NHL.com Super 16: Ducks dominance raises many questions

[hatterson]

http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=700975&navid=nhl:topheads

The first part of the article looks at the Ducks and their impressive record currently, comparing it to last year

Before the Anaheim Ducks blasted the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday night, they had played 48 games this season, which is obviously the same number as the entirety of the 2012-13 campaign.

Anaheim was 30-12-6 last season, good for third in the NHL standings. The Ducks were nine points better through 48 games this season and are setting the pace in the League, six points clear of the Chicago Blackhawks.

Are the Ducks better this season, or better yet, why are they better?

They reference their Fenwick For percentages as well as PDO. It's nice to see the references right on NHL.com

There's also some other references sprinkled into the rest of the rankings.

Click to read more...

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I like how Corey uses the advanced analytics in his narrative, but that it's not *the* narrative.

That's how this stuff needs to be presented in order to get a foothold with a mainstream audience.

The Bruins' chart is interesting - I wish that he'd included the actual Fenwick Close values (I honestly don't know if the Bruins' FC is meaningfully different from the other seven or not, but that was my first follow-up question).

 

[hatterson]

I like how Corey uses the advanced analytics in his narrative, but that it's not *the* narrative.

That's how this stuff needs to be presented in order to get a foothold with a mainstream audience.

I could not agree more.

The Bruins' chart is interesting - I wish that he'd included the actual Fenwick Close values (I honestly don't know if the Bruins' FC is meaningfully different from the other seven or not, but that was my first follow-up question).

The chart was actually points percentage in games which the Fenwick Close was over 60% so overall fenwick for percentage wouldn't be meaningful. I suppose you could average out the FF% for the relevant games although the sample sizes are pretty small.

It also appears he's using 5 on 5 close data for individual games which further increases the sample size issues.

http://www.extraskater.com/team/los-angeles-kings/2013/gamelog

For example, This game they posted a 0% FF% for 5 on 5 close. Mainly because it was only for 6 minutes and it was 0 fenwick attempts for, 4 against. Then Chicago was up 2 goals and stayed there the rest of the game.

Or this game for the opposite effect. LA started strong and got a couple goals in the first. Resulting in only 12.2 minutes of 5 on 5 close time given that it's only defined as within one goal. Certainly LA may have changed their style slightly when going up two, but it seems more likely that it was just a shift in game momentum as opposed to the Kings going in a complete shell with a 2 goal lead and 4 minutes left in the first.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Exactly - the premise of the chart was that "these eight teams all had Fenwick Close of greater than 60%", but then "look at how the Bruins' points percentage differs from the other seven".

I'm curious if the Bruins' FC was in the ballpark of the other seven, or if it also stands out from the others (noting that they're all over the given threshold).

 

[hatterson]

I threw them all into excel and calculated 3 numbers. I also included the raw fenwick numbers

1. Average FF% based on each game being equal
2. Average FF% based on weight ice time
3. FF% based on summing total events in relevant games/times

Team|Avg FF%|Weighted Avg FF%|FF|FA|Raw FF%
Anaheim Ducks|65.55%|65.04%|196|103|67.55%
St. Louis Blues|68.58%|67.26%|237|155|67.33%
Tampa Bay Lightning|66.14%|65.65%|307|164|65.18%
Chicago Blackhawks|70.73%|68.24%|417|202|67.37%
San Jose Sharks|71.80%|68.50%|456|213|71.80%
Pittsburgh Penguins|67.39%|64.60%|281|154|64.60%
Los Angeles Kings|65.36%|65.81%|638|332|65.77%
Boston Bruins|67.00%|66.04%|348|181|65.78%

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Interesting - so they're right in the mix. Thanks!

 

[Captain Mittens*]

The Ducks are better than last year, healthier too.