Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by BertCorbeau, Apr 3, 2019.

  1. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    Weak draft for goalies though, which is funny because it's the draft with the first generational goalie in a long time in Askarov and the best Czech crop in as long as I could remember in Nick Malik and Jan Bednar. Unlike in previous years, the USA has absolutely nothing worth looking at right now, and Canada would not be much better had it not been for Garand. Even Garand is not someone I can see people loving, and unless he has a stellar statistical season, could be a late-round/undrafted goalie. Sweden and Finland each have solid 3rd round type goalies in Calle Clang and Joel Blomqvist respectively, but that's it right now. It's still early, but in the past few years there was still usually a good starting list of around 10-15 guys with the potential to be top 3 or 4 round guys. Right now I would say there is only 6. The rest need to come from the shadows (i.e. Aidan Campbell or Garin Bjorklund) or improve (i.e. Drew Commisso) to warrant getting on draft boards.

    Right now Bjorklund,Commisso, Hugo Ollas, and Vsevolod Svetnikov are borderline guys who likely will get drafted by someone, but right now it would be later on.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2019
  2. LeafsOHLRangers98

    LeafsOHLRangers98 Registered User

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    Agreed, I really wanted a goalie this year. Wolf would have been a good pick with our 7th. I liked Sogaard too but he went too high.
     
  3. Todd03

    Todd03 Registered User

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    No matter what any body says you can not win a stanley cup with a small team. Ever pick the leafs had this year was under 6 feet.
    And will not ever help the team win. Look at the St. louis blues the teams defence 5 of the 6 players were over 6-2. so you be the judge.
     
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  4. stickty111

    stickty111 Registered User

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    Look at the Pittsburgh Penguins. They won with skilled small team.
    Do you prefer picking non NHL players like Middelton, Gordeev? They are tall.
     
  5. LeafsOHLRangers98

    LeafsOHLRangers98 Registered User

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    We were one of the biggest teams in the league last year and were much bigger than Boston. Size wasn't the reason we lost.

    Even then look at all the guys we've drafted the last few years that were 6'2" or bigger:

    Rasanen
    Gordeev

    Matthews
    Korshkov
    Greenway
    Middleton
    Mattinen
    Chebykin

    Nielsen
    Desrocher

    Now, other than Matthews, how many of those guys look like future NHLers? Maybe 1 or 2 guys could eventually make it, even then most are at least two years away, most are busts.

    I'm all for adding size but you have to take skill first and hope the size comes with it. I'd much rather have a bunch of guys like Bracco, Robinson, SDA, Dermott,Sandin, Liljegren over guys that are simply bigger without the skill.
     
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  6. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    A CHL goalie could have made sense this year in terms of timing. I expect one of Woll or Scott to be in the NHL in two years so that would open up a spot for a new goalie. However the crop of goalies really fell off after the 4th round. There were some interesting goalies taken, but a lot of them were projects or had problems which would have made them longshots to make the jump in two years. Plus, Woll or Scott could realistically need 3 years (2 years is aggressive for goalie prospects even though Scott and Woll are well above an average goalie prospect), so taking a goalie this year could make more sense anyways.

    We may just have to spend an earlier pick on one this year (there are some decent goalies who should be in that 3rd round range again) or take a chance on one of the goalies who slipped through the cracks this year assuming they improved (i.e. Basran, Gauthier, Anders, Maier, etc.).
     
  7. justafan22

    justafan22 Registered User

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    As an aside, the Leafs haven't really had that many first round busts since 2000.

    Biggs is the only one that was a true bust, not considering injuries.

    Tlusty and Schenn were disappointments, but they still had 8 and 10+ year careers to date.

    Percy is probably the 2nd worst, but injuries!
     
  8. horner

    horner Registered User

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    Alexander Nikishin LHD Russian 6'2" 196
    Hits like a mack truck exactly what we need on D
    He is ranked by some to go in the middle to late 2 Nd Rd .
    Would love to trade up to grab this kid.

    thedraftanalysist write up

    One of the fiersest hitters in the draft
    Has deceptive speed and a quick first step
    Some say his antics border on dirty but one has to be impressed with the timing of his hits, thus thking it very difficult to penalize him.
    They have him ranked at 56 th
     
  9. LeafsOHLRangers98

    LeafsOHLRangers98 Registered User

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    It's conceivable that at some point next year we could have each of our last 7 first round picks in the lineup. As much as Gauthier was a miss as a 1st round pick, the other 6 look like money and I would struggle to find another team with that kind if record in the first round of the draft.

    Sandin
    Liljegren
    Matthews
    Marner
    Nylander
    Gauthier
    Rielly

    Is there any other team that could potentially have 7 first round picks in a row in the lineup this year?
     
  10. LaPlante94

    LaPlante94 Registered User

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    Funny you mention his name because somehow and for some reason I found this video when I was bored waiting at the dentist office last week. Never really fell in love with a prospect from a highlight video but this one showed everything from hits, dangles/hands, goals, assists, speed/breakout, defensive stick, and even at the end showed some negative stuff to show he's not perfect and has some flaws to work on.
     
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  11. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    Got a chance to see Hague the other night for Vegas. I really wanted him in his draft but was also pretty happy that Liljegren was there for us.

    Kind of reminds me of wanting Carlo but us taking Dermott. Not gonna complain too much about not getting "my guy" in the draft, especially a 2nd round pick but I feel like that would really change the look for us, we'd have some toughness and size there.

    That being said, is there anything with that type of potential in the draft this year? Some size, not a pylon? I know you can strike out as we've seen with Rasanen but add prime Shea Weber to this team and we're gold lol.
     
  12. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    Mostly smart puck movers in our range right now. Not that it's a bad thing, but nobody I would really call a physical force on the back end.

    EDIT: If I had to pick one, it would be someone like Braden Schneider. Although even he's probably similar to someone like Cody Ceci all things considered.
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2019
  13. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    When you draft top 10, you'll generally get NHLers. That's why missing on one, is generally a massive blow. Past that, it's basically 50/50 you'll get an NHLer of value. Once you are in the 16-20 range it dips below 50%.

    Winnipeg has a pretty similar track record dating back to when they arrived. They had to move on from Trouba, and it's not fair to count their most recent 1st round pick. But, last year Scheifele (2011), Trouba (2012), Morrissey (2013), Ehlers (2014), Connor (2015), Roslovic (2015), Laine (2016), Stanley (2016) and Vesalainen (2017). The only two of those who weren't contributors were Vesalainen and Stanley. Most of the others were key contributors in prominent positions. I mean, it accounts for their #1C, 3 of their 4 best wingers, and their 2nd and 3rd best D-men. To have that many recent first-rounders as legit NHLers, you have to be drafting top 10 a lot, as shown by the other good example. Leafs have 4 top 10 picks, while Winnipeg had 4 too. Since 2011, the only teams to pick in 4 or more times are New Jersey (4), Colorado (6), Oilers (8), Buffalo (7), Vancouver (6), and Florida (4). Some of those teams picks are also quite recent. Leafs have generally done well in the top 10 and in Sweden outside of 2011, but the team had serious issues outside of those two areas prior to Shanahan bringing Hunter in. I mean, our most successful non-Swedish drafted after the 1st round since the 05 lockout is probably Kulemin with guys like Komarov and Reimer also in the discussion. Good players, but I would assume most teams would have a guy clearly better. To be honest, though, most of the horrific 2nd round and later drafting was the Burke/Nonis era with Connor Brown probably being the best non-Bergman pick. JFJ for all his faults actually showed decently in the draft.
     
  14. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    He's actually my target right now but I think he'll go too high for us since we gave away our 1st.
     
  15. supermann_98

    supermann_98 Registered User

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    :laugh: Two minutes in and I'm already in love with this kid.
     
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  16. bentharbs

    bentharbs Registered User

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    Anyone arguing that we should look at size over skill in a vacuum should kindly remember Tyler Biggs.
     
  17. 4thline

    4thline Registered User

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    To this day my gut tells me theres something off ice to the Biggs story.
     
  18. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    I went from hoping for 3rd wheel on a 2nd line

    to 3rd liner

    to 4th liner relatively fast.

    Had to be something off ice. He had to the tools to make the league as a 4th liner and wasn't bad defensively.
     
  19. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    I think he'll end up going a similar route to Korczak or Vlasic TBH. I don't think he has the offensive game to be a 1st rounder, and could drop as a result. Tyler Kleven is another. Kleven and Schneider could be this year's Korczak and Vlasic.

    Both still were early 40's picks, but it was not the 15-25 range they were at a year ago today (Vlasic was even a consideration for a top 10 pick at one point). Kleven was also considered for a top 10-15 pick earlier on, but now I see him more in the 20's, so it's already happening.

    Obviously, I don't expect the Leafs to be picking in the 40's anyways, so it is still not quite the Leafs range. Most of the guys around the Leafs are smaller skill forwards or puck moving defensemen types if I were to guess right now.
     
  20. 4thline

    4thline Registered User

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    Yeah the guy peaked at 20. Was capable of playing quite effectively against the best of his age group at the WJC and was a viable AHL contributor but then regressed from there
     
  21. SeaOfBlue

    SeaOfBlue No Leaf Left Behind

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    He should have stayed in the NCAA IMO. Maybe does not make a difference, but 3 or 4 years of solid seasoning time before the AHL would have been good for him IMO. Too much too fast for him, and he never could catch up.
     
  22. WTFMAN99

    WTFMAN99 Registered User

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    Stability in a good development environment would have been good. Think he went to Miami?

    BC / BU would have been great, even if we had to wait a bit longer. Moving from NCAA to OHL to AHL all fast, never got to get any level of comfort but still think Sea is right in that there could be some off ice issues there.
     
  23. weems

    weems Registered User

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    Stranges is just a ridiculous skater wow.

     
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  24. Stand Witness

    Stand Witness JT

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    I was at the game last night and I wanted to come say that if there is any way Stranges falls to our pick he should be an easy choice. I was so impressed with his skating and he looked dynamic out there at times. When I watched him pivot like Skinner/Sid I knew this guy will eventually have an NHL career.
     
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  25. Faltorvo

    Faltorvo Registered User

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    Gauthier was a miss???

    pray tell who would have been the hits?
     

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