NHL Projections 2021

[vanuck]

A lot of the assignments I made are completely arbitrary and I am more than willing to swap players around if we think they are going to get more or less ice time than I have them entered for. This was by far the most time-consuming and tedious part of this project! I had to go through all 31 teams and figure out how much ice time to give each player at ES, PP and PK. I would actually like to crowd-source this so I might build some kind of front end where people can vote on the correct usages. IDK.

That makes sense. I'd be surprised if someone like, say, Virtanen isn't consistently on PP2 after last season's performance but there's definitely room for debate. Will Beagle be the primary PK center or will it be Sutter? Or is Roussel a better option on the PK than Miller?

I think trying to figure out league-wide TOI usage for players would be a pretty fun exercise TBH.

 

[4Twenty]

I dont have the athletic, but apparently Dom's projections have them at 22nd. I'd be interested to see his, but yours are free!!!

 

[Melvin]

I dont have the athletic, but apparently Dom's projections have them at 22nd. I'd be interested to see his, but yours are free!!!

Yep, and, interestingly he also states that it's where he found the biggest divide between the model output and the staff rankings. He echos something that many of us have said here many times over the past 12 months:

Usually in these cases the answer is somewhere in the middle and Bubble Team feels a little more fair for a group with an electric young core, one that made a name for itself in the bubble by taking down the Blues and pushing the Golden Knights to a Game 7.
Again, the model doesn’t have knowledge of that because it doesn’t use playoff data, so it may be underrating Vancouver’s ability, but it’s also just as likely that the collective hockey world (this goes beyond the staff as they’re not the only ones very high on the Canucks) is overrating Vancouver’s playoff performance. It feels oddly reminiscent of the Oilers two-round run a few years back where the hockey world was again ready to anoint Edmonton as the next great power because of an elite young core – only to see the team crumble the following season.

As for the rest of it, his rankings have fewer surprises than mine. He has N.J as a bottom feeder, and Arizona outside the playoffs. I have both much higher. I also have DAL, CGY and CAR a fair bit higher while he has T.B, TOR and WSH higher.

 

[Melvin]

Here is where we (my numbers to-date and Athletic model output*) pretty much agree:

Top Tier: Pittsburgh, Boston, Vegas, Carolina, St. Louis
Middling: Columbus, Montreal, Islanders, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Florida
Bottom Tier: Chicago, San Jose, Ottawa, Los Angeles, Detroit, Vancouver

Big disagreements, my model favors: Arizona, New Jersey, Anaheim, Rangers
Big disagreements, Athletic model favors: Toronto**, Washington, Nashville

Minor disagreements, my model favors: Dallas, Florida, Calgary
Minor disagreements, Athletic model favors: Colorado, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Minnesota, Philadelphia

* Note that their article is a "Power Ranking" which includes both model output and staff rankings and sort of averages them out; I am ignoring the staff ranking and comparing model-to-model.

** What a shock.

I do wish Dom shared a bit more of the methodology so we could dive into the details where we differ. I suspect it's goaltending but not sure.

 

[BB06]

@Melvin Does your model predict players point projections?

 

[Melvin]

@Melvin Does your model predict players point projections?

I haven't applied it to points projections but I could do so pretty easily if people want. Sounds like there is some interest.

 

[VanJack]

Thomas Drance on TSN 1040 claims the Canuck roster is being built with the implied assumption the team will take a step backward in a COVID shortened season in 2021. By letting every UFA walk and failing to use a buyout window for Sutter, the team will be treading water if they're lucky.

The strategy is to force-feed a bunch of younger guys into the lineup and wait until the end of the season when the first wave of dismal veteran contacts come to a merciful conclusion. At that point they can add guys like Hoglander and Podkolzin in entry-level contracts. They then re-sign Hughes and Pettersson to bridge deals, and target the 2021-22 season as the one to make a move in the standings.

From ownerships' standpoint this might be understandable. No revenue from home games; Another season of possibly playing in bubble cities. And a team already 'capped out' which needs to shed salary based on the NHL's new fiscal reality.

 

[mriswith]

Basically, you can boil this down to:

"The Canucks from last year, if they continue their poor ES play, their elite PP regresses a bit, and they get below-average goaltending instead of elite goaltending." I don't think many would disagree with them being a ~25th rank team if that happens, so a lot of it comes down to how much you think each of those three things will happen.

Do you think scheduling effects from last season have any significant impact on rankings for this year?

Other teams probably didn't have as extreme schedules as we did but I was expecting our team to get murdered over the next month and a half when covid happened. Easy Oct/Nov schedule led to everyone on reddit crowning our team future cup champions over December/early January, and then the backslide started and Markstrom went down just as our schedule was about to become brutal.

But maybe a month and half of missed games doesn't change much in the overall picture for league wide rankings.

Thomas Drance on TSN 1040 claims the Canuck roster is being built with the implied assumption the team will take a step backward in a COVID shortened season in 2021. By letting every UFA walk and failing to use a buyout window for Sutter, the team will be treading water if they're lucky.

The strategy is to force-feed a bunch of younger guys into the lineup and wait until the end of the season when the first wave of dismal veteran contacts come to a merciful conclusion. At that point they can add guys like Hoglander and Podkolzin in entry-level contracts. They then re-sign Hughes and Pettersson to bridge deals, and target the 2021-22 season as the one to make a move in the standings.

From ownerships' standpoint this might be understandable. No revenue from home games; Another season of possibly playing in bubble cities. And a team already 'capped out' which needs to shed salary based on the NHL's new fiscal reality.

I'm really happy with this. There was no way to turn this team into a contender with the current contracts anyways, may as well increase our chances of a high pick this year and target peaking a little bit later.

I wonder if Luke Hughes being available this year had any influence on mgmt being willing to take a down year.

 

[Hansen]

Thomas Drance on TSN 1040 claims the Canuck roster is being built with the implied assumption the team will take a step backward in a COVID shortened season in 2021. By letting every UFA walk and failing to use a buyout window for Sutter, the team will be treading water if they're lucky.

The strategy is to force-feed a bunch of younger guys into the lineup and wait until the end of the season when the first wave of dismal veteran contacts come to a merciful conclusion. At that point they can add guys like Hoglander and Podkolzin in entry-level contracts. They then re-sign Hughes and Pettersson to bridge deals, and target the 2021-22 season as the one to make a move in the standings.

From ownerships' standpoint this might be understandable. No revenue from home games; Another season of possibly playing in bubble cities. And a team already 'capped out' which needs to shed salary based on the NHL's new fiscal reality.

Seems like an excellent way to crash the development of the assets who were going to step in after the contracts were up.

 

[elitepete]

I haven't applied it to points projections but I could do so pretty easily if people want. Sounds like there is some interest.

yes plz

 

[Fatass]

There will be four divisions, and teams will play regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs (thus determining the final four teams in Cup play) within those divisions.
The Canucks will be in a division with the other 6 Canadian teams. We will finish sixth - only ahead of Ottawa. We will get a top five pick in the 2021 draft. Benning/Brod and Green will all be replaced.

 

[Hammer79]

Thomas Drance on TSN 1040 claims the Canuck roster is being built with the implied assumption the team will take a step backward in a COVID shortened season in 2021. By letting every UFA walk and failing to use a buyout window for Sutter, the team will be treading water if they're lucky.

The strategy is to force-feed a bunch of younger guys into the lineup and wait until the end of the season when the first wave of dismal veteran contacts come to a merciful conclusion. At that point they can add guys like Hoglander and Podkolzin in entry-level contracts. They then re-sign Hughes and Pettersson to bridge deals, and target the 2021-22 season as the one to make a move in the standings.

From ownerships' standpoint this might be understandable. No revenue from home games; Another season of possibly playing in bubble cities. And a team already 'capped out' which needs to shed salary based on the NHL's new fiscal reality.

It would have been way too expensive to try and get out from a couple of these contracts to compete this year, there are UFA's out there still that could play and need contracts. This isn't really the year to go for it anyway; the whole point of spending extra money to build a contender is to get the ROI from butts in the seats for a playoff run. This is a year to toll contracts and get ready for 2021-2022. That said, I don't agree with projections on the first page that we will be in Detroit territory, that is just ridiculous. I can tell you though, if we had signed some of the contracts Calgary did, we would be there in a couple of years when those guys severely decline. Tanev and Markstrom both came off what will be the best years of their careers and are on the downslope.

 

[ChilliBilly]

This is not the year we should be aiming for. We have 2 of the best players in the league, but next year we add Hoglander, Tryamkin and Podkolzin, and get rid of a decent amount of sludge.Keep our powder dry, we should be a good team in 21 -22 and a contender in 22 -23. And tell Dim Jim no more UFA signings unless there is a steal out there. If we didn't have $20 M in sludge right now, we could contend this year.

Let EP and Hughes get a year older and stronger, and sign some FA's who just want to go to a contender.

 

[Reverend Mayhem]

There will be four divisions, and teams will play regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs (thus determining the final four teams in Cup play) within those divisions.
The Canucks will be in a division with the other 6 Canadian teams. We will finish sixth - only ahead of Ottawa. We will get a top five pick in the 2021 draft. Benning/Brod and Green will all be replaced.

Even if that is the outcome, I doubt we fire those guys. I think we'll push ahead of one of Winnipeg/Montreal, but that just leaves us in no man's land.

 

[StreetHawk]

There will be four divisions, and teams will play regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs (thus determining the final four teams in Cup play) within those divisions.
The Canucks will be in a division with the other 6 Canadian teams. We will finish sixth - only ahead of Ottawa. We will get a top five pick in the 2021 draft. Benning/Brod and Green will all be replaced.

Did any Canadian team separate from the pack?

jets, what have they done to upgrade their weaker D?
Oilers, still see flaws
Flames, still short a 1C. But a big upgrade in net.
Sens, still building
Canadiens, remains to be seen if Domi out and. Anderson in is a benefit.
Leafs, move their mid level RFA to create cap space. Do they have depth behind their big guns?
Canucks lost quality ufas.

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Did any Canadian team separate from the pack?

jets, what have they done to upgrade their weaker D?
Oilers, still see flaws
Flames, still short a 1C. But a big upgrade in net.
Sens, still building
Canadiens, remains to be seen if Domi out and. Anderson in is a benefit.
Leafs, move their mid level RFA to create cap space. Do they have depth behind their big guns?
Canucks lost quality ufas.

Except for the Senators...you can flip a coin for any of the Canadian teams..any could impress, any could disappoint...None are SC contenders.

 

[nowhereman]

I think many here will be unpleasantly surprised as to how well the Canucks will do this season, especially in a shortened season.

 

[4Twenty]

People want the team to do well. They also want it run well and have expectations for the people running the team.

I agree the short season favours the Canucks.

I have the same question marks as the projections in this thread: goaltending and 5 on 5 scoring.

I think the PP should be very good and penalty killing is a lot to do with goaltending so I worry a bit there.

The forward lineup still feels a bit hodgepodge and the bottom d pair looks suspect.

They have two bonafide stars that will dictate how well the team goes.

 

[VanJack]

This Canadian Division the Canucks are in will be murder. No easy games and intense rivalries with the likes of the Oilers, Flames and Jets.

It's far cry from the old Pacific Division, where you have three California teams in the throes of rebuilds. And then there's Arizona who seem to be trending backwards.

The Canucks could be 20 percent better and still fail to make the playoffs. The only saving grace will be the travel if the teams end up in a bubble city again. At least the Canucks won't lose because they left their best game on the plane or in the airport just to get there.

 

[Breakers]

This season could be wild with the amount of proposed back to backs.

like every season I just hope if we are out of it. That it happens well before the trade deadline.

 

[4Twenty]

Hey @Melvin

Have you seen the proposed division set ups for the season?

Does that effect your projections. I thought I heard Elliotte say they wanted 60 games.

Losing out on playing California is made up via Ottawa but that’s only one lotto team instead of 3.

 

[Melvin]

Hey @Melvin

Have you seen the proposed division set ups for the season?

Does that effect your projections. I thought I heard Elliotte say they wanted 60 games.

Losing out on playing California is made up via Ottawa but that’s only one lotto team instead of 3.

I hadn't seen that; thanks for letting me know.

Generally speaking it wouldn't affect anything as I was waiting for the official schedule to be released before factoring that in. Once we know the actual schedule I will use the overall numbers to run simulations based on the actual games we are expecting to be played.

I'll probably get back to this during the Thanksgiving weekend. Been busy.

 

[J Corso]

This is really sweet, I'm in awe.

One thought, can you test the math by backing it up one year? I mean, if you use data from 4, 3 and 2 years ago and put them in to your formulas to predict last year? Then you could compare the actual results we know now to your predictions.

 

[4Twenty]

You're quite clearly busy, as I haven't seen you post in months, but it would be interesting to see how the 56 game schedule and the division break down influences your projections. Would love to see it if you've had the time.

 

[Melvin]

You're quite clearly busy, as I haven't seen you post in months, but it would be interesting to see how the 56 game schedule and the division break down influences your projections. Would love to see it if you've had the time.

Yeah I'm gonna do updates tomorrow. I haven't been keeping up (didn't even know we signed Hamonic lol,) so I need to do roster updates and then plug the schedule into my simulator and run 10,000 simulations. It will be fun.

So far the Canucks look about as crap as I projected.