Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by Mess, Jun 24, 2020.

  1. LeafChief Registered User

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    Stranges is a defensive disaster but his offensive skill is too high for a team to not at least threw a 7th at him. I suspect he'll be taken much higher than that.
     
  2. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    That is what I am saying, but I couldn't think of another guy in the top 75 who could go undrafted.

    Although once you get past the top 75, it's like a 50/50 crapshoot (which it really should not be). They have a bunch of 7th round/undrafted candidates occupying the 90's and early 100's, yet have guys who could legitimately go in the 4th or 5th round in like the late 100's or even the 200's. Seems like that happened last year too, so Covid-19 is not really an excuse.
     
  3. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    Most teams narrow their lists to between 75 and 100 total. So, Central Scouting having guys in their top 75 just for NA who go undrafted isn't shocking. The general feeling is there are only 75-100 legitimate prospects in every draft by teams scouting departments, it is just the variation of these lists among 31 teams that allows for a draft of 200 plus kids (although, teams run out of names and try to dump picks late in the draft for future picks or go to an area scout and take a wild card they may not have many viewings of.
     
  4. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    Last edited: Jul 17, 2020
  5. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    I don't think the goal of a scouting organization should be to pick all the guys who are drafted.

    There is very little in the way of in-depth analytics on prospects, especially when you are talking lower Russian developmental leagues. Plus, teams are reluctant to list guys they don't have significant knowledge on, such as background from talking to sources around the team. And, video scouting can be misleading and doesn't capture things to the same extent as live viewings, at least to a qualified scout. Skating for example is much easier to judge in person, and the consistent positioning and readings of the player, as the camera follows the puck, not the individual you are trying to scout.
     
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  6. ULF_55 Moderator

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    I am not up to date on the draft at all, my only hope Leafs or Blue Jackets win the lottery.
     
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  7. nuck Pelgrane

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    Sorry Ulf what happens of the Jackets win the lottery?
     
  8. ULF_55 Moderator

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    Leafs are in the playoffs round.
     
  9. weems Registered User

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  10. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    I'm intrigued by Vierling. The situation in Flint didn't help him at all, but from what I've been told, it was a personal issue that was really out of his control. He needs to work harder on the ice, but he has a ton of raw talent.
     
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  11. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    I like his IQ. I am not entirely sold on his skill set just yet. He has one of those good all-around packages with few weaknesses that could play up, especially as he gets bigger and stronger, but I am not sure he has any one elite skill. In that way, he could just top out as another Stotts.

    I think he needs more work than Stotts if he wants to stick as a center, but his superior IQ could make him a better bet than Stotts.

    All-in-all, a solid section in the 4th round.
     
  12. Saint Blue Registered User

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    He'll be gone well before the 4th round if I had to bet. He does almost everything better than Stotts at the same age but I can see the Brooks/Stotts stylistic comparison. You could also say he has a little Robert Thomas in him but like the other poster said his compete level on-ice deserves questioning. From the footage i've seen he coasts quite a bit in the offensive zone and doesn't take command often enough. His effort on the back-check can't be questioned though.

    I think he's gone early 3rd, but if he makes it to the Leafs 4th rounder they need to take him because he's going to explode next year beside Foerster.
     
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  13. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    We don't have a 3rd rounder and I think there are better prospects in the 3rd round. Maybe if he played with Barrie the entire year, or got to play in the playoffs with them, and maintained his pace, but a 25-ish game sample of his quality of play is not enough for him to crack what I think is an above-average 3rd round crop. If it was an average 3rd round crop, then I could easily see him go in the top 75 or 100, but I think in this draft he is more top 125.
     
  14. 4thline Registered User

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    I could see someone "reaching" on him in the late 2nd, and I wouldn't be mad if it was us. He had the kind of season that was a couple strong playoff rounds from quietly gaining 1st round consideration. Kind of player that if he "gets it" and keeps developing that you could see skipping the AHL and stepping in as a more offensive leaning 3C at 20

    The on-ice work thing is interesting, with his intelligence and transition hustle I wonder how much of it is a Nylander-esque learning curve in finding the right balance of cerebral position play vs. grind.
     
  15. meefer Registered User

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    A comment/question to those who are much more knowledgeable than I when it comes to draftable players. IMO, the spread of talent between the top 1-4 in any draft is shrinking. The same I’d hazard to comment, with respect to the next 2,3,4 tiers of players. But the true crapshoot occurs with the kids that will be drafted through rounds 4-7. Is it fair of me to think more of these kids are making the grade? I see the Leafs develop some late round picks and they make the show. This was a rarity in days gone by (or am I looking through the lenses of time?). In other words, is it becoming more difficult to accurately interpret a young person’s development curve because they tend to group more closely than 15-20 years back. I see the odd clip of so many kids doing ridiculous things and I’m amazed at how talented so many of them are. Determining who is better than who at such a young age must be very difficult.
     
  16. FreeBird Registered User

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    what a shame we traded so many of our draft picks and let so many ufa's walk for nothing we would be a dynasty
     
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  17. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    It's not that good... Guys like Muzzin and Campbell are going to more of an impact than the vast majority of these guys.
     
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  18. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    In my opinion outside the very top of the draft say the top 10 to 15 players, the odds of drafting a productive NHLer (top 9 forward, top 5 defenders or a starting goalie) quickly turn against you. There is very little certainty in a draft. Historically, outside rare exceptions like 2003 and 2015, after the first 10 to 15 picks, most drafts are fairly equal. I looked between 2005 and 2015 at one point for all picks between 11-20, and there were maybe 5 players I would deem stars (Kopitar, Karlsson, Tarasenko, Filip Forsberg, Vasilvesky, and Barzal), with a couple too early in their career who may be (Chabot, Larkin, Kyle Connor). I think that is still likely to hold. Now, there are also a ton of valuable players in this range who contribute to winning teams, but the number of outright busts and 4th liners would shock people.

    The only players who really offer any level of certainty in the draft, are the truly elite top tier of kids, such as Matthews and Eichel. Just look at the picks around Marner, who was viewed as in a tier with D. Strome and Hanifin at the time of his draft. Marner is a clear star player, Strome is a 2nd line center (maybe he takes that next step) and Hanifin is a middle-pairing D-man. Or, how Puljujarvi was supposed to be an elite prospect who was mostly viewed as the clear #3 in his draft (and was part of the reason while we wanted to win the lotto, were praying to stay in the top 3).

    In my eyes, the draft essentially becomes risky when you hit picks #11 or #16 overall. Even with as bad as we were through the decade of darkness, the only truly botched top 10 pick was Schenn. Now, as soon as we got outside the top 10, we were generally a disaster.
     
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  19. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    I concur. Top 10-15 is pretty good:

    Lafreniere
    Byfield
    Drysdale
    Stutzle
    Rossi
    ---
    Raymond
    Holtz
    Perfetti
    Sanderson
    Askarov/Lundell
    ---
    Askarov/Lundell
    Quinn
    Jarvis
    Mercer
    Guhle

    After that, it gets iffy. Guys like Zary, Amirov, Holloway, Bourque and Schneider are solid late-teens picks, but I don't think they are anything super special either. Essentially your prototypical top 25 pick.

    The best way to describe this draft is boom or bust. You have the above-average top 15 and a few solid top 25 picks, but after that you get a lot of high risk, high reward players. For example, Jacob Perreault has excellent skating ability and offensive skill set, but he needs to bulk up and improve his all-around game. If he turns out perfectly, I think he could be a 60+ point player, but he has very few other forgiving qualities. The same goes for a lot of guys like Thomas Bordeleau, Alex Pashin, Daniil Gushchin, J.J. Peterka, Kasper Simontaival, Noel Gunler, etc. I believe some of them could develop other parts of their games, but more than likely it will be their offensive game which makes or breaks them, and if they are not becoming top 6 players, they are likely not making the NHL at all (some may be able to become journeymen niche/3rd line depth scorers down the line).

    Then you have another boom-bust category with guys like Daemon Hunt, Theo Rochette, Antonio Stranges, Justin Barron, Hendrix Lapierre and Jan Bednar. Going into the year, all of these guys could have been seen as 1st round talents, but injuries and inconsistent play seriously hurt them. If they can return reach their potential, they could be major steals and turn out to be some of the best players in the entire draft.

    Depending on your luck and development ability, there is a chance for some good prospects in this draft. However this draft could just as easily turn out to be a major flop. It's the volatility associated with the draft, and many of the draft experts agree.
     
  20. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    I'm speaking in generalalities. Most drafts are quite similar outside the top 10 or so. Rarely is their much variance, unless you are talking about outlying draft classes like 2003 and possibly 2015.

    If thats your order, no way would I have Drysdale that high. I'd take Stuzle over all the OHL kids.
     
  21. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    I like Stutzle. I have had him in my top 5 before he was really seen as a top 5 talent. I just like Drysdale and Byfield more, but less than I like Stutzle over guys like Rossi, etc. If Stutzle was more of a clear fit as a center, that may change, but I think Stutzle provides less value as a winger than Drysdale as a potential #1 RD and Byfield as a large potential #1C.

    This is not really a finalized order. I am more concerned about getting tiers right than the right order. Each team has different preferences.
     
  22. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    I think Byfield doesn't see the game fast enough. He could seriously end up in a Sam Bennett role. I don't see the likelihood of Drysdale being a franchise defender. I think Sanderson has a better chance of being a 24 minute a game guy at the NHL level than Drysdale, which provides immense value even if he doesn't have the same offensive upside.

    I think Stutzle has a better chance of being a franchise center than Byfield. His transition game, the speed he plays the game at, and how much faster he sees things will give him a shot.

    I'd easily take Perfetti over Rossi. Rossi really beat up on the weaker Eastern conference teams which were barely OHL teams in NB, Niagra and Kingston. Remove both their games against those 3 teams, Rossi has a ppg of 1.84, Perfetti of 1.75 despite playing for a weaker team and being less developed physically.
     
  23. SeaOfBlue The Passion That Unites Us All

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    Once again, I think it really comes down to preference. Byfield and Stutzle are very different players with very different sets of skills. I think Stutzle, like a guy like Marner, is at his best when he has the puck on his stick and when the play goes through him. Byfield has more of a blend between playing on and off of the puck. I think Byfield is a more rare player, as you don't get too many guys with the size/skill/speed combination that he possesses, and he even uses his body quite well (which is not always common with those big guys). Stutzle is a high end talent, but relative to similar type players, I do not think he is nearly as rare or special. Really, I expect both to do very well.

    Same goes for Drysdale vs. Sanderson. Drysdale is a lot more dynamic, while Sanderson plays a style which is synonymous to a shut-down defender. Really, it depends how your team plays and what your team needs. A team like the Leafs would probably fall for a guy like Drysdale over Sanderson because they love guys who can move the puck at a high level, and Drysdale is probably the best at doing that in this draft.

    I have seen Perfetti more than Rossi, but I think Rossi is a better skater and overall player. Perfetti may be more dynamic offensively, but I think Rossi has a better shot at translating to the NHL than Perfetti. Plus Perfetti is never going to be a center, while I think Rossi has a realistic shot at making the NHL as a center.

    However, I spend a lot more time analyzing guys who are available to the Leafs and another playoff team I follow, so I will let teams like Ottawa, Detroit and LA figure out who they prefer more. I don't think you can go wrong with any selection as long as you develop them properly and can figure out how to use them effectively.
     
  24. 93LEAFS Registered User

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    On Byfield/Stutzle. I think playing the game at the speed Stutzle does (he's the best skating forward in the draft outside of Foudy), and still playing high-IQ is quite rare. People overvalue scarcity when talking about prospects sometimes, Puljujarvi had/has a very rare skill-set but he can't put it togeather.

    Drysdale, I don't think has the puck control/hands to be dynamic in the NHL. He'll have trouble navigating through traffic playing at speed required. He isn't Hughes or Makar. If Leafs took Drysdale over Sanderson, I'd be pissed. Sanderson is exactly what this D-core is missing. It's like how adding Barrie really didn't do much for us.

    When discussing Perfetti/Rossi, it should be noted even if the age gap is a couple months, Rossi is much more developed. The last 2 years, Rossi has been able to wake up at 8am and work on hockey all-day, and train. He's maxed out his size (Yakupov and Galchenyuk did this in the OHL). Whereas Perfetti has had to atleast keep a semi-normal life with a high-school routine. I also don't think Rossi's game is that transferable, he relies too much on muscling guys down low, and he won't be able to do that in the NHL. Most small successful guys are either high-iq snipers who arrive at the spot at the right time to put in the puck (Debrincat), or possess puck skills and skating that make them insanely elusive buying them more time on the puck to create plays (Marner and Kane).
     
  25. nuck Pelgrane

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    Where do you think Hendrix Lapiere will go? How scared might teams be of his injuries?
     

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