he will be ok.

4. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. Can they be our top two pairing RDs this season? That is a really good question. I think Jones is capable of playing in the second pairing. Nurse - Bear will likely be the top pairing. IMO this is the most important question for the Oilers. If Nurse and Bear can play like a good top pair that makes everything else fall into place from the rest of the D to goaltending.

3. Darnell Nurse. Addressed in point 4, but the top pairing really is that important. I suspect Nurse will have a really good year. So much depends on Klefbom's health. If Klefbom recovers to the point where he can play towards the end of the season the Oilers will, hopefully, have a decision to make on which of the two to keep. The only way I see Nurse and Klefbom both on the roster going into 2021-22 is if Klefbom misses the entire 2020-21 season with his injury and his status is still unclear going into next season.

2. McDavid & Draisaitl Will they both be healthy? That's a reasonable question, especially given that McD had covid and was coming off a major injury last season. Leavins makes a reasonable point that any team is going to be hurt losing one of their two best players. Given that the Oilers have two Hart trophy winners that is of course a reasonable question.

1. Goaltending. Of course this is the number one concern for the Oilers. Tippett tried but things didn't work out. Leavins makes a good point that last season's goaltending was good enough. It wasn't great, but if the Oilers get the same level of goalie play this season as they did last season, before the re-start, they should be ok.

Click to read more...

 

[BudBundy]

Leavins pretty much nails it. I think the importance of Neal at a 20 goal pace is a bit overstated compared to Larsson’s back holding up, which didn’t make the list. Other than that, well sorted list.

 

[McDNicks17]

Leavins pretty much nails it. I think the importance of Neal at a 20 goal pace is a bit overstated compared to Larsson’s back holding up, which didn’t make the list. Other than that, well sorted list.

I was thinking the same thing.

The rest of the D core's lives will be a lot easier if Larsson can pair up with Jones or Russell and share some of the minutes against top competition.

 

[SwedishFire]

From Kurt Leavins' regular Sunday column.

I thought Kurt made some really good points this week so I started a thread. Here's my quick summary, and opinion, of his nine things.

9. Neal needs to keep scoring at a 20 goal pace. Fair assessment. I think that is likely to happen barring injury. Neal was looking like a 25 to 30 goal scorer before he got injured. Still would have probably been in the 20 to 25 range even with the injury.

Its worrysome - all his goals is close the goaltender, a garbage goal- scorer nowadays. Can he fins the shooting again - then yes. Likley? 55% to happen.

8. Dominik Kahun finding chemistry with McDavid or Draisaitl and scoring 18 to 25 goals. This definitely could happen. Kahun scored 13 in a full season with the Blackhawks then 12 goals last year in 56 games. 18 to 25 goals in a full season in the top 6? Very possible.

Could happen very well. A 20 year somethibg coming out of developement and has NHL routine. 80% chance to happen.


7. Kyle Turris needs to play at the level of a 3C. Is Turris capable of playing at that level? Hopefully he is motivated to prove Nashville made a mistake with the buyout.

He is a good player. I think he can. 85% chance he will.

6. Dave Tippett. Can he continue to get the team to buy into his vision? It is a really good question. Both Dallas and Phoenix dropped off in his second season at the helm, but they were still both playoff teams in those seasons. 95% chance.

5. One of Puljujarvi and Yamamoto needs to be a top 6 forward. This is really a question of Yamamoto being able to play at the level he showed last season. It is a really good question. If Yamamoto slumps then the Oilers are in trouble, but I think/hope he will be ok.
Puljujärvi - I guess not. A 3rf line complex player. Yam yes.

4. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. Can they be our top two pairing RDs this season? That is a really good question. I think Jones is capable of playing in the second pairing. Nurse - Bear will likely be the top pairing. IMO this is the most important question for the Oilers. If Nurse and Bear can play like a good top pair that makes everything else fall into place from the rest of the D to goaltending.
The hard quest. But I rely more on Ethan Bear tjan Nurse. Jones? Eow though task.

3. Darnell Nurse. Addressed in point 4, but the top pairing really is that important. I suspect Nurse will have a really good year. So much depends on Klefbom's health. If Klefbom recovers to the point where he can play towards the end of the season the Oilers will, hopefully, have a decision to make on which of the two to keep. The only way I see Nurse and Klefbom both on the roster going into 2021-22 is if Klefbom misses the entire 2020-21 season with his injury and his status is still unclear going into next season.

Ser above. Really doubtful here.40% chance?

2. McDavid & Draisaitl Will they both be healthy? That's a reasonable question, especially given that McD had covid and was coming off a major injury last season. Leavins makes a reasonable point that any team is going to be hurt losing one of their two best players. Given that the Oilers have two Hart trophy winners that is of course a reasonable question.

1. Goaltending. Of course this is the number one concern for the Oilers. Tippett tried but things didn't work out. Leavins makes a good point that last season's goaltending was good enough. It wasn't great, but if the Oilers get the same level of goalie play this season as they did last season, before the re-start, they should be ok

 

[Jumptheshark]

nine things from me

1) Better goaltending
2) MORE HEART
3) More goals from guys not named McDavid or Leon
4) Better D from the FWDs
5) D actually playing better
6) Our coach not getting out coached. Tipper has coached a lot and we all questioned his handling of the goalies in the playoff
7) Neal and Kassian playing in the system and better
8) Better defined roles from all players
9)More and better drugs for us the fans

 

[shoop]

Leavins pretty much nails it. I think the importance of Neal at a 20 goal pace is a bit overstated compared to Larsson’s back holding up, which didn’t make the list. Other than that, well sorted list.

I agree. Larsson's back holding up is more important than Neal getting 20 goals.

 

[Aerchon]

Good article but I don't like the way it breaks things down.

For me team defense (missing Klef) and the way Tippett subsequently handles McDrai is THE key to the teams success.

The team is built like a complete run and gun score 4+ a night to have any chance of winning. That can work in the regular season but almost certainly does not in the playoffs.

McDavid, Nurse, and Draisaitl to a lesser extent all have such a focus on offense over defense. Tippett allows or coaches this into the team that the stars are allowed to be irresponsible yet the rest of the team plays like there are not allowed to let a single goal against in.

Tippett either needs to apply his philosophy to everyone to be responsible or give the bottom 6 more free rein so the whole team can feast on opponents. Turris gives us legitimate 3 scoring lines and our team has two great power plays as well.

Breaking up that top power play is stupid but running McDrai ragged in ice time by having them out there all the time as well as a ton of 5v5 time is also stupid. McDavid especially looks too exhausted to pull together regular back checking and down low zone duty as a center.

I love our forward depth. I love our defense but losing Klefbom is traditionally a death sentence for the team. I "think" we finally have the depth to maybe not crumble without him but that requires a lot of progress/good play from our group.

Tippett was the key to our success last year in the regular season but also THE key reason we lost in the post season. The team has changed significantly and he needs to adapt... something he didn't do well in the playoffs.

I think if McDavid and Nurse can lead by example and up their two way game, likely at the expense of some points, the team would follow suit. The result, optimistically I know, would be a power house from top to bottom.

Edit: Goaltending is always the #1 concern for most/all teams but is typically also a result of team defense. The only thing to mention about goaltending is the hope that this year Tippett utilizes Koskinen as a #1 if his play is as good/or better as it was last year. Very concerned that Tippett views Smith as the #1 goalie despite Koskinen looking and statistically play so much better than Smith.

 

[YakDavid]

Nine seems a bit extreme. Yes it would make us really good but to me it can be narrowed down to two or three bug things.
1. Goaltending. My guess is this season will be condensed. Teams will need to have a solid starter and a backup that can win back to backs and have a run of games if the starter is in a funk. Koski was pretty solid but it seemed that playing so many games caught up. Smith is a wildcard. Can be solid or just brutal.

2. With Klef being out for most likely the season and larson being another wildcard we need one or two of our defensemen to step up. Bouchard, Jones, or Broberg being contenders. That or we have to acquire one.

3. Special teams have to remain top 10 in the league.

 

[Zenos]

The only way I see Nurse and Klefbom both on the roster going into 2021-22 is if Klefbom misses the entire 2020-21 season with his injury and his status is still unclear going into next season.

What does the board make of this statement? Is it really that prudent to move one of our better defenders? Why not keep both? Seems like a bit of a jumping the gun move, unless I'm missing something

 

[Stoneman89]

I don't think you can make a judgement on Klefbom (in relation to Nurse) when he comes back. Way too soon. Guys that have had major shoulder surgery take a fair bit of time to fully recover, even after they are deemed fit to play. Probably a few months into the following season, you will have a definitive idea as to what calibre of player we are going to have.

 

[Aerchon]

What does the board make of this statement? Is it really that prudent to move one of our better defenders? Why not keep both? Seems like a bit of a jumping the gun move, unless I'm missing something

The flat cap will still be around and there is a very good chance big picture we can't afford him moving forward.

I think Klefbom's future status is primarily based on his physical state when/if he returns. I don't really imagine he will be effective keeping him around moving forward if he has an aggressive degenerative condition, aka bad arthritis. Just from the little I know of this talking to a Nurse who had aggressive/early arthritis he really should retire asap. It only gets worse, their was no treatment (10+ years ago), and intense physical activity worsens the condition. If he retires now, maybe.. Maybe when he is 50 he is not in constant unbearable pain if it is already unmanageable at 27 years old.

Let me be clear. I do not have any real insight into Klefbom's situation. I'm am just going off what this Nurse friend of mine told me years ago. But it was extremely gloom and doom with zero effective treatments. She made it sound like she was looking forward to a very painful existence down the road.

If Klefbom chooses to keep playing and can do so at the level he played in previous years we obviously try to keep him around. Maybe treatments and/or surgery can even make him better than before. But with the diagnosis and Holland actively planning at least a year without him it doesn't look good.

If he has early onset aggressive arthritis I suspect this is something known by him and the organization. It is often hereditary. The Oilers are well stocked in promising LD so as terrible as it is hopefully the Oilers can recover from losing what is imo their best defenseman.

 

[shoop]

The flat cap will still be around and there is a very good chance big picture we can't afford him moving forward.

That was my thinking in posting it. In a flat cap the Oilers won't be able to afford both Klefbom and Nurse in 2021-22.

 

[McDNicks17]

That was my thinking in posting it. In a flat cap the Oilers won't be able to afford both Klefbom and Nurse in 2021-22.

$9.7M doesn't seem too bad for your two best defensemen.

 

[shoop]

$9.7M doesn't seem too bad for your two best defensemen.

*If* Nurse and Klefbom are our two best defensemen after the 2020-21 season. Seems far from guaranteed at this point.

 

[ujju2]

From Kurt Leavins' regular Sunday column.
4. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. Can they be our top two pairing RDs this season? That is a really good question. I think Jones is capable of playing in the second pairing. Nurse - Bear will likely be the top pairing. IMO this is the most important question for the Oilers. If Nurse and Bear can play like a good top pair that makes everything else fall into place from the rest of the D to goaltending.

Why would Jones be a RD? He'll be on the left side...

 

[shoop]

Why would Jones be a RD? He'll be on the left side...

He can play both sides. Wasn't most of his play last season as a RD?

 

[McDNicks17]

He can play both sides. Wasn't most of his play last season as a RD?

Would you play him over Barrie+Larsson instead of Russell+Lagesson though?

 

[29Beast97Mode]

Considering we dont even know what next season will look like, it might be a lot easier for the oilers to make the playoffs then you think.

 

[Zenos]

That was my thinking in posting it. In a flat cap the Oilers won't be able to afford both Klefbom and Nurse in 2021-22.

I dunno. Neither guy should be prohibitively expensive. And I'm not sure who you'd be replacing either one's minutes with. It'll probably be Broberg sooner or later, but I don't think he's there yet.

Obviously Klefbom's injury situation and health going forward is the big wildcard here. If he looks done, you definitely have to move on. But if he returns to form? I think you try your hardest to make it work with the cap.

 

[Chabot84]

We don’t need Neal to score 20 goals.

 

[KidLine93]

I'm not the worried about the forward core. WIth Mcdavid and Drai as huge pieces in the middle I feel RNH,Yamamoto, Kahun, Kassian, Turris, Puljujarvi, Neal is more than enough for forward depth.

Our D worries me, theres just too many questions. Nurse will be leaned on a lot 5v5 and PK. Hopefully Bear and Jones continue to progress. Were not sure if were gonna get Avalanche or Leafs Barrie. If Larssons back doesn't hold up were in trouble physically. Maybe Bouchard surprises us this season if one of the other D falters.

Goaltending isn't ideal but I do like Koskinen. Smith gives me heart attacks but can steal a game or lose us a game.

 

[Anarchism]

Holland took at least two swings at getting a goalie and missed ...maybe 3 swings. So he bought some LW and centre experiments instead. Maybe a couple months in he digs something out of the dirt somewhere.
Turris is definitely not your ideal or usual centre for 3rd duty. The boy can still skate and has fairly good hands. I think down the stretch he ends up playing more time than either Kahun or Ennis up on LW with McDavid.
If Kahun can even play 3LW it will be a great signing.
JJ needs to get his head out of his a__ and quit trying to be a scoring winger and accept the roles assigned to him.
Possibly depending on where Bouchard is ....we might need to sign an older vet that can still play...a Hainsey type.

Is it possible ...by whatever the second half is that the pairings could be...

Nurse ....Bear
Jones.....Larsson
Russell....Barrie
Lags.....Bouchard

Larsson needs some carbon fibre injections LOl.

 

[ujju2]

He can play both sides. Wasn't most of his play last season as a RD?

We have Bear-Larsson-Barrie on the right. Jones will be playing on the left side.

 

[shoop]

We have Bear-Larsson-Barrie on the right. Jones will be playing on the left side.

I understood that was your opinion the first time you posted it.

To repeat my question which you quoted but didn't answer. Wasn't most of Jones' time last season spent as a RD?

 

[shoop]

Would you play him over Barrie+Larsson instead of Russell+Lagesson though?

Probably not. Larsson's back is the biggest question at this point.