Prospect Info: Nikolai Kovalenko RW (2018 171th overall)

[ulvvf]

He's something like 9 months older than Denisenko, a little smaller, not as smooth or explosive, and he's less of a puck hound / less-tenacious. Plus, even though the kid is crafty in his own right, Denisenko's hands are just stupid. He can do things with the puck that I dunno if anyone on our team other than MacK can. Kovalenko, though a skilled SOB, doesn't have world class hands like that. Denisenko's basically just a supe'd up version with more ferocity against the puck.

At least from my limited viewings. As I really didn't watch much youth hockey this year at all...world cup year...

But if denisenko is such a talent, why do he not have more points in a junior league? Based on my limited viewings, i would say denisenko is more of a floater than Kovalenko, Kovalenko forecheck and backcheck very hard, always seem to eager to recover the puck which result in him having the puck more, which is maybe the reason why he has more points and better PPG than denisenko, despite denisenko having better tools. Kovalenko simple is more involved in the game. But i agree, denisenko hands are elite and he is smoother, overall denisenko has better tools and i would take him over Kovalenko. But i am not sure if i think the difference is that big so it justify that one is taking mid 1 round and the other mid 6 round.

 

[cgf]

But if denisenko is such a talent, why do he not have more points in a junior league? Based on my limited viewings, i would say denisenko is more of a floater than Kovalenko, Kovalenko forecheck and backcheck very hard, always seem to eager to recover the puck which result in him having the puck more, which is maybe the reason why he has more points and better PPG than denisenko, despite denisenko having better tools. Kovalenko simple is more involved in the game. But i agree, denisenko hands are elite and he is smoother, overall denisenko has better tools and i would take him over Kovalenko. But i am not sure if i think the difference is that big so it justify that one is taking mid 1 round and the other mid 6 round.

Production =/= talent, especially with regards to prospects. Even if we ignore the specifics...Denisenko being younger, not as thickly built, getting moved around more, etc...the simple problem with what you're doing is that different kids develop differently, & that alone is enough to explain their production gap. No need to speculate about Denisenko being a floater...as he's been a tenacious little bastard whenever I watched him. Kovalenko was just better suited for producing in the MHL this year & had more consistent linemates (IIRC)...but he doesn't have the same kind of special upside that Denisenko does. So, even though I'm very happy with this pick and our organization's new late-round-drafting strategy, I'd have been even more excited to pick Denisenko 155 picks earlier.

This is why I always make such a big deal out of projecting talent & on -court/-pitch/-ice intelligence & creativity. As well as keeping in mind where a player is on their development curve, as some kids are just closer to their ceiling than others even if they are younger. Thus the #s are always secondary to me. Production is nice & kids do have to show they can produce when put in great positions to do so...and are ready to do so, but that doesn't always happen for teenagers.

Like with Shvyry, his MHL production is insane...like truly only matched by the elite russian talents...but what really makes him exciting isn't those MHL #s but the hands, shot & creativity he has...and that he's not a smurf doesn't hurt either.

 

[ulvvf]

Production = talent, especially with regards to prospects. Even if we ignore the specifics...Denisenko being younger, not as thickly built, getting moved around more, etc...the simple problem with what you're doing is that different kids develop differently, & that alone is enough to explain their production gap. No need to speculate about Denisenko being a floater...as he's been a tenacious little bastard whenever I watched him. Kovalenko was just better suited for producing in the MHL this year & had more consistent linemates (IIRC)...but he doesn't have the same kind of special upside that Denisenko does. So, even though I'm very happy with this pick and our organization's new late-round-drafting strategy, I'd have been even more excited to pick Denisenko 155 picks earlier.

This is why I always make such a big deal out of projecting talent & on -court/-pitch/-ice intelligence & creativity. As well as keeping in mind where a player is on their development curve, as some kids are just closer to their ceiling than others even if they are younger. Thus the #s are always secondary to me. Production is nice & kids do have to show they can produce when put in great positions to do so...and are ready to do so, but that doesn't always happen for teenagers.

Like with Shvyry, his MHL production is insane...like truly only matched by the elite russian talents...but what really makes him exciting isn't those MHL #s but the hands, shot & creativity he has...and that he's not a smurf doesn't hurt either.

As i said, i also would pick Denisenko over Kovalenko. But that was not the question. The question was more, is the difference between them so big so it justify one being picked in the mid 1 round and the other mid 6 round. It should be a pretty big difference then.

"not as thickly built"

Should not really matter much in a junior league, i see plenty of small thin guys dominate in junior leagues. Plus it is not a huge different there between them 2.

You should respect the stats alot, it is not everything, espically not in young age, but it still say alot on its own. Look at the elite players in NHL, almost all of them had good production during their draft year. So not having so great stats is a big red flag. It is good to complement looking at the numbers with actually seeing at the player play as well, but always respect the stats.

 

[cgf]

As i said, i also would pick Denisenko over Kovalenko. But that was not the question. The question was more, is the difference between them so big so it justify one being picked in the mid 1 round and the other mid 6 round. It should be a pretty big difference then.

"not as thickly built"

Should not really matter much in a junior league, i see plenty of small thin guys dominate in junior leagues. Plus it is not a huge different there between them 2.

You should respect the stats alot, it is not everything, espically not in young age, but it still say alot on its own. Look at the elite players in NHL, almost all of them had good production during their draft year. So not having so great stats is a big red flag. It is good to complement looking at the numbers with actually seeing at the player play as well, but always respect the stats.

That's why I included the "So, even though I'm very happy with this pick...I'd have been even more excited to pick Denisenko 155 picks earlier" part of my post. The gap between the two of them may not be 155 picks big, but Denisenko's talent validated a top 10 pick IMO. So even though Kovalenko's talent is a steal in the 6th, I'd have rather gotten Denisenko where we got Kaut...even though I've already fallen in love with Kaut's attitude.

Kovalenko's more powerful build is just a different aspect to their games that happened to serve him well in the MHL, as he could get more greasy points on his line.


*shrug* I accept that not everyone will agree, but I'm also pretty certain at this point that paying attention to the context around production while focusing on projecting talent/intelligence is more informative than putting much weight in production...so you probably won't sway me either.

Sure the Hart candidates almost always had great #s in their draft years, but none of the guys on the avs' dominant top line had all that great of production in their draft years...hell MacK is the only one whose production wasn't questioned when drafted, and even the people's MVP's draft year totals don't stack up to those of other 1st overall picks.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Came in here thinking there was some good news that maybe son of Andrei was coming to NA. See argument over talent and numbers. Leaves.

 

[ulvvf]

That's why I included the "So, even though I'm very happy with this pick...I'd have been even more excited to pick Denisenko 155 picks earlier" part of my post. The gap between the two of them may not be 155 picks big, but Denisenko's talent validated a top 10 pick IMO. So even though Kovalenko's talent is a steal in the 6th, I'd have rather gotten Denisenko where we got Kaut...even though I've already fallen in love with Kaut's attitude.

Kovalenko's more powerful build is just a different aspect to their games that happened to serve him well in the MHL, as he could get more greasy points on his line.


*shrug* I accept that not everyone will agree, but I'm also pretty certain at this point that paying attention to the context around production while focusing on projecting talent/intelligence is more informative than putting much weight in production...so you probably won't sway me either.

Sure the Hart candidates almost always had great #s in their draft years, but none of the guys on the avs' dominant top line had all that great of production in their draft years...hell MacK is the only one whose production wasn't questioned when drafted, and even the people's MVP's draft year totals don't stack up to those of other 1st overall picks.

Rantanen and Landeskog had good stats in their draft year. Landeskogs production was maybe questioned, because he was a 2oa pick, but otherwize he stats where good, much better than denisenkos for sure.

It is very rare to say the least that players with similar production of denisenkos become elite players in NHL, i can not find anyone, at least not among forwards.

When it comes to Kovalenko, i think alot depends on how dedicated he is on making it to NHL. Most 6 rounders do not make it, but if he is dedicated i think he has a good shoot on at least becoming a NHL regular.

 

[McMetal]

Rantanen and Landeskog had good stats in their draft year. Landeskogs production was maybe questioned, because he was a 2oa pick, but otherwize he stats where good, much better than denisenkos for sure.

It is very rare to say the least that players with similar production of denisenkos become elite players in NHL, i can not find anyone, at least not among forwards.

When it comes to Kovalenko, i think alot depends on how dedicated he is on making it to NHL. Most 6 rounders do not make it, but if he is dedicated i think he has a good shoot on at least becoming a NHL regular.

"Sixth rounder" is a meaningleas concept. I would have happily picked him in the early third round and remain shocked that he fell as far as the sixth. Meanwhile Iskhakov was picked in the second, and I'll bet he was on a number of do not draft lists around the league. Drafting is an imprecise science at best.

Kovalenko had better production last year in the MHL than Marchenko and Morozov, both picked in the second round. It comes down to personal preference by the teams. They don't pay that much attention to production, it's a question of watching them and trying to figure out what kind of NHL player they would be. Denisenko has some rather unique qualities not often associated with Russian players, like a relentless motor and an aggressive streak, in addition to his elite hands. That's why he got picked so high despite his numbers not being amazing.

I honestly have no idea why Kovalenko is a sixth round pick, he shouldn't have been. Now that it's done though, it hasn't changed anything about him as a player.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Loko vs Ottawa Kovalenko is playing for Loko. English announcer as well.

 

[Kshahdoo]

Was named the tournament's MVP with 3+5 in 5 games.

 

[Mr Zappalanche]

Any word if he starts in the KHL tomorow or any time soon?

 

[henchman21]

Just got his first KHL goal!

 

[Avs_19]

Just got his first KHL goal!

 

[henchman21]

Kovalenko had a good game, but it should be noted he is clearly towards the bottom of the lineup.

 

[member 116861]

I'm down with drafting Russian forwards.

 

[agentblack]

Just like his old man

 

[S E P H]

Prospect Need to Know: Colorado's Kovalenko starts hot

 

[filip85]

2 goals today against Vitjaz.

 

[Sticktape]

All 21 points from this season. Slick player for sure.

 

[Cake Malar]

As always its tough to tell from just the highlights, but he does seem to forecheck well and find space in the dirty areas. For anyone that has watched a lot of him, does that generally track with his style of play? Or are the highlights exaggerating? Either way I'm pretty excited about this kid. Maybe we finally found a gem in the later rounds!

 

[Pokecheque]

I'd really like to see a player like this eventually don an Avs jersey and be a useful player, but I'm convinced he'll be trade bait in the next season or two.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

I think he's my favorite Avs prospect from outside the 1st round at the moment(Excluding Timmins who was eessentially a 1st rounder).

 

[Avs9296]

Would be a major bonus if he can be a solid 3rd liner for us in a couple years or so on his entry level deal. Once Mack, Landy and Makar need new deals we are going to need cheap bottom six talent on entry level deals.