OT: Official COVID-19 Thread

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chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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I’m with AKL on this one. What we’re doing now is just a delaying action. Get the hospitals up to speed on best treatment options. Get supplies stockpiled and supply chains in efficient working order.

It’s inevitable, with the viruses long incubation period and large number of asymptomatic cases, that this will be with us for a long time. Most of us will get it. It might even become like the seasonal flu, something we just accept because there’s little we can do about, if it mutates as readily as the flu virus does.

It’s my belief that when hospitals are prepared and supplied, we should “ rip the bandaid off”. Let the disease run its course, knowing, like with the flu, that many people, the weak, the unhealthy, the elderly, will die. Just hope that you and the ones you love, aren’t one of those people.
 
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JMCx4

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... It’s my belief that when hospitals are prepared and supplied, we should “rip the bandaid off”. Let the disease run its course, knowing, like with the flu, that many people, the weak, the unhealthy, the elderly, will die. Just hope that you and the ones you love, aren’t one of those people.
Following careful consideration of your position in this matter, I would like to volunteer to be the first one to "rip the bandaid off" of certain hairy parts of your body. And I'll be sure to bring the extra large, industrial adhesive bandages to that party. :shakehead
 

chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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Following careful consideration of your position in this matter, I would like to volunteer to be the first one to "rip the bandaid off" of certain hairy parts of your body. And I'll be sure to bring the extra large, industrial adhesive bandages to that party. :shakehead
I don’t think you understand, nothing we are doing will keep anyone from getting it. Someone will always be carrying it, and as soon as we go back to work, it will spread. This is not going away.
 

Bazeek

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Meaning no offense to Dr Fauci, "never shake hands again" sounds like something only an epidemiologist would say. It's like telling Italians to never hug again.
 

JMCx4

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... We planned a family reunion in July at Myrtle Beach before all this went down. Rented out a big house, and will fill it with about 25 people ranging in ages from 10-80. All of us will have to fly there, some from the West Coast. Doesn't seem to be wise right now. Will it be worth it if Grandma ends up catching Covid-19 as a result of all the travel and the attendant exposure? ...
My answer to that question would be an unequivocal & resounding NO!

My smaller family of 6 siblings & in-laws (upper 50s thru lower 70s in age) just this past week cancelled our long-anticipated 7 days together in Eastern B.C. for mid-July. We would've been flying separately into Calgary from Florida & the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest U.S. for a drive through Banff Nat'l. Park & a reunion we can only manage every 3 or 4 years, sharing a multi-bedroom rental house near a lake & with views of the Canadian Rockies (all parties' first visits to the region). But current & foreseeable conditions made our unanimous decision an easy if painful one. There's a chance, considering our collective ages, that this will be our last opportunity for such a remote family get-together. But we'd all prefer to retain the option to try it another summer with all 6 of us still around to enjoy it.
 

chchelseII

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Meaning no offense to Dr Fauci, "never shake hands again" sounds like something only an epidemiologist would say. It's like telling Italians to never hug again.
I could do that. Most these diseases are contracted through hand contact. Even with a mask, you open a door, then rub your eyes, your sick. You use a community computer ( we have a number of these at my work), you touch the keyboard then open your can of Coke and take a drink your sick. The absolute best way to avoid this is wash your hands, a lot.
 
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JMCx4

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I don’t think you understand, nothing we are doing will keep anyone from getting it. Someone will always be carrying it, and as soon as we go back to work, it will spread. This is not going away.
Oh, but I do understand all that, and I don't relish the possibilities any more than you. But that understanding does not diminish my astonishment that people like you would be so quick to dismiss "the weak, the unhealthy, the elderly" as nothing more than necessary collateral damage in the ultimate outcome of this pandemic. I grieve for those who may someday have you in charge of their lives.
 
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Northerner

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Feb 23, 2017
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Oh, but I do understand all that, and I don't relish the possibilities any more than you. But that understanding does not diminish my astonishment that people like you would be so quick to dismiss "the weak, the unhealthy, the elderly" as nothing more than necessary collateral damage in the ultimate outcome of this pandemic. I grieve for those who may someday have you in charge of their lives.

And if many more die due to suicides because they lost everything? What is your thoughts on that? Or if poverty, bankruptcy and crime balloon, what are your thoughts on that?

(And I don't think that poster was hoping the weak, and elderly die.)
 

SupremeNachos

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Five weeks ago it was widely reported that Seattle was the hardest hit area in the US for corona virus which is probably why they decided to put a field hospital there. Now “The hastily built field hospital set up by the Army in Seattle's pro football stadium is shutting down without ever seeing a patient” -https://news.yahoo.com/armys-seattle-field-hospital-closes-165646379.html.



”Durkan said the judgment has been made that the state's hospitals currently have the capacity to deal with the coronavirus threat.”
You've heard the phrase "hope for the best, plan for the worst"? With things like this it's always better to overreact than stay passive. We've already seen what happens in both scenarios around the world.

And if many more die due to suicides because they lost everything? What is your thoughts on that? Or if poverty, bankruptcy and crime balloon, what are your thoughts on that?

(And I don't think that poster was hoping the weak, and elderly die.)
How many people do you think will die from the aftermath of this versus letting people go out and live like they did before this all started? There will always be people who will be affected negatively by these global events and I need to believe that most places are doing their best to help everyone. But we all know you can't help every single person.

I don’t think you understand, nothing we are doing will keep anyone from getting it. Someone will always be carrying it, and as soon as we go back to work, it will spread. This is not going away.
This is up there with Florida's governor saying no one under the age of 25 has died from Covid. There are tons of people who are staying safe by staying home. A lot of those people are the same ones who have to do that any other time of the year whether it be Covid or just the seasonal flu.
 
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Bazeek

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I could do that. Most these diseases are contracted through hand contact. Even with a mask, you open a door, then rub your eyes, your sick. You use a community computer ( we have a number of these at my work), you touch the keyboard then open your can of Coke and take a drink your sick. The absolute best way to avoid this is wash your hands, a lot.
I could do it, too. Heck, I practically do it now. But I'm not 350 million people with established social norms. We have to stay at least a little grounded in our expectations for what people will willingly put up with and how long they'll put up with it.
 

chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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You've heard the phrase "hope for the best, plan for the worst"? With things like this it's always better to overreact than stay passive. We've already seen what happens in both scenarios around the world.


How many people do you think will die from the aftermath of this versus letting people go out and live like they did before this all started? There will always be people who will be affected negatively by these global events and I need to believe that most places are doing their best to help everyone. But we all know you can't help every single person.


This is up there with Florida's governor saying no one under the age of 25 has died from Covid. There are tons of people who are staying safe by staying home. A lot of those people are the same ones who have to do that any other time of the year whether it be Covid or just the seasonal flu.
Yes, we’re keeping people from getting it now by isolating ourselves today, but what is the end game in this strategy? At some point, most of us will have to integrate back into society, and are immediately back at risk. Do you think the virus is somehow going to disappear on a worldwide level?
Your always going to have some people, 1000 going to a church service in Louisiana, a guy in Idaho screaming for his right to assemble, and yes, some idiot governor in Florida who somehow thinks it’s okay for kids to go back to school without any consequences. Every time this type of behavior happens you might as well reset the clock at zero and start the countdown over. I drove buy a bar on my way home from work on Wednesday, and there were 100 people, mostly bikers, having a barbecue in the parking lot.
Like I say, this isn’t going away any time soon.
Before you lump me in with the Florida Governor, because I try to think ahead and figure out what I believe the inevitable outcome of this is, perhaps you should try to think ahead instead of thinking in the moment.
I may be wrong, but I would love to hear your idea of what you think is going to happen in regards to this disease.
 

SupremeNachos

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Dec 6, 2011
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Yes, we’re keeping people from getting it now by isolating ourselves today, but what is the end game in this strategy? At some point, most of us will have to integrate back into society, and are immediately back at risk. Do you think the virus is somehow going to disappear on a worldwide level?
Your always going to have some people, 1000 going to a church service in Louisiana, a guy in Idaho screaming for his right to assemble, and yes, some idiot governor in Florida who somehow thinks it’s okay for kids to go back to school without any consequences. Every time this type of behavior happens you might as well reset the clock at zero and start the countdown over. I drove buy a bar on my way home from work on Wednesday, and there were 100 people, mostly bikers, having a barbecue in the parking lot.
Like I say, this isn’t going away any time soon.
Before you lump me in with the Florida Governor, because I try to think ahead and figure out what I believe the inevitable outcome of this is, perhaps you should try to think ahead instead of thinking in the moment.
I may be wrong, but I would love to hear your idea of what you think is going to happen in regards to this disease.
No one thinks we should keep the shutdown going indefinitely but, that doesn't mean those at risk need to be exposed to any unnecessary risks. It's not as black and white as you seem to want to make it. There are plenty of people who are the main source of income but live with a high risk individual, so it's not as simple as saying "Go back to work cause it's not as bad now".

If you see people in your community that are not taking this seriously there are numbers you can call to report them. So maybe next time you drive by that biker bar you give the police a ring so they can tell everyone to go the f*** home. Doing nothing is just as bad as joining them right now.
 
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JMCx4

Censorship is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
Sep 3, 2017
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And if many more die due to suicides because they lost everything? What is your thoughts on that? Or if poverty, bankruptcy and crime balloon, what are your thoughts on that?

(And I don't think that poster was hoping the weak, and elderly die.)
My thought on all of those scenarios is that they would be (and probably will be) tragic outcomes of this pandemic. But I would hope that chchelse & you & others would not marginalize those people by your words OR by your actions. Choose them both carefully.
 

Northerner

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Feb 23, 2017
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My thought on all of those scenarios is that they would be (and probably will be) tragic outcomes of this pandemic. But I would hope that chchelse & you & others would not marginalize those people by your words OR by your actions. Choose them both carefully.

Interesting. Those are tragic outcomes. That's exactly what the poster you were referring to called those who potentially die if we opened back up.
 

JMCx4

Censorship is the Sincerest Form of Flattery
Sep 3, 2017
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St. Louis, MO
Interesting. Those are tragic outcomes. That's exactly what the poster you were referring to called those who potentially die if we opened back up.
Offering you and said poster the benefit of the doubt, I went back through every one of their posts in this thread. Not one "tragic outcome" nor "tragic" nor "tragedy" nor any discernible synonyms thereof. It all seems consistent with the attitude conveyed that I objected to. So I will stand by my own words.
 

Northerner

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Feb 23, 2017
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Offering you and said poster the benefit of the doubt, I went back through every one of their posts in this thread. Not one "tragic outcome" nor "tragic" nor "tragedy" nor any discernible synonyms thereof. It all seems consistent with the attitude conveyed that I objected to. So I will stand by my own words.

So you don't give them the benefit of the doubt. Got it.

In your opinion, do you think all of us who believe we have a duty to consider the ramifications of an indefinite "shut down" (and surely the many thousands of suicides that will come with that) want to see the elderly, unhealthy and weak die?
 
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chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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Maybe if you didn't make blanket asinine statements I wouldn't think of putting you in with idiots like him. No one thinks we should keep the shutdown going indefinitely but, that doesn't mean those at risk need to be exposed to any unnecessary risks. It's not as black and white as you seem to want to make it. There are plenty of people who are the main source of income but live with a high risk individual, so it's not as simple as saying "Go back to work cause it's not as bad now".

If you see people in your community that are not taking this seriously there are numbers you can call to report them. So maybe next time you drive by that biker bar you give the police a ring so they can tell everyone to go the f*** home. Doing nothing is just as bad as joining them right now.

In an effort to have a constructive, intelligent discussion:
So there’s no mistake, I am not like many people who are advocating starting the economy and sacrificing the elderly. I find it sad, though, not unexpected, that so many people have adopted a me-first attitude, rather than coming together as a people, and being caring , loving members of a community. We, as a society, have become so divided recently. Politically, religiously, racially, ideologically we all seem to be in contention with each other, rather than coming together for the benefit of all. It’s become downright hostile.
With that said, my position is this.
1. The Coronavirus is with us and will continue to be with us for a long time, and by this I mean not weeks or months, but years. Depending on its ability to mutate (there are 8 strains last I heard) it may be with us , like the flu, for our lifetimes.
2. The elderly, immune compromised, young, and people with underlying comorbidities will always be at risk. It’s the nature of life. You can certainly put these people in a protective bubble, which is sometimes the case, but this then becomes a quality of life issue.
3. Thus, we have a highly contagious disease that will negatively effect and possibly kill these at risk people. Just like the flu, which kills 10’s of thousands each year. I don’t see how this can be avoided. If it could be avoided, then we wouldn’t have all the deaths each year from the flu.
4. The problem with this disease is it is highly contagious, with a long incubation period and asymptomatic carriers. Thus it spreads to a large segment of the population with devastating effect.
5. Are health system was not prepared to deal with this huge influx of people needing intensive care.
6. The best we can do is slow the disease as much as possible so our health care system can get up to speed, so they can handle this huge influx of patients needing critical care. It also gives time to develop treatment options. I don’t know how long this will take.
7. At some point, society will have to return to normal, Covid19 will still be with us and high risk groups will still be in danger, but we will better able to treat these patients. There will probably be herd immunity at this point.
8. Vaccines may be available in the future, but if it constantly mutating, like the flu virus, they may be, like the flu vaccines, minimally effective.

Constructive comments are welcome and encouraged.
 
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Minnewildsota

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You seem to like to demean me. You’re certainly being confrontational and mean spirited, when I’m trying to have an intelligent discussion.
So there’s no mistake, I am not like many people who are advocating starting the economy and sacrificing the elderly. I find it sad, though, not unexpected, that so many people have adopted a me-first attitude, rather than coming together as a people, and being caring , loving members of a community. We, as a society, have become so divided recently. Politically, religiously, racially, ideologically we all seem to be in contention with each other, rather than coming together for the benefit of all. It’s become downright hostile.
With that said, my position is this.
1. The Coronavirus is with us and will continue to be with us for a long time, and by this I mean not weeks or months, but years. Depending on its ability to mutate (there are 8 strains last I heard) it may be with us , like the flu, for our lifetimes.
2. The elderly, immune compromised, young, and people with underlying comorbidities will always be at risk. It’s the nature of life. You can certainly put these people in a protective bubble, which is sometimes the case, but this then becomes a quality of life issue.
3. Thus, we have a highly contagious disease that will negatively effect and possibly kill these at risk people. Just like the flu, which kills 10’s of thousands each year. I don’t see how this can be avoided. If it could be avoided, then we wouldn’t have all the deaths each year from the flu.
4. The problem with this disease is it is highly contagious, with a long incubation period and asymptomatic carriers. Thus it spreads to a large segment of the population with devastating effect.
5. Are health system was not prepared to deal with this huge influx of people needing intensive care.
6. The best we can do is slow the disease as much as possible so our health care system can get up to speed, so they can handle this huge influx of patients needing critical care. It also gives time to develop treatment options. I don’t know how long this will take.
7. At some point, society will have to return to normal, Covid19 will still be with us and high risk groups will still be in danger, but we will better able to treat these patients. There will probably be herd immunity at this point.
8. Vaccines may be available in the future, but if it constantly mutating, like the flu virus, they may be, like the flu vaccines, minimally effective.

Constructive comments are welcome and encouraged.

To expand on this point though is that the more people it touches, the greater probability it mutates. The more times it mutates, the more problematic it becomes.
 

chchelseII

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Sep 24, 2014
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To expand on this point though is that the more people it touches, the greater probability it mutates. The more times it mutates, the more problematic it becomes.
This is true, although to date, is seems to mutate more slowly than the flu, and the mutations have been minimal, a couple base pair changes at this point.
 

Bazeek

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This is true, although to date, is seems to mutate more slowly than the flu, and the mutations have been minimal, a couple base pair changes at this point.
Yup.
Still, because SARS-CoV-2 is an RNA virus, it presents a challenge in its potential ability to mutate around vaccines that may target one specific point and thus become resistant. For the time being, that doesn’t appear to be happening, Greene said, noting that its genetic sequence has stayed pretty constant among isolates from China, South Korea and so forth. That’s because it has a “proofreader enzyme,” making it much less prone to mistakes as it replicates and less mutable than HIV or hepatitis C.

The error bars on all the number still seem very very wide to me but they're beginning to narrow, and as they do it seems like most models are revising their projections down. The Army Corps of Engineers is rolling out a huge, 3000 bed field hospital in the McCormick Center in Chicago right now, and it'll be interesting to see how busy it gets. Similar field hospitals in New York and Boston haven't exactly been overrun, but it's still early.

Overall census numbers around the country are dropping right now, to the extent that many clinics and some hospitals are furloughing or laying off employees. "Non-essential" procedures are being rescheduled for later but that often includes things like prepping for dialysis or removing tumors; things where waiting weeks on end can make manageable cases worse. There also seems to be increasing talk of treating this more like altitude sickness: using less invasive over-the nose ventilation and rolling patients over to lay on their stomachs seems to help enough to avoid full-on intubation in some cases. This could help reduce the need for ventilators, which alleviates that bottleneck as well.

So pieces are moving everywhere. Testing has been and should continue to improve. Treatment options seem to be improving. I still have very little confidence in the overall numbers, but the calculated fatality rates keep getting revised down: initially everyone seemed to be looking at around 3% but FEMA's report yesterday implies something closer to 0.15%, which would've had people calling you all kinds of names a few weeks ago. The projected hospitalization (2.7%) and ICU (0.5%) percentages also look remarkably low.

All of which is to say that the long term picture appears to be manageable, even allowing for all of the uncertainty. I think figuring out an "exit strategy" that won't trigger an ugly second peak is going to be tricky, but possible. Beyond this year I'd be surprised if we worry any more about this than we do SARS or other nasty respiratory viruses.
 

Dickie Dunn

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Jan 4, 2016
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What does “rip the bandaid off” even mean? As if there is some normalcy behind the curtain and we can all just step back into our lives as they were? I’m not in favor of a prolonged shut down either but I don’t think the populace can be trusted with calling the shots. The only reason we aren’t Italy is because of the aggressive social distancing. Open it back up too soon and every major city will need refrigerator trucks to store the corpses until they can be transported to mass burial sites. Is that what we are in a hurry to do? Because that is what will happen.
 

SupremeNachos

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Dec 6, 2011
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What does “rip the bandaid off” even mean? As if there is some normalcy behind the curtain and we can all just step back into our lives as they were? I’m not in favor of a prolonged shut down either but I don’t think the populace can be trusted with calling the shots. The only reason we aren’t Italy is because of the aggressive social distancing. Open it back up too soon and every major city will need refrigerator trucks to store the corpses until they can be transported to mass burial sites. Is that what we are in a hurry to do? Because that is what will happen.
I think the biggest obstacle is the lack of communication between the state and federal levels. Politics aside, there is still way too much finger pointing going on and not enough getting done.
 

Northerner

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Feb 23, 2017
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I saw Menards packed today as I drove to Minnetonka; Cubs, Byerlys, Aldis? Packed...all 8 or so of them I saw on my drive from St. Paul.


Where is this "social distancing" we are hearing about?
 

Minnewildsota

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Jun 7, 2010
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I saw Menards packed today as I drove to Minnetonka; Cubs, Byerlys, Aldis? Packed...all 8 or so of them I saw on my drive from St. Paul.


Where is this "social distancing" we are hearing about?

So you looked at essential places that people are REQUIRED to go to, you know, for food and drew on the conclusion that people aren't social distancing? Way to cherry pick your statistics. While I agree that not everybody is following what needs to be done, I don't think you can come out and blatantly say that people aren't social distancing. The point isn't to isolate people from any contact, the point is to reduce the amount of contact people have with others. Obviously, the greater the reduced rate the better.

I went to Hy-Vee the other day, I know shame me for not "social distancing" even though I've been cooped up in my house alone for 3-4 weeks, they're doing everything possible to reduce contact. There were specific ways you can go down aisles, check out belts were wiped down after each person, and 6 foot markers were at every checkout. To say social distancing isn't occurring is quite frankly ignorant.
 
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