NHL in future (5-10 yrs from now)

[vorky]

I have not found appropriate thread for my topic, so I decided to create this one. MOD can move it, if necessary.

As we know KHL will progress and will spend cca 30-50M USD for player´s salaries within next decade. All clubs, not only one or two.

1) NHL salary cap
Will NHL´s salary cap increase within next 5-10 yrs? How? Double/triple of status quo (64M USD)? Or by a few %?

2) NHL´s TV deals
When does major NHL´s TV deals finish? Will new one brings more money for NHL?

What are NHL´s TV ratings in US/CAN + regions (every club).

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[wunderpanda]

There was a salary cap thread a few months ago

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1446979

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...t-sets-the-bar-under-new-cba/article12527371/

What we know for sure is that it will dip to $64.3-million for next season, the lowest it is able to go under the terms of the new CBA.

But commissioner Gary Bettman is bullish on future NHL revenues, projecting them to easily reach the mark from 2011-12, when they hit a record $3.3-billion in the last full season played.

“And hopefully beyond,†Bettman told media gathered at the Cup final on Wednesday. “I had an audit, finance and executive committee meeting on Monday, and we’ve told them that’s our view of the world.â€

By my estimates, hockey-related revenues will only have to reach $3.4-billion next season in order to have an upward effect on the cap, a 3-per-cent revenue bump that shouldn’t be hard to attain.

Heck, they might sell $100-million more in popcorn at the half dozen outdoor games they’ve scheduled.

From there, however, continued growth will push the cap up more dramatically, with $80-million a very reasonable target by 2018....
...
As long as NHL revenues keep going up, star players’ salaries will, too. What they may not do is heavily undercut the middle class, however, as there very well could be more cap room for all down the road.

Where the cap will go

If, as the league expects, next season’s revenues exceed 2011-12’s even by a modest amount, the salary cap will rise slightly from $64.3-million. But if revenues increase at 5 per cent a season after that, the cap will shift upwards at a fairly rapid pace of $3- or $4-million annually.

The chart in the article shows a cap over $90millions in 20/21, but it doesn't include additional outdoor events, the world cup or expansion revenues.

 

[Riptide]

I have not found appropriate thread for my topic, so I decided to create this one. MOD can move it, if necessary.

As we know KHL will progress and will spend cca 30-50M USD for player´s salaries within next decade. All clubs, not only one or two.

1) NHL salary cap
Will NHL´s salary cap increase within next 5-10 yrs? How? Double/triple of status quo (64M USD)? Or by a few %?

2) NHL´s TV deals
When does major NHL´s TV deals finish? Will new one brings more money for NHL?

What are NHL´s TV ratings in US/CAN + regions (every club).

1. Figure on ~4m per year - as a conservative number. So in 5 years, cap is ~85m. ~105m in 10.

2. I believe theres 8 years left on the US deal. No reason to suspect that the deal won't go up. How high, no clue... but again... I would suspect that it'll be in the 300-400m a yr range. Great for the NHL... but nothing compared to the other leagues.

 

[wunderpanda]

US tv deal was $2 Billion, 10 years.. through 20/21 season

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nhl-seals-international-tv-mega-deal-2011-10-20

In 2011, they signed international deal

The NHL’s five-year pact with broadcaster Modern Times Group is valued at more than $50 million and includes Sweden, Finland, Norway and Denmark. The agreement marks a big step in the league’s efforts to increase its international exposure, particularly in Europe.

The deal is the largest of several the NHL has struck in recent weeks, as it negotiates its international rights. The league has also sealed deals in France, the U.K., Spain and the Czech-Slovak market. The league also cut deals in Africa and the Middle East.

I have no idea how it works in Canada, several networks have games. Likewise, I'm unsure how the regional television deals work. I know teams have local broadcasts but not sure if the NHL gets a %.

 

[Riptide]

There was a salary cap thread a few months ago

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1446979

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/spor...t-sets-the-bar-under-new-cba/article12527371/



The chart in the article shows a cap over $90millions in 20/21, but it doesn't include additional outdoor events, the world cup or expansion revenues.

I'm pretty sure expansion revenues do not count towards the cap. It's out of scope, and the players receive nothing directly from it. And infact, expansion teams (depending on where they are) initially would likely be a drag on the cap in the sense that their revenue stream will take 4-6 years to come up to par with the rest of the NHLs - assuming those teams are not in Canada. If they are in Canada... I would expect that a QC expansion team (keeping in mind expansion draft, etc) would be equal to Columbus on the low end, and Winnipeg on the upper end (revenue wise). If it's a TO2/SO team... I'd expect it to be near the league average almost immediately, and only going up. In which case, a TO2/SO team would actually increase the rate the cap goes up.

3.3b / 30 teams / 50% = 55m (mid point)
3.5b / 31 teams / 50% = 56.4m
3.7b / 32 teams / 50% = 57.8m

 

[Riptide]

I have no idea how it works in Canada, several networks have games. Likewise, I'm unsure how the regional television deals work. I know teams have local broadcasts but not sure if the NHL gets a %.

Teams get the regional deals (as it's a deal between TV and the team - monies get reported with rest of revenue). NHL gets the national deal with CBC, TSN/RDS (Montreal gets part of the RDS monies), and whatever else is signed (there's talk of a Sunday broadcast with the new deal). This - like those you listed above, is a deal that CBC/TSN negotiates directly with the NHL.

 

[brec7]

I would say in five years the NHL salary cap would have risen substantially... it's gone up in every normal season after the lockout, so there should be regular growth... and on top of that the new Canadian tv deal should see a big increase in revenue (and there's even the possibility of TWO new tv deals in Canada)... plus there's going to be expansion to at least two new markets which will probably be stronger than most in the league.

 

[Shawa666]

I would say in five years the NHL salary cap would have risen substantially... it's gone up in every normal season after the lockout, so there should be regular growth... and on top of that the new Canadian tv deal should see a big increase in revenue (and there's even the possibility of TWO new tv deals in Canada)... plus there's going to be expansion to at least two new markets which will probably be stronger than most in the league.

I think the new Canadian national deals will end up being worth more p/a than the us deal.

 

[Wingsfan2965*]

Five years I'd expect the cap to be in the mid $80Ms. 10 years is too difficult to say. Too much that can happen. I think that you're going to find it'll start to top out with slight increase and there wont be a substantial increase until a new American TV contract is signed.

Speaking of the TV deal, I think it'll be quite a bit larger next time around. More bidders (CBS and FOX now in the game) and an increase in viewership.

 

[OTP Legend*]

In 5-10 years, insurance for players will be out of control. Bubble Wrap signs a huge deal with the league that has all NHL players wrapped in their product for all games and practices.

 

[hockeystick89]

Two words: Hover Skates.

 

[tony d]

The salary cap will be rose and we'll see expansion to 2 of Seattle, Portland and Kansas City.

 

[gstommylee]

The salary cap will be rose and we'll see expansion to 2 of Seattle, Portland and Kansas City.

KC is not going to happen. No owner or support for one or they would already have a team.

 

[joelef]

bettman is still commissior .

 

[hatterson]

My predictions in 5-10 years would be a cap around $90-95 million per team.

By that time we'll have expanded to 32 teams and either have the same divisional setup as now but with even 16 team conferences/8 team divisions, or go to an NFL style setup with 4 divisions in each conference each with 4 teams with the intent of ratcheting up location based rivalries.

Prior to 2025, while I don't believe there will be teams outside of North America, I do believe there will be much more partnership with European hockey with the idea of having a European (including Western Russia) Conference in the NHL around or before 2030.

 

[hockeydude1]

The cap will continue to go up, 90-100mil, and NBC/NBC Sports is a huge deal with the NHL for US fans.

 

[cujoflutie]

Interesting thread. There will be another CBA expiration by that time and if Bettman's still in charge, that pretty much guarantees another lockout.

For the salary cap there's far too many variables in play to accurately project
-potential relocations and expansions
-the new CBA
-on ice performance of the teams
-how the international game plays out. Will there be more Olympics, NHL games?

 

[dougieg93]

I think in 10 years, the macroeconomic situation within the states will result in a rather high inflationary environment. Those long term deals now from a player perspective will become ridiculously cheap.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I'm just more interested in the potential realignment should Seattle and Portland get expansion teams and the Yotes stay in the desert for the long haul. Might sound sacrilegious, but honestly would expect Colorado to be put back in the Pacific while Edmonton and Calgary would be put in the Central, as Phoenix spends half of the year on Pacific time so that's just be a mess to have the Central become a three-time zone division by simply putting the Yotes in there.

 

[gstommylee]

I'm just more interested in the potential realignment should Seattle and Portland get expansion teams and the Yotes stay in the desert for the long haul. Might sound sacrilegious, but honestly would expect Colorado to be put back in the Pacific while Edmonton and Calgary would be put in the Central, as Phoenix spends half of the year on Pacific time so that's just be a mess to have the Central become a three-time zone division by simply putting the Yotes in there.

Colorado is more central than it is pacific. It makes zero sense to put colorado in pacific and Edmonton and Calgary in Central. Colorado is farther east than both Edm and Cal which is more even up with phx. Your not going to have perfect time zone alignments unless coyotes move to a more central city.

I would think Vancouver would want more canadian teams in its division than have it be 7 american teams.