NHL Simple Rating System (SRS) Rankings (added: 2018-19)

[Doctor No]

The thing I found most interesting is that, for all of the talk about strong conferences and weak conferences, 15 of the top 16 SRS teams are in the playoffs (and #17 is Dallas, a smidge below #16 Montreal).

 

[Doctor No]

First-round series outcome probabilities. Western Conference:

Winner	Games	Percent
CGY	4	12%
CGY	5	22%
CGY	6	19%
CGY	7	18%
COL	7	10%
COL	6	11%
COL	5	6%
COL	4	3%
CGY		71%
COL		29%

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[/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
SJS	4	7%
SJS	5	15%
SJS	6	15%
SJS	7	18%
VGK	7	13%
VGK	6	16%
VGK	5	10%
VGK	4	5%
SJS		56%
VGK		44%

[TBODY]
[/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
NSH	4	8%
NSH	5	17%
NSH	6	16%
NSH	7	18%
DAL	7	12%
DAL	6	14%
DAL	5	9%
DAL	4	4%
NSH		60%
DAL		40%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
WPG	4	7%
WPG	5	15%
WPG	6	15%
WPG	7	17%
STL	7	14%
STL	6	16%
STL	5	11%
STL	4	6%
WPG		54%
STL		46%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

First-round series outcome probabilities. Eastern Conference:

Winner	Games	Percent
TBL	4	19%
TBL	5	28%
TBL	6	20%
TBL	7	16%
CBJ	7	6%
CBJ	6	6%
CBJ	5	3%
CBJ	4	1%
TBL		83%
CBJ		17%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
BOS	4	7%
BOS	5	15%
BOS	6	15%
BOS	7	18%
TOR	7	13%
TOR	6	16%
TOR	5	10%
TOR	4	5%
BOS		56%
TOR		44%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
WSH	4	7%
WSH	5	15%
WSH	6	15%
WSH	7	18%
CAR	7	14%
CAR	6	16%
CAR	5	10%
CAR	4	5%
WSH		55%
CAR		45%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
NYI	4	6%
NYI	5	14%
NYI	6	14%
NYI	7	18%
PIT	7	14%
PIT	6	17%
PIT	5	11%
PIT	4	6%
NYI		52%
PIT		48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Midnight Judges]

It's an interesting approach. I think your model does way better than my random picks lol

 

[Doctor No]

Wow Columbus!

First of all, the table above is sorted weird - should have been sorted by the last column (SRS Strength), but yeah, it's not. Anyhow, Columbus was the #9 ranked team there, and they're up to #6.

Team	Goal Diff	Schedule	SRS Strength
Tampa Bay	1.129	(0.033)	1.096
Calgary	0.774	(0.063)	0.711
Boston	0.524	(0.013)	0.511
NY Islanders	0.447	(0.007)	0.440
Toronto	0.417	0.001	0.418
Columbus	0.388	0.026	0.414
Washington	0.381	(0.011)	0.370
Winnipeg	0.341	(0.013)	0.328
Pittsburgh	0.306	0.007	0.313
Nashville	0.310	(0.014)	0.295
San Jose	0.306	(0.037)	0.269
St. Louis	0.259	(0.001)	0.257
Carolina	0.226	0.006	0.232
Vegas	0.247	(0.031)	0.216
Colorado	0.131	0.011	0.142
Montreal	0.134	(0.001)	0.133
Dallas	0.095	0.003	0.098
Florida	(0.159)	0.013	(0.146)
Arizona	(0.122)	(0.025)	(0.147)
Chicago	(0.256)	0.013	(0.243)
Minnesota	(0.317)	0.016	(0.301)
Vancouver	(0.354)	0.001	(0.353)
Philadelphia	(0.451)	0.026	(0.425)
Edmonton	(0.512)	0.003	(0.509)
Buffalo	(0.549)	0.031	(0.518)
NY Rangers	(0.549)	0.030	(0.518)
Detroit	(0.585)	0.032	(0.553)
New Jersey	(0.646)	0.035	(0.611)
Anaheim	(0.634)	0.004	(0.630)
Ottawa	(0.732)	0.039	(0.692)
Los Angeles	(0.744)	0.013	(0.730)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

Western Conference update:

Winner	Games	Percent
CGY	4	0%
CGY	5	20%
CGY	6	23%
CGY	7	24%
COL	7	13%
COL	6	14%
COL	5	7%
COL	4	0%
CGY		66%
COL		34%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
SJS	4	0%
SJS	5	0%
SJS	6	12%
SJS	7	21%
VGK	7	16%
VGK	6	28%
VGK	5	24%
VGK	4	0%
SJS		33%
VGK		67%

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Winner	Games	Percent
NSH	4	0%
NSH	5	14%
NSH	6	19%
NSH	7	22%
DAL	7	15%
DAL	6	19%
DAL	5	11%
DAL	4	0%
NSH		55%
DAL		45%

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Winner	Games	Percent
WPG	4	0%
WPG	5	0%
WPG	6	12%
WPG	7	21%
STL	7	16%
STL	6	27%
STL	5	23%
STL	4	0%
WPG		33%
STL		67%

[TBODY]
[/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

Eastern Conference update:

Winner	Games	Percent
TBL	4	0%
TBL	5	0%
TBL	6	0%
TBL	7	15%
CBJ	7	7%
CBJ	6	16%
CBJ	5	18%
CBJ	4	43%
TBL		15%
CBJ		85%

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Winner	Games	Percent
BOS	4	0%
BOS	5	12%
BOS	6	17%
BOS	7	22%
TOR	7	16%
TOR	6	20%
TOR	5	12%
TOR	4	0%
BOS		51%
TOR		49%

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Winner	Games	Percent
WSH	4	22%
WSH	5	29%
WSH	6	18%
WSH	7	15%
CAR	7	11%
CAR	6	6%
CAR	5	0%
CAR	4	0%
WSH		83%
CAR		17%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
NYI	4	47%
NYI	5	30%
NYI	6	11%
NYI	7	7%
PIT	7	5%
PIT	6	0%
PIT	5	0%
PIT	4	0%
NYI		95%
PIT		5%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

So how about that first round, eh? Some strong underdogs (SRS had Columbus #9 before the start of the playoffs, #4 now, for instance). Three favorites (based on SRS) won their series - the Islanders, the Sharks, and the Bruins, which isn't really something to toot the horn of SRS about.

Updated SRS rankings (home ice is currently estimated at +0.317 goals/game).

Team	Goal Diff	Schedule	SRS Strength
Tampa Bay	1.070	(0.023)	1.047
Calgary	0.644	(0.044)	0.600
Boston	0.562	0.006	0.567
Columbus	0.430	0.033	0.463
NY Islanders	0.465	(0.002)	0.463
Toronto	0.326	0.035	0.360
Washington	0.315	0.011	0.325
Winnipeg	0.318	0.001	0.320
Pittsburgh	0.279	0.013	0.292
Carolina	0.258	0.020	0.279
St. Louis	0.261	0.008	0.269
San Jose	0.292	(0.027)	0.265
Colorado	0.230	0.024	0.254
Nashville	0.227	0.004	0.231
Vegas	0.236	(0.020)	0.216
Dallas	0.159	0.006	0.165
Montreal	0.134	(0.002)	0.132
Florida	(0.159)	0.012	(0.147)
Arizona	(0.122)	(0.027)	(0.149)
Chicago	(0.256)	0.016	(0.240)
Minnesota	(0.317)	0.018	(0.299)
Vancouver	(0.354)	(0.002)	(0.355)
Philadelphia	(0.451)	0.026	(0.425)
Edmonton	(0.512)	0.002	(0.510)
NY Rangers	(0.549)	0.031	(0.518)
Buffalo	(0.549)	0.030	(0.519)
Detroit	(0.585)	0.032	(0.554)
New Jersey	(0.646)	0.035	(0.611)
Anaheim	(0.634)	0.003	(0.631)
Ottawa	(0.732)	0.039	(0.693)
Los Angeles	(0.744)	0.012	(0.732)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

And second-round series probabilities:

Winner	Games	Percent
BOS	4	7%
BOS	5	15%
BOS	6	15%
BOS	7	18%
CBJ	7	13%
CBJ	6	16%
CBJ	5	10%
CBJ	4	5%
BOS		56%
CBJ		44%

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Winner	Games	Percent
NYI	4	8%
NYI	5	17%
NYI	6	16%
NYI	7	18%
CAR	7	13%
CAR	6	15%
CAR	5	9%
CAR	4	5%
NYI		59%
CAR		41%

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Winner	Games	Percent
STL	4	7%
STL	5	15%
STL	6	15%
STL	7	18%
DAL	7	13%
DAL	6	16%
DAL	5	10%
DAL	4	5%
STL		56%
DAL		44%

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Winner	Games	Percent
SJS	4	6%
SJS	5	14%
SJS	6	14%
SJS	7	18%
COL	7	14%
COL	6	17%
COL	5	11%
COL	4	6%
SJS		52%
COL		48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There we have it - should be four pretty even series. Go Avs!

 

[Doctor No]

Through games of May 8, 2019:

Team	Goal Diff	Schedule	SRS Strength
Tampa Bay	1.070	(0.024)	1.045
Boston	0.589	0.030	0.619
Calgary	0.644	(0.045)	0.599
Columbus	0.337	0.072	0.409
NY Islanders	0.356	0.017	0.372
Toronto	0.326	0.039	0.365
Carolina	0.333	0.031	0.365
Washington	0.315	0.016	0.331
Winnipeg	0.318	0.001	0.319
Pittsburgh	0.279	0.009	0.288
San Jose	0.292	(0.010)	0.282
St. Louis	0.253	0.017	0.270
Colorado	0.191	0.045	0.236
Nashville	0.227	0.003	0.231
Vegas	0.236	(0.018)	0.218
Dallas	0.137	0.026	0.163
Montreal	0.134	(0.001)	0.133
Florida	(0.159)	0.012	(0.146)
Arizona	(0.122)	(0.027)	(0.149)
Chicago	(0.256)	0.016	(0.241)
Minnesota	(0.317)	0.018	(0.299)
Vancouver	(0.354)	(0.002)	(0.355)
Philadelphia	(0.451)	0.026	(0.426)
Edmonton	(0.512)	0.002	(0.510)
Buffalo	(0.549)	0.031	(0.518)
NY Rangers	(0.549)	0.030	(0.519)
Detroit	(0.585)	0.032	(0.553)
New Jersey	(0.646)	0.035	(0.612)
Anaheim	(0.634)	0.003	(0.631)
Ottawa	(0.732)	0.039	(0.693)
Los Angeles	(0.744)	0.012	(0.732)

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Doctor No]

Conference final series:

Winner	Games	Percent
BOS	4	9%
BOS	5	18%
BOS	6	17%
BOS	7	18%
CAR	7	12%
CAR	6	14%
CAR	5	8%
CAR	4	4%
BOS		62%
CAR		38%

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Winner	Games	Percent
SJS	4	6%
SJS	5	14%
SJS	6	14%
SJS	7	18%
STL	7	14%
STL	6	17%
STL	5	11%
STL	4	6%
SJS		52%
STL		48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Conference final series:

Winner	Games	Percent
BOS	4	9%
BOS	5	18%
BOS	6	17%
BOS	7	18%
CAR	7	12%
CAR	6	14%
CAR	5	8%
CAR	4	4%
BOS		62%
CAR		38%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Winner	Games	Percent
SJS	4	6%
SJS	5	14%
SJS	6	14%
SJS	7	18%
STL	7	14%
STL	6	17%
STL	5	11%
STL	4	6%
SJS		52%
STL		48%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Out of curiosity, why does the system see St. Louis as being more likely to win in 6 than 7 (given that it expects, narrowly, San Jose to win overall)? Does that have to do with home ice (ie if they can't win on home ice in game 6, they're less likely to win on the road in game 7)? (The same seems to be true with Carolina).

 

[Doctor No]

Yeah, the model applies a small (0.313 goals in this case) adjustment to the home team, which tips the needle in St. Louis' direction (as you can see from the above table, they're only separated by 0.012 goals/game).