NHL Realignment 2012-13 – Part III

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by MoreOrr, Oct 17, 2011.

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  1. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    Continued from:
    http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=951121&page=40

    So, what have we learned so far? Not much really!

    It appears that we can be certain only about one thing… Winnipeg is to be in the West, and therefore we can predict with fairly good confidence that one of either Detroit, Columbus, or Nashville will be in the East to ultimately fill the vacancy.

    What else do we know?
    1) The League apparently isn’t keen on changing to 4 Divisions.
    2) The two northeastern Divisions aren’t keen on changing anything.
    3) Minnesota wants out of the Northwest, and especially doesn’t want to be in an otherwise all-Canadian Division.
    4) Dallas wants out of the Pacific.
    5) Detroit feels it deserves a spot in the East, but is willing for a compromise.
    6) Nashville believes the Southeast is a natural fit.
    7) Columbus, like Detroit, was also once promised an eventual spot in the East.
    8) Lamoriello feels confident that realignment won't effect the Devils.
    9) NHL wants some decision by the end of December meetings or soon there after.
    10) A more balanced scheduling matrix was also proposed by Bettman, along with the 4-Division idea.
    11) ... Have I left anything out??

    NHL realignment: There’s no simple solution Oct. 13
    http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/news?slug=nc-cotsonika-3periods_realignment_101311

    NHL realignment talk has Red Wings moving East, but Detroit's willing to compromise, too Oct. 13
    http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2011/10/nhl_realignment_talk_has_red_w.html

    NHL Realignment Could Move Detroit Red Wings To Southeast, Winnipeg To Central Oct. 12
    http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2011/10/12/2486850/nhl-realignment-detroit-red-wings-winnipeg-jets

    Bettman facing challenging season with realignment, CBA, Coyotes ownership Oct. 04
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...ignment-cba-coyotes-ownership/article2190828/

    Numerous realignment possibilities exist Oct. 04
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=594302

    NHL begins realignment talks Sep. 21
    http://www.thescore.com/home/articles/170651-the-times-they-are-a-changing

    NHL sets December realignment deadline Sep. 20
    http://msn.foxsports.com/nhl/story/NHL-sets-December-deadline-for-realignment-092011

    NHL execs meet, talk realignment Sep. 22
    http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/6997715/nhl-board-governors-meet-talk-realignment

    Bettman will make final call on Jets Sep. 22
    http://www.montrealgazette.com/sports/Bettman+will+make+final+call+Jets/5439529/story.html

    League wants realignment decision by December Sep. 20
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=589117&print=true

    Post any other past links that you think are a good reference to include.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2011
  2. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    Which List should the League work from in deciding a new alignment?

    LIST 1
    Anaheim Ducks
    Boston Bruins
    Buffalo Sabres
    Calgary Flames
    Carolina Hurricanes
    Chicago Blackhawks
    Colorado Avalanche
    Columbus Blue Jackets
    Dallas Stars
    Detroit Red Wings
    Edmonton Oilers
    Florida Panthers
    Los Angeles Kings
    Minnesota Wild
    Montreal Canadiens
    Nashville Predators
    New Jersey Devils
    New York Islanders
    New York Rangers
    Philadelphia Flyers
    Phoenix Coyotes
    Pittsburgh Penguins
    Ottawa Senators
    San Jose Sharks
    St Louis Blues
    Tampa Bay Lightning
    Toronto Maple Leafs
    Vancouver Canucks
    Washington Capitals
    Winnipeg Jets

    LIST 2

    LIST 3

    Each team should be permitted to submit a short-list of one or two things it doesn't want in an alignment...
    Such as not being in a 3 Time Zone Division, or being the lone Canadian team in an otherwise all-Canadian Division.

    And each team should be permitted to submit a short-list of two or three opponent teams that it wants to be aligned with in a Division, understanding that it might end up with only one or two of those teams.
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2011
  3. Honestly, I don't see the NHL doing more than the minimum required to move the Jets out of the Southeast. I suspect that the Jets move into the Wings spot, the Wings move into Washington's spot and Washington moves into Atlanta's spot. Yea, I know, rivalries and all that. Better to piss off one team, Washington, than to piss off a half dozen teams. I doubt that PGH and PHL will scream all that much because they have an in-state rivalry.
     
  4. Taro Tsujimoto

    Taro Tsujimoto Registered User

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    Except for the fact that Washington and Atlanta/Winnipeg are in the same division...
     
  5. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    Ahhh, Washington is already in the Southeast.
     
  6. Cynicaps

    Cynicaps Registered User

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    You really think a straight Winnipeg-for-Detroit swap would only piss Washington off? I'd love to hear your reasoning because I can think of at least four other teams (Carolina, Columbus, Minnesota, Dallas) that would be as pissed off if not more than Washington. I'd toss Tampa Bay in if not for the Yzerman rivalry and Florida given how they'd let the money from 3x Detroit bleed out that it may permanently cripple the franchise.
     
  7. Crayton

    Crayton Registered User

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    I wonder... there have been a couple ideas on how both Detroit and Columbus could be given less Pacific games while keeping those trips done by current East teams about the same. There has been the 14-16 conference split and then the 2-division West format (where Detroit is given more Eastern games and less Pacific games though still in the Central Division).

    How would a compromise work for Detroit while keeping, roughly, the current 6 division format? Here are rudimentary ideas.

    Fix #1) A basic idea would be for Detroit to drop some games against teams in the far west and add games against the Eastern Conference. To balance this, the far-western teams would drop some games against the Eastern Conference and add some games against each other (Northwest vs. Pacific). Beside Detroit, teams would change no more than 2 or 4 games.

    Detroit currently plays 32 games vs. teams in the PTZ or MTZ, this is 16 away games. Reduction to 20 games (10 away) would be ideal for Detroit, by dropping 2 games against 6 of those far-western teams. These 12 extra games could be used to play every team in the Eastern Conference twice.

    Those far-western teams will have lost 12 games against Detroit and a further 12 games against Eastern Conference opponents. To compensate, 6 pairs of NW-PAC teams will play a full division's worth of games against one another. This would be a simple way to put Vancouver in Dallas's Pacific spot while continuing to give them 6 games vs. Edmonton and/or Calgary.

    Fix #2) A more moderate proposal, which does not involve tinkering with cross-conference games, would be for Detroit to drop 2 games against 2 Pacific teams (total of 4), and add those games against 2 CTZ teams outside of the Central Division, like Winnipeg & Dallas/Minnesota. These two CTZ teams would then also drop 2 games against a 3rd and 4th far-western team (a plus for them). Finally, these 4 far-western teams would add back their 2 lost games against each other.

    Fix #3) A combination of these two. Far-western teams lose 12 games against Detroit, 4 games against Winnipeg & Dallas/Minnesota, but only 8 games against the Eastern Conference. 6 pairs of NW-PAC rivalries still jump to the division standard of 6 games. Detroit drops 12 games against the far-western teams, adds 4 games vs. Win/Dal/Min, and 8 games vs. the Eastern Conference.

    This reduces the shift in Eastern Conference games where Detroit might play 30 EC games while San Jose plays 16 (to a 26-17 maximum disparity). It increases intra-far-western games, without reverting to a full 2-division West. And it even helps whoever is "stranded" in the Northwest or Pacific, by shifting 2 of their far-western games to games vs. Detroit.
     
  8. You can't make everyone happy. Someone's going to cry over lost revenue regardless of which teams move. Yea, Detroit gets big crowds everywhere. Better to move just Detroit than to move NY north, Toronto west, Winipeg east, Detroit east, Colombus east, St. louis east, Boston into the Pacific (just kidding) or whatever.

    The more that I read the crazy major realignment propositions on this board the more I recall Occams Razor. The simplest solution is the best. The fewer teamst to move, the fewer problems.
     
  9. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    Again, it's not a simply fill a vacancy in the East scenario. There are alignment grievances, and if slotting Winnipeg in a specific alignment in the West, and whatever ripple effect from that, can help resolve or diminish some of those grievances then why shouldn't the League make an effort to look at that.

    And secondly, not all alignment discontent or potential discontent is equal. If bettering one problem creates another, then it's a matter of which is better/worse... the problem which could be made better or the problem that could be created.


    So, allow me to rehash the above potential circumstances a bit:
    Just focusing for now on the West...
    A) Leave Winnipeg in the Central.
    1. Minnesota is unhappy because they say it makes more sense it be them.
    2. Dallas is still unhappy stuck in the worst 3 Time Zone alignment.
    3. Winnipeg is more or less content, still happy they've got a team, but in a Division with no other Canadian teams and almost no logical potential rivals (no Minnesota, no Edmonton, no Calgary, no Toronto) other than Chicago.

    B) Put Winnipeg in the Northwest, Minnesota in the Central.
    1. Colorado now complains that they're the only US-based team in an otherwise all-Canadian Division (and Colorado (state) doesn't even border on Canada.
    2. Dallas is still unhappy in virtually the worst-case alignment in the League.

    C) Put Winnipeg in the Northwest, Colorado in the Pacific.
    1. Minnesota is then more unhappy. Time Zone alignment has slightly improved, but now with 4 Canadian teams.
    2. * Ahhh, finally Dallas escapes.
    3. Vancouver may be happy with another Canadian team, but now there are 2 teams 2 Time Zones away in the Division.

    D) Put Winnipeg in the Northwest, Vancouver in the Pacific.
    1. Minnesota's situation is improved somewhat. Still 3 Canadian teams, but now one team in its Time Zone, and there's still Colorado.
    2. * Dallas escapes.
    3. Vancouver is unhappy, separated from the Alberta teams (but Time Zone is better).

    So, Vancouver the lone Canadian team, or Winnipeg the lone Canadian team?
    Dallas happy and Minnesota less unhappy?
    Dallas unhappy and Minnesota happy?
    Minnesota unhappy or Colorado unhappy?
     
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2011
  10. Crayton

    Crayton Registered User

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    Here are possible scheduling fixes given each of 4 far-western alignments. The +/- represent pairs of games (1 home, 1 away), so "-DET" means a reduction in games vs. Detroit from 4 games to 2. "EC" means Eastern Conference.

    Some are these "fixes" are preferable, some are not. You could rearrange some of the "-X"s because those given are just examples; some (like Canadian teams' EC games) would likely rotate through the years.

    SCENARIO #1 (Minneosta to Central)
    Winnipeg +DET -SJ
    Colorado -EC +PHX
    Edmonton -DET -EC +LA +SJ
    Calgary -DET +ANA
    Vancouver -DET -DAL +SJ +LA

    Dallas +DET -VAN
    San Jose -WPG -EC +VAN +EDM
    Anaheim -DET +CGY
    Los Angeles -DET +VAN -EC +EDM
    Phoenix -DET +COL

    SCENARIO #2 (Colorado to Pacific) *lose 1 East Canada vs. West Canada game
    Minnesota +DET - ANA -EC +COL
    Winnipeg +DET -SJ
    Edmonton -DET +ANA
    Calgary -DET -EC +ANA +PHX
    Vancouver -DET -EC +SJ +LA

    San Jose +VAN -WPG
    Anaheim -MIN +CGY +EDM -EC
    Los Angeles -DET +VAN
    Colorado +MIN -DET
    Phoenix +CGY -DET

    SCENARIO #3 (Vancouver to Pacific) *lose 1 East Canada vs. West Canada game
    Minnesota +DET -EC
    Winnipeg +DET -SJ
    Colorado -DET +PHX +SJ -EC
    Edmonton -DET +VAN +LA -EC
    Calgary -DET +VAN

    Vancouver -DET +EDM +CGY -EC
    San Jose +COL -WPG
    Anaheim
    Los Angeles -DET +EDM
    Phoenix -DET +COL

    SCENARIO #4 (Winnipeg to Central)
    Minnesota +DET -EC
    Colorado -EC +PHX
    Edmonton -DET +LA
    Calgary -DET +ANA
    Vancouver -DET -DAL +SJ +LA

    Dallas +DET -VAN
    Phoenix -DET +COL
    Los Angeles -DET -EC +VAN +EDM
    Anaheim -DET +CGY
    San Jose -EC +VAN

    As you can see, most of these switches are a wash for individual teams. That is, when you consider that the "-DET"s would be imposed by the league.
     
  11. canuckster19

    canuckster19 Former CDC Mod

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    I hardly see the league giving in to Detroit's demand for playing an unbalanced schedule.

    IMO, Nashville goes SE, Dallas into Central, Winnipeg into NW, and Vancouver into Pacific.
     
  12. KevFu

    KevFu Registered User

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    Why can't they align in a six-division format, with CBJ, DET, etc, sliding over... but schedule like a four-division (or five-division) alignment based on timezones?
     
  13. danishh

    danishh Registered User

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    NE: Ottawa, Montreal, Toronto, Buffalo, Boston
    ATL: NYR, NYI, NJ, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
    SE: Florida, Tampa Bay, Washington, Carolina, Nashville

    CEN: Detroit, Chicago, Columbus, St. Louis, Dallas
    NW: Edmonton, Calgary, Colorado, Minnesota, Winnipeg
    PAC: Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Phoenix


    happy: Nashville gets a spot in the traditional south, where history and culture makes them a natural fit. North East and Atlantic teams get to keep things the way they are, which they want. I would assume the remaining south east teams are also happy getting nashville. Dallas is happy to get out of the pacific. Chicago and St. Louis are happy because they get to keep detroit. Pacific teams minus vancouver are happy to get a good drawing market within the division, and because the division loses a timezone.

    Unhappy: Detroit and Columbus because they're still in the west. Edmonton and Calgary because they lose Vancouver. Colorado and Minnesota because they're still in the "canadian" division. Vancouver because they're out of the canadian division.

    Total for: 15 guaranteed, 7 expected additionally.
    Total against: 7, possibly 1 more.


    this proposal should pass, despite vocal grumblings from detroit and columbus.
     
  14. Dave is a killer

    Dave is a killer Dave's a Mess

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    Can't they wait until the league adds two teams (you know it's going to happen)

    4 divisions of 8 teams ... NW, SW, NE & SE ... but If it doesn't ... Go with the 3 Conference x 10 teams in each Conference that was floated a few years ago by one of the writers in Minnesota.
     
  15. danishh

    danishh Registered User

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    they could, but before expansion they need to stabilize franchises in trouble (phoenix), franchises trying to get new arenas (edmonton, nyi), and franchises being sold (dallas, st. louis). Then they need to begin the expansion process, which generally takes a few years.

    are they comfortable just leaving winnipeg in the south east for what looks like a minimum of 4-5 years right now?
     
  16. The rest of the Southwest Div will be very unhappy. Unless there is a large Canadian retiree presence (like here in Phoenix) in Carolina, Tampa and DC, Winnipeg isn't going to be a huge draw.

    IMO if Winnipeg stays put it is because 1. TNSE owes the NHL one and the NHL is cashing in, and 2. It would only be for one year because the NHL would be seriously considering moving the Coyotes to QC.
     
  17. Canuckommunist

    Canuckommunist Registered User

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    4 divisions is the best idea proposed so far imo., alongside a more balanced scheduling matrix. It also sets up the league for more long-term expansion.

    But yeah, nothing's that simple and there's no easy fix.
     
  18. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    Give those two posts ****Stars...

    Yes, that alignment seems like it would be the best compromise, greater satisfying scenario that could be applied.

    If Columbus and Detroit can't both go East, it's best to just leave both together in the West. Columbus would be worse off if left as the lone ETZ team in the West, and the West would be worse off if the only great fan-draw team is put in the East. And Nashville is the logical fit in the Southeast. Detroit taking the Southeast slot would be a convoluted alignment at best, and if the other two Divisions refuse to be changed up then, well Nashville is the best alternative.

    I wouldn't say it does Nashville a favor being in the Southeast, nor that it does the Southeast a favor having another not well-established hockey market there, but again it is a natural fit.

    As for the West, no matter what alignment option is chosen, someone loses. But Vancouver going into the Pacific seems to be the lesser evil. It improves Minnesota's alignment, doesn't really hurt Colorado's alignment nor that of the Alberta teams because they get Winnipeg in exchange, and it's also a good alignment for Winnipeg. And of course Dallas benefits immensely.

    The loser is Vancouver, but that loss of games against the Alberta teams is slightly eased by getting a better Time Zone alignment.

    So no, I don't necessarily think the Alberta teams would be unhappy, they're just trading one Canadian rival for another, and Winnipeg for the moment at least gives them a weaker opponent.

    Now as for the scheduling,... Yes, why not apply a somewhat changed up schedule which could ease the situation not only for Detroit and Columbus but also for some of the CTZ teams.

    Any of the following scheduling matrixes could be used, keeping balance of number of Home-ice games between Conference opponents, while reducing the number of games between certain Conference opponents. (In Detroit's and Columbus' case, for instance, used to reduce the number of games against PTZ teams.)

    A)
    24 = 6 x 4 games vs Div opponents
    24 = 4 x 6 games vs 6 Conf opponents
    8 = 2 x 4 games vs 4 Conf opponents
    22 = 2 x 11 games vs 11 other Conf teams
    4 = 1 x 4 games vs 4 other Conf teams

    B)
    24 = 6 x 4 games vs Div opponents
    20 = 4 x 5 games vs 5 Conf opponents
    10 = 2 x 5 games vs 5 Conf opponents
    26 = 2 x 13 games vs 13 other Conf teams
    2 = 1 x 2 games vs 2 other Conf teams

    C)
    24 = 6 x 4 games vs Div opponents
    28 = 4 x 7 games vs 7 Conf opponents
    6 = 2 x 3 games vs 3 Conf opponents
    18 = 2 x 9 games vs 9 other Conf teams
    6 = 1 x 6 games vs 6 other Conf teams

    D)
    30 = 6 x 5 games vs Div opponents plus 1 other in-Conf opponent
    20 = 4 x 5 games vs 5 Conf opponents
    8 = 2 x 4 games vs 4 Conf opponents
    18 = 2 x 9 games vs 9 other Conf teams
    6 = 1 x 6 games vs 6 other Conf teams

    But whichever matrix is applied has to be applied to all teams, not just Detroit and Columbus, and not just the Western Conference.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2011
  19. danishh

    danishh Registered User

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    i was going for 5 stars. only 4 really disappoints me orr.
     
  20. MoreOrr

    MoreOrr B4

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    :)
    It was that comment about Calgary and Edmonton being "unhappy". ;)

    To continue from the previous post...
    That scheduling matrix A), for instance, has 4 teams within the Conference that a particular team would only play 2 times. Those 4 teams, in the cases of Detroit and Columbus, could easily be the 4 PTZ teams (California teams + Vancouver).

    Another tidbit, not directly related to the previous post...
    The League actually only needs 19 votes, because currently there are only 29 to do the voting. Since Phoenix would really not be directly effected by any of the likely realignment scenarios, the Phoenix vote should be considered the automatic 20th vote. (It would be a bit problematic if Phoenix would be an effected team in any of these scenarios.)

    An EDIT to that part about Phoenix...
    I guess Phoenix might have a particular vote with respect to which Northwestern team might be put in the Pacific. Whoever would be representing Phoenix in the vote might prefer having Colorado in that Pacific Division. Nevertheless, it's a minor point because no alignment change can really hurt Phoenix, it's that Colorado in the Division would be a greater positive for Phoenix.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2011
  21. Buck Aki Berg

    Buck Aki Berg Done with this place

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    They have to get Winnipeg into a division that makes sense no matter what. If they do as little as possible (say a Winnipeg-for-Detroit swap or something equivalent), I would take that as a sign that there is expansion/relocation on the horizon, and they don't want to go through this nonsense twice in a 5-10 year span.
     
  22. Kebekoi

    Kebekoi Registered User

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    You can't do NW and SW in the west due to the timezones.

    East:
    NorthEast : ET
    Atlantic : ET (CT?)

    West:
    Pacific : PT-MT
    Central : CT-ET
     
  23. optimus2861

    optimus2861 Registered User

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    It must be pointed out to Vancouver that moving to the Pacific to open up a spot for Winnipeg in the Northwest doesn't hurt the Canucks in terms of (in-conference) all-Canadian matchups. They still get 6 home dates against their western rivals, except instead of 3x EDM, 3x CAL, it becomes 2x EDM, 2x CAL, and 2x WPG. Edmonton and Calgary actually gain all-Canadian dates (going from 6 to 8), and Winnipeg will be happy regardless.

    No losers here.
     
  24. No Fun Shogun

    No Fun Shogun 34-38-61-10-13-15

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    New topic, new place for me to bring out my "path of least resistance" view on realignment:

    Winnipeg to the NW
    Minnesota to the Central
    Columbus to the SE

    No major rivalries upset, a struggling Columbus gets a boost, divisions still make sense geographically, more or less (all SE teams are to the SE of Detroit :naughty:), and the only teams that would really be against this would be Detroit and Dallas (maybe Nashville and Colorado, too).

    In other words, the NHL has 26-28 yes votes right off the bat. Seems like a no-brainer.
     
  25. This^
     
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