Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by Le Golie, Oct 5, 2005.
Fine analysis.... FOR ME TO POOP ON!
Winnipeg is an area with limited economic potential. It's perfect for AHL hockey, but any owner looking around for an area to move to has much more lucrative options. It ain't happening. Wake up, folks.
Well I suppose with the cap and strong dollar its atleast feasible.
I can't see or even want to think about expansion, so the only way this happens in through relocation, and who wants to relocate to a 15,000 seat arena?
I'd love to see carolina move up there... but something tells me it isn't happening.
I'd love to see that happen, and it's more likely now than it was a year ago, but...... it's still pretty far away i would guess.
Especially if the salary cap moves up in the next few years, it mgiht not be as low as 39mill again for all we know.
Money, Money, Money...tsk, tsk...
Winnipeg has economic potential, but its true, other potential markets may have more. However, what they don't have is the hockey market. Winnipeg now also appears to have significant corporate backing, and a willing and able potential owner. With the new economic structure of the league, Winnipeg is likely a viable option. Are other markets also viable, and potentially moreso based on economic demographics? Sure! However, is there a chance the NHL could return to Winnipeg? Definitely.
I don't want to see any of the teams in the league move. Relocation isn't healthy for the league, isn't good press, and hockey succeeding in all the markets its in would be fantastic for the sport. However, IF it happened, you're kidding yourself if you think Winnipeg won't be a player among the potential relocation candidates.
If it never happens, nobody will ever call him out on it because it was "just a projection". If it does happen, he points back to it and says "Look at me!!!!1!".
It's a lot easier for him to say it than for it to ever actually happen. He's just looking for easy press, and it doesn't get easier in Canada than predicting a return of NHL hockey to departed markets.
I guess the question is where would you move an NHL franchise too.....its fine if you want to crap all over Winnipeg, but if not Winnipeg where else. Consider the other cities, where you might want to move an NHL team and compare that to Winnipeg.
Kansas City: already has a MLB and NFL team. Yes they're building an arena there, hockey failed once and if you could choose between K.C. and Winnipeg.
Portland: Enough already, the market isn't big enough and if Paul Allen who has more money then sense when it comes to sports isn't interested, again you make the choice between Winnipeg and Portland
Houston: Big city, fourth largest in the U.S. Good potential rival for Dallas but who's kiddinng who here. Again decide between the two, and you still choose Winnipeg
Seattle: Too many teams in that market already, basketball team always complains about their arena
Las Vegas: Stupid choice, their Mayor Oscar Goldman put hockey at the bottom of his list.
So if a team is going to move, where would you move a team too if not Winnipeg? Maybe Winnipeg does make sense when you think about it
15,000 seats isn't gonna cut it at all, period, plain and simple
i'd welcome the jets returning.
15,000 fans in a 15,000 seat arena would be better than 13,000 in an 18,000 seat arena, which is where carolina, for example, was a few years ago.
I imagine they could renovate and add seats to the building.
though it makes you wonder why they didn't just put in 18-20,000 seats in the new arena when they said while building it, that is was in the hopes that one day they'd get an NHL team to play there.
15,000 seats is by far too small, but the MTS center boasts a good number of Luxury boxes, and Winnipeg has alot of potential for TV revenew. The possibility to add seats to the arena is there, but costly.
I'm pretty they cleared it with the league that 15000 would be enough, just in case.
also 15,000 is the number of seats they could always sell standing room only tickets like they do in Minnesota, so long as it doesn't exceed the capacity set by the fire marshall.
I won't count out Winnipeg as a possible relocation option - it's much more viable now in a post-cap world - but I would not consider it the top choice market.
My handicapping of the relocation market race:
1. Portland. Paul Allen no longer controls the Rose Garden. This was the biggest block before. A long history with the Winter Hawks.
2. Houston. Largest city in US/Canada without a team - 4th largest US city (over 2M), 10th largest metro area (almost 5M), #10 US media market. Hockey history in the WHA and minor leagues. Natural rival with Dallas.
After this it becomes less clear:
3a. KC. New arena ready and looking for a tenant and will give very favorable terms. And if you wan't to use hockey failing once as a no-go criteria, you can also cross off Winnipeg, and make Colorado and San Jose and Atlanta give back their teams.
3b. Vegas. The right ownership group could make this wildly successful or an abject failure. Fastest growing city in the US and it knows how to market.
3c. Winnipeg. I'd rank the 'Peg even odds with KC and Vegas, but a notch or two below Portland or Houston.
4. Seattle - least likely.
You won't see a single NHL team move. All 30 teams will stay right where they are for a long long time.
The Winnipeg talk is just a dream (a rather ridiculous one).
I don't think any more expansion is needed or required, sorry Winnipeg and Quebec fans ...
However, there is one franchise I would love to relocate.
Relocate the Carolina Hurricanes to the Omaha Frontier.
They have the cool climate, and knowledge of the sport. There's no sports competition and their jr. teams get great attendance.
Nebraska also has the largest Czech population in america, so that's a big plus too
I think if the canes are relocated their, it'll be a success story like Cbus is. Plus, the conferences will be a bit more sane as:
Columbus moves into the Eastern conference vacancy.
Omaha will be put in the Western conference central div.
Hockey will not work in Raleigh. It's a black eye on the league.
No. Even under the new CBA, there are several teams in severe financial straits - Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the Islanders. Pittsburgh and the Isles are really just arena issues. If the slots license funded arena doesn't pan out in Pittsburgh or if Wang doesn't get his major Lighthouse development and new or drastically renovated Colliseum, both teams are gone within 2 to 5 years.
No team that has won the SC since the O6 has ever moved.
The Isles with their dynasty history will not be moving, there's a lot of money in NY and somebody will buy the franchise.
Pittsburgh looks like they'll get the slots license and they'll stay.
Carolina is just an ugly franchise any way you look at it.
Unfortunately for the Isles, the Nassau County gov't is both corrupt and just about bankrupt. The only real chance for a new Colliseum is as part of a real estate development deal.
If that falls through, though, I see the Isles moving (but not necessarily very far). There is another relocation city option that would work for the Isles, but no other team - Brooklyn.
There is a new arena being built there for the Nets that could host an NHL team, and it's location (right on top of the LIRR) is actually easier to get to for much of the Isles fan base than Uniondale, and the Brooklyn Islanders sure beats the hell out of the Portland Islanders or Houston Islanders asfar as the league is concerned, should things come to that.
If Carolina goes anywhere...it should be to Charlotte.
Raleigh 276,093 city, Raleigh/Dunham/Cary Metro: 1.3million
Charlotte: 540828 city, Metro: 1.9million.
With all the banking HQ in Charlotte (Bank of America, Wachovia...you'd think they could sell some luxury suites too...) Also, the Charlotte-Atlanta rivalry would be much, much better than ATL-Charlotte.
We need more northern teams where the population already knows hockey.
Population shouldn't be what should be looked at primarily.
Plus Charlotte couldn't even keep its NBA team so ...
If Portland isnt big enough, why on earth would you move to a market that has a metro area that is barely 40% as large as Portland, has the Canadian currency problem and has an arena that can only fit 4000 fewer people?
You have not offered a single reason why Kansas City and Houston are poor choices. "They have too many teams" means nothing given a majority of the NHL's existing teams have at least as many franhises as these two markets.
Las Vegas: Also, no valid reason offered. "Stupid choice" is a meaningless statement. What the mayor thinks is irrelevent. If they have or will build an arena, and someone wants a team there, the mayor will welcome it with open arms.
The only one you have a concrete reason against is Seattle, because of arena problems. Seattle builds a new arena and that problem is resolved.
Emotionally, Winnipeg is the best choice. Buisness is not run on emotion though. It all comes down to dollars and cents, and from that perspective, Winnipeg is well down the list.
it's gonna happen - lotsa suites -
50 suites is not a lot.
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