NHL in future (5-10 yrs from now)

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by vorky, Oct 11, 2013.

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  1. vorky

    vorky @vorkywh24

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    I have not found appropriate thread for my topic, so I decided to create this one. MOD can move it, if necessary.

    As we know KHL will progress and will spend cca 30-50M USD for player´s salaries within next decade. All clubs, not only one or two.

    1) NHL salary cap
    Will NHL´s salary cap increase within next 5-10 yrs? How? Double/triple of status quo (64M USD)? Or by a few %?

    2) NHL´s TV deals

    When does major NHL´s TV deals finish? Will new one brings more money for NHL?

    What are NHL´s TV ratings in US/CAN + regions (every club).
     
  2. wunderpanda

    wunderpanda Make Sabres Great Again

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    There was a salary cap thread a few months ago

    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1446979

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...t-sets-the-bar-under-new-cba/article12527371/

    The chart in the article shows a cap over $90millions in 20/21, but it doesn't include additional outdoor events, the world cup or expansion revenues.
     
  3. Riptide

    Riptide Registered User Sponsor

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    1. Figure on ~4m per year - as a conservative number. So in 5 years, cap is ~85m. ~105m in 10.

    2. I believe theres 8 years left on the US deal. No reason to suspect that the deal won't go up. How high, no clue... but again... I would suspect that it'll be in the 300-400m a yr range. Great for the NHL... but nothing compared to the other leagues.
     
  4. wunderpanda

    wunderpanda Make Sabres Great Again

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    US tv deal was $2 Billion, 10 years.. through 20/21 season

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nhl-seals-international-tv-mega-deal-2011-10-20

    In 2011, they signed international deal

    I have no idea how it works in Canada, several networks have games. Likewise, I'm unsure how the regional television deals work. I know teams have local broadcasts but not sure if the NHL gets a %.
     
  5. Riptide

    Riptide Registered User Sponsor

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    I'm pretty sure expansion revenues do not count towards the cap. It's out of scope, and the players receive nothing directly from it. And infact, expansion teams (depending on where they are) initially would likely be a drag on the cap in the sense that their revenue stream will take 4-6 years to come up to par with the rest of the NHLs - assuming those teams are not in Canada. If they are in Canada... I would expect that a QC expansion team (keeping in mind expansion draft, etc) would be equal to Columbus on the low end, and Winnipeg on the upper end (revenue wise). If it's a TO2/SO team... I'd expect it to be near the league average almost immediately, and only going up. In which case, a TO2/SO team would actually increase the rate the cap goes up.

    3.3b / 30 teams / 50% = 55m (mid point)
    3.5b / 31 teams / 50% = 56.4m
    3.7b / 32 teams / 50% = 57.8m
     
  6. Riptide

    Riptide Registered User Sponsor

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    Teams get the regional deals (as it's a deal between TV and the team - monies get reported with rest of revenue). NHL gets the national deal with CBC, TSN/RDS (Montreal gets part of the RDS monies), and whatever else is signed (there's talk of a Sunday broadcast with the new deal). This - like those you listed above, is a deal that CBC/TSN negotiates directly with the NHL.
     
  7. brec7

    brec7 Registered User

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    I would say in five years the NHL salary cap would have risen substantially... it's gone up in every normal season after the lockout, so there should be regular growth... and on top of that the new Canadian tv deal should see a big increase in revenue (and there's even the possibility of TWO new tv deals in Canada)... plus there's going to be expansion to at least two new markets which will probably be stronger than most in the league.
     
  8. Shawa666

    Shawa666 Registered User

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    I think the new Canadian national deals will end up being worth more p/a than the us deal.
     
  9. Wingsfan2965*

    Wingsfan2965* Registered User

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    Five years I'd expect the cap to be in the mid $80Ms. 10 years is too difficult to say. Too much that can happen. I think that you're going to find it'll start to top out with slight increase and there wont be a substantial increase until a new American TV contract is signed.

    Speaking of the TV deal, I think it'll be quite a bit larger next time around. More bidders (CBS and FOX now in the game) and an increase in viewership.
     
  10. OTP Legend*

    OTP Legend* Guest

    In 5-10 years, insurance for players will be out of control. Bubble Wrap signs a huge deal with the league that has all NHL players wrapped in their product for all games and practices.
     
  11. hockeystick89

    hockeystick89 Registered User

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    Two words: Hover Skates.
     
  12. tony d

    tony d Registered User Sponsor

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    The salary cap will be rose and we'll see expansion to 2 of Seattle, Portland and Kansas City.
     
  13. gstommylee

    gstommylee Registered User

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    KC is not going to happen. No owner or support for one or they would already have a team.
     
  14. joelef

    joelef Registered User

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    bettman is still commissior .
     
  15. hatterson

    hatterson Registered User

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    My predictions in 5-10 years would be a cap around $90-95 million per team.

    By that time we'll have expanded to 32 teams and either have the same divisional setup as now but with even 16 team conferences/8 team divisions, or go to an NFL style setup with 4 divisions in each conference each with 4 teams with the intent of ratcheting up location based rivalries.

    Prior to 2025, while I don't believe there will be teams outside of North America, I do believe there will be much more partnership with European hockey with the idea of having a European (including Western Russia) Conference in the NHL around or before 2030.
     
  16. hockeydude1

    hockeydude1 #CatsAreComing

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    The cap will continue to go up, 90-100mil, and NBC/NBC Sports is a huge deal with the NHL for US fans.
     
  17. cujoflutie

    cujoflutie Registered User

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    Interesting thread. There will be another CBA expiration by that time and if Bettman's still in charge, that pretty much guarantees another lockout.

    For the salary cap there's far too many variables in play to accurately project
    -potential relocations and expansions
    -the new CBA
    -on ice performance of the teams
    -how the international game plays out. Will there be more Olympics, NHL games?
     
  18. dougieg93

    dougieg93 Pray for Parayko

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    I think in 10 years, the macroeconomic situation within the states will result in a rather high inflationary environment. Those long term deals now from a player perspective will become ridiculously cheap.
     
  19. No Fun Shogun

    No Fun Shogun 34-38-61-10-13-15

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    I'm just more interested in the potential realignment should Seattle and Portland get expansion teams and the Yotes stay in the desert for the long haul. Might sound sacrilegious, but honestly would expect Colorado to be put back in the Pacific while Edmonton and Calgary would be put in the Central, as Phoenix spends half of the year on Pacific time so that's just be a mess to have the Central become a three-time zone division by simply putting the Yotes in there.
     
  20. gstommylee

    gstommylee Registered User

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    Colorado is more central than it is pacific. It makes zero sense to put colorado in pacific and Edmonton and Calgary in Central. Colorado is farther east than both Edm and Cal which is more even up with phx. Your not going to have perfect time zone alignments unless coyotes move to a more central city.

    I would think Vancouver would want more canadian teams in its division than have it be 7 american teams.
     
    Last edited: Oct 14, 2013

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