GDT: NHL 2024 Draft Lottery: Tuesday, May 7th, 6:30 pm | ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS, Fubo (live stream with free trial) (Habs pick 5th)

[Gravity]

MOD edit: Teams can move up maximum of 10 spots. It's a count down of all 16 teams that missed playoffs.

Current Draft Order:

16. St. Louis Blues
15. Detroit Red Wings
14. Pittsburgh Penguins (SJS own this pick due to Karlsson trade)
13. Minnesota Wild
12. Philadelphia Flyers
11. Buffalo Sabres
10. New Jersey Devils
9. Calgary Flames
8. Seattle Kraken
7. Ottawa Senators
6. Utah Hockey Club
5. Montreal Canadiens
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
3. Anaheim Ducks
2. Chicago Blackhawks
1. San Jose Sharks


Just excited about the Celebrini sweepstakes. T-minus 3 days until we find out!

I have this horrible gut feeling Chicago or Utah wins 1st Ov.

Click to read more...

 

[417]

5th place has won 3 times:

NYI (2000): Rick DiPietro
Chicago (2007): Patrick Kane
New Jersey (2017): Nico Hischier

#1 wins by far the most
#3 has won more than #2, though

Chicago won from #3 last year: Connor Bedard
New Jersey won from #3 in 2019: Jack Hughes
Edmonton won from #3 in 2015: Connor McDavid

#2 hasn't won in 10 years: Florida 2014: Aaron Ekblad, after #2 won 3 consecutive years (2012, 2013 & 2014).

Isn't the entire point of this lottery process to remove predictability and ignore historical results in favour of "controlled randomness"?

Does it really matter what has happened for teams picking 5th in the past under the current format?

 

[Captain Mountain]

I guess no rebuild is done, until the idea of what we can become is fully realized. My point is, that is what I would forge ahead with, should we win the lottery. If we don't win the lottery, we still have work.

They need work either way. The point is that right now, they still need to really hit a homerun in the draft to have a successful rebuild. Celebrini appears to be the caliber of prospect/player that will be homerun, because he's above average to great at pretty much everything. There

Like, I'd argue New Jersey's rebuild is done (even with their season from hell which was more on their refusal to address goaltending and injuries more than anything else). But there's a difference between building a projectable young core (which was IMO 2020-2021, with J. Hughes, Hischier, Zacha, Bratt, Woods, Sharangovich, Smith, Severson, Holtz, Mercer, and Mukhamadullin) and actually exiting the rebuild (which was 2022-2023). People judge rebuilds outside of their favourite team differently though, some may say NJ is still rebuilding because they missed the playoffs again.

 

[Habs Halifax]

5th place has won 3 times:

NYI (2000): Rick DiPietro
Chicago (2007): Patrick Kane
New Jersey (2017): Nico Hischier

#1 wins by far the most
#3 has won more than #2, though

Chicago won from #3 last year: Connor Bedard
New Jersey won from #3 in 2019: Jack Hughes
Edmonton won from #3 in 2015: Connor McDavid

#2 hasn't won in 10 years: Florida 2014: Aaron Ekblad, after #2 won 3 consecutive years (2012, 2013 & 2014).

McDavid was the last Canadian star to go to a Canadian team right? We are due for it to happen again.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Isn't the entire point of this lottery process to remove predictability and ignore historical results in favour of "controlled randomness"?

Does it really matter what has happened for teams picking 5th in the past under the current format?

Guy asked a question. I answered it, and added to it a bit. Read it as you will.

 

[Deebs]

Yup. Be prepared for.

6th pick (44%)
or
5th (24.5%)
or
1st or 2nd (17.1%)

I think it's ridiculous the spot we ended up, doesn't have the highest odds. There must be a a way of correcting that.

 

[417]

Guy asked a question. I answered it, and added to it a bit. Read it as you will.

Sorry lol that was a question, not a statement.

Reading it back now, it didn't come off as I intended it.

I'm not well versed on the lottery permutations and so forth.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

McDavid was the last Canadian star to go to a Canadian team right? We are due for it to happen again.

Well, Canadian teams actually aren't in this position all too often, so yes. US teams will win more often as there are more teams.

Edmonton has by far the most #1 OA picks (4)
Ottawa has 2 (first 2 years of existence)
Toronto got one (Matthews)
Montreal one (Slafkovsky)

Calgary, Vancouver & Winnipeg: none

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think it's ridiculous the spot we ended up, doesn't have the highest odds. There must be a a way of correcting that.

Only way to alter it is to prevent teams outside of the top 5 at winning the lottery. It's basically the addition of odds from all the teams behind us added up.

There is a fair chance one team from 6-11 leap frogs us into 6. Not much when you look at each teams odds but adds up when you look at them all from 6-11.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

Sorry lol that was a question, not a statement.

Reading it back now, it didn't come off as I intended it.

I'm not well versed on the lottery permutations and so forth.

It's definitely controlled. I wouldn't call it random. A bottom 3 team wins the vast majority of the time.

The lottery isn't really working as intended. Basically, they introduced it to control tanking. You aren't guaranteed #1 overall, so there's no need to tank, but reality is, the odds are still considerably in the bottom 3 teams favour that it's worth it to tank.

Besides, in majority of drafts, there's still a high quality player behind #1. The Tavares draft had Hedman as #2. The MacKinnon draft had Barkov at #2, Makar was taken #4 behind Hischier, etc.

Teams are definitely still tanking because you're still getting a high quality player in the top 1-3, or 1-5.

 

[morhilane]

And I'm going to miss it, unless it takes 2 hours to get the result.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Top end Dmen never make it to FA. Only mid no3-4 do and they get massively overpaid.

Getting a FA F is much easier as they hit the market more often and the promise to play with Bedard can be enticing.

For that reason Chicago will go D.

They rarely do, but Pietrangelo and Chara did, that’s not never but yeah it’s rare

 

[Kosseca]

It's definitely controlled. I wouldn't call it random. A bottom 3 team wins the vast majority of the time.

The lottery isn't really working as intended. Basically, they introduced it to control tanking. You aren't guaranteed #1 overall, so there's no need to tank, but reality is, the odds are still considerably in the bottom 3 teams favour that it's worth it to tank.

Besides, in majority of drafts, there's still a high quality player behind #1. The Tavares draft had Hedman as #2. The MacKinnon draft had Barkov at #2, Makar was taken #4 behind Hischier, etc.

Teams are definitely still tanking because you're still getting a high quality player in the top 1-3, or 1-5.

I would like if the changed the lottery. The way I see it is that on one hand, you want to make sure that team that are "bad" can build up again, but can't reward open tanking. Problem I see with the current system is that team that finish too far have a chance to get 1st OV... I cant stand that.... at the same time, the odds of the worst team still has the best odds...

What I would like to see is this:

2 lottery:

1st: teams that finished 32 to 28 (so last 5 in the standing). each get 20% odd. lottery set the ranking for ALL pick 1 to 5.

2nd: teams that finished 27-23 (so team with pre-draft rank 6-10). Each get 20% odd. lottery set the ranking for all pick 6 to 10.

 

[lamp9post]

Yes, but 2 teams behind Habs need to win both loterry. It's like a little miracle to me.

I'm surprised the odds of that happening are 14.2%. Seems higher than it should be, but those are the numbers.

 

[WeThreeKings]

 

[SwiftyHab]

And we have a trade to announce....

 

[waitin425]

I would like if the changed the lottery. The way I see it is that on one hand, you want to make sure that team that are "bad" can build up again, but can't reward open tanking. Problem I see with the current system is that team that finish too far have a chance to get 1st OV... I cant stand that.... at the same time, the odds of the worst team still has the best odds...

What I would like to see is this:

2 lottery:

1st: teams that finished 32 to 28 (so last 5 in the standing). each get 20% odd. lottery set the ranking for ALL pick 1 to 5.

2nd: teams that finished 27-23 (so team with pre-draft rank 6-10). Each get 20% odd. lottery set the ranking for all pick 6 to 10.

I like your tiered idea! But I still think position should be weighted.

1st - 35%
2nd - 25%
3rd - 17.5%
4th - 12.5%
5th - 10%

All teams can move from 1st to 5th in the scenario.

6th - 35%
7th - 25%
8th - 17.5%
9th - 12.5%
10th - 10%

Any of these teams can land 6-10.

11th - 32.5%
12th - 22.5%
13th - 17.5%
14th - 12.5%
15th - 10%
16th - 5%

Any team can land 11th-16th

 

[WeThreeKings]

Demidov at 2
Lindstrom at 5
Helenius 9
Iginla 10
Catton 11
Eiserman 13
Sennecke 14

To wit: Five scouts had Demidov as the No. 2 prospect behind Celebrini but five others — three for Levshunov and two for Silayev — saw it differently.

Six prospects got votes at No. 3 — Silayev (three); Demidov and Lidstrom (two each) and one apiece for Levshunov, Parekh and Helenius.

There were eight — eight! — prospects who got votes in the No. 4 slot — two each for Silayev and Lindstrom and one apiece for Demidov, Levshunov, Parekh, Dickinson, Buium and Yakemchuk.

And seven prospects garnered No. 5 votes — Levshunov (three); Lindstrom (two) and one apiece for Demidov, Dickinson, Sennecke and Yakemchuk.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And we have a trade to announce....

Celebrini and Anderson for B Tkachuk?

(joking)

 

[jaffy27]

Pick #7 is more likely than Pick #1, 2, or 3

View attachment 865726

And SAN Jose is more likely to pick 3rd, and Chicago is more likely to pick 4th, and Anaheim is more likely to pick 4th also, and Columbus is more likely to pick 5th.

Our chances of picking 1st is 5th best among the 16 teams participating….the chips will fall where they may

 

[morhilane]

And we have a trade to announce....

While it's kinda a joke. I could see one of the later lottery team (those between 10-16) trading their 1st for immediate help if they don't win the lottery.

 

[waitin425]

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.tsn.ca

 

[WeThreeKings]

Bob McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking: An 'unpredictable ride' after Macklin Celebrini | TSN

Ten out of 10 NHL club team scouts surveyed in the past week by TSN have Macklin Celebrini as the undisputed No. 1 draft prospect. Beyond Celebrini, though? Buckle up.

www.tsn.ca

Might be worst case scenario for us unless we stay at 5.

 

[Kaiden Ghoul]

Hope we win the first pick, we need a breathing dont want to engage in a war for either Demidov or Lindstrom for one month, or worst, speculating who wo will go top 4-5-6 before our pick

 

[waitin425]

Might be worst case scenario for us unless we stay at 5.

It's looking like a complete crap shoot beyond #1. We are going to have to trust our scouts at this point, whether we are #2 or #7. I won't feel good about this draft until the end of 2026 season.

 

[skidcells]

It's looking like a complete crap shoot beyond #1. We are going to have to trust our scouts at this point, whether we are #2 or #7. I won't feel good about this draft until the end of 2026 season.

Nah, Demidov is #2 prospect. Remove the Russia factor and it’s no contest. Kid has skill and is a gamer.