GDT: NHL 2024 Draft Lottery: Tuesday, May 7th, 6:30 pm | ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS, Fubo (live stream with free trial) (Habs pick 5th)
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First time watching a draft lottery, So the reveal for the #1 pick is the before last reveal? That means we have to wait all that time to hear Montréal #1.
I was planning on opening the stream, watching the first 30 seconds and then going back to my life after hearing “the first overall pick goes to... The Montréal Canadiens. ”
FinnHab
Registered User
Expecting us to drop to 7th and this board to have a complete meltdown
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I love SlafCaulZuki (pronounced Slafkovsky). Woof!
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River Meadow
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I think it would be fitting that Utah gets the pick with Arizona having the worst lottery luck in the current draft era. I took a deep dive to find all the winners in since the draft began in 1995:
3x Winners:
Edmonton: Hall in 2010, Yakupov in 2012, and some other guy in 2015.
NJ: moving up to 4 to get Larsson in 2011, Hischier in 2017, and Hughes in 2019.
Florida: 2002 (traded down to 3 and still got Bouwmeester), 2003 (traded down again to 3 and got Horton), 2014 to get Ekblad
Chicago: 1999 (moving up from #8 to #4, pick was traded to the Rangers), 2007 to get Kane, 2023 to get Bedard
2x Winners:
NYI: 2000 to get DiPietro and 2009 to get Tavares
Buffalo: 2018 to get Dahlin, 2021 to get Power
1x Winner:
Los Angeles: 1995: moved from 7 to 3 and took Berg
Ottawa: 1996 to take Phillips
Boston: 1997 to take Thornton
San Jose: 1998: won the lottery but TB had the option to switch picks, which they exercised. They drafted Stuart at 3.
Atlanta: 2001 to take Kovalchuk.
Washington: 2004 to get Ovechkin
Pittsburgh: 2005 to get Crosby
St. Louis: 2006 to get Johnson
TB: 2008 to get Stamkos
Colorado: 2013 to get MacKinnon
Toronto: 2016 to get Matthews
Rangers: 2020 to get Lafreniere
Montreal: 2022 to get unquestionably the best #1 since Lemieux, Slafkovsky
Soooo… having spent over an hour at 3 in the morning, I think the moral victory should go to Utah. Though they’ve been a tire fire for the majority of their existence since they left Winnipeg. I think the ranking for who should get the #1 pick should be as follows:
1. Anaheim: They've never won nor have they had the first pick. They've been a credible franchise since joining the league.
2. Columbus: If they'd never drafted first overall I'd give it to them. They did in '03 but they traded up to do so. They've had a miserable existence but not because of a lack of fan support or willingness. They're the lovable losers (unlike the Leafs who are deserving losers).
3. San Jose: The only time they won it they had to give it up. They've been a model franchise; they put good teams together and just were never able to take that last step. They dropped to 3 because they sold off all their assets, got rid of all their best players like bitches and tanked the dishonourable way (unlike us who tanked the honourable way: by just sucking).
4. Utah: They certainly get the sympathy vote given the aforementioned lottery luck. But as also said they were horribly mismanaged and now that they've moved they're like an expansion team. Should Vegas have won the lottery in 2017? It's 4 in the morning, logic doesn't count now. Shut up.
5. Montreal: Yeah yeah, I'm betraying the the tribe blah blah. Fact is we got 1st a few years ago, and have picked first, third, fifth, and at worst 7th this year since 2018. Plus we got a steal when our last dipstick was actually shrewd instead of moronic and drafted a fantastic player with the second last pick of the first round in 2021 (even though he may have been perceived as an a-hole at the time for doing so). We have a lot of assets and many more to come. I'm trying to be fair and objective. Bite me.
6 - 13 Who gives a crap.
14. Buffalo: Screw em. They won in 18 and 20, and have so much talent they can't keep it all. And they STILL suck. Bad enough the league rewarded incompetence with the Oilers (though I guess it's karma since the Oilers play in Edmonton. Gross), don't do it again with these idiots.
15. New Jersey: Screw em hard. They've won and gone first in 17 and 19. They took the next step last year and fell off a cliff this year. They've got top caliber players at each position. They don't deserve it.
16. Chicago: Screw them most, without lube. They got two great players when they won 1st overall. Especially last year when I really wanted Bedard. They were worse than San Jose in their dishonourability (?). Plus nothing happened to Wirtz when he tried to silence two of his own players that were sexually assaulted by HIS staff. Hope he's rotting in hell. New Jersey loses a first round pick for trying to structure Kovalchuk's contract to circumvent the cap (I believe eventually reduced to being the last pick in the first round). Ottawa loses a pick for its role in not relaying information about a NTC. Chicago gives their players a giant middle finger when they were sexually assaulted and they get a fine. *%!@ that. They should lose multiple first rounders and had been forced to sell the team. I guess I have strong feelings about this. They should go down to 4th and draft the biggest bust in the history of the game. Starting next year, they should have the last pick in every round until 2314.
Well, it's 4:30 and this took over two and a half hours. Another great life decision. I started by saying Utah deserved to win the lottery and talked myself into lowering them to fourth. And nobody is probably going to read it anyway, so a great use of my time. I'm real smrt. Goodnight.
3x Winners:
Edmonton: Hall in 2010, Yakupov in 2012, and some other guy in 2015.
NJ: moving up to 4 to get Larsson in 2011, Hischier in 2017, and Hughes in 2019.
Florida: 2002 (traded down to 3 and still got Bouwmeester), 2003 (traded down again to 3 and got Horton), 2014 to get Ekblad
Chicago: 1999 (moving up from #8 to #4, pick was traded to the Rangers), 2007 to get Kane, 2023 to get Bedard
2x Winners:
NYI: 2000 to get DiPietro and 2009 to get Tavares
Buffalo: 2018 to get Dahlin, 2021 to get Power
1x Winner:
Los Angeles: 1995: moved from 7 to 3 and took Berg
Ottawa: 1996 to take Phillips
Boston: 1997 to take Thornton
San Jose: 1998: won the lottery but TB had the option to switch picks, which they exercised. They drafted Stuart at 3.
Atlanta: 2001 to take Kovalchuk.
Washington: 2004 to get Ovechkin
Pittsburgh: 2005 to get Crosby
St. Louis: 2006 to get Johnson
TB: 2008 to get Stamkos
Colorado: 2013 to get MacKinnon
Toronto: 2016 to get Matthews
Rangers: 2020 to get Lafreniere
Montreal: 2022 to get unquestionably the best #1 since Lemieux, Slafkovsky
Soooo… having spent over an hour at 3 in the morning, I think the moral victory should go to Utah. Though they’ve been a tire fire for the majority of their existence since they left Winnipeg. I think the ranking for who should get the #1 pick should be as follows:
1. Anaheim: They've never won nor have they had the first pick. They've been a credible franchise since joining the league.
2. Columbus: If they'd never drafted first overall I'd give it to them. They did in '03 but they traded up to do so. They've had a miserable existence but not because of a lack of fan support or willingness. They're the lovable losers (unlike the Leafs who are deserving losers).
3. San Jose: The only time they won it they had to give it up. They've been a model franchise; they put good teams together and just were never able to take that last step. They dropped to 3 because they sold off all their assets, got rid of all their best players like bitches and tanked the dishonourable way (unlike us who tanked the honourable way: by just sucking).
4. Utah: They certainly get the sympathy vote given the aforementioned lottery luck. But as also said they were horribly mismanaged and now that they've moved they're like an expansion team. Should Vegas have won the lottery in 2017? It's 4 in the morning, logic doesn't count now. Shut up.
5. Montreal: Yeah yeah, I'm betraying the the tribe blah blah. Fact is we got 1st a few years ago, and have picked first, third, fifth, and at worst 7th this year since 2018. Plus we got a steal when our last dipstick was actually shrewd instead of moronic and drafted a fantastic player with the second last pick of the first round in 2021 (even though he may have been perceived as an a-hole at the time for doing so). We have a lot of assets and many more to come. I'm trying to be fair and objective. Bite me.
6 - 13 Who gives a crap.
14. Buffalo: Screw em. They won in 18 and 20, and have so much talent they can't keep it all. And they STILL suck. Bad enough the league rewarded incompetence with the Oilers (though I guess it's karma since the Oilers play in Edmonton. Gross), don't do it again with these idiots.
15. New Jersey: Screw em hard. They've won and gone first in 17 and 19. They took the next step last year and fell off a cliff this year. They've got top caliber players at each position. They don't deserve it.
16. Chicago: Screw them most, without lube. They got two great players when they won 1st overall. Especially last year when I really wanted Bedard. They were worse than San Jose in their dishonourability (?). Plus nothing happened to Wirtz when he tried to silence two of his own players that were sexually assaulted by HIS staff. Hope he's rotting in hell. New Jersey loses a first round pick for trying to structure Kovalchuk's contract to circumvent the cap (I believe eventually reduced to being the last pick in the first round). Ottawa loses a pick for its role in not relaying information about a NTC. Chicago gives their players a giant middle finger when they were sexually assaulted and they get a fine. *%!@ that. They should lose multiple first rounders and had been forced to sell the team. I guess I have strong feelings about this. They should go down to 4th and draft the biggest bust in the history of the game. Starting next year, they should have the last pick in every round until 2314.
Well, it's 4:30 and this took over two and a half hours. Another great life decision. I started by saying Utah deserved to win the lottery and talked myself into lowering them to fourth. And nobody is probably going to read it anyway, so a great use of my time. I'm real smrt. Goodnight.
Good morning all. It's lottery day.
1. Drink coffee
2. Hit the gym
3. Pray to the God's (not the Mitch Marner Gods)
4. Rub essential oils on my nipples (great idea whoever said that)
5. Burn insense throughout my house
6. Ask sweet Baby Jesus for forgiveness
7. Drink 13 beers
8. Pass out at 6 29 pm
9. Win lottery
10. Wake up after pissing myself and rejoice.
Happy lottery day my friends! Let's get cacklin for Macklin!
1. Drink coffee
2. Hit the gym
3. Pray to the God's (not the Mitch Marner Gods)
4. Rub essential oils on my nipples (great idea whoever said that)
5. Burn insense throughout my house
6. Ask sweet Baby Jesus for forgiveness
7. Drink 13 beers
8. Pass out at 6 29 pm
9. Win lottery
10. Wake up after pissing myself and rejoice.
Happy lottery day my friends! Let's get cacklin for Macklin!
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
Nah, we prepared for it. Maybe not 7th but 5th or 6th for sure. 17% chance at 1 or 2. At the end of the day, not much difference between 5-7 in this draft but could be a difference if a team leap frogs us and takes our target.
If our logo doesn't pop up at 7 or 6, that's a good thing.
24.5% chance at 5th
vs
17.1% chance at 1 or 2.
slybel
Registered User
From the HABS web page..... It does get more confusing.... 
As mentioned, Montreal has the fifth-best odds (8.5%) of winning the opening lottery, which would award the Canadiens the first-overall pick in 2024.
If another team wins the lottery, the Habs can still get the second-overall pick in the second draw... unless Philly has already locked it up.
In this scenario, the Philadelphia Flyers, who sit 12th with 2.5% odds in the Draft Lottery rankings, would need to win the first lottery and jump the maximum-allowed 10 spots to No. 2. The vacant first-overall spot would then automatically go to the San Jose Sharks, who have the best chance of winning this year's NHL Draft sweepstakes. If the Canadiens then win the second draw, the third selection would be theirs as picks 1 and 2 would already be accounted for.
It's highly improbable (and confusing), but there's still a chance (0.3%, to be precise).
The odds will be reset for each team heading into both draws.
As mentioned, Montreal has the fifth-best odds (8.5%) of winning the opening lottery, which would award the Canadiens the first-overall pick in 2024.
If another team wins the lottery, the Habs can still get the second-overall pick in the second draw... unless Philly has already locked it up.
In this scenario, the Philadelphia Flyers, who sit 12th with 2.5% odds in the Draft Lottery rankings, would need to win the first lottery and jump the maximum-allowed 10 spots to No. 2. The vacant first-overall spot would then automatically go to the San Jose Sharks, who have the best chance of winning this year's NHL Draft sweepstakes. If the Canadiens then win the second draw, the third selection would be theirs as picks 1 and 2 would already be accounted for.
It's highly improbable (and confusing), but there's still a chance (0.3%, to be precise).
The odds will be reset for each team heading into both draws.
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A bit of bad luck and we pick 7th. We should be picking 6th. Anything better than 6th is a win. We have that 1 in 6 chance of picking 1st or 2nd. I prefer 1st as that will make the selection easy.
If we don't win the lottery fortunately this draft according to King Bobby Mac and from our own discussions seems very fluid and really beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So packing an extra 1st , even a late one along with a high 2nd could get our 1st up spots.
Will be exciting tonight. Enjoy.
If we don't win the lottery fortunately this draft according to King Bobby Mac and from our own discussions seems very fluid and really beauty is in the eye of the beholder. So packing an extra 1st , even a late one along with a high 2nd could get our 1st up spots.
Will be exciting tonight. Enjoy.
Steve Shutt
Don't Poke the Bear
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Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I see it in a different way. If we don't win the lottery, it's likely we are picking 6 or 5. In this case, I see us potentially trading down to around 10 ish. That may add another late 1st and then we use those two 1st to move up to mid round ish. If Demidov & Lindstrom get picked before us, it's very possible Hughes banks on the D going and the forwards like Iggy, Catton, Eiserman fall to around 10. We trade down in a way where we get one of them for sure. That sort of thing.
However, I do think Gorton/Hughes are after guys who can help us now. For all we know, there is a handshake deal with the Ducks on Zegras and we are trading our pick for him if we don't win the lottery. Not sure if I like or dislike it but this could be a real possibility. 5-7 for Zegras.
Brother, that’s a little more than a bit…..that’s almost as bad as your wife leaving you for a used car salesman
So men have 14.2% chance of their wife leaving for a used car salesman. Interesting stat.
MarkovsKnee
Global Moderator
Yeah, no. They start at #16, and count down. That's why the draft order is on every page and is reversed from #16. That way everyone knows if the draft order changed.
If they reveal #11 and its not Buffalo then we know Buffalo won either #1 or #2. They flip each card til #3.
Then the final is flipping #1 since there's only 2 cards left.
You’re on a forum filled with grown men excited by debating Sennecke vs Iginla. I think it’s a decent estimate
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
What's dumb about this Tankathon predictor is I seem to be getting way more 7th spot hits vs 1/2 and the odds are pretty much the same. Ran it like 20 times and 7 popped up 4 times and there were no 1 or 2 hits.
so you wife leaves you for a used car salesman, this is not a bad thing for you. Now you know what great and smart wife you were married to. Just how long do you think she will be with this tiger of the sales industry? I give it 6 months max while you move on to a better pick then the first time, now you know what not to pick. You get your life back on track, you finances back on track and life has sunshine again on a beach with your new pick
In 25 tries, the majority of times, Montreal drops one spot to #6. Next, most frequently, they picket their own spot, #5.
First once, second once and 7th three times.
Wasn't a lucky simulation day...
First once, second once and 7th three times.
Wasn't a lucky simulation day...
Got a few no 3 and 1 at 2 and 1 at 1. Most were 5,6 and 7
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
I'd be particularly happy with winning the 2nd OA.
Without winning a lotto we can close the door on Demidov.
If we move down any, Lindstrom becomes very unlikely.
Then it's a matter of preference by the team, I'm hoping it's Catton or Sennecke.
Without winning a lotto we can close the door on Demidov.
If we move down any, Lindstrom becomes very unlikely.
Then it's a matter of preference by the team, I'm hoping it's Catton or Sennecke.
BergevinBurner
Registered User
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It'd be real interesting to see who Montreal goes with if they land 2nd overall. Demidov seems like the clear cut 2nd most talented player available at that point, but he doesn't have the size that our management seems to like going after.
WeThreeKings
Habs cup - its in the BAG
They'd go Demidov.. Arpon basically confirms that in his latest pods and articles.
Whether they'd be overtly aggressive to try to trade up to get him is another guess, but the staff is high on Demidov and they don't have any questions on his overall game the way they did on Michkov.
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