Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead

[Fogelhund]

There is a thread on the main trade board, posted by a Senators fan. Would you trade the 1OA for 3OA and 5thOA?

So, first let's hope that we do well in the playoffs, and this isn't a remote possibility... but, let's imagine, that we don't win the playin round, and do win the lottery, having the right to select Lafreniere.

Would you trade that 1OA for Lafreniere?

You'd end up with Byfield/Stutzle with the #3, and likely RHD Drysdale with the #5.

Would you do it?

 

[LeafChief]

There is a thread on the main trade board, posted by a Senators fan. Would you trade the 1OA for 3OA and 5thOA?

So, first let's hope that we do well in the playoffs, and this isn't a remote possibility... but, let's imagine, that we don't win the playin round, and do win the lottery, having the right to select Lafreniere.

Would you trade that 1OA for Lafreniere?

You'd end up with Byfield/Stutzle with the #3, and likely RHD Drysdale with the #5.

Would you do it?

Probably not.

 

[Stephen]

There is a thread on the main trade board, posted by a Senators fan. Would you trade the 1OA for 3OA and 5thOA?

So, first let's hope that we do well in the playoffs, and this isn't a remote possibility... but, let's imagine, that we don't win the playin round, and do win the lottery, having the right to select Lafreniere.

Would you trade that 1OA for Lafreniere?

You'd end up with Byfield/Stutzle with the #3, and likely RHD Drysdale with the #5.

Would you do it?

Hard to say. Lafreniere on an ELC would be a nice luxury to have, and depending on how he develops it could push out one of the Big 4 for another big fish. But then again Byfield and Drysdale could add some serious depth to the organization.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Probably not.

TBH, I would seriously consider it. I think Lafreniere will be good, but far from generational.

I imagine LA is going to take Byfield at #2, so we could get Stutzle and then probably Drysdale at #5 (since I imagine Detroit would rather go with a guy like Rossi, even though Drysdale is better). Is Stutzle as good as Lafreniere? No. But if I could get Drysdale as well, who could be as good as Rielly, then I would probably be willing to do it. We don't need a Lafreniere, but we still get a guy we can put in that top 6 LW (along with Robertson going forward) and get a RD who could be a mainstay in our top 4 along with guys like Rielly, Sandin, Liljegren, etc.

 

[supermann_98]

I think you hold onto everyone until an offer that knocks your socks off comes around. Montreal would offer a ridiculous package for Lafreniere.

Montreal wouldn’t even be a consideration to be a trade partner

 

[leaffaninvancouver]

Wow, 1 in 8 shot at getting Lafreniere if the season is cancelled. Same if we lose in the qualifying round.

If the season is cancelled we will not be in the second draft as we’re currently in a playoff spot and have too high of points won percentage.

We would be outside of the top ten and immediately lose our first round pick to Carolina.

 

[Drew311]

Lafreniere - Matthews - Marner

It just wouldn’t be fair.

 

[Stephen]

Well, seems like our odds of landing Lafreniere are somewhat tied to what kind of health our other first overall pick is. Big picture, I prefer that Matthews is okay and the Leafs go on a championship run, but getting Lafreniere would be so weird and such an unexpected blessing too.

 

[LeafChief]

TBH, I would seriously consider it. I think Lafreniere will be good, but far from generational.

I imagine LA is going to take Byfield at #2, so we could get Stutzle and then probably Drysdale at #5 (since I imagine Detroit would rather go with a guy like Rossi, even though Drysdale is better). Is Stutzle as good as Lafreniere? No. But if I could get Drysdale as well, who could be as good as Rielly, then I would probably be willing to do it. We don't need a Lafreniere, but we still get a guy we can put in that top 6 LW (along with Robertson going forward) and get a RD who could be a mainstay in our top 4 along with guys like Rielly, Sandin, Liljegren, etc.

I've gone and looked at a bunch of the last few drafts. The Draisatl/Pettersson drafts are two of the few were you would rather the 3+5 over the one. With a lot of them it really isn't close.

 

[Fogelhund]

I've gone and looked at a bunch of the last few drafts. The Draisatl/Pettersson drafts are two of the few were you would rather the 3+5 over the one. With a lot of them it really isn't close.

Here is a list..

Posted this list in the trade rumours thread. More often than not 1>3+5 and especially when there is a consensus #1. Given our limited cap space, a star on an ELC is just what we need.

Last 25 1st, 3rd & 5th overall picks.

Jack Hughes	Kirby Dach	Alex Turcotte
Rasmus Dahlin	Jesperi Kotkaniemi	Barrett Hayton
Nico Hischier	Miro Heiskanen	Elias Pettersson
Auston Matthews	Pierre-Luc Dubois	Olli Juolevi
Connor McDavid	Dylan Strome	Noah Hanifin
Aaron Ekblad	Leon Draisaitl	Michael Dal Colle
Nathan MacKinnon	Jonathan Drouin	Elias Lindholm
Nail Yakupov	Alex Galchenyuk	Morgan Rielly
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	Jonathan Huberdeau	Ryan Strome
Taylor Hall	Erik Gudbranson	Nino Niederreiter
John Tavares	Matt Duchene	Brayden Schenn
Steven Stamkos	Zach Bogosian	Luke Schenn
Patrick Kane	Kyle Turris	Karl Alzner
Erik Johnson	Jonathan Toews	Phil Kessel
Sidney Crosby	Jack Johnson	Carey Price
Alex Ovechkin	Cam Barker	Blake Wheeler
Marc-Andre Fleury	Nathan Horton	Thomas Vanek
Rick Nash	Jay Bouwmeester	Ryan Whitney
Ilya Kovalchuk	Alexander Svitov	Stanislav Chistov
Rick DiPietro	Marian Gaborik	Raffi Torres
Patrik Stefan	Henrik Sedin	Tim Connolly
Vincent Lecavalier	Brad Stuart	Vitaly Vishnevski
Joe Thornton	Olli Jokinen	Eric Brewer
Chris Phillips	J.P. Dumont	Ric Jackman
Bryan Berard	Aki Berg	Daymond Langkow

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The thing is... you knew in advance which of these first overall picks were "great" picks, well ahead of the field, and which were just.... good picks. Obviously you never would have given up McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon at the time... but you probably would have considered Yakupov, Ekblad, Hughes, Hischier.

I don't think you'd ever make a decision based on an "average" success rate in the past, as much as how you judged the difference in the quality of the current guys. Is Laf a McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon level to you, or a "lesser" first overall? How about the guys in the 2-5 range? Are they a big drop off like some years, or are they fairly close to the first overall?

To me, Laf isn't at the top picks of prior drafts level.... maybe I'm wrong, and if others disagree, that's fine....

 

[Shanwhatplan]

It's a win-win for the Leafs this season. They get past Columbus it's past the 1st round for the first time since 2004. We lose it's a 1/8 chance for another 1st overall.

Actually, it would be the first time they’ve won a series since 2004, I believe, because technically the 1st round starts after the play-in series. But I get your point.

 

[deletethis]

The 2020 NHL entry draft would have been completed yesterday.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I've gone and looked at a bunch of the last few drafts. The Draisatl/Pettersson drafts are two of the few were you would rather the 3+5 over the one. With a lot of them it really isn't close.

Imagine landing Heiskanen and Petterson in one draft.

 

[VanW27]

I gotta say, I think it would have been more fun if "Team E" just won the lottery outright instead of having a 2 phase lottery.

Imagine fans of the few teams that could potentially end up as "Team E" going through the scenarios of which series need to go a certain way for them to get the #1 pick, or even better, an elimination game where you know if you win you move on, but if you lose you get #1 overall.

 

[LeafChief]

Imagine landing Heiskanen and Petterson in one draft.

Imagine taking Turris and Alzner over Patrick Kane.

 

[sxvnert]

Would rather have the 1st overall pick than a 2nd round appearance.

 

[Cor]

Would rather have the 1st overall pick than a 2nd round appearance.

That isn't really the scenario.

Would you rather a 1/8 shot at the top picks or some playoff success.

The far likely scenario if we lose to Columbus is that we don't get "playoffs" and still don't have a first round pick

 

[SeaOfBlue]

That isn't really the scenario.

Would you rather a 1/8 shot at the top picks or some playoff success.

The far likely scenario if we lose to Columbus is that we don't get "playoffs" and still don't have a first round pick

Pretty much the best thing is that if you do lose, you have some kind of consolation. However losing would still be worse than winning, especially since the Leafs' chances could be a lot better than people think.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

For those who are bored with the 2020 draft and want some 2021 news, here are some of the prospects drafted in the CHL Import Draft who could be worth looking at for 2021:

RW Matvei Petrov - North Bay
RD Oliver Fatul - Swift Current (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
LW Attilo Biasca - Halifax
LW Martin Rysavy - Moose Jaw
C Alex Geci - Sarnia
F Alexei Prokopenko - Gatineau
G Tomas Suchanek - Tri-City
LW Viljami Marjala - Quebec
LD Stanislav Svozil - Regina
LD Artyom Grushnikov - Hamilton
RW Tomas Chlubna - Red Deer (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
LD Kasper Larsen - Mississauga
C Lorezno Canonica - Shawinigan
LW Fyodor Svechkov - Saint John
RD Michal Krutil - Kelowna (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
RW Marcus Almquist - Victoria (may not come to CHL, at least right away)
LD Noah Delemont - Owen Sound (2020 eligible, but likely undrafted)
F Danila Klimovich - Rouyn Noranda
LW Fabian Lysell - Vancouver (may not come to CHL, at least right away)
RW Samu Tuomaala - Sudbury (likely not coming to CHL at all)
C Brad Lambert (2022 eligible; likely not coming to CHL at all)
RD Daniil Sobolev - Windsor
LD Brian Zanetti - Peterborough
LD Dmitry Kuzmin - Flint
C Matej Kaslik - Chicoutimi (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
RW Nikita Chibrikov - Lethbridge (not coming over to the CHL this year, but one of the better Russian prospects)
G Pavel Cajan - Kitchener
LD Viktor Persson - Kamloops (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
C Vsevolod Gaidamak - Ottawa
RW Alexander Palchik - Barrie

 

[LeafChief]

For those who are bored with the 2020 draft and want some 2021 news, here are some of the prospects drafted in the CHL Import Draft who could be worth looking at for 2021:

RW Matvei Petrov - North Bay
RD Oliver Fatul - Swift Current (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
LW Attilo Biasca - Halifax
LW Martin Rysavy - Moose Jaw
C Alex Geci - Sarnia
F Alexei Prokopenko - Gatineau
G Tomas Suchanek - Tri-City
LW Viljami Marjala - Quebec
LD Stanislav Svozil - Regina
LD Artyom Grushnikov - Hamilton
RW Tomas Chlubna - Red Deer (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
LD Kasper Larsen - Mississauga
C Lorezno Canonica - Shawinigan
LW Fyodor Svechkov - Saint John
RD Michal Krutil - Kelowna (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
RW Marcus Almquist - Victoria (may not come to CHL, at least right away)
LD Noah Delemont - Owen Sound (2020 eligible, but likely undrafted)
F Danila Klimovich - Rouyn Noranda
LW Fabian Lysell - Vancouver (may not come to CHL, at least right away)
RW Samu Tuomaala - Sudbury (likely not coming to CHL at all)
C Brad Lambert (2022 eligible; likely not coming to CHL at all)
RD Daniil Sobolev - Windsor
LD Brian Zanetti - Peterborough
LD Dmitry Kuzmin - Flint
C Matej Kaslik - Chicoutimi (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
RW Nikita Chibrikov - Lethbridge (not coming over to the CHL this year, but one of the better Russian prospects)
G Pavel Cajan - Kitchener
LD Viktor Persson - Kamloops (2020 eligible, but a better bet for 2021)
C Vsevolod Gaidamak - Ottawa
RW Alexander Palchik - Barrie

I thought it was odd when I saw Lambert get picked (I know he has roots in the area). I'd imagine he would be better served playing pro in Europe.

Is there any chance he chooses to represent Canada internationally or is he definitely going to be suiting up for Finland?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I thought it was odd when I saw Lambert get picked (I know he has roots in the area). I'd imagine he would be better served playing pro in Europe.

Is there any chance he chooses to represent Canada internationally or is he definitely going to be suiting up for Finland?

Will likely continue playing for Finland, and will likely continue playing in Finland. Saskatoon just threw a long shot out there because they probably did not like anyone else... Even though there were some really good prospects taken after him.

 

[93LEAFS]

We are a long way from figuring out a CHL season. These teams aren't viable without gate revenue. There is no keeping these kids in a protected bubble, and for the WHL/OHL they have significant cross border issues, and Canada isn't going to waive restrictions on those for minor hockey which is a minor economic contributor. I wouldn't be shocked to see some of the very top 2021 kids from Canada attempt to go to Europe. I have a hard time seeing how the CHL is viable in the foreseeable future.

 

[Gabriel426]

Here is a list..



The thing is... you knew in advance which of these first overall picks were "great" picks, well ahead of the field, and which were just.... good picks. Obviously you never would have given up McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon at the time... but you probably would have considered Yakupov, Ekblad, Hughes, Hischier.

I don't think you'd ever make a decision based on an "average" success rate in the past, as much as how you judged the difference in the quality of the current guys. Is Laf a McDavid, Matthews, MacKinnon level to you, or a "lesser" first overall? How about the guys in the 2-5 range? Are they a big drop off like some years, or are they fairly close to the first overall?

To me, Laf isn't at the top picks of prior drafts level.... maybe I'm wrong, and if others disagree, that's fine....

I think when you look at that, it is better to see who else were available at 3 and 5 instead of just who got picked at 3 and 5. Having said that, guys like Pastra and Point are outliner and should not be put into considerations.

I will admit I have not been following this draft but from what I have seen and read, I think the players you get to pick at No.3 and No. 5 Vs Laf is pretty close. Laf will be a star, there is no doubt about it but the players you get to choose at 3 and 5 are not your average top 6, they could potentially be as good as Laf.

 

[VanW27]

Julien openly talking about the appeal of tanking their series for a shot at Lafrenier.

Doesn't really make the NHL look good with its "everyone gets a shot at the playoffs" plan.

 

[93LEAFS]

I'd take Laf at 1, simply because he fills the biggest hole among our forwards, which is an elite #1 LWer, and is likely to make the most immediate impact on his ELC. Now, if we didn't have two franchise centers or a dynamic winger like Marner and weren't built to contend now. I would spend a long time examining Stutzle.