Player Discussion Nick Paul (LW)

[ottawah]

Paul looked like he had a lot of potential as a top six power forward playing either left wing or centre. He looked like he might turn into a Jamie Benn-Lite kind of player. But since then he has struggled to produce and has fallen down the depth chart.

I think that was only among Ottawa fans.

Fans consistently over value their own prospects well beyond what they have potential for. Pauls OHL production was always well behind what is generally needed to succeed in the NHL. Thus I felt his chances of making it always were suspect. People like to say points do not always matter, but the truth is offensive prowess at the CHL level is a very good indicator of other skills, skating, vision, work ethic etc and few forwards that are not putting up 1.25 PPG by draft + 1 have a much lower chance of making it regardless of where they are drafted. Grinders from the OHL do not go on to become grinders in the NHL by and large. Getting points at the CHL level does not mean you can make the NHL, but a lack of points compared to your peers is a sever warning sign. Paul was putting up Cody Ceci like points in the O, and people thought he would make a top 6 player? Thats just very highly unlikely. Yes it does happen at times, but those are extraordinarily rare.

It is why I am still not convinced on Formenton. His OHL production has definitely been quite sub standard for a "top" prospect so far.

 

[Peptic Balcers]

It is why I am still not convinced on Formenton. His OHL production has definitely been quite sub standard for a "top" prospect so far.

It's a warranted concern. If a skill set doesn't relate to production, is the player that useful? But with Formenton, his speed is really hard to ignore. And the other thing is that he's crazy young. At the end of his draft +1 he was still 18, and he doesn't turn 19 until September. That makes his production less concerning for now.

 

[Big Papi]

i saw Paul play in the OHL and he was awesome. Good presence. He's a guy I am rooting for to make it.

 

[Beville]

Can really tell Eugene is going for the cup this off-season...

 

[TheBradyBunch]

It is why I am still not convinced on Formenton. His OHL production has definitely been quite sub standard for a "top" prospect so far.

Point per game as a just-barely-18-year-old, top 20 in PPG as a U-19 player in the OHL, led his team in goals and points in the playoffs, led his team in goals in the regular season despite missing ~20 games, scored at a >40 goal pace...

I'm not seeing sub-standard, especially given the fact that most don't see him as a purely offensive player and given the fact that he's widely considered to be a raw prospect.

EDIT:

re: Paul, important to note that he started off last year with an ankle injury (day 1 of camp). Hard to rebound from that, especially mentally.

 

[OD99]

re: Paul, important to note that he started off last year with an ankle injury (day 1 of camp). Hard to rebound from that, especially mentally.

I was just going to write this...it was a high ankle sprain to boot which we know from all sorts of players, Turris being most recent example, is a very difficult injury to come back from.

He was great in the dev camp and Dono was raving about him...really was bad luck and for bubble guys sometimes that is all it takes.

 

[topshelf15]

I was just going to write this...it was a high ankle sprain to boot which we know from all sorts of players, Turris being most recent example, is a very difficult injury to come back from.

He was great in the dev camp and Dono was raving about him...really was bad luck and for bubble guys sometimes that is all it takes.

Yep White breaking his arm early kinda snuffed out what looked to be a strong showing as well

 

[Tundraman]

So....

- Paul is no longer waiver exempted
- Sens sign him to a cheap 2 way deal
- The contract is only for 1 year

Seems to me if he doesn't stick here out of camp he's a likely pickup by someone looking for a big bodied 4th liner who still has some potential. They can always dump him right back in the pool if they don't like what they see. With a cheap AHL deal, it's extremely low risk even if the Sens who would have 1st dibs don't take him back in the recycle.

When a team is confident about the progress of a developing non-exempted player he gets a 2 year deal with a bigger AHL payday and a guaranteed NHL second year deal. That helps to keep teams away from poaching their prospects. Not that I think they had to but that's what they did it with McCormick. They obviously aren't too worried about losing Paul.

 

[Cosmix]

Can really tell Eugene is going for the cup this off-season...

Which cup? Does it have something to do with horses or boats?

 

[DylanSensFan]

Point per game as a just-barely-18-year-old, top 20 in PPG as a U-19 player in the OHL, led his team in goals and points in the playoffs, led his team in goals in the regular season despite missing ~20 games, scored at a >40 goal pace...

I'm not seeing sub-standard, especially given the fact that most don't see him as a purely offensive player and given the fact that he's widely considered to be a raw prospect.

EDIT:

re: Paul, important to note that he started off last year with an ankle injury (day 1 of camp). Hard to rebound from that, especially mentally.

You see, I wasn't paying close enough attention.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

You see, I wasn't paying close enough attention.

Lots of stuff has happened since then... not too hard to forget something like that. I didn't remember, either, 'til I read about it online.

 

[FolignoQuantumLeap]

Lots of stuff has happened since then... not too hard to forget something like that. I didn't remember, either, 'til I read about it online.

It was a big reason we had such awful depth at forward to start the year. White, Paul and MacArthur all down. That got Formenton and Brown their looks. I think there might have been another forward who was injured at that point as well. Brassard was coming off shoulder surgery, it wasn't clear whether he'd be ready to start the year.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

It was a big reason we had such awful depth at forward to start the year. White, Paul and MacArthur all down. That got Formenton and Brown their looks. I think there might have been another forward who was injured at that point as well. Brassard was coming off shoulder surgery, it wasn't clear whether he'd be ready to start the year.

Very few things went right for us last year, that's for sure.

 

[Dionysus]

I could definitely see Paul sticking with the big club out of camp and playing the majority of the season.

 

[slamigo]

I could definitely see Paul sticking with the big club out of camp and playing the majority of the season.

If this player could pan out that would be huge for the club.

 

[Xspyrit]

I really hope Paul is given the opportunity to stick. IMO he could be perfect for the 4th center line role. Big, fast enough, responsible defensively, good on face-offs. He's also very versatile and can chip in with a bit of offense. Every time he played for the Sens, he was perfectly fine to me. Never going to be an offensive player but loved his energy and focus on getting the play forward.

Paajarvi-Paul-Pyatt would be my 4th line this year, cheap fast line that can even score a bit. Their role is to keep the puck away from the defensive zone as much as possible and I think they could do a relatively good job at it.

The team is missing a top line forward and a top pairing D-man right now so they need solid depth lines (forward and defense)

Ideally

Boedker-Pageau-White
Paajarvi-Paul-Pyatt
McCormick

Chabot-Ceci
Borowiecki-Wideman
Harpur

Now what's the top-6 and top pair?

???-Duchene-Dzingel
Ryan-???-Stone

???-EK???

 

[Sensinitis]

Now what's the top-6 and top pair?

???-Duchene-Dzingel
Ryan-???-Stone

???-EK???

Paul will be battling Pyatt/McCormick/Chlapik for a spot. Pyatt is Boucher’s pet, McCormick is on a one-way, and Chlapik is just better. We’ll see what happens, he’d have to really excel to win a spot.

As for the top 6, I’d like to see this if nothing else changes this summer (unlikely imo):

Dzingel-Duchene-White
Ryan/Smith (trade one of them)-Brown-Stone

Smith in the top six can hopefully rack up some points playing with two great playmakers. Increase his value a bit and trade him with just 2 years left on his contract. That’s how I would proceed.

Ryan-Brown-Stone can be a big talented 2nd line if Bobby manages to stay healthy.

 

[Cosmix]

I was just going to write this...it was a high ankle sprain to boot which we know from all sorts of players, Turris being most recent example, is a very difficult injury to come back from.

He was great in the dev camp and Dono was raving about him...really was bad luck and for bubble guys sometimes that is all it takes.

Your “bubble guy” comment is accurate. Paul so far has proven to be an AHL level player and nothing more. I suspect he has hit his ceiling. If he would change his game to being an energy physical forward he might become an NHL 4th liner; however, I think he has not made that change and probably never will. Will he change when his contract expires and he becomes a free agent, possibly signing with another NHL or AHL team? Maybe.

 

[Icelevel]

Paul will be battling Pyatt/McCormick/Chlapik for a spot. Pyatt is Boucher’s pet, McCormick is on a one-way, and Chlapik is just better. We’ll see what happens, he’d have to really excel to win a spot.

As for the top 6, I’d like to see this if nothing else changes this summer (unlikely imo):

Dzingel-Duchene-White
Ryan/Smith (trade one of them)-Brown-Stone

Smith in the top six can hopefully rack up some points playing with two great playmakers. Increase his value a bit and trade him with just 2 years left on his contract. That’s how I would proceed.

Ryan-Brown-Stone can be a big talented 2nd line if Bobby manages to stay healthy.

Dzingel-duchene-white I would hope is unlikely. Who knows could surprise. But that should not be the line going in to the season.

 

[Sensinitis]

Dzingel-duchene-white I would hope is unlikely. Who knows could surprise. But that should not be the line going in to the season.

Why?

 

[Tuna99]

I really hope Paul is given the opportunity to stick. IMO he could be perfect for the 4th center line role. Big, fast enough, responsible defensively, good on face-offs. He's also very versatile and can chip in with a bit of offense. Every time he played for the Sens, he was perfectly fine to me. Never going to be an offensive player but loved his energy and focus on getting the play forward.

Paajarvi-Paul-Pyatt would be my 4th line this year, cheap fast line that can even score a bit. Their role is to keep the puck away from the defensive zone as much as possible and I think they could do a relatively good job at it.

The team is missing a top line forward and a top pairing D-man right now so they need solid depth lines (forward and defense)

Ideally

Boedker-Pageau-White
Paajarvi-Paul-Pyatt
McCormick

Chabot-Ceci
Borowiecki-Wideman
Harpur

Now what's the top-6 and top pair?

???-Duchene-Dzingel
Ryan-???-Stone

???-EK???

I found Paul didn't have a good defensive game and lacked energy. He had shifts were he did nothing and would rather stick battle for a contested puck then assert himself physically and claim space for himself.

To me he lacks focus on the ice, he'll have a good shift and follow it up by being invisible for the rest of the game. Typical big man who plays without intensity or focus. Plays a light game, gets yelled at by the coach, runs around for a shift or two hitting people and then reverts back to soft Nick Paul.

Lots of tools, but the drive and focus isn't there IMO

 

[Icelevel]

Why?

Because
Boedker-Duchene-Ryan
Dzingel-Pageau-Stone

 

[Peptic Balcers]

Because
Boedker-Duchene-Ryan
Dzingel-Pageau-Stone

I was trying to figure out what this was for until I realized it was our projected top six and then I projectile vomited

 

[Sensinitis]

Because
Boedker-Duchene-Ryan
Dzingel-Pageau-Stone

Because hypothetical lineup?

Not really a reason, haha. Boedker and Pageau should be on the 3rd line imo.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Nick Paul probably could have played on the Sens all season last year. He had an ankle injury in training camp which hurt his chances of making the team. Dorion had given an extension to Burrows and a contract to Nate Thompson, and Paul arguably could have brought more than both. After that Boucher didn't give Paul much of a shot. He brought up Jack Rodewald early and then a bunch of other AHL players like Ben Sexton, Mike Blunden and Jim O'Brien all got opportunities. Boucher even pushed to claim Dumont off of waivers and played him over Paul. Didomencio and McCormick also got opportunities and both are less meaningful prospects than Paul. Didn't Paul only get a chance to play with AHL players when he got called up? I thought he played with Dumont and either McCormick or Burrows when he got called up.

He still needs to improve aspects of his game but there is still some good upside there. He could still be a solid middle six guy if he puts it all together.