Nick Ritchie vs. Dustin Penner
- Thread starter Ducks in a row
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The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
It's all just odds at this point. How likely is he to make the team full time, how likely is he to get solid ice time, how likely is he to figure out the pro game so as to produce in that ice time?
To me the answers are not at all, somewhat, and not very.
To me the answers are not at all, somewhat, and not very.
Ducks in a row
Go Ducks Quack Quack
So not at all likely he will ever make the team as a full time player with somewhat of a chance to get solid ice time when he does get a chance to play and not very likely to figure out the pro game to be much of a producer.
So it seems you don't think much of him and he will be a career AHL player with some NHL games in his hockey career or am I reading this wrong?
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The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Reading your question again I see I misunderstood it. You asked about his first full season, whereas I was talking about next season specifically.
I'll change my answer to I have no idea.
bumperkisser
Registered User
- Mar 31, 2009
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Really depends lol. Do we let him play on the 4th line as his first full season or does he spend a full season in the A and try and come up as a top 6 player.
Ducks in a row
Go Ducks Quack Quack
Why not be like Penner? Penner started in the AHL and then was called up later in the season getting some games (Penner had 19 in 2005-06 regular season and then played in playoffs) and then the next year as a regular.
mightyquack
eggplant and jade or bust
- Apr 28, 2010
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He won't hit 30 goals in his first season.
16 assists? Should be able to out do that in a full season
45 points? Possible, but only if he plays the whole season on the top line and I'm not convinced he plays all season on the top line in his rookie season.
Scoring is too far down compared to Penner's rookie season for Ritchie to outproduce Penner IMO. So I'll say less goals, more assists, fewer points.
16 assists? Should be able to out do that in a full season
45 points? Possible, but only if he plays the whole season on the top line and I'm not convinced he plays all season on the top line in his rookie season.
Scoring is too far down compared to Penner's rookie season for Ritchie to outproduce Penner IMO. So I'll say less goals, more assists, fewer points.
Paul4587
Registered User
- Jan 26, 2006
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Penner scored 29 goals in his first full year. I doubt Ritchie hits that. But yeah it really depends. When does he play his first year? Does he play the whole year or does he spend time in the minors? And does he break in slowly being eased into the lineup or is he thrown into a top 6 role straight away.
Hockey Duckie
Registered User
It's been a long time, but didn't Penner spend time with the Twins at the AHL?
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
He spent the whole lockout year in Cincy and then most of 05-06 in Portland before playing 20-ish games at the end of that year.
So his "first full NHL season" was 06-07, which is what DIAR is apparently wanting to compare to. So I guess take into consideration however long you think it'll take Ritchie to make the club and discount any AHL/NHL shuttle years when you make your prediction.
AngelDuck
Rak 'em up
- Jun 16, 2012
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Some people forget that Penner was really really good for us. Even when we brought him back last year, he still had like 30 points in 48 games or something.
I think Ritchie needs a year in the minors, then he'll pot like 15 goals in his first year probably
I think Ritchie needs a year in the minors, then he'll pot like 15 goals in his first year probably
TheJoeMan
In Bob We Trust
The premise of this question is flawed. Dustin Penner was 24 years old when he played his first full season in 06-07. Chances are Ritchie will be 20 or 21 when he completes his first full season. I doubt he puts up the kind of numbers Penner put up in 06-07. By the time he's 24? I expect him to be capable of similar numbers that Penner put up in 06-07. We need to keep in mind Penner was an undrafted late-bloomer and you can't compare him apples-to-apples to a first round pick just because they are similarly built.
The kids got 1st line potential. I could see him being a 30 goal 50-60 point scorer one day with size and a meanness to him. But, at the same time, I could see him ending up like Zack Kassian.
In answer to the question above. Who knows? Nick was always going to be a high risk, high reward type player.
In answer to the question above. Who knows? Nick was always going to be a high risk, high reward type player.
Ducks in a row
Go Ducks Quack Quack
Yes Nick Ritchie should be younger in his 1st full season and if you think that will have a effect on his numbers like you already said you doubt he puts up the kind of numbers Penner put up in 06-07 so you have that with the options. Which option of him having fewer numbers do you see most likely then?
TheJoeMan
In Bob We Trust
They aren't comparable so it doesn't matter. I guess I would be really surprised to see Ritchie put up those kind of numbers but then again I was surprised when Penner did it in 07.
Ducks in a row
Go Ducks Quack Quack
They are comparable they both are hockey players. If you think age will be that big a deal vote for Ritchie having fewer goals and assists or whatever other combo that has him with fewer points.
The Midnight Burrito
True Fan
Sojourn
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2006
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That's a tough comparison. Penner was older, and broke into the NHL during a time scoring was up. Ritchie could actually come into the NHL playing better hockey, while being more effective offensively, and he could still fall short of Penner's point total. That's even if you overlook the obvious developmental advantage of a 24 year old over a 20-21 year old.
Then there's the linemate difference. Sure, it benefits Ritchie greatly if he starts on the top line with Getzlaf and Perry, but there is just as much chance(if not more) that he starts on the 4th line and is asked to work his way up the line-up. Even as players entering their first full season, Getzlaf and Perry are clearly superior linemates to anyone Ritchie is going to play with on the 4th line.
The only way I see this in favor of Ritchie is if he just enters the NHL and looks great, right from the start. That's the only way I'd see him getting enough of an opportunity to play with Getzlaf and Perry, where he'd have the opportunity to really put up the numbers to surpass Penner. Otherwise, goals are down in the NHL, Ritchie is very likely going to be younger, and he's almost certainly going to be playing with weaker linemates than Penner did. All signs point to Penner having a better full season. Ritchie would need to have a very good rookie season for this not to be the case.
Sojourn
Registered User
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Crap. Voted fewer assists and goals, but meant to vote fewer goals but more assists for less points. I think Ritchie can surpass the 15 assists.
Edit: They absolutely are comparable players. Both big bodied wingers, both expected to put up points, and many of us expect Ritchie to, at some point, see time with Getzlaf and Perry, while Penner spent most of his time in Anaheim doing exactly that. It's an easy comparison to make. But while they are comparable, it just isn't entirely fair to Ritchie to expect him to produce at that level. As I said previously, Penner had the advantage of playing on the 4th line with Getzlaf and Perry, and he did so at a time when scoring was up in the league. Ritchie is simply not going to have those advantages.
Edit: They absolutely are comparable players. Both big bodied wingers, both expected to put up points, and many of us expect Ritchie to, at some point, see time with Getzlaf and Perry, while Penner spent most of his time in Anaheim doing exactly that. It's an easy comparison to make. But while they are comparable, it just isn't entirely fair to Ritchie to expect him to produce at that level. As I said previously, Penner had the advantage of playing on the 4th line with Getzlaf and Perry, and he did so at a time when scoring was up in the league. Ritchie is simply not going to have those advantages.
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snarktacular
Registered User
- Aug 2, 2005
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Some people have made the observation that Rakell sometimes looks like Getzlaf. What if Ritchie play with neo-Getz in the 4th?
Sojourn
Registered User
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I think Rakell would need to enter the Matrix to earn even that label. Even in his first full season, Getzlaf was well ahead of Rakell as a player.
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