NHL Rankings

[tenorman85]

I've started an NHL Rankings portion on my blog.

http://evansrankings.blogspot.com/2013/10/national-hockey-league-10313.html

Rankings will be updated every Monday. I also post on nights after games, with updated scores and standings.

Obviously it's very early in the season but as the season goes on and more games are played then the numbers will be more concrete.

I also cover the Canadian Hockey League as well as Major League Soccer, the National Football League, NCAA Football and the CFL.

Click to read more...

 

[Bure All Day]

I suppose you don't want to give your secret formula away, but what does it represent? Does the team with the most points not necessarily have the highest ER?

 

[tenorman85]

I suppose you don't want to give your secret formula away, but what does it represent? Does the team with the most points not necessarily have the highest ER?

It's based on winning percentages of opponents, so yeah the team with the most points may not finish as the top team in my rankings.

 

[tenorman85]

Here is my NHL Post for Friday, October 4th: http://evansrankings.blogspot.com/2013/10/national-hockey-league-10413.html

 

[tenorman85]

Here is my NHL Post for Saturday, October 5th: http://evansrankings.blogspot.com/2013/10/national-hockey-league-10513.html

 

[tenorman85]

I'm not going to be releasing my first official NHL Rankings until next Monday, October 14th but here is a sneak preview of where things stand right now.

# Team (W-L-OTL, Evans Rankings #)
1 San Jose Sharks (2-0-0, 1.167)
2 Boston Bruins (2-0-0, 1.167)
3 Colorado Avalanche (2-0-0, 0.667)
4 Anaheim Ducks (2-1-0, 0.667)
5 Toronto Maple Leafs (3-0-0, 0.500)
6 St. Louis Blues (2-0-0, 0.500)
7 Detroit Red Wings (2-1-0, 0.500)
8 Calgary Flames (1-0-2, 0.500)
9 Florida Panthers (1-1-0, 0.500)
10 Chicago Blackhawks (1-0-1, 0.333)

Teams are ranked by their Evans Rankings # from high to low, followed by the tie-breaking procedure.
1) Points (High to Low)
2) Goals Against (Low to High)
3) Goals Scored (High to Low)
4) Wins (High to Low)

 

[sanitysrequiem]

If it's based on opposing team winning percentages, how can you have any relevant data only 3 games into the season? Or are you also factoring last year?

 

[tenorman85]

If it's based on opposing team winning percentages, how can you have any relevant data only 3 games into the season? Or are you also factoring last year?

I don't have any relevant data yet, which is why I don't post any "official" stuff until at least 2 weeks into the season. I wanted to post what things were looking like right now just because I felt like it and had some extra time to kill today.

My stuff does not and will not ever factor in past season's results. This season's Flyers are not last season's Flyers and so on and so forth. With all of the sports I cover, I try to get at least 2 to 3 weeks worth of games (3 or 4 games in football/soccer) before I put my backing behind any rankings that I will post.

 

[IME]

I'd at least wait until the 1st quarter mark. Anything before that is too small of a sample to be relevant.

 

[tenorman85]

I'd at least wait until the 1st quarter mark. Anything before that is too small of a sample to be relevant.

If I was trying to predict future outcomes, I'd agree but I feel like in 2 weeks or approximately 6 games, you can get enough data to at least get a start. Obviously sports are very fluid and the numbers will change as the season progresses, and that is why I have my system set up the way it is. If you beat a team who is struggling early in the season and later on they get hot, you will get rewarded for that when that time comes.

 

[tenorman85]

Here is my first NHL Top 10. (Full 30 team ranking ladder here: http://evansrankings.blogspot.com/2013/10/national-hockey-league-101313.html)

# Team (W-L-OTL, Evans Rankings #)
1 Colorado Avalanche (5-0-0, 2.983)
2 San Jose Sharks (5-0-0, 2.067)
3 Boston Bruins (3-1-0, 1.700)
4 St. Louis Blues (4-0-0, 1.533)
5 Toronto Maple Leafs (5-1-0, 1.367)
6 Anaheim Ducks (4-1-0, 1.300)
7 Calgary Flames (3-0-2, 1.100)
8 Phoenix Coyotes (4-2-0, 0.700)
9 Nashville Predators (2-3-0, 0.633)
10 Chicago Blackhawks (3-1-1, 0.600)

 

[danyhabsfan]

Here is my first NHL Top 10. (Full 30 team ranking ladder here: http://evansrankings.blogspot.com/2013/10/national-hockey-league-101313.html)

# Team (W-L-OTL, Evans Rankings #)
1 Colorado Avalanche (5-0-0, 2.983)
2 San Jose Sharks (5-0-0, 2.067)
3 Boston Bruins (3-1-0, 1.700)
4 St. Louis Blues (4-0-0, 1.533)
5 Toronto Maple Leafs (5-1-0, 1.367)
6 Anaheim Ducks (4-1-0, 1.300)
7 Calgary Flames (3-0-2, 1.100)
8 Phoenix Coyotes (4-2-0, 0.700)
9 Nashville Predators (2-3-0, 0.633)
10 Chicago Blackhawks (3-1-1, 0.600)

Nashville 9th?

 

[tenorman85]

Nashville 9th?

I currently have Nashville at 9 because their first 2 losses were to currently unbeaten teams (St. Louis and Colorado) and therefore has no effect on their product number. Once St. Louis and Colorado drop points then this will trickle down to affect Nashville. I'm not very happy putting them in 9th because I don't feel like they should be that high but that's what the numbers are giving me.

 

[Hurt]

Is this loosely based on QoC (quality of competition)?

 

[tenorman85]

Is this loosely based on QoC (quality of competition)?

I have honestly never heard of that stat. The idea for this way to rank clubs really started with College Football as the main sport used. Then I tried it with Major League Soccer and liked what I saw, so I decided to do it with the NHL and Major Juniors leagues as well.

 

[Hurt]

I have honestly never heard of that stat. The idea for this way to rank clubs really started with College Football as the main sport used. Then I tried it with Major League Soccer and liked what I saw, so I decided to do it with the NHL and Major Juniors leagues as well.

Gotcha. Thanks for sharing.

 

[tenorman85]

Thursday 10/17
Vancouver 3, Buffalo 0 (Final)
Carolina 3, Toronto 2 (Final)
NY Islanders 3, Edmonton 2 (Final)
Pittsburgh 4, Philadelphia 1 (Final)
Montreal 5, Columbus 3 (Final)
Ottawa 5, New Jersey 2 (Final)
Tampa Bay 3, Minnesota 1 (Final)
Boston 3, Florida 2 (Final)
St. Louis 3, Chicago 2 (Final/SO)
Los Angeles 2, Nashville 1 (Final/SO)
Dallas 4, San Jose 3 (Final/SO)
Detroit 4, Colorado 2 (Final)

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
1 San Jose Sharks (6-0-1, 3.417)
2 Colorado Avalanche (6-1-0, 3.214)
3 Anaheim Ducks (5-1-0, 1.923)
4 Detroit Red Wings (6-2-0, 1.706)
5 Boston Bruins (4-2-0, 1.655)
6 St. Louis Blues (5-1-0, 1.583)
7 Toronto Maple Leafs (6-2-0, 1.000)
8 Montreal Canadiens (5-2-0, 0.887)
9 Tampa Bay Lightning (5-2-0, 0.885)
10 Calgary Flames (3-1-2, 0.881)

 

[tenorman85]

Friday 10/18
Winnipeg 4, St. Louis 3 (SO)
Anaheim 3, Phoenix 2 (SO)

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
1 Colorado Avalanche (6-1-0, 3.238)
2 San Jose Sharks (6-0-1, 3.226)
3 Anaheim Ducks (6-1-0, 1.994)
4 Boston Bruins (4-2-0, 1.655)
5 Detroit Red Wings (6-2-0, 1.635)
6 St. Louis Blues (5-1-1, 1.583)
7 Toronto Maple Leafs (6-2-0, 1.000)
8 Montreal Canadiens (5-2-0, 0.958)
9 Calgary Flames (3-1-2, 0.905)
10 Tampa Bay Lightning (5-2-0, 0.885)

 

[tenorman85]

Saturday 10/19
Pittsburgh 4, Vancouver 3 (SO)
Edmonton 3, Ottawa 1
Colorado 4, Buffalo 2
Nashville 2, Montreal 1
Boston 5, Tampa Bay 0
Florida 2, Minnesota 1 (SO)
New Jersey 4, NY Rangers 0
Carolina 4, NY Islanders 3
Washington 4, Columbus 1
Chicago 3, Toronto 1
Phoenix 5, Detroit 2
San Jose 6, Calgary 3
Los Angeles 5, Dallas 2

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
1 San Jose Sharks (7-0-1, 3.470)
2 Colorado Avalanche (7-1-0, 3.308)
3 Boston Bruins (5-2-0, 2.077)
4 Anaheim Ducks (6-1-0, 1.798)
5 St. Louis Blues (5-1-1, 1.744)
6 Detroit Red Wings (6-3-0, 1.370)
7 Chicago Blackhawks (5-1-2, 1.231)
8 Phoenix Coyotes (5-2-2, 0.994)
9 Pittsburgh Penguins (7-1-0, 0.975)
10 Nashville Predators (4-3-1, 0.923)

Evans Rankings Nightly Bottom 5
26 New Jersey Devils (1-4-3, -1.980)
27 Columbus Blue Jackets (2-5-0, -2.090)
28 Philadelphia Flyers (1-7-0, -2.278)
29 Edmonton Oilers (2-6-1, -2.653)
30 Buffalo Sabres (1-8-1, -3.659)

 

[tenorman85]

Sunday 10/20
Columbus 3, Vancouver 1
Nashville 3, Winnipeg 1
Anaheim 6, Dallas 3

Monday 10/21
San Jose 1, Detroit 0 (SO)
Colorado 1, Pittsburgh 0
Calgary 3, Los Angeles 2

Tuesday 10/22
Toronto 4, Anaheim 2
Vancouver 5, NY Islanders 4 (OT)
Columbus 4, New Jersey 1
Edmonton 4, Montreal 1
Chicago 3, Florida 2 (SO)
Minnesota 2, Nashville 0
Washington 5, Winnipeg 4 (SO)
Phoenix 4, Calgary 2

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
1 Colorado Avalanche (8-1-0, 3.989)
2 San Jose Sharks (8-0-1, 3.510)
3 Boston Bruins (5-2-0, 2.083)
4 Anaheim Ducks (7-2-0, 1.869)
5 Toronto Maple Leafs (7-3-1, 1.769)
6 St. Louis Blues (5-1-1, 1.752)
7 Detroit Red Wings (6-3-1, 1.631)
8 Phoenix Coyotes (6-2-2, 1.322)
9 Chicago Blackhawks (6-1-2, 1.292)
10 Calgary Flames (4-3-2, 0.978)

Evans Rankings Nightly Bottom 5
26 Florida Panthers (3-6-1, -1.569)
27 Edmonton Oilers (3-6-1, -2.313)
28 Philadelphia Flyers (1-7-0, -2.477)
29 New Jersey Devils (1-5-3, -2.727)
30 Buffalo Sabres (1-8-1, -3.566)

 

[Wesleyy]

I don't mean to be condescending but there is really no point to these rankings if we don't know what we are looking at and how you arrived at these conclusions. For all we know you could be drawing these out of a hat.

 

[dr robbie]

I don't mean to be condescending but there is really no point to these rankings if we don't know what we are looking at and how you arrived at these conclusions. For all we know you could be drawing these out of a hat.

True, just don't get what we're looking at. For example:

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
2 Colorado Avalanche (7-1-0, 3.308)
3 Boston Bruins (5-2-0, 2.077)
4 Anaheim Ducks (6-1-0, 1.798)
5 St. Louis Blues (5-1-1, 1.744)
9 Pittsburgh Penguins (7-1-0, 0.975)

Why would Pittsburgh, with a 7-1 record be below these other teams with worse/same records as them?

 

[tenorman85]

I don't mean to be condescending but there is really no point to these rankings if we don't know what we are looking at and how you arrived at these conclusions. For all we know you could be drawing these out of a hat.

My Rankings calculation is based on strength of results to this point in the season. If you win a game in regulation or overtime then you are credited with the opponent's win percentage.

If you lose a game in regulation or overtime, then you are have the opponent's losing percentage taken away from your total.

You are not rewarded nor punished for a shootout result.

The percentage whether it be winning or losing is variable. So if you beat a bad team early in the season, and then they go on a winning streak, then your win over them will have more value as they get better over the course of the season. On the flip side, if you lose to a good team early in the year, then your rating won't get hurt too bad (inverse of winning % will be low) but if they go on an awful slump, then the strength of that loss will become more intense as their losing % increases.

True, just don't get what we're looking at. For example:

Evans Rankings Nightly Top 10
Rank Team (Record, Evans Rankings #)
2 Colorado Avalanche (7-1-0, 3.308)
3 Boston Bruins (5-2-0, 2.077)
4 Anaheim Ducks (6-1-0, 1.798)
5 St. Louis Blues (5-1-1, 1.744)
9 Pittsburgh Penguins (7-1-0, 0.975)

Why would Pittsburgh, with a 7-1 record be below these other teams with worse/same records as them?

Let's compare Chicago, Calgary & Pittsburgh before including any games that have taken place tonight (10/23):

When I calculate the win %, obviously a win is a win and a loss is a loss, so the records you will see in the following comparison are just W-L.

Chicago Blackhawks (7-2, 1.292) through 10/22
Date Opponent (Result, Opponent Record) +/- to ER #
10/1 Washington (W, 4-5) +0.444
10/5 Tampa Bay (L SO) 0.000 (no points deducted for a shootout loss)
10/9 St. Louis (L, 5-2) -0.286
10/11 NY Islanders (W, 3-6) +0.333
10/12 Buffalo (W, 1-9) +0.100
10/15 Carolina (W SO) 0.000 (no points added for a shootout win)
10/17 St. Louis (W SO) 0.000 (no points added for a shootout win)
10/19 Toronto (W, 7-3) +0.700
10/22 Florida (W SO) 0.000 (no points added for a shootout win)

The results are then added up on the Excel spreadsheet where they are listed and then you have their rating number, 1.292. Chicago should obviously have a higher rating but because 3 of their wins have come in shootouts, then they are out of luck for receiving any points for those games.

Calgary Flames (4-5, 0.978) through 10/22
Date Opponent (Result, Opponent Record) +/- to ER #
10/3 Washington (L SO) 0.000 (no points deducted for a shootout loss)
10/4 Columbus (W, 4-5) +0.444
10/6 Vancouver (L SO) 0.000 (no points deducted for a shootout loss)
10/9 Montreal (W, 5-4) +0.556
10/11 New Jersey (W, 1-8) +0.111
10/16 Anaheim (L, 7-2) -0.222
10/19 San Jose (L, 8-1) -0.111
10/21 Los Angeles (W, 6-4) +0.600
10/22 Phoenix (L, 6-4) -0.400

2 of the Flames 5 losses are shootouts, so those are zeros. Their other 3 losses are to 3 good teams, factor in 3 solid wins and 1 win over NJ and that's why they are rated as high as they are.

With Pittsburgh, they have just had terrible luck with their schedule so far. 7 wins, 1 shootout win (0.000), 3 wins over teams whose win % is less than .150. The Tampa win was a great one that was cancelled out by a loss to Florida. (Tampa Bay +0.625, Florida -0.700). They will get some luck coming up soon as they have Boston and Toronto in the coming week. They will also get some help with their rating if some of the bottom dwellers they've beaten so far can start winning.