Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead

[nuck]

On Byfield/Stutzle. I think playing the game at the speed Stutzle does (he's the best skating forward in the draft outside of Foudy), and still playing high-IQ is quite rare. People overvalue scarcity when talking about prospects sometimes, Puljujarvi had/has a very rare skill-set but he can't put it togeather.

Drysdale, I don't think has the puck control/hands to be dynamic in the NHL. He'll have trouble navigating through traffic playing at speed required. He isn't Hughes or Makar. If Leafs took Drysdale over Sanderson, I'd be pissed. Sanderson is exactly what this D-core is missing. It's like how adding Barrie really didn't do much for us.

When discussing Perfetti/Rossi, it should be noted even if the age gap is a couple months, Rossi is much more developed. The last 2 years, Rossi has been able to wake up at 8am and work on hockey all-day, and train. He's maxed out his size (Yakupov and Galchenyuk did this in the OHL). Whereas Perfetti has had to atleast keep a semi-normal life with a high-school routine. I also don't think Rossi's game is that transferable, he relies too much on muscling guys down low, and he won't be able to do that in the NHL. Most small successful guys are either high-iq snipers who arrive at the spot at the right time to put in the puck (Debrincat), or possess puck skills and skating that make them insanely elusive buying them more time on the puck to create plays (Marner and Kane).

Where do you think Hendrix Lapiere will go? How scared might teams be of his injuries?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Where do you think Hendrix Lapiere will go? How scared might teams be of his injuries?

Not that you asked me, but I have him still going top 25... Only because there are not too many better alternatives. Every other guy around him is also super risky, and Lapierre easily has the most upside of the bunch. If he had a full year and played up to his potential, he is top 5 in this draft... And this draft is deep up top.

The same goes for Justin Barron, who I still have in the top 25 as well.

 

[93LEAFS]

Where do you think Hendrix Lapiere will go? How scared might teams be of his injuries?

No idea, that one comes down to medicals information I don't have, and teams being unable to use their own doctors to run their own tests further complicates it.

 

[93LEAFS]

Not that you asked me, but I have him still going top 25... Only because there are not too many better alternatives. Every other guy around him is also super risky, and Lapierre easily has the most upside of the bunch. If he had a full year and played up to his potential, he is top 5 in this draft... And this draft is deep up top.

The same goes for Justin Barron, who I still have in the top 25 as well.

I don't think he touches the top 5 even if fully healthy. He simply can't score goals even at the QMJHL level. Guys who can't score goals always raise redflags at lower levels.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't think he touches the top 5 even if fully healthy. He simply can't score goals even at the QMJHL level. Guys who can't score goals always raise redflags at lower levels.

I would have liked to see how he did in a full season, especially as Chicoutimi got better, but I agree. You need to be able to score, especially at the junior level.

However his playmaking ability was/is excellent and he has the IQ to be an amazing player in the NHL. In a draft with other quality prospects, he may not go in the first round, but there is a lack of quality center prospects in this draft, and the vast majority of the high end quality in this draft is boom/bsut like him anyways.

 

[93LEAFS]

I would have liked to see how he did in a full season, especially as Chicoutimi got better, but I agree. You need to be able to score, especially at the junior level.

However his playmaking ability was/is excellent and he has the IQ to be an amazing player in the NHL. In a draft with other quality prospects, he may not go in the first round, but there is a lack of quality center prospects in this draft, and the vast majority of the high end quality in this draft is boom/bsut like him anyways.

He's always lacked the edge to consistently drive the net and his shot isn't that good to begin with. You would think his current run of injuries could likely further increase playing on the perimeter. Even prior to his injuries, I thought he was closer to 15 than 5. I mean, most high-IQ guys will know when to seize an opportunity goal-scoring wise, and not overpass. Even someone like Marner or Huberdeau were high-end goal-scorers in junior, who are primarily play-makers who went top 5 in their respective years.

I have no idea where I'd take him because I haven't seen his medicals. But, 3 concussions in a short span (with apparent concussions in midget and below) is a massive red flag, and not something easily overcome.

 

[Scintillating10]

Not that you asked me, but I have him still going top 25... Only because there are not too many better alternatives. Every other guy around him is also super risky, and Lapierre easily has the most upside of the bunch. If he had a full year and played up to his potential, he is top 5 in this draft... And this draft is deep up top.

The same goes for Justin Barron, who I still have in the top 25 as well.

I can't see him going top 5 if healthy. He is not a goal scorer. Injuries worry me to much to risk a first pick on him. At least early to mid pick first pick.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I can't see him going top 5 if healthy. He is not a goal scorer. Injuries worry me to much to risk a first pick on him. At least early to mid pick first pick.

Well injuries are the exact reason why he is not going to be taken any higher than like the late teens.

 

[nuck]

Not that you asked me, but I have him still going top 25... Only because there are not too many better alternatives. Every other guy around him is also super risky, and Lapierre easily has the most upside of the bunch. If he had a full year and played up to his potential, he is top 5 in this draft... And this draft is deep up top.

The same goes for Justin Barron, who I still have in the top 25 as well.

Your response is welcome Sea. I asked 93Leafs specifically because I recall he was not a Lapiere fan so I wasn't sure he would weigh in on the question. From TSN on the concussions, it may not be the concern level it appeared to be, although "twisted vertebrae" might be something that still scares him out of the 1st round. I have him going 25+ with some of 93s concerns about scoring. I think concussions, or what might think are concussions can make a player avoid the dirty areas so if he is fully healthy that might be a game changer for him. He was a beast at the Hlinka and was a fine goal scorer in Midget but that was pre-injury.

"Lapierre went for an MRI and X-ray and sought out three different specialists. The diagnosis was consistent from all three: Lapierre was actually dealing with a spinal injury. A few of his vertebrae were "twisted and stuck," Lapierre said. He worked with a physiotherapist and chiropractor and the headaches soon disappeared.
Considering how hard it was to move the vertebrae, the belief from the specialists, Lapierre says, is the injury was sustained way back in February 2019 at the same time when he was first concussed.
While the experts can't be 100 per cent certain, it's possible that Lapierre only sustained one concussion and the other problems this season were the direct result of the vertebrae issue being re-aggravated.
"Being diagnosed with three concussions in 10 months was worrying for me, my family and my future in hockey," Lapierre admits. "The new diagnosis is a really big relief and I feel confident going into next season that I'll be able to have success. I've strengthened my neck a lot."

 

[Cappuccino]

Not that you asked me, but I have him still going top 25... Only because there are not too many better alternatives. Every other guy around him is also super risky, and Lapierre easily has the most upside of the bunch. If he had a full year and played up to his potential, he is top 5 in this draft... And this draft is deep up top.

The same goes for Justin Barron, who I still have in the top 25 as well.

Would you rather pack our second rounder with AJ for a pick around 25 (and pick Barron or maybe even Schneider)

or trade AJ for a second round pick and pick twice in the 2nd round?

Keeping in mind we don't have a 3rd round pick...

 

[TML1967]

Would you rather pack our second rounder with AJ for a pick around 25 (and pick Barron or maybe even Schneider)

or trade AJ for a second round pick and pick twice in the 2nd round?

Keeping in mind we don't have a 3rd round pick...

If im moving multiple pieces to move up, its to take someone who has fallen a good amount from where they should have gone. Less to pick a guy who is worth around that pick.

My biggest hope is Askarov falls a bit because he is a G, and we combine our 2nd + AJ type package to get him around 20th.

Having a serious goalie stud on the back end would be huge for us, considering Freddie isnt getting any younger.

But in all reality, most guys will go +-5 spots of where they should in the top 25 or so, meaning trading up doesnt make a ton of sense.

 

[Cappuccino]

If im moving multiple pieces to move up, its to take someone who has fallen a good amount from where they should have gone. Less to pick a guy who is worth around that pick.

My biggest hope is Askarov falls a bit because he is a G, and we combine our 2nd + AJ type package to get him around 20th.

Having a serious goalie stud on the back end would be huge for us, considering Freddie isnt getting any younger.

But in all reality, most guys will go +-5 spots of where they should in the top 25 or so, meaning trading up doesnt make a ton of sense.

With Ottawa having multiple picks in top 15 and New Jersey having 2 or 3 picks in the first round (and both teams not having the greatest goalies), I can't see Askarov falling that much.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Would you rather pack our second rounder with AJ for a pick around 25 (and pick Barron or maybe even Schneider)

or trade AJ for a second round pick and pick twice in the 2nd round?

Keeping in mind we don't have a 3rd round pick...

If im moving multiple pieces to move up, its to take someone who has fallen a good amount from where they should have gone. Less to pick a guy who is worth around that pick.

My biggest hope is Askarov falls a bit because he is a G, and we combine our 2nd + AJ type package to get him around 20th.

Having a serious goalie stud on the back end would be huge for us, considering Freddie isnt getting any younger.

But in all reality, most guys will go +-5 spots of where they should in the top 25 or so, meaning trading up doesnt make a ton of sense.

Scenario 1: We have a pick in the late teens/early 20's on top of all of our other picks. (Max Quality)
Scenario 2: We have a pick in the 35-40 range on top of all of our other picks, plus a future 2nd. (Balance between quality and quantity)
Scenario 3: We have a pick in the 35-40 range, two in the 65-85 range, and all of our other picks, plus a future 3rd or 4th. (Max Quantity)

For the record, I believe there is a much better crop of players in the 35-40 range than at 50 in this draft. We are likely looking at a good defensive prospect like Niemela, Wallinder, O'Rourke or maybe Cormier/Barron if we are lucky. Otherwise, there are the higher quality boom/bust wingers like Peterka, Reichel, Foerster, Gunler, etc. or some of the lower upside but perhaps "safer" options like Neighbours, Greig and Sourdif. This quality will likely run out by the time you hit where our original 2nd will be placed, and you are going to be left with guys who are not going to be much better than many of the prospects you will find in the 3rd round.

Running through all of the options, Scenario 1 is attractive if there is a faller from the top 15. I like some of the top 25 prospects, but Scenario 1 mostly depends on what is available.

Scenario 2 is a nice hybrid option if the Leafs prefer to invest in later drafts or have assets for trades. Effectively it would be like the Leafs traded pick 50 for a future 2nd rather than two picks in the 3rd in this draft. We may be lucky enough to get another late round pick out of this trade (i.e. moving up from one of our 4ths to a late 3rd or something).

Scenario 3, even though I do not think the Leafs need quantity, could be the most attractive. Based on how I've analyzed this draft, there will be great in the 65-85 range in this draft. It is the range where all of the 2nd/3rd tier goalies (i.e. Commesso, Daws, Blomqvist, Bednar, Clang, Garand; I'll let you decide who is 2nd and 3rd tier, because I am still figuring out where the latter three may go) should start being taken... In the end, the Leafs can probably get two guys who rank more favourably than Kokkonen, SDA, Stotts, Abramov, Abruzzese, etc. in this range... And two guys who are probably about as good as our original pick in the 2nd round.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Can the Leafs still get the 9th or 10th overall pick without trading ?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Can the Leafs still get the 9th or 10th overall pick without trading ?

No.

 

[supermann_98]

Anyone know the name of that Russian Dman who was killing everyone with hits in a previous draft thread? What happened to him? From what I saw at the time he was projected as a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, now I don’t see him on any extended mocks

 

[Dion TheFluff]

Anyone know the name of that Russian Dman who was killing everyone with hits in a previous draft thread? What happened to him? From what I saw at the time he was projected as a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, now I don’t see him on any extended mocks

Yan Kuznetsov? big hitter out of the NCAA

 

[nuck]

Yan Kuznetsov? big hitter out of the NCAA

IHDB has him 6'4" 209

2019-20

U. of Connecticut

H-East

34

2

9

11

16

-7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Below from Elite Prospects.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Anyone know the name of that Russian Dman who was killing everyone with hits in a previous draft thread? What happened to him? From what I saw at the time he was projected as a late 1st, early 2nd rounder, now I don’t see him on any extended mocks

Yan Kuznetsov? big hitter out of the NCAA

Not that Kuznetsov is not a big hitter on occasion, but he is thinking of Alexander Nikitin.

Kuznetsov is still ranked on quite a few mocked, he is just maybe in a little bit more of an appropriate range (late 2nd/early 3rd vs. early 2nd).

Nikitin is now mostly like a 4th round prospect. He has questionable offensive upside and skating.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[trellaine201]

Hi. I am looking for clarification on this years draft and the Hurricanes conditional first round pick.

We keep this years pick if we finish 1-10 pick in the draft? Otherwise it’s Carolina’s ?

what are the chances we finish bottom 10? Only 1, 9,10 are available?

thanks

 

[hockeynorth]

Hi. I am looking for clarification on this years draft and the Hurricanes conditional first round pick.

We keep this years pick if we finish 1-10 pick in the draft? Otherwise it’s Carolina’s ?

what are the chances we finish bottom 10? Only 1, 9,10 are available?

thanks

I think it’s 1st or bust for us

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hi. I am looking for clarification on this years draft and the Hurricanes conditional first round pick.

We keep this years pick if we finish 1-10 pick in the draft? Otherwise it’s Carolina’s ?

what are the chances we finish bottom 10? Only 1, 9,10 are available?

thanks

I think it’s 1st or bust for us

Correct, since Winnipeg and the Rangers are already out (plus Florida), we are looking at 12th at best. That's if Chicago, Arizona and Montreal all win of course.

 

[trellaine201]

Ugh. Thank u. Deep draft I hear .

 

[hockeynorth]

Ugh. Thank u. Deep draft I hear .

Honestly I don’t love this class I think it’s pretty overrated due to some inflated numbers in the CHL this season along with some strange boom or bust guys you don’t usually see outside top 10 (Askarov, Lundell) potentially going outside top 10. IMO the top 3 is worse than 2015/2016/2018, while the top 10ish isn’t really any deeper than those years or 2017. I’d rather be in the 6-16 range next year or ideally hold a top pick in 2022/2023, now those are special classes.