NHL in 2025 (mod: more Canadian teams, fewer US sunbelt teams)

[saskganesh]

With that oil boom happening in Saskatchewan, it is entirely possible a city there will boom. Williston, ND across the border has doubled its population over the last year.

Weyburn and Estevan could double, but Saskatoon wouldn't. It's much easier for small cities to grow quickly. And even on that scale those kind of harsh increases means the infrastructure can't keep up, housing shortages appear, rents skyrocket and overall quality of life plummets.

But maybe we'll see new WHL markets, with the Estevan Bruins and Weyburn Red Wings moving up a tier. There would be some great rivalries with the Pats and Warriors, and to a lesser extent, the Blades, Broncos and Raiders. Even more junior development in SK would be great for hockey globally, while an NHL team in the flatlands would compete with all that to everyone's ultimate detriment.

 

[Fehr Time*]

Weyburn and Estevan could double, but Saskatoon wouldn't. It's much easier for small cities to grow quickly. And even on that scale those kind of harsh increases means the infrastructure can't keep up, housing shortages appear, rents skyrocket and overall quality of life plummets.

But maybe we'll see new WHL markets, with the Estevan Bruins and Weyburn Red Wings moving up a tier. There would be some great rivalries with the Pats and Warriors, and to a lesser extent, the Blades, Broncos and Raiders. Even more junior development in SK would be great for hockey globally, while an NHL team in the flatlands would compete with all that to everyone's ultimate detriment.

Yeah that's a good point. In Saskatoon the Blades have been a long time fixture with their owner Brodsky (sp). An NHL or even AHL team would be the end of that. More teams in the dub would be more realistic though for sure.

 

[Wheathead]

Saskatoon is growing at a rate that is similar to what Calgary grew at when they had their population boom. Saskatoon was smaller than Calgary when it started, though.

I don't know if I could ever see Saskatoon getting a team. I know it was talked about in the early 80s with Bill Hunter, but even back then it was an unpopular destination. The thing about Saskatoon, and I should know because I'm from there, is that it's more of a "big event" city than an every day sports city. Events like the World Juniors will be well supported, but the Blades are only supported when they're winning (I've kind of thought that when the Blades are below .500 they should slash the price of beer in half to get people in the games)

In 2025, the landscape of Saskatoon may have changed immensely though. But even then, in 14 years Saskatoon will still be short of 500,000 people (probably closer to 325,000... maybe) and I can't see any league placing a franchise in a market that small. It may work for a short period of time, but that's it.

The Credit Union Centre would need to be replaced, anyways. Sure it seats 15,000 people, but it's crappy for a professional franchise. The concourses are too small for the capacity and getting out of that parking lot is like a demolition derby.

The one thing that a Saskatoon team would have going for it is that it would be supported province wide, much like the Roughriders. But the NHL would be wise to try a long list of other markets before being desperate enough to plop another team in the prairies.

 

[MoreOrr]

Calgary had a population of 568,000 when it had the fortune of getting the relocated Flames. No Canadian city today is going to get an NHL team with less than an absolute minimum 750,000 people, and by 2025 that minimum will be at least 1 million. What Saskatchewan city is going to have that population? And even still, that's an absolute minimum, and there will surely be other larger (likely US) options that the League will have more interest in.

Unless the NHL eventually downsizes to become the CHL.

 

[Nuclear SUV]

Weyburn and Estevan could double, but Saskatoon wouldn't. It's much easier for small cities to grow quickly. And even on that scale those kind of harsh increases means the infrastructure can't keep up, housing shortages appear, rents skyrocket and overall quality of life plummets.

The larger cities benefit too. Certain goods and services are only available in larger centers, and as the population in the periphery grows, so does activity within the major urban centers. Housing shortages and infrastructure shortages means more jobs and more help needed from the large local centers.


I'd think Regina is more likely to benefit from the Bakken oil boom than Saskatoon, but Saskatoon could develop into an administrative center if the provincial govt. is willing to play ball. With the potential oil revenues, I'd slash taxes to increase economic growth there.

 

[Killion]

Calgary had a population of 568,000 when it had the fortune of getting the relocated Flames. No Canadian city today is going to get an NHL team with less than an absolute minimum 750,000 people, and by 2025 that minimum will be at least 1 million. What Saskatchewan city is going to have that population? And even still, that's an absolute minimum, and there will surely be other larger (likely US) options that the League will have more interest in.

Isnt the population of Winnipeg app. 625K, QC app. 800K & Hamilton about 500K within their respective city limits proper?. Obviously one has to include surrounding populations, relatively easy commutes. Beyond the "boutique" nature of both Winnipeg & QC, Hamiltons' really the only other viable location, as Im certainly no supporter of a 2nd team being dropped into the GTA, Vancouver or Montreal. Maybe in 50yrs, but certainly not by 2025.

It just strikes me as to be so completely fantastical that I really do have to wonder what color the sky is in the author of these reports Worlds. Either Saskatoon or Regina or possibly a combination of both are I believe the fastest growing municipalities in Canada, however, a lot of its recent immigrants from places that have never even heard of hockey. Toronto's, Vancouvers & Montreals' explosive growth is much the same story over the past 10-20-30yrs. Sure hockeys "taking" in a lot of these communities, but still...

 

[dronald]

Isnt the population of Winnipeg app. 625K, QC app. 800K & Hamilton about 500K within their respective city limits proper?. Obviously one has to include surrounding populations, relatively easy commutes. Beyond the "boutique" nature of both Winnipeg & QC, Hamiltons' really the only other viable location, as Im certainly no supporter of a 2nd team being dropped into the GTA, Vancouver or Montreal. Maybe in 50yrs, but certainly not by 2025.

It just strikes me as to be so completely fantastical that I really do have to wonder what color the sky is in the author of these reports Worlds. Either Saskatoon or Regina or possibly a combination of both are I believe the fastest growing municipalities in Canada, however, a lot of its recent immigrants from places that have never even heard of hockey. Toronto's, Vancouvers & Montreals' explosive growth is much the same story over the past 10-20-30yrs. Sure hockeys "taking" in a lot of these communities, but still...

QC will get a team for sure imo, and Hamilton has a chance. After that there's nothing but perhaps SSK in twenty years when they have a good population and those Roughrider fans start tailgating because they're insane.

 

[jessebelanger]

Quebec, another team in SO - legitimate possibilities.

This other talk - Saskatoon, another team in Vancouver, Halifax... just foolishness. Do these people expect to be taken seriously?

 

[MoreOrr]

Isnt the population of Winnipeg app. 625K, QC app. 800K & Hamilton about 500K within their respective city limits proper?. Obviously one has to include surrounding populations, relatively easy commutes. Beyond the "boutique" nature of both Winnipeg & QC, Hamiltons' really the only other viable location, as Im certainly no supporter of a 2nd team being dropped into the GTA, Vancouver or Montreal. Maybe in 50yrs, but certainly not by 2025.

Well, here's more precisely what I was intending to compare:
Calgary metro population (1981): 593,000 (est)
Winnipeg metro population (2011): 764,000 (est)

And again, that's what NHL population expectations/requirements were back then compared to now, and then thinking ahead to 2025.

As for Quebec City and Hamilton, neither have an NHL team. But (2010) metro pop Hamilton: 740,000, Quebec City: 754,000.

 

[Mayor Bee]

The NHL is gaining that many Canadian teams?

I didn't know a military invasion from the north was imminent.

 

[Killion]

(2010) metro pop Hamilton: 740,000, Quebec City: 754,000.

Thanks for the clarification... Obviously the Canadian markets are unique enough to be more than viable, but again, getting back to the report, beyond these 2 markets I just dont see it...

 

[CanadianHockey]

The only one of these predictions I think is likely to happen is Phoenix to Quebec City.

Florida and Nashville are potential candidates, but I don't think you can definitely say they won't stay. From what I've read, the Panthers ownership are happy developing the land they have around and including the arena. The Preds might actually gain a little from Atlanta's relocation and their recent playoff success.

The relocation I absolutely do not see happening is the Isles leaving New York. The author doesn't even have them testing Queens or Brooklyn, just bolting right to Toronto.

As for the suggested destinations:
Re. Vancouver, Toronto: I think the author is a little too optimistic about franchises wanting to share venues and cities. His example of "it works" is the Raptors and the Maple Leafs, which kind of neglects that those two teams aren't actually in the same league or even the same sport. I don't see him mention territorial fees, either - just that there are teams sharing a market in NY and California. The 2nd Toronto team would have to spend money buying the Isles and then pay territorial fees to the new team in Kitchener Waterloo, to the Maple Leafs, and the Sabres... and then they'd still have to share an arena - seems like a non-starter.

Re. Kitchener-Waterloo: It'll take a lot for Balsillie to legitimize himself in time for a franchise to relocate there by 2013. I also don't get why the author neglects that there's no venue in the market and likely wouldn't be one in time for 2013. I think that due to proximity with Hamilton/GTA they could support a team, though.

Re. Quebec City: No argument. Arena looks like a go, fans have demonstrated their support.

My only other criticism would be that some US cities like Kansas City are all ready to support a team: they have an arena and would avoid the hefty territorial fees associated with moving a team to Toronto/Vancouver/Montreal. I also think that other US cities could build arenas that would make the viable markets, especially Seattle where they could draw fans from nearby Vancouver without sharing the city/venue.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

My exact reaction to reading that article:



But seriously, a dozen+ teams in Canada? Are those guys freaking nuts?

I think Canada will have 8 teams in 2025 with the addition of Quebec City. Best case scenario (for Canadians) would be 8 as at most there would be one more Ontario team and that's it, and even I'd say that that's unlikely.

 

[drive45]

9, tops

after QC and the Golden Horseshoe, we can hang the "no vacancy sign" on Canada. Although I do think that with the US debt problems it is likely that the Can$ will not reach lows like the 90's in the forseeable future.

 

[MAROONSRoad]

It depends how you look at it. 12 teams today in Canada might be similar to having 24 teams teams in the USA last season, where there are a lot of shaky markets - PHX, ATL, NYI, CBJs, etc.

However, by 2025 anything is possible. It's not really that crazy. The biggest obstacle is that Canadian governments generally don't like to pay 100s of millions for professional sports venues. That's the huge difference (and the currency issue) between the two countries.

Having said that, it's not that difficult to imagine 12 NHL teams in Canada in 15 years. Once QC is added you've got 8. So where do you add the final 4 teams:

9) GTA - i.e, greater Toronto. The greater area could likely support 2 or 3 more teams. It would be similar to how London has many football clubs. You'd have teams representing different traditional cities within the GTA. Whether the Leafs or NHL would ever allow it is a different issue. For that reason, let's say only 1 additional team is allowed in the next 15 years.

10) Hamilton, ON.

That's 10. We only need 2 more now and we've got 14 years of growth to take into consideration. So look at some fast growing cities.

11) Kitchener-Waterloo, ON.

12) London, ON.

13) Victoria, BC.

And I haven't even mentioned second teams in Vancouver or Montreal or the less likely places like Saskatoon or Halifax.

So 12 is unlikely but it's not exactly crazy to think about it. Crazy would have been to imagine back in the 70s NHL teams in places like Nashville, Raleigh and Sunrise.

 

[His Beardliness*]

By 2025 the NHL has packed up and relocated to europe.

 

[Ogopogo*]

There is room for two more teams in Canada - Quebec City and Southern Ontario. That is it. Canada maxes out at 9 teams and the two that will likely be coming to Canada are the Coyotes and Panthers.

Anyone who thinks there could be teams in Victoria, Saskatoon or Regina is crazy. Anyone that thinks Vancouver could support a second team is crazy as well.

 

[drive45]

NHL Euro Division

By 2025 the NHL has packed up and relocated to europe.

Not the whole league, no, but I do think that Stokholm, Helsinki, Prague, St Petersburg and Moscow have better chances of getting NHL franchises than Kitchener, Waterloo, London, or Victoria.

 

[bigdom1012]

remind me when i go see my family in toronto to find the guy who wrote this article and smack him twice for moving my islanders to toronto lolll

y would you move a team to the hockey mecca in toronto and play them in the same arena??? is this guy on drugs lol does he really think fans will convert to this new team, when they have a legendary team such as the maple leafs??? so stupid

one thing i hope for is that quebec gets a team very soon, they came here to long island last season and they were an awesome fanbase cheering on our losing team it was great having them there...very respectfull bunch i hope they come again this year!!

 

[MAROONSRoad]

There is room for two more teams in Canada - Quebec City and Southern Ontario. That is it. Canada maxes out at 9 teams and the two that will likely be coming to Canada are the Coyotes and Panthers.

Anyone who thinks there could be teams in Victoria, Saskatoon or Regina is crazy. Anyone that thinks Vancouver could support a second team is crazy as well.

Southern Ontario could support more than 1 additional team. It could easily support 3 or 4 imo. Anyone that thinks differently is crazy. There are 12 millions Canadians living in that area, many of which are hockey fans. I'll give 1 team per 3 or 4 million Canadians in that area.

Any idea what the population of Vancouver Island is? I tell you -- it is just under 800,000. It should be about 1 million in the time frame discussed (2025). The vast majority of the population lives in the 100 km area stretching from Victoria to Nanaimo. In other words, the area has a similar population to Edmonton.

As I said, it is not likely that Canada will get 12 teams and that is for a variety of different factors which I'm not going to bother pointing out. However, if there was a will to do it, I believe 12 teams would be easy, especially if we are talking 14 years to do it.

 

[Bjorn Le]

Not the whole league, no, but I do think that Stokholm, Helsinki, Prague, St Petersburg and Moscow have better chances of getting NHL franchises than Kitchener, Waterloo, London, or Victoria.

No they don't. That's a ridiculously absurd thing to say. Victoria will need to get a lot more infastructure to take it, but if Kitchener-Waterloo/London had NHL sized arenas, chances are we'd here more talks about teams in those cities then Hamilton.

 

[MoreOrr]

It depends how you look at it. 12 teams today in Canada might be similar to having 24 teams teams in the USA last season, where there are a lot of shaky markets - PHX, ATL, NYI, CBJs, etc.

However, by 2025 anything is possible.

2025 isn't that far away. For those of us who've been around a while, 14 years ago seems like almost nothing.

 

[Killion]

Not the whole league, no, but I do think that Stockholm, Helsinki, Prague, St. Petersburg and Moscow have better chances of getting NHL franchises than Kitchener, Waterloo, London, or Victoria.

I agree, but then again, I dont see the NHL ever expanding to Europe...

No they don't. That's a ridiculously absurd thing to say. Victoria will need to get a lot more infrastructure to take it, but if Kitchener-Waterloo/London had NHL sized arenas, chances are we'd here more talks about teams in those cities then Hamilton.

Dont think so. Hamilton is far better placed geographically, has an airport, convenient to Mississauga/Burlington and K/W-Guelph.

 

[Retail1LO*]

With territorial rights and what not, I simply can't imagine another team in the Toronto area, much less several. Same for Vancouver and Montreal. The amount of money a prospective owner will have to pay as each team enters the same market, would be beyond staggering.

 

[New User Name]

Hamilton/Kitchener/London area
Second team in Toronto.
Possibly a team north (Markam/Unionville or east (Pickering to Oshawa)
Quebec City.

I don't think anywhere else in Canada today could support a NHL team.