Player Discussion Nikolay Goldobin Pt. II

[Melvin]

You make it sound worse the way you've framed your arguments. 3 since November....he only played 3 games in January.

I think it's ludicrous to dock 2nd assists like they weren't important as well.

He had a 7 point in 10 game stretch in December.

There is a bias, he's held to a different standard, I'm surprised you can't see it when watching....or are you not watching and just looking at the date (not trying to be a dick with this statement, I know you've stated you aren't into the games as much as the data, so I'm wondering if this is the case).

I prefer to speak with data because it is objective. Having arguments that end up being my eyes vs. your eyes don't go anywhere and I prefer to not waste my time.

Secondary assists for forwards are noise. If you want to "count" them then fine but it is still is worth pointing out when it drives a significant percentage of a player's production. It's almost always a red flag if a player's point total is 50% secondary assists.

No doubt he has talent but at some point you have to produce. He's held to a "different standard" because he's a purely offensive player with terrible production all context considered.

 

[4Twenty]

I prefer to speak with data because it is objective. Having arguments that end up being my eyes vs. your eyes don't go anywhere and I prefer to not waste my time.

Secondary assists for forwards are noise. If you want to "count" them then fine but it is still is worth pointing out when it drives a significant percentage of a player's production. It's almost always a red flag if a player's point total is 50% secondary assists.

No doubt he has talent but at some point you have to produce. He's held to a "different standard" because he's a purely offensive player with terrible production all context considered.

I definitely don't consider myself a Goldy-Truther, and these people are out there I just feel only mentioning primary points and severely discounting secondary points when you're framing your arguement is too strong and doesn't give the nuance that should be there.

I wouldn't say he's held to a difference standard because he has terrible production either, but if his production was better the leash would be longer. He's held to a different standard because he's loose with the puck and doesn't always give the appearance of trying hard.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It's just incredible to me that people continue to go on about the skill of this player and how it doesn't matter that he can't play defense because he is so good offensively and blah blah blah and it's like, the dude has 2 more points than Antoine Roussel at this point. He's 3 up on Jake. And that's mostly because of PP time and also mostly because of secondary assists.

At this point he's practically Markus Granlund in 2016-17 who is getting spoonfed a ton of icetime with the best players and PP time and putting up barely okay offensive numbers, except people are weirdly attached to him for reasons I cannot fathom.

Will he catch up to Granlund's amazing 32 point finish? He has 3 in his last 12 so it should be an exciting finish!

Mel, once you start arguing as hard against Granlund, Motte and Schaller, let me know.

Nobody is championing Goldobin (that I can see). It's a push to expect equal treatment from the coach... and some of the fans, it seems.

 

[Melvin]

But again, doesn’t the data show Pettersson benefiting substantially from playing with him?

And hasn’t his offensive output been dashed by an incredibly low on-ice shooting percentage?

Substantially? I am very skeptical.

Here is some data for Pettersson with every player:

	With	TOI	ShotAttemptFor	ShotAttemptAgainst	SAT%	GoalFor	GoalAgainst	GF%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BROCK BOESER	435:17	512	311	62%	42	12	78%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN	383:25	412	291	59%	31	9	78%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BEN HUTTON	245:04	249	216	54%	17	11	61%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	DERRICK POULIOT	222:59	233	179	57%	17	7	71%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TROY STECHER	215:49	216	180	55%	15	10	60%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ALEXANDER EDLER	198:54	249	127	66%	19	4	83%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BO HORVAT	192:03	297	75	80%	25	4	86%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ERIK GUDBRANSON	169:47	158	187	46%	9	11	45%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	CHRISTOPHER TANEV	144:05	123	149	45%	11	3	79%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	LOUI ERIKSSON	142:46	152	126	55%	5	7	42%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JOSH LEIVO	142:05	150	114	57%	10	7	59%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JAKE VIRTANEN	104:08	123	92	57%	7	7	50%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	SVEN BAERTSCHI	68:21	107	39	73%	10	3	77%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ALEX BIEGA	66:00	67	52	56%	2	3	40%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ANTOINE ROUSSEL	53:37	53	60	47%	4	3	57%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	MARKUS GRANLUND	36:34	33	30	52%	0	1	0%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TYLER MOTTE	25:09	15	28	35%	0	0
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TIM SCHALLER	13:16	4	19	17%	0	0
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JAY BEAGLE	7:50	2	17	11%	0	1	0%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BRANDON SUTTER	5:24	5	1	83%	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He's Pettersson....he gets results with everyone. Except Gudbranson.

 

[Melvin]

Mel, once you start arguing as hard against Granlund, Motte and Schaller, let me know.

Nobody is championing Goldobin (that I can see). It's a push to expect equal treatment from the coach... and some of the fans, it seems.

Have you ignored my 7 posts in this thread where I have stated that Goldobin should be playing over those players? They are crap, no doubt. This is the Goldobin thread.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Have you ignored my 7 posts in this thread where I have stated that Goldobin should be playing over those players? They are crap, no doubt. This is the Goldobin thread.

I don't ignore anything you post, you know that.

My hope now is that Goldobin is traded so I don't have to talk about him.

 

[4Twenty]

Have you ignored my 7 posts in this thread where I have stated that Goldobin should be playing over those players? They are crap, no doubt. This is the Goldobin thread.

None of your recent posts make it seem like he should be in the lineup over those others.

 

[Melvin]

For the record, Goldobin played 18 minutes last night, more than everyone but Boeser. Played 2:21 of PP time. Schaller sat.

 

[Melvin]

None of your recent posts make it seem like he should be in the lineup over those others.

Why? Because I don't think he's very good? Lots of players suck, and that's why they've all been scratched at some point or another (except Motte, who is probably the worst of the four but Green has a crush on for some reason.)

Granlund scored a goal last night; he and Goldobin now have the same amount of ES points. Pretty crazy, hey?

 

[CherryToke]

It would be nice if Goldobin finally got a bit of luck and went on a scoring streak and built some trade value. I know he's a terrible finisher and all around terrible player but he's due for a lucky streak riiiight?

 

[absolute garbage]

His main problem, as we saw again last night, is that he misses the net on 30% of his shot attempts, despite usually being in prime shooting positions. Only four players in the NHL miss the net more often.

In addition to this, and this is anecdotal, but it feels like he's the league leader in getting absolutely robbed by the goaltender. He has an open net but the goalie somehow scrambles to make the save.

Just a terrible shot. Can't finish at all.

 

[Melvin]

In addition to this, and this is anecdotal, but it feels like he's the league leader in getting absolutely robbed by the goaltender. He has an open net but the goalie somehow scrambles to make the save.

Just a terrible shot. Can't finish at all.

The one against Hart the other night - he just shot it right into him. That was almost 100% on Goldobin.

 

[Melvin]

The only reason I keep jumping into this thread is because I bristle at the notion that Goldobin is "unfairly treated" and that there is a "bias" against offensive players who can't defend.

My point is - forget defense - Goldobin hasn't been very good at offense:

1) His raw point total is not very good (24 points in 47 games.)
2) His point total is largely affected by his PP time (15 ES points.)
3) His point total is inordinately fueled by secondary assists (8 primary points at ES.)
4) A lot of his production came at the beginning of the season (3 points in his last 12 games.)
5) He has benefited largely by playing with Elias Pettersson more than most players have.

So yeah, when you're not producing and you **** the bed defensively, the coach is going to sit you. I don't see this as in any way unreasonable or unfair, or indicative of a coach who has some sort of grudge. When you are basically only not a liability when you play with EP40, and your production even with EP40 isn't very good, you're pretty much not an NHL player.

Green does not have a "bias" against skill players who can't defend. Brock Boeser is a skill player who defends poorly and Green plays him a lot. Why do you suppose that is? What could be the difference?

 

[4Twenty]

The one against Hart the other night - he just shot it right into him. That was almost 100% on Goldobin.

See this is when I start to think you're being unfair, Hart got his arm on it. It was a great save.

 

[4Twenty]

The only reason I keep jumping into this thread is because I bristle at the notion that Goldobin is "unfairly treated" and that there is a "bias" against offensive players who can't defend.

My point is - forget defense - Goldobin hasn't been very good at offense:

1) His raw point total is not very good (24 points in 47 games.)
2) His point total is largely affected by his PP time (15 ES points.)
3) His point total is inordinately fueled by secondary assists (8 primary points at ES.)
4) A lot of his production came at the beginning of the season (3 points in his last 12 games.)
5) He has benefited largely by playing with Elias Pettersson more than most players have.

So yeah, when you're not producing and you **** the bed defensively, the coach is going to sit you. I don't see this as in any way unreasonable or unfair, or indicative of a coach who has some sort of grudge. When you are basically only not a liability when you play with EP40, and your production even with EP40 isn't very good, you're pretty much not an NHL player.

Green does not have a "bias" against skill players who can't defend. Brock Boeser is a skill player who defends poorly and Green plays him a lot. Why do you suppose that is? What could be the difference?

Thank you for framing your full arguement. It's much better for discussion this way.

Can you quantify what you mean by "shit the bed defensively" because that's part of the bias I see and when other players fail to tie up a stick, or don't chase back hard they aren't met with the short leash. That's where the bias/short leash thing ends for me.

Now to move the topic somewhere else, are you seeing any indications that his shooting% could rise. Seems pretty low right now. I'm not as skilled or smart with the numbers as you are, but is luck playing a factor at all? Could this be like Hutton last year, where the scratches and the short leash absolutely neutered his confidence?

I don't want to give him any more excuses, just something I'm wondering about.

 

[Melvin]

Thank you for framing your full arguement. It's much better for discussion this way.

Can you quantify what you mean by "**** the bed defensively" because that's part of the bias I see and when other players fail to tie up a stick, or don't chase back hard they aren't met with the short leash. That's where the bias/short leash thing ends for me.

Because other players do other things (at least in Green's mind - I know Motte sucks.) Goldobin gets a short leash because his complete lack of production means he can't afford to be making bad defensive plays.

Brock Boeser back-checks lazily and doesn't tie any one up? Who tf cares, he scores a goal every damn game to make up for it. That's the way it *should* work. It's like asking why, if Emerson Etem had a bad training camp and got waived then why didn't Boeser get waived after a bad training camp? Of course different players are held to different standards. It makes no sense to not run the team that way.

Now to move the topic somewhere else, are you seeing any indications that his shooting% could rise. Seems pretty low right now. I'm not as skilled or smart with the numbers as you are, but is luck playing a factor at all? Could this be like Hutton last year, where the scratches and the short leash absolutely neutered his confidence?

I don't want to give him any more excuses, just something I'm wondering about.

Yes, it almost certainly will. He is a career 12% shooter, which would give him 9 goals on the season instead of 6.

I don't think I said that he won't ever be able to produce, just that he hasn't so far and when you're a purely offensive player getting primo minutes and you don't produce anything, it makes sense to have you on a short leash when you start making bad defensive plays.

Having said that, I still don't think he should sit in favour of Schaller, Granlund, etc. The reason he does though is not "bias against skill players" but because Green thinks - rightly or wrongly - that those players contribute defensively. Goldobin when he's not producing contributes nowhere.

 

[4Twenty]

Because other players do other things (at least in Green's mind - I know Motte sucks.) Goldobin gets a short leash because his complete lack of production means he can't afford to be making bad defensive plays.

Brock Boeser back-checks lazily and doesn't tie any one up? Who tf cares, he scores a goal every damn game to make up for it. That's the way it *should* work. It's like asking why, if Emerson Etem had a bad training camp and got waived then why didn't Boeser get waived after a bad training camp? Of course different players are held to different standards. It makes no sense to not run the team that way.



Yes, it almost certainly will. He is a career 12% shooter, which would give him 9 goals on the season instead of 6.

This Boeser vs Goldy example is an extreme case. I'm more discussing the glut of similarly flawed bottom 9 forwards the team has, in terms of short leash.

I get it on one hand, but on the other I don't. I guess ultimately maybe it just shows Green cares, but I remember being just as mad when Willie did it to Kassian while letting others get away with the same mistakes.

Anyways, like ROE has stated, we waste too much time talking about GOldy as is. I should bump the Hutton thread, that guy deserves some praise.

 

[Melvin]

This Boeser vs Goldy example is an extreme case. I'm more discussing the glut of similarly flawed bottom 9 forwards the team has, in terms of short leash.

I get it on one hand, but on the other I don't. I guess ultimately maybe it just shows Green cares, but I remember being just as mad when Willie did it to Kassian while letting others get away with the same mistakes.

Anyways, like ROE has stated, we waste too much time talking about GOldy as is. I should bump the Hutton thread, that guy deserves some praise.

I don't think it's a waste of time. I'd rather argue about Goldobin with you guys than have the seven billionth Benning drafting discussion with the "bUt He DrafteD PetTerSson!" crew.

As I said yesterday, Schaller has been scratched way more often than Goldobin, and Granlund, who has also been scratched, leads the team in PK time. Green obviously thinks he's an asset in that role. Again, rightly or wrongly, as long as he thinks Granlund is a great penalty killer it makes sense to play him over Goldobin without it being "bias against skill."

Motte - no idea. No clue what the deal is there. But he does have more goals than Goaldy.

 

[4Twenty]

I don't think it's a waste of time. I'd rather argue about Goldobin with you guys than have the seven billionth Benning drafting discussion with the "bUt He DrafteD PetTerSson!" crew.

As I said yesterday, Schaller has been scratched way more often than Goldobin, and Granlund, who has also been scratched, leads the team in PK time. Green obviously thinks he's an asset in that role. Again, rightly or wrongly, as long as he thinks Granlund is a great penalty killer it makes sense to play him over Goldobin without it being "bias against skill."

Motte - no idea. No clue what the deal is there. But he does have more goals than Goaldy.

If we're docking Goldy's secondary assists, I get to dock Granlund and Motte's Empty Net goals. LOL

 

[Johnny Canucker]

With the ZM call up today, Writing is on the wall for Goldy. I’ve got a good story about him. We shared a box for the Drake concert Edler / Hutton there too. Aqua man was in his box , about 13 boxes over with some friends. Seemed weird Francesco Aquilini was at a drake concert but whatever. Anyways there’s a lounge in between the boxes and there was an exchange. Pretty funny. I won’t say what it was till Goldy is traded. Not fair to him.

 

[Eddy Punch Clock]

Curious to see who gets benched tonight for Zack. If it is Goldobin then yeah, I'd say his day are numbered here... if they already aren't.

I kind of doubt it, but is Goldobin waiver exempt?

 

[Krnuckfan]

Substantially? I am very skeptical.

Here is some data for Pettersson with every player:

	With	TOI	ShotAttemptFor	ShotAttemptAgainst	SAT%	GoalFor	GoalAgainst	GF%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BROCK BOESER	435:17	512	311	62%	42	12	78%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN	383:25	412	291	59%	31	9	78%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BEN HUTTON	245:04	249	216	54%	17	11	61%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	DERRICK POULIOT	222:59	233	179	57%	17	7	71%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TROY STECHER	215:49	216	180	55%	15	10	60%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ALEXANDER EDLER	198:54	249	127	66%	19	4	83%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BO HORVAT	192:03	297	75	80%	25	4	86%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ERIK GUDBRANSON	169:47	158	187	46%	9	11	45%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	CHRISTOPHER TANEV	144:05	123	149	45%	11	3	79%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	LOUI ERIKSSON	142:46	152	126	55%	5	7	42%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JOSH LEIVO	142:05	150	114	57%	10	7	59%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JAKE VIRTANEN	104:08	123	92	57%	7	7	50%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	SVEN BAERTSCHI	68:21	107	39	73%	10	3	77%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ALEX BIEGA	66:00	67	52	56%	2	3	40%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	ANTOINE ROUSSEL	53:37	53	60	47%	4	3	57%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	MARKUS GRANLUND	36:34	33	30	52%	0	1	0%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TYLER MOTTE	25:09	15	28	35%	0	0
ELIAS PETTERSSON	TIM SCHALLER	13:16	4	19	17%	0	0
ELIAS PETTERSSON	JAY BEAGLE	7:50	2	17	11%	0	1	0%
ELIAS PETTERSSON	BRANDON SUTTER	5:24	5	1	83%	0	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He's Pettersson....he gets results with everyone. Except Gudbranson.

What website do you use to find these stats? I'd be interested in seeing this for gudbranson

 

[lush]

Really dying to know what kind of trade offers have been floating around for Goldy. One minute I think a 7th rounder would be great, the next minute I think he could be a decent warm body for training camp (that maybe is more motivated next season).

But since Murphy's law applies first and foremost here, Benning will trade him for a 7th and then he'll go on to win a Conn Smythe. If we keep him he'll be signed by the KHL before the reg season is even over

 

[Melvin]

What website do you use to find these stats? I'd be interested in seeing this for gudbranson

I collect the data myself. It's something I've been working on for the past 6 weeks or so.

I am building a website around it but it's a work in progress. Gudbranson is here (click Team Mates) :

http://nhltools.com/Player.php?id=3998&team=VAN&seasonfrom=20182019&seasonto=20182019

Keep an eye on the site if this interests you as I am building it out and adding more stuff to it every day.

 

[PG Canuck]

I'm officially done with this experiment. Please make it end.