League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - 2020 Bubble Hockey Edition - Vol. 9

[895]

Mike Knuble aged terribly. Same with Tomas Holmstrom, Brendan Shanahan, etc.

I don't know why you think listing some exceptions disproves the overall rule.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

I don't know why you think listing some exceptions disproves the overall rule.

I suspect you've got exactly 0 evidence that it's an actual rule.

 

[895]

I suspect you've got exactly 0 evidence that it's an actual rule.

Sure but only because there's no hard definitions on what a power forward is.

Are you fact checking every statement made on these boards? If you can't accept something as simple as players who are more physical get injured more often and have shorter careers as true, then I don't know what to tell you. Its not a particularly spicy take.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

Sure but only because there's no hard definitions on what a power forward is.

Are you fact checking every statement made on these boards? If you can't accept something as simple as players who are more physical get injured more often and have shorter careers as true, then I don't know what to tell you. Its not a particularly spicy take.

It's established conventional wisdom, but I wonder if anyone has really looked at the numbers.

Either way, shorter careers due to injury is one thing, and having worse aging curves in terms of ability is another. The latter is what I thought you were getting at in regard to Wilson (who's rarely, and I don't think ever seriously, been injured on the ice).

 

[895]

It's established conventional wisdom, but I wonder if anyone has really looked at the numbers.

Either way, shorter careers due to injury is one thing, and having worse aging curves in terms of ability is another. The latter is what I thought you were getting at in regard to Wilson (who's rarely, and I don't think ever seriously, been injured on the ice).

Depends on how seriously you think those concussions were I guess. Hard to tell with those.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Chandler getting paid.

haaaaaaard pass on that deal.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

How often has conventional wisdom WRT sports actually held up to scrutiny over any extended length of time and study?

I didn't even mention some of the more notable outliers, like our own Captain. Give me an example of a physical player with a shortened career, and I'll give you an example of a finesse player with a shortened career.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's established conventional wisdom, but I wonder if anyone has really looked at the numbers.

Either way, shorter careers due to injury is one thing, and having worse aging curves in terms of ability is another. The latter is what I thought you were getting at in regard to Wilson (who's rarely, and I don't think ever seriously, been injured on the ice).

I actually thought the same thing myself, (makes sense, but do the number really show that). I look at the top 100 NHL forwards in games played all time and I see a lot of power forwards by my definition. That’s where it gets fuzzy as D&N said....

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

How often has conventional wisdom WRT sports actually held up to scrutiny over any extended length of time and study?

I didn't even mention some of the more notable outliers, like our own Captain. Give me an example of a physical player with a shortened career, and I'll give you an example of a finesse player with a shortened career.

running backs don’t have long careers....conventional wisdom.


Plenty of conventional wisdom holds up....doesn’t have to be super complex

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

running backs don’t have long careers....conventional wisdom.


Plenty of conventional wisdom holds up....

That's not even remotely close to longstanding conventional wisdom. Decline in RB usage is a very recent development, and it came to replace the former conventional wisdom--that teams needed a workhorse back.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

That's not even remotely close to longstanding conventional wisdom. Decline in RB usage is a very recent development, and it came to replace the former conventional wisdom--that teams needed a workhorse back.

Is that conventional wisdom or you have supporting numbers?

I’d wager injuries have gone up which drives the need for at least 2 co-starter type RB’s on most teams. Modern day NFL RB’s average years played have always been short I believe (if not the shortest)....maybe someone has stats or an article I couldn’t find that says otherwise.

so yeah....conventional wisdom stands.

 

[Bieronymus Trotz]

I didn't even mention some of the more notable outliers, like our own Captain. Give me an example of a physical player with a shortened career, and I'll give you an example of a finesse player with a shortened career.

Sure. I don't think you or any of us talking about this knows the overall answer, so your confidence here is a little strange to me. I'm sure if someone really did break it down and identify the most predictive factors, "power forward" wouldn't be a relevant way of sorting players anyway so much as more specific things like how and how often they tend to take hits, etc. would be.

 

[Hivemind]

There are plenty of power forwards/gritty 2nd liners who fell of a cliff as they aged or became injured. Ryan Clowe, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, etc. And those are just guys who spent time in the Metro Division...

 

[bur and 666 others]

btw, one good thing about pandemic is that they started doing zoom call with all drafted players. So now on the caps site there are interviews with them through zoom.

 

[Ridley Simon]

There are plenty of power forwards/gritty 2nd liners who fell of a cliff as they aged or became injured. Ryan Clowe, Ryan Callahan, Brandon Dubinsky, Scott Hartnell, Wayne Simmonds, Andrew Ladd, Kyle Okposo, etc. And those are just guys who spent time in the Metro Division...

Most of those guys were also pretty slow, even in their heyday.

Not all. But most.

I don’t think that was necessarily the power forward aspect alone. The new “modern”
NHL has moved away from those players. It’s obv happened w D-men, but we can’t ignore its impact on similar type players at forward.

Speed is the key, IMO (and what Wilson has...until he doesn’t).

 

[HTFN]

Most of those guys were also pretty slow, even in their heyday.

Not all. But most.

I don’t think that was necessarily the power forward aspect alone. The new “modern”
NHL has moved away from those players. It’s obv happened w D-men, but we can’t ignore its impact on similar type players at forward.

Speed is the key, IMO (and what Wilson has...until he doesn’t).

I was going to say the same thing. Whether that quality of skating is the hallmark of a power forward is sort of up for debate I guess, but some of those guys weren't especially good skaters.

The guy who sticks out to me as probably the best skater among them, Hartnell, played over 1200 games through 17 seasons and was about as consistent as you could ask a guy to be over his career. His 2015 season is about as good as his 2005 season, he didn't set a career high until around 30, and dropped off about when you expect some people to drop off.

 

[trick9]

Weird that Tampa didn't move any of their guys in the draft or before that. I would have thought they would have preferred 2020 draft picks in return as they need to clear some salary.

Interesting to see what they do. Sharks are swimming all around them looking for who is the odd man out.

 

[Hivemind]

The guy who sticks out to me as probably the best skater among them, Hartnell,

Ahh, I see you aren't familiar with the legend of Hartnell Down

 

[BiPolar Caps]

NHL Morning Skate on Sirius XM with Gord Stellick and Scott Laughlin just interviewing Elliotte Friedman and asked him to predict where OEL, Pietrangelo, Markstrom and Taylor Hall would end up.

OEL to Vancouver, but Arizona wanted Demko in return and Vancouver will not do that. He indicated that Arizona does like Boston's prospects better than Vancouvers though.

Pietrangelo returns to St. Louis, however #2 would be Florida and #3 would be Las Vegas. That Vegas is now willing to eat some of Fleury's contract Friedman believes that Vegas may be able to deal him to Minnesota and used yesterday's Bonino trade as an example of Guerin getting some former Penguins that he's familiar with. Makes some sense after they traded Dubnyk, but he also would not rule out the possibility of a Fleury return to Pittsburgh.

Taylor Hall, he was not sure but his SWAG was Montreal.

Markstrom back to Vancouver but he's not all that confident with that.

Mentioned Holtby's landing as one of the three Canadian western teams (Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton)

 

[Langway]

Hall to NSH has been mentioned lately and it makes sense. Re-unites with Hynes, who he had a Hart season with.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Hall to NSH has been mentioned lately and it makes sense. Re-unites with Hynes, who he had a Hart season with.

If I'm Hall I'm looking at teams that are going to let me ride shotgun with a top line pivot, or a very high end second line center, especially if I'm taking a short term deal. Would have little interest in playing in Nashville with either Johansen or Duchene, both of whom are pretty underwhelming to me.

Colorado, Montreal, New York Islanders, even Edmonton makes sense.

 

[Corby78]

One of the cool stories coming out of the draft. Another kid in Finland wa apparently playing a game when he found out.

Lincoln Stars (@lincolnstars) Tweeted:
The moment @Boltmann10 found out he was the newest member of the @NHLFlames ... #AllAboard https://t.co/UUYn2Iu0Kq

 

[BiPolar Caps]

One of the cool stories coming out of the draft. Another kid in Finland wa apparently playing a game when he found out.

Lincoln Stars (@lincolnstars) Tweeted:
The moment @Boltmann10 found out he was the newest member of the @NHLFlames ... #AllAboard https://t.co/UUYn2Iu0Kq

Lincoln Stars? Didn't even know that Lincoln had a team in the USHL. Lived in Omaha, Ne. in the early 90s and the USHL team was the Lancers playing out of Aksarben (yep, Nebraska spelled backwards) arena which was next to the Aksarben horse race track. The arena was an all purpose facility but once you stepped inside it you knew that rodeos and other livestock events was its forte. At the time Lancers games were a tough ticket to be had and the stands/spectators looked like they were extras from the Slap Shot movie and there was sometimes more activity in the stands then on ice, mostly alcohol fueled.

Also UNO Mavericks did not have a college hockey team at the time I believe.

 

[Hivemind]

If I'm Hall I'm looking at teams that are going to let me ride shotgun with a top line pivot, or a very high end second line center, especially if I'm taking a short term deal. Would have little interest in playing in Nashville with either Johansen or Duchene, both of whom are pretty underwhelming to me.

Colorado, Montreal, New York Islanders, even Edmonton makes sense.

Doubt Hall goes back to Edmonton, for a variety of reasons on both sides.

While Ryan Johansen isn't elite, I do think you're underrating him. He's tied for 14th among all centers in assists over the past 5 years, ahead of Tavares, Thornton, and Eichel. He's a consistent playmaker, and would be the best center Hall has played with outside of the one season with McDavid. He's also better than anyone Montreal has and pretty similar to Barzal.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Doubt Hall goes back to Edmonton, for a variety of reasons on both sides.

While Ryan Johansen isn't elite, I do think you're underrating him. He's tied for 14th among all centers in assists over the past 5 years, ahead of Tavares, Thornton, and Eichel. He's a consistent playmaker, and would be the best center Hall has played with outside of the one season with McDavid. He's also better than anyone Montreal has and pretty similar to Barzal.

Fair points, I just don't like Johansen as a top line center.