GDT: NHL Free Agency Meeting period

ricky0034

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Jun 8, 2010
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If memory serves filing for arbitration is more about the deadline to file paperwork more than an indication of anything about re-signing.

Like you have to file the paperwork by a certain date to ever have the option of arbitration if things get to that point, so might as well do it.

today was the deadline for it yeah

doesn't really say a ton one way or another at this point but as kliq said not filing certainly would say something
 

NickH8

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Come on Jacob! We know you want to play for your home team. We all saw you wearing that Tigers hat while talking about your future with the Jets.
 

Claypool

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Jan 12, 2009
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If he gets a 1 year deal through arb how soon can he sign a contract extension with NY?

If Trouba goes through arbitration and is given the one-year deal, the Rangers cannot formally begin contract negotiations until Jan. 1, 2020.

Most teams settle with the player before the hearing date, however Trouba has a history of electing to go through arbitration, so it'll be interesting to see what happens.
 
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Ghost of Ethan Hunt

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Many NHL players with ~7 yrs in the league have made enough to retire & live like very well for the rest of their lives (especially relative to the working class). I mentioned in another thread that Trouba may be buying time to leverage the UFA offers on 7-1-2020. From Capfriendly: Estimated Career Earnings
q.svg
: $14,401,206. (gross). So he's made ~$8M NET.

He strikes me as the kind of player that wants to test the market, despite being "good buddies" with Brady Skjei.
 

The Zetterberg Era

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Many NHL players with ~7 yrs in the league have made enough to retire & live like very well for the rest of their lives (especially relative to the working class). I mentioned in another thread that Trouba may be buying time to leverage the UFA offers on 7-1-2020. From Capfriendly: Estimated Career Earnings
q.svg
: $14,401,206. (gross). So he's made ~$8M NET.

He strikes me as the kind of player that wants to test the market, despite being "good buddies" with Brady Skjei.

He should get 7.5 or 8 in arbitration this year as well.
 

Winger98

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I think he goes the arby route, betting on putting up big numbers as the #1 there, and looking to start negotiations in January at a number well north of $8m. What he risks is some long term stability, but even if he doesn't impress this year does anyone realistically see him getting less than $8m on the open market next summer? Roll the dice at this point, and see if you can cash in.
 

deca guard

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could trouba buy insurance that if he signs a 1 year contract then gets injured he'd be insured for the estimated amount of contract he could have signed on an 8 year deal ?
 

Mlotek

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He should get 7.5 or 8 in arbitration this year as well.
I'd be surprised its that high.

Barring this past season his production would be 5.5-6.5 million range. This past season seems a high statistical anomaly.

It really depends how well each side makes the case to an arbitrator.

If they use guys like OEL as a comparable thats around 8 million, but there are too many guys closer to 6 for his production.

If they use a guy like Myers as the comparable its closer to 6 million.

I mean in terms of offensive output Myers (0.417 ppg) and Trouba (0.438 ppg) are essentially at the same pace.

Their TOI is approximately the same as well Myers at 22:20 and Trouba at 22:50.

Yes Myers is going off a comparably worse year, but overall by the numbers, its the same player. Which is what I think would be argued as his comparable in arbitration by the club.

I wouldn't be surprised with a 6.5 million award, and maybe 7 as a stretch if the club butchers their case.
 

Bench

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could trouba buy insurance that if he signs a 1 year contract then gets injured he'd be insured for the estimated amount of contract he could have signed on an 8 year deal ?

Insurance like that would be insanely expensive, even if you found someone willing to take that on.
 

obey86

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Insurance like that would be insanely expensive, even if you found someone willing to take that on.

Future NFL draftees have regularly gotten this type of insurance in case they get injured and aren’t drafted or aren’t drafted as high as projected due to an injury.

Butt had a lack of fear because he had taken out a loss-of-value insurance policy to protect against this very situation. Butt was part of a growing trend in college football that top NFL draft prospects and college programs are taking advantage of, hoping to keep the players on the field without worry of injury and potentially in school for an extra season.

It's a trend that is all the more relevant after the opening weekend of the 2017 season. Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois was lost for the season with a patella injury and Georgia's Jacob Eason is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

This type of insurance is nothing new, the task of an athlete finding out just what his body is worth, and insurers assigning policies can both be daunting.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20592832/how-college-football-players-get-insurance

In contrast, LOV coverage insures the difference between the anticipated value of the athlete’s first contract (for college players) or his/her next contract (for professional athletes), and the reduced value of the contract the athlete actually signs following a material injury that occurred during the policy period. Loss-of-value coverage kicks in when the injury was the sole and direct cause of the drop in contract value.

Understanding Loss-of-Value Insurance: An Interview with Richard Giller (Part 1) - CollegeAD
 
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Bench

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Future NFL draftees have regularly gotten this type of insurance in case they get injured and aren’t drafted or aren’t drafted as high as projected due to an injury.

Of course. But that's different than the projected $70 million Trouba could command. To insure that much, in full, over one year the rate would be insane. The kind of cost you can't look up online.
 

obey86

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Of course. But that's different than the projected $70 million Trouba could command. To insure that much, in full, over one year the rate would be insane. The kind of cost you can't look up online.

Read the 2nd article I posted, that's not how it works.

Typically only a certain percentage of a player's contract is insured, often 60%. So if Trouba is expecting a $70M contract (8.75/year for 8 years), only $42M of that contract would be subject to the insurance. And even at that, the insurance company would only be responsible for the difference between his expected contract and what he got, not the entire 42M.

Also in the article:

In fact, many professional athletes purchase this type of coverages the year preceding an anticipated jump in the value of their next contract. For example, a major league baseball (MLB) player might purchase a PTD/LOV policy before each year he is salary arbitration eligible and again before he becomes a free agent. NBA, NFL and NHL players often purchase LOV coverage prior to becoming both a restricted or an unrestricted free agent.

Understanding Loss-of-Value Insurance: An Interview with Richard Giller (Part 1) - CollegeAD

So many professional athletes have these types of insurance policies for situations similar to what Trouba is in. If they were prohibitively expensive, they wouldn't be so common.

Here's an estimate of the cost of these policies. So if Trouba is insurance 60% of $70M contract ($42M), a loss of value rider is going to cost him about $168,000/year. Hardly prohibitive for a professional athlete expecting a multimillion dollar contract.

So how much does one of these policies cost? Lerner said a total disability premium costs about $10,000 per million of insurance. Loss-of-value is about $4,000 per million in addition. So a policy such as Ekpre-Olomu's—$5 million in total disability and $3 million in loss-of-value—would cost about $62,000.

How loss-of-value insurance policies work
 
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Bench

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Here's an estimate of the cost of these policies. So if Trouba is insurance 60% of $70M contract ($42M), a loss of value rider is going to cost him about $168,000/year. Hardly prohibitive for a professional athlete expecting a multimillion dollar contract.

If you believe you can insure a $42 million dollar sports payout for $168K... Alright.
 

obey86

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If you believe you can insure a $42 million dollar sports payout for $168K... Alright.

I just quoted multiple articles, with direct quotes from people who do this stuff for a living, showing you that not only are these types of policies common for professional athletes but that they are not prohibitively expensive. But keep burying your head in the sand I guess because you can't admit you were wrong.

I still don't think you quite understand that the insurance company wouldn't be paying out the full contract amount if the loss of value policy had to be used and that LOV policies aren't going to be for the full amount of a contract. They would be paying out the difference between what he got and what he was expected to get - which could realistically only be a few million per year at most for each year of the contract. They aren't paying out 72 million or even 42 million in the event the policy is used.

Do you really believe that professional athletes, who's entire earnings depend on their ability to move/skate/run/etc and not be disabled (unlike the typical person who is working behind a desk) don't have any sort of disability insurance? Because disability insurance is going to be more expensive than a 1 year/limited term loss of value policy rider is.

Odell Beckman, $100M policy estimated to cost him $600k.

Following a game-ending ankle sprain in Monday night’s loss to the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (“OBJ”) announced that he is considering the purchase of a $100 million insurance policy to protect against future injury. The protection does not come cheap – with premium around $600,000, according to a recent news account. Nevertheless, OBJ apparently is considering the insurance in the event he cannot come to terms with the Giants on a new long-term contract.

OBJ’s decision to personally pursue insurance to guard against loss of income should the star receiver suffer an injury is not new to the sports and entertainment fields, with most professional sports franchises purchasing insurance to cover contractual payments that must be made to key players if circumstances render them unable to perform on the field.

Odell Beckham Jr. Calls Audible on $100M Player Disability Insurance Policy | Hunton Insurance Recovery Blog

Look, I don’t know what the exact cost of one of best would be for Trouba - maybe 300k, maybe 1M - I don’t know. But these riders aren’t cost prohibitive for athletes to do (especially athletes expecting a 70 million payday) and athletes likely aren’t going to insure the entire amount anyways - they are simply looking to hedge their losses a bit in the case of an injury.
 
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Gniwder

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I just quoted multiple articles, with direct quotes from people who do this stuff for a living, showing you that not only are these types of policies common for professional athletes but that they are not prohibitively expensive. But keep burying your head in the sand I guess because you can't admit you were wrong.

I still don't think you quite understand that the insurance company wouldn't be paying out the full contract amount if the loss of value policy had to be used and that LOV policies aren't going to be for the full amount of a contract. They would be paying out the difference between what he got and what he was expected to get - which could realistically only be a few million per year at most for each year of the contract. They aren't paying out 72 million or even 42 million in the event the policy is used. And Trouba

Do you really believe that professional athletes, who's entire earnings depend on their ability to move/skate/run/etc and not be disabled (unlike the typical person who is working behind a desk) don't have any sort of disability insurance? Because disability insurance is going to be more expensive than a 1 year/limited term loss of value policy rider is.

Odell Beckman, $100M policy estimated to cost him $600k.



Odell Beckham Jr. Calls Audible on $100M Player Disability Insurance Policy | Hunton Insurance Recovery Blog

Look, I don’t know what the exact cost of one of best would be for Trouba - maybe 300k, maybe 1M - I don’t know. But these riders aren’t cost prohibitive for athletes to do (especially athletes expecting a 70 million payday) and athletes likely aren’t going to insure the entire amount anyways - they are simply looking to hedge their losses a bit in the case of an injury.
I think you're numbers are in the ballpark, I did the same calculation when I saw this. Compared to the number of policies these companies issue, the number of career ending injuries are relatively small.

Just wanted to point out that these same companies cover teams as well (I looked up a couple on Google). So they're issuing a lot of policies, not just pending UFA or college kids.

On a side note, the reason why the team sued Uwe Krupp for his dog sled incident was because the team didn't have his contract insured.
 
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obey86

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I think you're numbers are in the ballpark, I did the same calculation when I saw this. Compared to the number of policies these companies issue, the number of career ending injuries are relatively small.

Just wanted to point out that these same companies cover teams as well (I looked up a couple on Google). So they're issuing a lot of policies, not just pending UFA or college kids.

On a side note, the reason why the team sued Uwe Krupp for his dog sled incident was because the team didn't have his contract insured.

Exactly.

I'd also like to add that any career ending injuries would actually likely fall under the player's disability policy, which would be separate from this loss of value policy. From what I can gather, these loss of value policies aren't typically standalone policies, but are simply riders that the athlete can add for an additional premium to their existing disability policy (which they are likely already paying for, as their entire livelihood depends on them being able to play sports).
 

Bench

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Exactly.

I'd also like to add that any career ending injuries would actually likely fall under the player's disability policy, which would be separate from this loss of value policy. From what I can gather, these loss of value policies aren't typically standalone policies, but are simply riders that the athlete can add for an additional premium to their existing disability policy (which they are likely already paying for, as their entire livelihood depends on them being able to play sports).

Listen, I hear you, but you're talking about scenarios that are entirely different than the one I was replying to. The original question was whether you could insure your entire projected earnings in the event of a major career changing injury for a single season while you wait for UFA. Of course there's varying degrees of insurance you can take, but nothing as comprehensive that it would be worth the risk to turn down guaranteed $60+ million on the table and venture into UFA.

This is why 1 year deals are by far preferred by teams and avoided like the plague by players. I really didn't think I was venturing into controversial territory, but here we are again.
 

Syckle78

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I think you're numbers are in the ballpark, I did the same calculation when I saw this. Compared to the number of policies these companies issue, the number of career ending injuries are relatively small.

Just wanted to point out that these same companies cover teams as well (I looked up a couple on Google). So they're issuing a lot of policies, not just pending UFA or college kids.

On a side note, the reason why the team sued Uwe Krupp for his dog sled incident was because the team didn't have his contract insured.
The reason Toronto was able to trade the Clarkson contract was because the cheap dummies in Columbus didn't insure Nathan Hortons huge contract that he played like ten games of and couldn't afford to have 40m wasting away on ltir.
 

newfy

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Jul 28, 2010
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Listen, I hear you, but you're talking about scenarios that are entirely different than the one I was replying to. The original question was whether you could insure your entire projected earnings in the event of a major career changing injury for a single season while you wait for UFA. Of course there's varying degrees of insurance you can take, but nothing as comprehensive that it would be worth the risk to turn down guaranteed $60+ million on the table and venture into UFA.

This is why 1 year deals are by far preferred by teams and avoided like the plague by players. I really didn't think I was venturing into controversial territory, but here we are again.

It seems like youre kindaburying your head in the sand. Obey has quoted a bunch of different articles stating you can in fact do it and there have been some examples of it working for guys who did it. Is he going to get a guaranteed 60 million? Maybe not but with insurance hes going to get multi generational wealth while being able to risk a season to get to UFA. Its a bit of a gamble obviously but insurance makes it likely worth the risk for him.

Teams would prefer a one year deal but are avoided by the players? I dont think thats remotely true when talking about RFAs. Trouba is the perfect example of a guy who absolutly should fight for a one year deal and let the bidding war happen next July
 

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