Confirmed with Link: Nikita Gusev (VGK) to NJD (2020 3rd, 2021 2nd)

[Blackjack]

I'm going to be honest... when you compared Kovalchuk to Gusev I stopped reading. They are not comparable.

?? I was responding to devilsblood's comparison.

 

[Billdo]

?? I was responding to devilsblood's comparison.

Ah I misread that.

 

[devilsblood]

I'm going to be honest... when you compared Kovalchuk to Gusev I stopped reading. They are not comparable.

?? I was responding to devilsblood's comparison.

Ya, I made that comparison really just to show that NHLe isn't really a great indicator.

My main point is this, 50+ points is not something to be dissapointed by. To another point, I also don't think 60 is unreasonable. That's quite possible I imagine.

But expecting 70 or more. That's a lot to ask.

I mean, if he is not on the first PP unit, 50 would be very respectable.

 

[Call Me Al]

i agree it is completely unrealistic to expect 70 points from gusev before even watching him play

 

[My3Sons]

i agree it is completely unrealistic to expect 70 points from gusev before even watching him play

Meh. There was one maniac who escaped from his padded cell, got out of his straight jacket, overpowered the guards, ran past the butterfly nets, and predicted hat tricks for Lovejoy every game. 70 points for Gusev sight unseen seems sane in comparison.

 

[Slay]

Kovy outproduced Gusev the year prior to this past one. Kovy's NHLe according to that calculator was 74 points, in actuality he produced 34 points in 64 gp's.

NHLe isn't necessary that far off as Kovalchuk had many 74+ seasons in the NHL. But not every season is the same. Kopitar went from 92 to 60 pts on the same team. Not sure what kind of Kovalchuk we'll see next year but he'll be 36 which is also a factor.

High majority of those who consistely put up around point per game in the RSL/KHL produced well in the NHL but not always right off the bat.

 

[RangerDoggo]

Kovy was an offensive black hole last season, he made everyone around him worse.

 

[Hisch13r]

Kovy was an offensive black hole last season, he made everyone around him worse.

Kovy was leading the team in scoring with 11 in 13 before Desjardins was hired. After the hiring he had 23 in 52 and his TOI dropped by almost 4 minutes. I'm not saying Kovy would've stayed on pace for 69 pts but it's clear he wasn't being used in a way that optimized him under Desjardins

 

[Triumph]

Kovalchuk will probably put up better numbers next season but he won't be a good player - he's still bad territorially.

The problem with NHLe regarding a team like SKA is that it can't account for how good that team was - they had a +130 goal differential in 57 games in 2017-18. They scored almost a goal more per game than the next best team. So playing for SKA is not really an accurate reflection of the league.

 

[OmNomNom]

translation to NHL isn't an exact science, and the issue here is comparing kovalchuk to gusev

there's a height, weight, and playstyle difference between the two, not to mention a 9-year age difference

 

[Wingman77]

Kovy was an offensive black hole last season, he made everyone around him worse.

It is hard to gauge whether it was more of him or more of LA's mess of circumstances they went through. Likely a combination of both, but it wasn't exactly an ideal scenario for most on that team.

As far as Gusev goes, I don't think that something in the 40 point range is an unrealistic expectation. Less would be understandable and more would be just what we could have asked for.

 

[Hisch13r]

It is hard to gauge whether it was more of him or more of LA's mess of circumstances they went through. Likely a combination of both, but it wasn't exactly an ideal scenario for most on that team.

As far as Gusev goes, I don't think that something in the 40 point range is an unrealistic expectation. Less would be understandable and more would be just what we could have asked for.

I think 40 would be quite low for Gusev. I see 50 as the low end and don't see him ending up lower than that

 

[Wingman77]

I think 40 would be quite low for Gusev. I see 50 as the low end and don't see him ending up lower than that

In looking at 40 points, expectations are trying to be tempered a bit as some easing into the NHL pains could come along as he adjusts to a new country, league, rink, and all that stuff. Maybe he slides right in like a glove and looks as if he has played his entire career over in the NHL which would be great, but setting the bar on the higher end for him could potentially come with some disappointing expectations, so trying to factor that into account as well.

 

[Hisch13r]

In looking at 40 points, expectations are trying to be tempered a bit as some easing into the NHL pains could come along as he adjusts to a new country, league, rink, and all that stuff. Maybe he slides right in like a glove and looks as if he has played his entire career over in the NHL which would be great, but setting the bar on the higher end for him could potentially come with some disappointing expectations, so trying to factor that into account as well.

50 pts for him is tempering expectations to me

 

[MartyOwns]

50 points for goose would be great. unless we’re counting shot assists as points, in that case he should have at least 80

 

[devilsblood]

NHLe isn't necessary that far off as Kovalchuk had many 74+ seasons in the NHL. But not every season is the same. Kopitar went from 92 to 60 pts on the same team. Not sure what kind of Kovalchuk we'll see next year but he'll be 36 which is also a factor.

High majority of those who consistely put up around point per game in the RSL/KHL produced well in the NHL but not always right off the bat.

What Kovy did in the NHL 7+ years ago is irrelevant.

I do agree that guys can have large point swings, but I'm pretty confident in saying Kovy is no longer a 70 point player in the NHL.

 

[PizzaAndPucks]

I see a Gusev-Hughes-Palms line in my nightmares.

If that comes in to existence by November half of the posters here will be annihilating Sevs/PK/Ty/Butch/whoever is unfortunate enough to be paired with that trio.

And Cory and Mac? May as well put me between the pipes.

You need at least one forward on a line who's competent defensively. Especially if it's your '2nd'.

That line is out there to put up numbers. With all that skill they would be dangerous to play against if you are the opposing team. I can understand the risk of putting 2 rookies on the same line to start the season but at the same time that line could do some damage on offense regardless of how it can be a weak defensive line.

 

[Bleedred]

What Kovy did in the NHL 7+ years ago is irrelevant.

I do agree that guys can have large point swings, but I'm pretty confident in saying Kovy is no longer a 70 point player in the NHL.

I was hoping this past season finally proved that Kovalchuk isn’t that good or special anymore. I’m actually glad this is the first offseason that he’s been gone that people aren’t pining for him on this forum.

 

[Hisch13r]

That line is out there to put up numbers. With all that skill they would be dangerous to play against if you are the opposing team. I can understand the risk of putting 2 rookies on the same line to start the season but at the same time that line could do some damage on offense regardless of how it can be a weak defensive line.

Gusev is 27 and has played pro hockey for nearly a decade. Him being a “rookie” is irrelevant. The reason that line might not happen is Hall-Nico-Palms is one of the best in the league

 

[unknownbrother]

I agree you have to pay for top talent, but it always seems the Rags do it, and do it, and do it again, even when they dont have to. Panarin is 28 (this season) and they're in a rebuild, it just seems they wanted the headlines in the newspapers.

And to get casual fans bums in seats.

 

[Slay]

What Kovy did in the NHL 7+ years ago is irrelevant.

I do agree that guys can have large point swings, but I'm pretty confident in saying Kovy is no longer a 70 point player in the NHL.

If we are trying to assess Gusev's production (especially long term) through 35 y.o. Kovalchuk's one season on a struggling team, then I think Kovalchuk's past success is relevant, as even his recent KHL production (where he outproduced Gusev) was very smilar to the one when he was still in his NHL prime (lockout season and right after). Without Kovalchuk on the team Gusev's production didn't drop a bit and even rose, what also rose is the gap between second best producer on the team. I mean this type of [consistent] production is usually an indicator of translating well to the NHL as Ovechkin, Malkin, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Panarin, Radulov and even Dadonov showed.

I think if Gusev has the same role as he did in Russia i.e. top minutes and 1st PP unit then he should do well, but many Russians were not having that right away (Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Kucherov) but then again they were quite younger than current Gusev. Not sure how much of a factor his size might be as he will be the smallest Russian in the league.

 

[Triumph]

I was hoping this past season finally proved that Kovalchuk isn’t that good or special anymore. I’m actually glad this is the first offseason that he’s been gone that people aren’t pining for him on this forum.

The guy who claimed he would score 40 goals if he came back to the NHL hasn't been seen much around these parts. Although if he manages to finish out this contract he might hit 40 goals.

 

[JK3]

Holy crap the hand wringing in this thread. Palms with 50 points was our top scorer FFS lol, if Goose hits that we're in pretty f***ing good shape.

 

[devilsblood]

And to get casual fans bums in seats.

Is that really a concern of the Rag's?

 

[devilsblood]

If we are trying to assess Gusev's production (especially long term) through 35 y.o. Kovalchuk's one season on a struggling team, then I think Kovalchuk's past success is relevant, as even his recent KHL production (where he outproduced Gusev) was very smilar to the one when he was still in his NHL prime (lockout season and right after). Without Kovalchuk on the team Gusev's production didn't drop a bit and even rose, what also rose is the gap between second best producer on the team. I mean this type of [consistent] production is usually an indicator of translating well to the NHL as Ovechkin, Malkin, Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Panarin, Radulov and even Dadonov showed.

I think if Gusev has the same role as he did in Russia i.e. top minutes and 1st PP unit then he should do well, but many Russians were not having that right away (Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Kucherov) but then again they were quite younger than current Gusev. Not sure how much of a factor his size might be as he will be the smallest Russian in the league.

1)I for one am not trying to figure out how good Gusev will be at 35. I need to see him play for at least a couple games before I start predicting 8 years out.

2)Gusev's rise in production without Kovy is interesting, as is the gap between him and the #2 on the team, but his goals did fall, while his assists took off. What does that mean? I really don't know.

3)Completely agree on the importance of the role he is given. I figure top 6 is a lock. But #1 pp is not. Subban Hall are locks if healthy. Palms is a strong candidate. If the past couple seasons are an indicator, Simmonds makes sense, as well as a center who can win that opening draw, so maybe Zajac, maybe Zacha, maybe Hughes? Not sure I pencil him onto that top unit.