GDT: NHL/BRUINS - FREE AGENT FIZZLE - Mod warning page 24

[The don godfather]

I predict brandon guance making the team next year. That kid is gonna be good and a steal for Donny.

 

[UncleRico]

here's the thing: I brought up Heinen in relation to Ferland to point out the double standard that I'm seeing here. Some people will do everything in their power to argue that Heinen is secretly a 50 point top 6 player & just needs to be given the chance while Ferland is the next Beleskey and is just another bottom 6 guy. I get that the advanced stats favor Heinen as does the age difference. I'm not even saying I'd prefer Ferland to Heinen for their respective deals. But I think the comparison is closer than a lot of people here will admit & that's driving me nuts.

Meanwhile what really bothers me is we could have had both. They are drastically different players, but both pretty versatile as wingers & both could have helped this team in very different ways.

Micheal Ferland - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Danton Heinen - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Look at the line combinations Ferland played with the last two years. In calgary he played majority of his time with Gaudreau and Monahan, Calgarys top line, for the entire season. Last season he playe the majority of his time with Aho and Terraveinen. He had 40 and 41 points the last two season playing with both teams top lines.

Now go look at Heiens top line combinations. Two years ago the majority of the time he played with a mixed bag of Backes and Riley nash. Last year he had a ton of line combinations with Backes, bjork, JFK, donato.

Starting when Heinen got hurt and started playing top line minutes and when Pasta got back and Heinen went to the Johansson/coyle line, Heinen had 21 points in 27 games. The previous season with Majority backes and Riley Nash he had 47 points.

Ferland has a HUGE edge in quality of linemates the past two seasons.

 

[JOKER 192]

With Clarkson on LTIR and if they take picks/prospects back in return, then yes. With about a million and change to spare

But then no money for the D. At least not both.

 

[bruins19]

That game was over at 0-1. It wasn’t happening after that.

As for the Ferland discussion...I’ll pass. I don’t feel the need to jump right now at the beginning of the summer...the Bruins should look for the right guy whenever that happens. While I’d like that to be before Game 1 of 82, if it’s at the deadline, that’s not the end of the world.

I’m not a big believer in this forced rush at the beginning of the summer...if you’re gonna make a big splash, okay, but after that...just wait...

I don’t agree that the game was over at 1-0. The ice was tilted in our favor for about the first 15 minutes, but we did not have anyone that could finish. Although I love Marchand’s skill set, I will never forgive him for a horrendous line change after getting beat that gave St. Louis numbers going into our zone and put us down 2-0. Rask looked rattled at that point and never seemed to recover. Our shots after that were long distance perimeter shots that were easily blocked or stopped. At the risk of mixing topics and being burned at the stake as a heretic (which is fine by me), I would have played Backes in game 7. He gave the Blues’ D fits in front of the net and occupied and annoyed them. That and some hits would have created some scoring opportunities.

 

[Rubber Biscuit]

If I knew that I would be a GM. I would have traded him in a package

It’s easy to sit here and say “I would replace him with a better player”

I don’t know why you’d ask for people’s thoughts if you were just going to leave it at “if I had the answer on how to do that I’d be a GM”

Like what kind of discussion were you expecting? People to debate whether or not they’d have a better player?

 

[Tbaybruin]

Ok fair enough, good post.

Lou you are a little to level headed for this board. You actually tell a guy good post when he gives a different view point. So refreshing. Love your insight and honesty

 

[Tbaybruin]

This is where you lose people though.

Heinen career averages per 82 games:

Goals: 13.7
Assists: 27.3
Points: 41.0

Ferland career averages per 82 games:

Goals: 15.1
Assists: 17.8
Points: 32.9


Yet you say Heinen is going to be 30-35 points per season and ferlands going to be 36-40.

Yes ferlands hits more, but heinen averages more blocked shots and takeaways per 82 games and averages less giveaways 82 games.

So Heinen averages more points, more blocked shots, more takeaways and less giveaways while getting paid 700k less per year.

Ask Grizz and Johansson who they would like to play against

 

[Tbaybruin]

LMFAO. You do realize Ferland was abysmal in the playoffs, right?

Oh ya Heinen was a star this playoffs ??

 

[Tbaybruin]

Micheal Ferland - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Danton Heinen - Fantasy Hockey Game Logs, Advanced Stats and more - Frozen Tools

Look at the line combinations Ferland played with the last two years. In calgary he played majority of his time with Gaudreau and Monahan, Calgarys top line, for the entire season. Last season he playe the majority of his time with Aho and Terraveinen. He had 40 and 41 points the last two season playing with both teams top lines.

Now go look at Heiens top line combinations. Two years ago the majority of the time he played with a mixed bag of Backes and Riley nash. Last year he had a ton of line combinations with Backes, bjork, JFK, donato.

Starting when Heinen got hurt and started playing top line minutes and when Pasta got back and Heinen went to the Johansson/coyle line, Heinen had 21 points in 27 games. The previous season with Majority backes and Riley Nash he had 47 points.

Ferland has a HUGE edge in quality of linemates the past two seasons.

How did Calgary do this playoffs? Do people realize how much teammates grow on the ice with a guy like Ferland? Ask a high end hockey player.

 

[BruinsFanSince94]

Oh ya Heinen was a star this playoffs ??

Heinen's playoff > Ferland's playoff

 

[bbfan419]

Heinen's playoff > Ferland's playoff

Ferland was also injured though.

 

[Dizzay]

Heinen is likely a better all around player than Ferland.
Ferland is more the type of player we're lacking here.
Sweeney: Backes + Beleskey= gun shy signing any power forwards.
I get it.

 

[danpantz]

Ask Grizz and Johansson who they would like to play against

Probably Ferland because a lot more goals get scored against him than Heinen.

 

[Gonzothe7thDman]

Even though Ferland got a reasonable cap hit, unfortunately we are one of the last teams that can afford to have another anchor contract at this point in time.

To me, it's not worth the risk.

 

[pemulis]

I don't have a subscription. Do they do an effective job of defining how they determine "expected value" and do you agree with their approach?

Great questions. Here is the info for the model:

Game Score is a linear weight model with the weights for each stat within it being derived according to the frequency of goals occurring from them and are as such:
Goals: 0.75
Primary Assists: 0.7
Secondary Assists: 0.55
Shots: 0.075
Blocks: 0.05
Penalty Differential: 0.15
Faceoff Differential: 0.01
5-on-5 Corsi Differential: 0.05
5-on-5 Goal Differential: 0.15
It uses data from each player’s last three seasons, with each component weighted by recency and regressed to the mean individually. That means that the weight for each prior season is different for goals than it is for shots or blocks (and different for forwards and defencemen), as is the regression factor. On top of that, there’s an age adjustment (using methods outlined here) performed at the start of each year that slowly lessens until the end of the season, as well as a small usage adjustment that factors in a player’s teammates and competition based on 5-on-5 Game Score.
From there, each player has a projection for each component going forward and that’s plugged into the Game Score formula to get a projected Game Score going forward. That’s then transformed into a wins above replacement rate (with replacement level being the 372nd forward and 186th defenceman) to create Game Score Value Added, or GSVA. That value is added up for each team based on the players in their starting lineup, and voila: team strength projections.

The author is up front about the limitations of his model and states that it is almost a fools errand, from my perspective there are lots of stochastic events that can impact any of the variables and impact the outcome. But I do like that it standardises an output across players and removes our inherent biases as spectators and fans. Although one can argue that these stats are also biased in some respect too.

Personally, I think weighting of the stats are an important component of comparing players across teams and divisions. Though I am wary of using a linear model on data that is likely not normally distributed and likely non-linearly related to the independent variables (but i'm not going to take the time to check the data, unless someone is willing to pay me). Also, by transforming the data a few times, it can have a confounding effect on the output (wins above replacement), but again, i'm not going to take the time to peer review the model. While definitely not perfect, I'd trust these outputs more than many of the hot takes on twitter. At the end of the day, some of the outputs make sense, particularly the tyler myers contract (awful) and the Perry contract (very good). I think that Johannson's contract is overrated here, and I think its a risk, and despite my reservations of it, the model seems to back it up. To sum up, there are always issues with predictive models, but I'm more comfortable with the known shortcomings of models compared to unknown biases among humans. (talk about waffling, huh?)

 

[Montecristo]

What’s to prevent Boston from forcing mcavoy to sign a 1 or 2 year contract for 3.5 million? All he can do is sit out right?

 

[Gee Wally]

What’s to prevent Boston from forcing mcavoy to sign a 1 or 2 year contract for 3.5 million? All he can do is sit out right?

the Bruins right now have the hammer based upon collective bargaining.

But having it and using it are two different things.
If they use it they better be prepared from for fallout from Team Mac and others watching.

 

[Number8]

Great questions. Here is the info for the model:



The author is up front about the limitations of his model and states that it is almost a fools errand, from my perspective there are lots of stochastic events that can impact any of the variables and impact the outcome. But I do like that it standardises an output across players and removes our inherent biases as spectators and fans. Although one can argue that these stats are also biased in some respect too.

Personally, I think weighting of the stats are an important component of comparing players across teams and divisions. Though I am wary of using a linear model on data that is likely not normally distributed and likely non-linearly related to the independent variables (but i'm not going to take the time to check the data, unless someone is willing to pay me). Also, by transforming the data a few times, it can have a confounding effect on the output (wins above replacement), but again, i'm not going to take the time to peer review the model. While definitely not perfect, I'd trust these outputs more than many of the hot takes on twitter. At the end of the day, some of the outputs make sense, particularly the tyler myers contract (awful) and the Perry contract (very good). I think that Johannson's contract is overrated here, and I think its a risk, and despite my reservations of it, the model seems to back it up. To sum up, there are always issues with predictive models, but I'm more comfortable with the known shortcomings of models compared to unknown biases among humans. (talk about waffling, huh?)

Thanks for pulling this together. Interesting take. It's like anything, one always needs to find a way to try and assess the overall pros and cons of any given situation/decision. Most of us like to trust our gut -- and, although obviously not infallible, I think in general that's a pretty good way to go in life. However, you have to be aware of biases we all carry and when you're spending millions of dollars you probably want the benefit of any kind of qualifier you can get as well!

 

[LouJersey]

Lou you are a little to level headed for this board. You actually tell a guy good post when he gives a different view point. So refreshing. Love your insight and honesty

Thank you! I love a good debate and know there are two sides and also know for sure my opinions aren't the be all end all. Instead of "He's another Beleskey" @finchster came back with a great retort to make me think a little differently about it. Good stuff

 

[Montecristo]

the Bruins right now have the hammer based upon collective bargaining.

But having it and using it are two different things.
If they use it they better be prepared from for fallout from Team Mac and others watching.

You could say they also used it on Krug and forced him to take a 1 year 1.4 million dollar deal and then another 1 year 3.4 million dollar deal. Krugs 1.4 was off of a 40 point season with another 10 in12 playoff games. No one seemed to be upset about that and Krug still eventually signed long term and seems to like the organization despite the early on hardball. The only way mcavoy taking a bridge deal will be an issue is if he decides to make it one.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

What’s to prevent Boston from forcing mcavoy to sign a 1 or 2 year contract for 3.5 million? All he can do is sit out right?

pissing him off and guaranteeing he leaves town the 1st chance he gets

 

[Montecristo]

pissing him off and guaranteeing he leaves town the 1st chance he gets

The first chance he gets is a ways away and if you come to him in 1 or 2 years with a 7 year 63 million dollar deal I’m pretty sure he’ll stop being pissed

 

[BlackFrancis]

The first chance he gets is a ways away and if you come to him in 1 or 2 years with a 7 year 63 million dollar deal I’m pretty sure he’ll stop being pissed

See: P.K. Subban

Montreal had to throw him out despite them being cheapskates with that bridge deal.

 

[Fenian24]

The first chance he gets is a ways away and if you come to him in 1 or 2 years with a 7 year 63 million dollar deal I’m pretty sure he’ll stop being pissed

Maybe, I doubt very much there will be any hometown discount where McAvoy is concerned. There is a part of me that expects him to head for Long Island or the Rangers as soon as he reaches UFA status, pissing him off may well guarantee it.

 

[TSBruins13]

I predict brandon guance making the team next year. That kid is gonna be good and a steal for Donny.

But you didn't say "Book It," so I don't believe it.