This is a good point. Going through our prospect list realistically based on current development curves we can expect 10-12 our our prospects to be NHL ready players within 3-4 years. With approx another 1/2 dozen with an outside chance. Even with an aggressive introduction of rookies into the lineup (2-3 per season) it is unlikely there will be room for all of them no matter how well they all develop. IMO to delay the introduction of the most ready in favour of journeymen depth players makes no sense for the organization. If needed as the TD approaches those types of players are easy to pick up at modest prices.
Agree with the bolded.
Apparently the decision was made to go with prospects, therefore no Stemp, Tlusty etc. Hali, Fraser, Cormier were signed for the Moose - I sincerely hope! If they were signed instead of Stemp, etc then we are in some trouble.
2+ rookies/yr are required just to replace aging players or the rookies from recent years who never quite make it.
first of all, i think you're a bit optimistic. i can't think of any NHL club that has 2-3 rookies/year making the club AND is challenging for a playoff spot. that means that you're turning over almost half your lineup in 2-3 years. Detroit a few years ago brought up their rookies due to a large # of injuries. and then after that? lineup stability.
look, we're all gung ho about our prospects. even Leafs fans are drooling over their shallow prospect pool (2 higher end prospects and then a lot of question marks). we have 2 solid, legit forward prospects (Connor, Ehlers), 1 solid D prospect (Moz) and 1 high end goalie prospect (Helle). 3 of those prospects are probably 2 years away from making the team. this year, we'll have Ehlers and maybe, just maybe, Copp on the team.
the issue with not having journeymen players will be seen with Copp. what do you do with Copp as a 4th line centre? the 4th line will get, what? 5ish minutes a game? does that allow a rookie player to develop? wouldn't he better be served playing in the AHL, where he can play against men and get 15-20 min/game?
That's all the solid, legit prospects we have? No Armia, no Petan? 3 of those 4 are probably 2 years away? Which 3? Is the 4th one 3+ years away? That is one very pessimistic assessment of our prospect pool. It is also very pessimistic towards our 4th line. With Copp having only a slim chance of making the team our 4th line is going to be even worse than last year.
With Cop and another decent player on the 4th with Thor we are looking at more then 5 min/gm.
I wouldn't dismiss Armia as a prospect that is probably ready to compete for a spot. He's had a couple of AHL seasons. He was terrific with Rochester before coming over to the Ice Caps (where he had some injury issues). Chevy specifically mentioned that he might get a look with the big club last year, but then traded for Tlusty and Stempniak for the playoff run.
I think the Jets will start the season with 2-3 rookies (Ehlers, and Copp and/or Armia). Petan is a dark horse. I think that even if they start in the AHL, Morrissey and Petan will likely see stretches with the big club if there are injuries.
I like Armia's potential but it is an exaggeration to say he was 'terrific' with Rochester. In his 2nd AHL season he had 25 pts in 33 games with them. That is sub-terrific territory. For comparison O'Dell had 55 pts in 59 games in his 2nd AHL season and he was apparently never taken seriously as a prospect. I think Armia's time with Rochester last year could more accurately be described as 'adequate'.
If the Jets start the season with less than 3 rookies it means we have a crap 4th line again with all the ramifications of that. 2 rookies still leaves one of Hali/Fraser/Peluso getting regular duty on the 4th line.
i think Armia will be a call-up. think Petan will see mid-season playing time based on inevitable injuries.
Moz - depends on the Buff situation. but Pardy will be the next guy in the pecking order and he's perfect for that role.
again, becoming a true playoff team this year will have a strong correlation to the # of rookies that will be a regular part of the roster. 5 rookies playing on this team will likely mean that we're out of the playoffs
First only 1 rookie is going to make the team out of TC then we jump to 5? So 4 are getting significant injury replacement time. I have to hope that it is the 4th line plugs who are being injured.
Assuming Buff stays here and that Stuart is an untouchable asset then Morrissey's time will depend on injuries.
We have 8 top 9 players. We need 1 rookie to fill that out. We have 1 4th line player, Thor. We need 2 more not named Halischuk, Fraser or Cormier. They could come from among the 8 top 9 players we have if a rookie can push someone down. They could have come from the FA pool but that doesn't look like happening. That leaves rookies. We need 2. That is 3 rookies needed. I think you have it backwards. Less than 3 rookies making the Jets out of TC means very poor playoff chances. If we start with 3 there are 2 others liable to get substantial NHL time as injury replacements so that is 5. With good goaltending the 5 rookie team makes the playoffs. The 1 rookie team does not unless the goaltending is better than merely good.
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