Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[sipowicz]

Ehlers doesn’t even look like the same player he was when he came into the league, used his speed to stretch plays, drive the net, actually scored, was a threat whenever he was on the ice.

Now, never a threat to score, uses his speed and loses the puck most of the time he touches it, no longer drives the net, guy looks lost out there most of the time! Guy is being paid as a top forward on the team with no results to show for it.

 

[Halberdier]

Ehlers doesn’t even look like the same player if was when he came into the league, used his speed to stretch plays, drive the net, actually scored, was a threat whenever he was on the ice.

Now, never a threat to score, uses his speed and loses the puck most of the time he touches it, no longer drives the net, guy looks lost out there most of the time! Guy is being paid as a top forward on the team with no results to show for it.

That guy is being paid almost as much as Little this season, but out of TOP-6, paid or not, who are producing as they should?

CSW are +2 -5 = -3 with bad corsi & xGF%,
ELL are +3 -6 = -3 with nearly as bad corsi and meh xGF%
ESW are +2 -3 = -1 with positive corsi but looking really bad defensively
LSW are +1 -1 = 0 with better underlying numbers but got scrapped immediately as Laine couldn't score but hit the post.

(5-on-5 numbers. Empty netters or other stat padders do not count).

So far NO TOP-6 formation has been working to ANY extent this season, unless you consider CLT as a TOP-6 formation. They have been worth every penny and much more.

Either Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Little turned into pile of crap over the summer or there is something Maurice has done wrong, including but not limited to 1) roster/lineup decisions and 2) TOI distribution.

 

[Adam da bomb]

That guy is being paid almost as much as Little this season, but out of TOP-6, paid or not, who are producing as they should?

CSW are +2 -5 = -3 with bad corsi & xGF%,
ELL are +3 -6 = -3 with nearly as bad corsi and meh xGF%
ESW are +2 -3 = -1 with positive corsi but looking really bad defensively
LSW are +1 -1 = 0 with better underlying numbers but got scrapped immediately as Laine couldn't score but hit the post.

(5-on-5 numbers, empty netters or other stat padders do not count).

So far NO TOP-6 formation has been working to ANY extent this season, unless you consider CLT as a TOP-6 formation. They have been worth every penny and much more.

Either Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Little turned into pile of crap over the summer or there is something Maurice has done wrong, including but not limited to 1) roster/lineup decisions and 2) TOI distribution.

I'd argue several lines have looked good with Connor so I'd say he's producing.

 

[Adam da bomb]

That guy is being paid almost as much as Little this season, but out of TOP-6, paid or not, who are producing as they should?

CSW are +2 -5 = -3 with bad corsi & xGF%,
ELL are +3 -6 = -3 with nearly as bad corsi and meh xGF%
ESW are +2 -3 = -1 with positive corsi but looking really bad defensively
LSW are +1 -1 = 0 with better underlying numbers but got scrapped immediately as Laine couldn't score but hit the post.

(5-on-5 numbers, empty netters or other stat padders do not count).

So far NO TOP-6 formation has been working to ANY extent this season, unless you consider CLT as a TOP-6 formation. They have been worth every penny and much more.

Either Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Little turned into pile of crap over the summer or there is something Maurice has done wrong, including but not limited to 1) roster/lineup decisions and 2) TOI distribution.

Too many stars not enough role players like Perrault?

 

[suihkukone]

Say what you like, but Ehlers still knows how not to score on breakaways. I'd like to see him pot one or two in Helsinki. I'll be watching.

 

[Jack722]

Either Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Little turned into pile of crap over the summer or there is something Maurice has done wrong, including but not limited to 1) roster/lineup decisions and 2) TOI distribution.

It could also be that the systems we play are counterable. Now that the Jets have 'arrived' and made some noise, teams are watching tapes and breaking down how to neutralize them, and it's working.

Not saying this is for sure the case but it's a possibility.

 

[Gm0ney]

Say what you like, but Ehlers still knows how not to score on breakaways. I'd like to see him pot one or two in Helsinki. I'll be watching.

I was excited to see the Jets on a breakaway but then noticed it was Ehlers and just sat back down...

 

[Howard Chuck]

It could also be that the systems we play are counterable. Now that the Jets have 'arrived' and made some noise, teams are watching tapes and breaking down how to neutralize them, and it's working.

Not saying this is for sure the case but it's a possibility.

I would go along with this....

 

[LowLefty]

That guy is being paid almost as much as Little this season, but out of TOP-6, paid or not, who are producing as they should?

CSW are +2 -5 = -3 with bad corsi & xGF%,
ELL are +3 -6 = -3 with nearly as bad corsi and meh xGF%
ESW are +2 -3 = -1 with positive corsi but looking really bad defensively
LSW are +1 -1 = 0 with better underlying numbers but got scrapped immediately as Laine couldn't score but hit the post.

(5-on-5 numbers, empty netters or other stat padders do not count).

So far NO TOP-6 formation has been working to ANY extent this season, unless you consider CLT as a TOP-6 formation. They have been worth every penny and much more.

Either Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Connor, Ehlers and Little turned into pile of crap over the summer or there is something Maurice has done wrong, including but not limited to 1) roster/lineup decisions and 2) TOI distribution.

I'd agree on the TOI assessment - especially line one and every more specifically, Wheeler.
He strikes me as the type who may think it's his job to do it all - that and the C on his chest, might be keeping him on the ice too long.
Maurice needs to get that sorted out -

After changes, the other half of the top 6 is coming along - I'd leave it and let it get even better.

 

[Halberdier]

I'd argue several lines have looked good with Connor so I'd say he's producing.

Connor has looked good offensively, from time to time.

But after all, he has exactly the same 5-on-5 goal difference than Laine this season +5 -8 = -3, so he is also not really producing, not like you expect from TOP-6, or really TOP-3.

 

[Halberdier]

I'd agree on the TOI assessment - especially line one and every more specifically, Wheeler.
He strikes me as the type who may think it's his job to do it all - that and the C on his chest, might be keeping him on the ice too long.
Maurice needs to get that sorted out -

After changes, the other half of the top 6 is coming along - I'd leave it and let it get even better.

Yup, Wheeler is trying way too much, thus achieving almost nothing 5-on-5 and actually doing everything backwards. Add a pile of stupid penalties on top of that, and there is your summary of his first 12 games, 5-on-5. On PP and propably empty netters, it's a different story.

On top of my head Wheeler has now -5 or -6 5-on-5, same as Ehlers, while Little has even a little bit more, "leading" the team. Not numbers you would expect from TOP-6 on a contender. Also Wheeler has been jumping to the bench after being way too deep forechecking on o-zone which maybe has evaded him from a couple of minuses (one occasion I know as a fact), but is also hurting the team.

Practically the only line winning their game is now CLT. Every single line of TOP-6 are losing. First and foremost Scheifele and Wheeler should be separated.

 

[surixon]

Ehlers is a victim of poor percentages more so then anything.

He is still crushing it from a CF% and XGF% stand point as he leads the team in both metrics. He also has an extremely low PDO at .9 which is where all the consternation is coming from. He has both an unlucky on ice shot percentage of just over 5 and a terrible on ice save percentage of .85. The combination is making him appear worse then he is from both an offensive and defensive stand point. I think he will perform once the save and shooting percentages normalize.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Connor has looked good offensively, from time to time.

But after all, he has exactly the same 5-on-5 goal difference than Laine this season +5 -8 = -3, so he is also not really producing, not like you expect from TOP-6, or really TOP-3.

He was also on the top line getting much more playing time than Laine. None of the lines have worked but the brief time he was with Perrault little and Ehlers he was good.
That doesn't mean individually he hasn't been good.

 

[Duke749]

Ehlers is a victim of poor percentages more so then anything.

He is still crushing it from a CF% and XGF% stand point as he leads the team in both metrics. He also has an extremely low PDO at .9 which is where all the consternation is coming from. He has both an unlucky on ice shot percentage of just over 5 and a terrible on ice save percentage of .85. The combination is making him appear worse then he is from both an offensive and defensive stand point. I think he will perform once the save and shooting percentages normalize.

He also seems to be put in some tough situations line wise. I get the feeling Mo likes to use him to help prop up others.

 

[DashingDane]

He also seems to be put in some tough situations line wise. I get the feeling Mo likes to use him to help prop up others.

Agree. Seems like he is being used in a similar way as Frenchy where you shuffle them around the lineup. That works for Frenchy because he is a veteran that knows the league and his role (though I'd be pissed if I was him) but I don't think it's a good approach for a young player struggling with confidence. He was already inconsistent and that role just emphasizes that imo.

 

[Ducky10]

Ehlers is a victim of poor percentages more so then anything.

He is still crushing it from a CF% and XGF% stand point as he leads the team in both metrics. He also has an extremely low PDO at .9 which is where all the consternation is coming from. He has both an unlucky on ice shot percentage of just over 5 and a terrible on ice save percentage of .85. The combination is making him appear worse then he is from both an offensive and defensive stand point. I think he will perform once the save and shooting percentages normalize.

With Little right behind him.

 

[Halberdier]

He was also on the top line getting much more playing time than Laine. None of the lines have worked but the brief time he was with Perrault little and Ehlers he was good.
That doesn't mean individually he hasn't been good.

Yup, Connor has been playing with much better players and much more consistent TOI, and therefore his numbers should be better not similar or actually worse fancy-stat wise. That he just hasn't shows that also he is simply not producing 5-on-5.

 

[LowLefty]

He also seems to be put in some tough situations line wise. I get the feeling Mo likes to use him to help prop up others.

That might be a bit of a reach -
He's been in a horrible slump - more likely he gets moved around to spark his game through the support of others (not the other way around)

 

[LowLefty]

Yup, Connor has been playing with much better players and much more consistent TOI, and therefore his numbers should be better not similar or actually worse fancy-stat wise. That he just hasn't shows that also he is simply not producing 5-on-5.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the second line can do with Connor - this line looks like it will soon be picking up better minutes than the earlier configuration.

 

[Halberdier]

I'm looking forward to seeing what the second line can do with Connor - this line looks like it will soon be picking up better minutes than the earlier configuration.

Second that. Let's see what's the lineup after the next PoMo-blender, but as for some irrational reason Scheifele & Wheeler are not separated, and as CSW was not a success story, most likely Connor will continue on second line with Little and either Perreault or Laine.

Regarding Connor, I would like to see Connor-Scheifele-Laine or even Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers, as to my eyes Scheifele has been so much better than his hip jointed partner this season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yup, Connor has been playing with much better players and much more consistent TOI, and therefore his numbers should be better not similar or actually worse fancy-stat wise. That he just hasn't shows that also he is simply not producing 5-on-5.

Except you already pointed out Schief and Wheeler have not been good. Who has consistently been good is Little stats show that. More Toi gives the other team to score. Your stats look good if you play 5 minutes of meaningless hockey. And it's zero-zero hockey. Connor is one of the leaders in points.

 

[Duke749]

That might be a bit of a reach -
He's been in a horrible slump - more likely he gets moved around to spark his game through the support of others (not the other way around)

But his play hasn’t been the issue. Just the results. You can play well and not get results and vice versa.

 

[LowLefty]

But his play hasn’t been the issue. Just the results. You can play well and not get results and vice versa.

Not saying his play was the issue -
The "spark" I refer to might simply be playing with new line mates.
I agree - I don't think he's playing poorly but he did need to get it going and his most recent move seemed to have helped.

 

[varano]

Im surprised at this point that Ehlers hasn't really turned things around. Is he playing with different guys vs. last year?

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Im surprised at this point that Ehlers hasn't really turned things around. Is he playing with different guys vs. last year?

He has always been very streaky.