NHL 2017/18 Team Rankings

[willmma]

I've wondered about that. Elo, is made for chess as you know. A win is a win.its binary, a team scores 1 for a win and 0 for a loss.

I always struggled with the idea OT or SO wins. Do I still score them as 1? How about a loss, still a 0? I feel like keeping the binary scoring keeps it honest and keeps my influence away from the rankings. If I remove OT or SO wins then that will influence the results. I could use the NHL point system W=2, OTL & SOL=1, L=0. Or a 3 point system. In any case any of those will introduce my bias, or influence in the scoring.

That said, My code scrapes game results from the Internet, it can tell if a win is regulation or not regulation, but can't differentiate between OT or SO wins. I can for fun, have it ignore this wins and losses, and see how it looks. But I won't change the main rankings in this thread.

Here are the rankings with OT games removed

After 442 games played this season the rankings for Dec 30 2017 are:

#	Team	Elo Score
1	Tampa Bay Lightning	2814
2	Winnipeg Jets	2751
3	Boston Bruins	2736
4	New Jersey Devils	2667
5	Vegas Golden Knights	2665
6	Nashville Predators	2659
7	Los Angeles Kings	2583
8	Carolina Hurricanes	2577
9	San Jose Sharks	2558
10	St. Louis Blues	2554
11	Washington Capitals	2553
12	Toronto Maple Leafs	2545
13	New York Islanders	2534
14	Dallas Stars	2533
15	Anaheim Ducks	2521
16	Philadelphia Flyers	2507
17	Minnesota Wild	2500
18	Chicago Blackhawks	2491
19	Vancouver Canucks	2478
20	Colorado Avalanche	2475
21	Columbus Blue Jackets	2452
22	New York Rangers	2446
23	Detroit Red Wings	2419
24	Montreal Canadiens	2393
25	Calgary Flames	2389
26	Florida Panthers	2389
27	Edmonton Oilers	2375
28	Ottawa Senators	2372
29	Pittsburgh Penguins	2352
30	Buffalo Sabres	2146
31	Arizona Coyotes	1954

[TBODY]
[/TBODY]

Division	Avg Score
Central	2566
Metropolitan	2511
Atlantic	2476
Pacific	2440

[TBODY]
[/TBODY]

Conference	Avg Score
Western	2499
Eastern	2493

[TBODY]
[/TBODY]

 

[The Macho King]

Here are the rankings with OT games removed

After 442 games played this season the rankings for Dec 30 2017 are:

#	Team	Elo Score
1	Tampa Bay Lightning	2814
2	Winnipeg Jets	2751
3	Boston Bruins	2736
4	New Jersey Devils	2667
5	Vegas Golden Knights	2665
6	Nashville Predators	2659
7	Los Angeles Kings	2583
8	Carolina Hurricanes	2577
9	San Jose Sharks	2558
10	St. Louis Blues	2554
11	Washington Capitals	2553
12	Toronto Maple Leafs	2545
13	New York Islanders	2534
14	Dallas Stars	2533
15	Anaheim Ducks	2521
16	Philadelphia Flyers	2507
17	Minnesota Wild	2500
18	Chicago Blackhawks	2491
19	Vancouver Canucks	2478
20	Colorado Avalanche	2475
21	Columbus Blue Jackets	2452
22	New York Rangers	2446
23	Detroit Red Wings	2419
24	Montreal Canadiens	2393
25	Calgary Flames	2389
26	Florida Panthers	2389
27	Edmonton Oilers	2375
28	Ottawa Senators	2372
29	Pittsburgh Penguins	2352
30	Buffalo Sabres	2146
31	Arizona Coyotes	1954

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Division	Avg Score
Central	2566
Metropolitan	2511
Atlantic	2476
Pacific	2440

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Conference	Avg Score
Western	2499
Eastern	2493

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Thanks. I know ELO is binary but chess results in a lot of ties at high levels of play, which is why I was curious.

Boston seems to really benefit from the change. This may be something I'd keep in my back pocket before the playoffs as a predictor of series.

 

[willmma]

Updated for Jan 3

 

[Peggy]

Thanks. I know ELO is binary but chess results in a lot of ties at high levels of play, which is why I was curious.

Boston seems to really benefit from the change. This may be something I'd keep in my back pocket before the playoffs as a predictor of series.

Jets bounce from 9th to 2nd with the adjustment

 

[Filatov2Kovalev2Bonk]

Elo is super arousing, so thanks for doing this. Love these ranking principles.

 

[Bladerunner]

Wanted to give the OP a when I first saw this, but was involved in other threads.

Been familiar w/this from chess and other games for a long time. There are different "flavors" of ELO. I'm thinking you're using a fairly "vanilla" ELO. Anyway this is good material. I think the OT/SO games should be figured as (binary) W or L, i.e. the tie game aka "loser" point is not a factor in the ELO ratings.

 

[broinwhyteridge]

Jets still not getting respected.

 

[The Macho King]

Jets still not getting respected.

It's a simple math equation. There's no respect to it.

 

[GaryinPrague]

Overtime and shootouts should be removed( just dont count those games), since they are not in the playoffs and have no bearing on winning the cup

 

[CartographerNo611]

So is ELO just a really complicated way of looking at the standings?

 

[willmma]

Wanted to give the OP a when I first saw this, but was involved in other threads.
Been familiar w/this from chess and other games for a long time. There are different "flavors" of ELO. I'm thinking you're using a fairly "vanilla" ELO. Anyway this is good material. I think the OT/SO games should be figured as (binary) W or L, i.e. the tie game aka "loser" point is not a factor in the ELO ratings.

Thanks for the support. Whether OT/SO counts or not is a bit subjective. I personally am in agreement that they should. A win is better than nothing. A loss is worse than nothing.

Overtime and shootouts should be removed( just dont count those games), since they are not in the playoffs and have no bearing on winning the cup

I completely understand your point. But I also thing that dismissing them outright would be omitting a lot. Last year my Leafs lost a ton of OT/SO games. In my opinion that reflected on the quality and 'ranking' of the team. As of now I am sticking with counting them. But thanks for the input.

So is ELO just a really complicated way of looking at the standings?

The math is more complicated than normal standings. Normal standings earn 2 points for win and 0 for a loss (and then there is OTL and SOL) regardless of the teams playing. In this system teams gain points for wins and lose points for losses. This system also tries to account for the different team levels. Winning against Tampa Bay is much more difficult and more impressive than winning against the Coyotes and losing against Tampa is more understandable and forgiven than losing to the Coyotes.. This system rewards a team with more points for beating stronger teams and less for weaker teams. Conversely, you lose less points when losing to a stronger team and lose more points when losing to a weaker team. You can bet last night the Senators earned a lot more points than the Rangers.


Updated for Jan 7

 

[willmma]

Updated for Jan 8.
Wow. Vegas just took over Tampa for first place.

 

[willmma]

Updated for Jan 10

 

[Blue Shakehead]

Curious to know how Winnipeg could drop 4 spots since Christmas despite going 6-0-1 in that span?

 

[willmma]

Curious to know how Winnipeg could drop 4 spots since Christmas despite going 6-0-1 in that span?

Are comparing the list on the top of this thread to the list I posted separately on Dec 30th? Those two lists are not the same. Dec 30th was a one time tryout of omitting OT/SO games from the calculations.

The list on top of the thread is the "real" ranking list for this thread which includes all games including OT/SO games.

 

[willmma]

Okay so I ran some numbers.

I wanted to know how many times, on average does a team with a higher ELO score win a game. Not only that but also wanted to analyze how much the difference of their elo scores had an impact on the outcome.

So, I calculated the standard deviation (Z score) rounded to 1 decimal place on the elo scores for each team. Then I looked at who won each game in terms of higher Z score. And I also sorted the numbers by the difference of standard deviation scores (delta). And then I flagged each time the team with the higher standard deviation score won a game. Then I grouped the games by whole deviation delta point (0 to 0.9, 1 to 1.9...) I found the average times the team with the higher delta won for each group.

Here are my findings

Higher Z	Lower Z	Delta	Won?	Group Average
1.4	1.3	0.1	1
-1.3	-1.4	0.1	0
0.9	0.8	0.1	1
-0.5	-0.6	0.1	0
0.5	0.4	0.1	0
0.5	0.4	0.1	0
-0.8	-0.9	0.1	1
-0.6	-0.7	0.1	0
1	0.9	0.1	0
-0.4	-0.5	0.1	0
0.9	0.8	0.1	1
0.5	0.4	0.1	1
0	-0.1	0.1	0
0	-0.1	0.1	1
0	-0.1	0.1	1
0	-0.1	0.1	1
-0.1	-0.2	0.1	1
0.1	0	0.1	0
0	-0.1	0.1	1
-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0
0.2	0.1	0.1	1
-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0
0.1	0	0.1	1
-0.1	-0.2	0.1	1
-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0
0	-0.1	0.1	1
0	-0.1	0.1	1
-0.3	-0.4	0.1	1
0.4	0.3	0.1	1
1.1	1	0.1	1
1.1	1	0.1	0
-1.4	-1.5	0.1	1
1.8	1.7	0.1	1
0.8	0.7	0.1	1
-0.4	-0.6	0.2	1
0.6	0.4	0.2	1
-0.4	-0.6	0.2	1
0.6	0.4	0.2	0
1	0.8	0.2	1
0.6	0.4	0.2	1
-0.5	-0.7	0.2	0
-1.1	-1.3	0.2	1
0.3	0.1	0.2	0
0.3	0.1	0.2	0
0.3	0.1	0.2	1
-0.1	-0.3	0.2	1
-0.1	-0.3	0.2	0
0	-0.2	0.2	0
0.1	-0.1	0.2	1
0.5	0.3	0.2	1
0.5	0.3	0.2	1
0.2	0	0.2	1
0.1	-0.1	0.2	0
-0.2	-0.4	0.2	0
0.2	0	0.2	0
0.2	0	0.2	1
0.4	0.2	0.2	0
0.1	-0.1	0.2	0
0.4	0.2	0.2	1
0	-0.2	0.2	1
-0.2	-0.4	0.2	1
0.5	0.3	0.2	1
0	-0.2	0.2	1
-0.6	-0.8	0.2	0
0.8	0.6	0.2	1
0.9	0.7	0.2	1
0.9	0.7	0.2	0
-0.7	-0.9	0.2	0
0.8	0.6	0.2	1
-0.4	-0.7	0.3	0
-0.4	-0.7	0.3	0
0.7	0.4	0.3	1
0	-0.3	0.3	1
0.3	0	0.3	1
0.3	0	0.3	1
-0.3	-0.6	0.3	1
0.3	0	0.3	0
0.5	0.2	0.3	1
0	-0.3	0.3	0
0.6	0.3	0.3	1
0.3	0	0.3	0
0.5	0.2	0.3	0
0.3	0	0.3	1
0.5	0.2	0.3	1
0	-0.3	0.3	1
0.5	0.2	0.3	0
0.3	0	0.3	0
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
0.1	-0.2	0.3	0
1.6	1.3	0.3	1
0.2	-0.1	0.3	0
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
-0.7	-1	0.3	1
0.8	0.5	0.3	1
0.9	0.6	0.3	1
-0.5	-0.8	0.3	1
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
0.4	0.1	0.3	0
0.2	-0.1	0.3	1
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
-0.6	-0.9	0.3	0
-0.6	-0.9	0.3	0
0.1	-0.2	0.3	0
0.4	0.1	0.3	1
-0.8	-1.1	0.3	1
-2.1	-2.5	0.4	1
1.4	1	0.4	1
0.6	0.2	0.4	0
1	0.6	0.4	0
0.3	-0.1	0.4	1
0.8	0.4	0.4	0
0.1	-0.3	0.4	0
0	-0.4	0.4	1
0.3	-0.1	0.4	1
0.2	-0.2	0.4	1
0.3	-0.1	0.4	0
0	-0.4	0.4	0
0.4	0	0.4	1
0.3	-0.1	0.4	1
0.1	-0.3	0.4	0
-0.6	-1	0.4	1
0.4	0	0.4	0
0.1	-0.3	0.4	1
-0.5	-0.9	0.4	1
-0.5	-0.9	0.4	1
0.5	0.1	0.4	0
0.4	0	0.4	0
0	-0.4	0.4	0
0.9	0.5	0.4	1
0.4	0	0.4	1
-0.1	-0.5	0.4	1
0.4	0	0.4	1
0.5	0.1	0.4	0
0	-0.4	0.4	0
1.1	0.7	0.4	0
1.6	1.2	0.4	0
1.4	0.9	0.5	1
0.7	0.2	0.5	1
0.1	-0.4	0.5	0
0.1	-0.4	0.5	1
0.5	0	0.5	0
0.2	-0.3	0.5	0
-0.4	-0.9	0.5	0
-0.3	-0.8	0.5	1
1.5	1	0.5	0
1.3	0.8	0.5	0
0.2	-0.3	0.5	0
0	-0.5	0.5	1
1.5	1	0.5	1
0.4	-0.1	0.5	0
0.1	-0.4	0.5	0
0.5	0	0.5	0
0.2	-0.3	0.5	0
0.1	-0.4	0.5	1
-0.5	-1	0.5	1
2.1	1.6	0.5	1
-0.4	-0.9	0.5	0
0.2	-0.3	0.5	0
-0.4	-0.9	0.5	0
0.5	0	0.5	1
0.5	0	0.5	1
0.5	0	0.5	1
0.1	-0.4	0.5	1
0.8	0.3	0.5	0
0.4	-0.1	0.5	1
1.8	1.3	0.5	0
0.5	0	0.5	0
0.6	0.1	0.5	1
0.4	-0.1	0.5	0
0.5	0	0.5	0
0.5	0	0.5	0
-0.6	-1.1	0.5	1
-0.6	-1.1	0.5	0
-1.1	-1.7	0.6	1
1.7	1.1	0.6	1
0.6	0	0.6	1
0.5	-0.1	0.6	0
1.5	0.9	0.6	1
0.6	0	0.6	0
0.3	-0.3	0.6	0
0.6	0	0.6	0
0.3	-0.3	0.6	1
1	0.4	0.6	0
1.2	0.6	0.6	0
0.5	-0.1	0.6	0
0	-0.6	0.6	1
0.3	-0.3	0.6	0
0.1	-0.5	0.6	1
-0.1	-0.7	0.6	1
-0.4	-1	0.6	1
0	-0.6	0.6	1
0.7	0.1	0.6	1
0.7	0.1	0.6	1
0.5	-0.1	0.6	0
0.7	0.1	0.6	0
0.7	0.1	0.6	0
0.3	-0.3	0.6	0
0	-0.6	0.6	0
1	0.4	0.6	0
0.6	0	0.6	0
0.6	0	0.6	0
0.1	-0.5	0.6	0
0.1	-0.5	0.6	1
0	-0.6	0.6	1
-0.7	-1.3	0.6	1
0.2	-0.4	0.6	1
1.1	0.5	0.6	1
1.1	0.5	0.6	0
0.9	0.3	0.6	0
0.9	0.3	0.6	1
1.1	0.5	0.6	0
0.9	0.3	0.6	1
0.8	0.2	0.6	1
0.8	0.2	0.6	1
0.7	0	0.7	0
0.7	0	0.7	0
0.7	0	0.7	0
0.6	-0.1	0.7	1
0.7	0	0.7	0
1.7	1	0.7	0
-0.2	-0.9	0.7	1
0.7	0	0.7	0
0.2	-0.5	0.7	1
0.3	-0.4	0.7	0
0.7	0	0.7	0
-1	-1.7	0.7	1
0.7	0	0.7	0
0.3	-0.4	0.7	0
0.2	-0.5	0.7	1
0.7	0	0.7	1
1.2	0.5	0.7	1
1.4	0.7	0.7	1
1.4	0.7	0.7	0
0.2	-0.5	0.7	0
0.3	-0.4	0.7	0
0.4	-0.3	0.7	0
-0.5	-1.2	0.7	1
1.5	0.8	0.7	1
0.5	-0.2	0.7	0
0.7	0	0.7	0
0	-0.7	0.7	1
0.7	0	0.7	1
1.1	0.4	0.7	1
1.3	0.6	0.7	1
-0.6	-1.3	0.7	0
0.8	0.1	0.7	0
0.7	-0.1	0.8	0
-0.4	-1.2	0.8	1
0.7	-0.1	0.8	1
0.7	-0.1	0.8	0
0.8	0	0.8	0
-0.7	-1.5	0.8	0
1.8	1	0.8	0
0.5	-0.3	0.8	1
1.3	0.5	0.8	1
-0.5	-1.3	0.8	1
0.3	-0.5	0.8	1
0	-0.8	0.8	0
-0.3	-1.1	0.8	0
0.8	0	0.8	0
0.2	-0.6	0.8	0
-0.3	-1.1	0.8	1
1.1	0.3	0.8	0
0.2	-0.6	0.8	0
0.5	-0.3	0.8	1
0.6	-0.2	0.8	1
1.8	1	0.8	0
-0.2	-1	0.8	1
0.9	0.1	0.8	0
0.5	-0.3	0.8	1
1.3	0.5	0.8	1
-0.5	-1.3	0.8	1
0.6	-0.2	0.8	1
1	0.2	0.8	0
1.3	0.5	0.8	0
0.3	-0.5	0.8	1
0.2	-0.6	0.8	1
0.8	0	0.8	0
0.8	0	0.8	1
1.8	1	0.8	1
0.2	-0.6	0.8	0
0.2	-0.7	0.9	1
0.2	-0.7	0.9	0
0.3	-0.6	0.9	0
-1	-1.9	0.9	0
0.3	-0.6	0.9	0
0.3	-0.6	0.9	1
-0.3	-1.2	0.9	0
0.6	-0.3	0.9	1
0	-0.9	0.9	1
0	-0.9	0.9	0
0.9	0	0.9	1
0.9	0	0.9	1
1.3	0.4	0.9	1
0	-0.9	0.9	0
0.8	-0.1	0.9	1
-0.1	-1	0.9	1
0	-0.9	0.9	0
0.8	-0.1	0.9	1
0.5	-0.4	0.9	0
0.9	0	0.9	1
0	-0.9	0.9	1
0.8	-0.1	0.9	1
0.8	-0.1	0.9	0
0.9	0	0.9	1
1.6	0.7	0.9	0
-0.2	-1.1	0.9	0
-0.7	-1.6	0.9	1
1.1	0.2	0.9	0
-1.3	-2.2	0.9	1	53%
1.4	0.4	1	0
-0.9	-1.9	1	1
1	0	1	0
0.5	-0.5	1	0
1	0	1	1
1.1	0.1	1	1
0.9	-0.1	1	1
0.8	-0.2	1	1
-0.3	-1.3	1	0
0.1	-0.9	1	1
0.4	-0.6	1	0
0.9	-0.1	1	1
0.7	-0.3	1	0
-0.3	-1.3	1	1
-1	-2	1	1
0.7	-0.3	1	0
0.9	-0.1	1	0
0.9	-0.1	1	1
0.6	-0.4	1	1
0.2	-0.8	1	1
0	-1	1	0
1.2	0.2	1	1
-0.3	-1.3	1	1
0.3	-0.7	1	0
0.9	-0.1	1	1
1.5	0.5	1	1
1.1	0.1	1	1
0.2	-0.8	1	0
1	0	1	0
0.1	-0.9	1	1
2	1	1	0
-1.2	-2.3	1.1	1
1.4	0.3	1.1	0
1.1	0	1.1	1
0.7	-0.4	1.1	0
0.4	-0.7	1.1	0
1.1	0	1.1	1
-0.4	-1.5	1.1	1
0.3	-0.8	1.1	0
0.7	-0.4	1.1	0
0.1	-1	1.1	1
0.2	-0.9	1.1	1
1	-0.1	1.1	0
-0.2	-1.3	1.1	1
0.4	-0.7	1.1	1
1	-0.1	1.1	1
0	-1.1	1.1	1
0.9	-0.2	1.1	1
0.8	-0.3	1.1	1
1.1	0	1.1	0
0.4	-0.7	1.1	1
1.6	0.5	1.1	1
-1	-2.1	1.1	0
1.1	0	1.1	0
0.7	-0.4	1.1	1
0.4	-0.7	1.1	1
0.8	-0.3	1.1	0
1.2	0	1.2	0
0	-1.2	1.2	0
0	-1.2	1.2	0
0.5	-0.7	1.2	1
0.7	-0.5	1.2	0
-0.1	-1.3	1.2	0
0.7	-0.5	1.2	0
0	-1.2	1.2	0
1.2	0	1.2	1
1.4	0.2	1.2	0
0	-1.2	1.2	0
-0.7	-1.9	1.2	1
1.2	0	1.2	0
0.4	-0.8	1.2	0
0.8	-0.4	1.2	1
1.8	0.6	1.2	0
1.6	0.4	1.2	0
0.8	-0.4	1.2	1
0.4	-0.8	1.2	1
0.7	-0.6	1.3	1
0.7	-0.6	1.3	1
-0.6	-1.9	1.3	1
1.4	0.1	1.3	1
-1	-2.3	1.3	0
0.7	-0.6	1.3	1
1.3	0	1.3	0
1.1	-0.2	1.3	1
-0.3	-1.6	1.3	0
0.5	-0.8	1.3	1
1.1	-0.2	1.3	0
1	-0.3	1.3	1
0.8	-0.5	1.3	0
2	0.7	1.3	1
-0.2	-1.5	1.3	1
0.8	-0.5	1.3	1
0.4	-0.9	1.3	0
1	-0.3	1.3	1
0	-1.3	1.3	1
0.3	-1	1.3	1
0	-1.3	1.3	1
-0.7	-2	1.3	1
1.3	0	1.3	1
1.1	-0.2	1.3	0
0.1	-1.2	1.3	0
1	-0.3	1.3	0
0	-1.3	1.3	0
0.2	-1.1	1.3	1
0.7	-0.7	1.4	1
0.7	-0.7	1.4	1
1.4	0	1.4	1
1	-0.4	1.4	1
0.4	-1	1.4	0
1.4	0	1.4	1
1.7	0.3	1.4	1
1.7	0.3	1.4	1
1.4	0	1.4	0
0.8	-0.6	1.4	1
1.9	0.5	1.4	0
0.6	-0.8	1.4	1
0.6	-0.8	1.4	0
0.6	-0.8	1.4	1
0.7	-0.7	1.4	1
1.2	-0.2	1.4	1
1.2	-0.2	1.4	0
1.4	0	1.4	0
1.2	-0.2	1.4	0
0.8	-0.6	1.4	1
0.6	-0.8	1.4	1
1.7	0.3	1.4	1
0.3	-1.1	1.4	1
0.1	-1.3	1.4	1
0	-1.5	1.5	1
1.1	-0.4	1.5	0
1.5	0	1.5	0
1.3	-0.2	1.5	0
0	-1.5	1.5	0
1.5	0	1.5	1
0.4	-1.1	1.5	0
1.1	-0.4	1.5	0
1.2	-0.3	1.5	1
0.2	-1.3	1.5	1
0.9	-0.6	1.5	1
1.5	0	1.5	1
1	-0.5	1.5	0
0.9	-0.6	1.5	1
0.7	-0.8	1.5	0
0.2	-1.4	1.6	0
1.4	-0.2	1.6	1
0.8	-0.8	1.6	0
0.8	-0.8	1.6	1
1.3	-0.3	1.6	0
1.5	-0.1	1.6	1
0.6	-1	1.6	0
0	-1.6	1.6	0
1.5	-0.1	1.6	0
0.9	-0.7	1.6	1
1.2	-0.4	1.6	1
0.4	-1.2	1.6	1
2.3	0.6	1.7	1
0	-1.7	1.7	1
1.5	-0.2	1.7	0
1.8	0.1	1.7	1
1.7	0	1.7	0
0.5	-1.2	1.7	0
1	-0.7	1.7	1
1	-0.7	1.7	1
-0.2	-1.9	1.7	1
0.2	-1.5	1.7	1
0.3	-1.4	1.7	0
0.5	-1.2	1.7	1
-0.2	-1.9	1.7	1
1.9	0.2	1.7	1
-0.4	-2.1	1.7	1
-0.5	-2.2	1.7	1
-0.4	-2.1	1.7	1
-0.4	-2.1	1.7	1
0.6	-1.2	1.8	0
0.6	-1.2	1.8	0
0.6	-1.2	1.8	1
1.2	-0.6	1.8	0
1.2	-0.6	1.8	0
0.4	-1.4	1.8	0
0.3	-1.5	1.8	1
-0.2	-2	1.8	0
2	0.2	1.8	0
0.8	-1	1.8	0
1.1	-0.7	1.8	1
0.7	-1.1	1.8	1
1.6	-0.2	1.8	1
1.7	-0.1	1.8	1
1	-0.8	1.8	1
0.3	-1.5	1.8	0
1	-0.8	1.8	0
1.5	-0.3	1.8	0
1.8	0	1.8	1
-0.4	-2.2	1.8	1
-0.4	-2.2	1.8	1
0.6	-1.3	1.9	1
1	-0.9	1.9	0
-0.1	-2	1.9	1
1.2	-0.7	1.9	1
1.2	-0.7	1.9	0
1.7	-0.2	1.9	0
1.5	-0.4	1.9	1
0.9	-1	1.9	0
1.3	-0.6	1.9	0
1.9	0	1.9	1
1.9	0	1.9	1
1.6	-0.3	1.9	0
0.8	-1.1	1.9	0
0.8	-1.1	1.9	1	57%
-0.3	-2.3	2	1
2.3	0.3	2	1
1	-1	2	1
1	-1	2	1
-0.7	-2.7	2	0
2.4	0.4	2	0
0.3	-1.7	2	1
2.2	0.2	2	0
0.9	-1.1	2	1
0	-2	2	1
-0.1	-2.1	2	1
-0.4	-2.4	2	0
0.7	-1.3	2	1
0.8	-1.2	2	0
2.1	0	2.1	0
0	-2.1	2.1	1
1.5	-0.6	2.1	1
1.5	-0.6	2.1	1
0.6	-1.5	2.1	1
-0.3	-2.4	2.1	0
2.1	0	2.1	1
1.3	-0.8	2.1	0
1	-1.1	2.1	0
1.1	-1	2.1	1
1.3	-0.8	2.1	1
0.5	-1.6	2.1	0
0	-2.1	2.1	1
1.9	-0.2	2.1	1
1	-1.1	2.1	1
1.9	-0.3	2.2	0
0.3	-1.9	2.2	1
-0.2	-2.4	2.2	1
-0.2	-2.4	2.2	1
0.9	-1.3	2.2	1
1.2	-1	2.2	1
1.1	-1.1	2.2	0
2.1	-0.1	2.2	0
0.9	-1.3	2.2	0
0.1	-2.1	2.2	1
-0.4	-2.6	2.2	0
0.2	-2	2.2	1
1.2	-1.1	2.3	0
1.1	-1.2	2.3	1
-0.6	-2.9	2.3	0
0.8	-1.5	2.3	0
0.4	-1.9	2.3	0
0.9	-1.4	2.3	0
0.2	-2.1	2.3	0
0.4	-2	2.4	1
0.1	-2.3	2.4	1
2.1	-0.3	2.4	1
1.2	-1.2	2.4	0
0	-2.4	2.4	1
1.2	-1.2	2.4	0
-0.1	-2.5	2.4	0
-0.1	-2.5	2.4	1
2.2	-0.2	2.4	1
1.1	-1.3	2.4	1
2	-0.5	2.5	1
1.5	-1	2.5	0
0	-2.5	2.5	1
-0.1	-2.6	2.5	1
1.9	-0.6	2.5	0
0.2	-2.3	2.5	1
1.3	-1.3	2.6	1
0	-2.6	2.6	1
1.7	-0.9	2.6	1
0	-2.6	2.6	1
1.5	-1.1	2.6	1
0.9	-1.8	2.7	1
0.9	-1.8	2.7	1
2.1	-0.6	2.7	1
0.6	-2.1	2.7	1
1.9	-0.8	2.7	1
1.2	-1.6	2.8	1
1.5	-1.3	2.8	1
0.3	-2.5	2.8	0
0.8	-2	2.8	0
0.5	-2.3	2.8	1
1.7	-1.2	2.9	1	65%
1.8	-1.2	3	0
0.3	-2.7	3	1
1	-2	3	1
0.9	-2.1	3	1
1.7	-1.4	3.1	1
2.3	-0.8	3.1	0
0.9	-2.2	3.1	0
2.4	-0.8	3.2	0
1.6	-1.7	3.3	0
0.4	-2.9	3.3	1
1	-2.3	3.3	0
1.3	-2.1	3.4	0
1.4	-2.1	3.5	1
2.1	-1.4	3.5	0
1.7	-1.9	3.6	0
1.2	-2.4	3.6	0
1.2	-2.5	3.7	1
1.9	-1.9	3.8	1
1.6	-2.2	3.8	1	47%
1.9	-2.7	4.6	1	100%

So
In 311 games where teams with less than 1 standard deviation between them, the team with the higher ELO won 53%
In 208 games where teams with 1 to 2 standard deviation between them, the team with the higher ELO won 57%
In 80 games where teams with 2 to 3 standard deviation between them, the team with the higher ELO won 65%
In 19 games where teams with 3 to 4 standard deviation between them, the team with the higher ELO won 47%
in 1 game where teams with greater than 4 standard deviation between them, the team with the higher ELO won 100%

 

[The Macho King]

The 3 to 4 standard deviations stat is interesting because of how much an outlier it is. I'd guess there's a sample size issue there.

 

[Name Nameless]

Fun stuff. But giving points to OT or even shootout outcomes would be to mix rapid and blitz into the classical rating. The chess-world has their own ranking for those. So just to nag you with one more person saying you should count draws after regulation as draws. Sorry

 

[The Macho King]

Fun stuff. But giving points to OT or even shootout outcomes would be to mix rapid and blitz into the classical rating. The chess-world has their own ranking for those. So just to nag you with one more person saying you should count draws after regulation as draws. Sorry

I agree. I understand that we give points for OT wins and shootout wins and the like, but the fact is - we already have standings for those ratings. I think this has potential to be *more* interesting as a strength metric because it's different.

 

[Name Nameless]

I agree. I understand that we give points for OT wins and shootout wins and the like, but the fact is - we already have standings for those ratings. I think this has potential to be *more* interesting as a strength metric because it's different.

Yes. So I am hoping for a table with regulation ELO. But please don't just remove the overtime games. Getting a draw against a better team should give points, and lose points for the better team, just like it is in chess.

 

[Nosferatu]

Did Winnipeg change attitude and/or luck with the Oilers on the off season?

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

Did Winnipeg change attitude and/or luck with the Oilers on the off season?

It's all Matt Hendricks.
All of it.

 

[Stat Guy]

Great job maintaining this! I'm a big fan of ELO

I would just change your "K" for Shootout and OT wins.

K=100 for regulation
K=50 for OT
K-25 for SO

In 2014 I tinkered with ELO, and related it to Corsi.
Unfortunatly it doesn't look like the threads survived the forum change. I'll see if I can did up my old work.

 

[Name Nameless]

Great job maintaining this! I'm a big fan of ELO

I would just change your "K" for Shootout and OT wins.

K=100 for regulation
K=50 for OT
K-25 for SO

In 2014 I tinkered with ELO, and related it to Corsi.
Unfortunatly it doesn't look like the threads survived the forum change. I'll see if I can did up my old work.

Not so good on the actual ELO-formula, as in I don't know it.

But unless I get what you are saying here wrong, I'm fairly certain both you and OP gets this wrong. A good team being taken to overtime by a bad team should lose points to the bad team. In chess, there is no way a 2200 - player would win or even get a draw against a 2700-player. The fact the bad teams in NHL can get draws (in regulation) or even win over the good teams to me clearly implies the rating differentials here are inflated. And to me, it is fairly obvious a good model would give points to a bad team for a draw in regulation. It could be it would be right to give less penalty for winning in OT than for losing in OT, but if the model says the higher ranked team gets points for winning in OT or even SO against a bad team, the model is not very interesting.

 

[willmma]

Not so good on the actual ELO-formula, as in I don't know it.

But unless I get what you are saying here wrong, I'm fairly certain both you and OP gets this wrong. A good team being taken to overtime by a bad team should lose points to the bad team. In chess, there is no way a 2200 - player would win or even get a draw against a 2700-player. The fact the bad teams in NHL can get draws (in regulation) or even win over the good teams to me clearly implies the rating differentials here are inflated. And to me, it is fairly obvious a good model would give points to a bad team for a draw in regulation. It could be it would be right to give less penalty for winning in OT than for losing in OT, but if the model says the higher ranked team gets points for winning in OT or even SO against a bad team, the model is not very interesting.

You are correct,the numbers numbers are inflated. In chess they usually use a K factor of 24, which determines how many points a team can gain with a win, or lose with a loss. So if Tampa has 90% chance to beat Arizona, and they do then they will earn 10% of 24= 2.4 points

Chess also changes K to 10 after a certain threshold, so Tampa would in fact only earn 1 point.

I made two decisions when I started this. K is 100 and doesn't change. So Tampa would earn 10 points. This increases the spread and makes seeing differences between teams easier. So it looks inflated compared to chess, by four times.
Ultimately K factor has no real bearing on the rankings.

The other decision I made was to score a W, OTW, and SOW as 1. And an L, OTL and SOL as 0.

I don't agree with omitting OT and SO games out right.

A) I can keep scoring as is (1 an 0)
B) Or count OT and SO as a draw (1, 0.5 and 0)
C) Or use a 3 point system so (1 for W, 0.66 for OTW and SOW, 0.33 for OTL and SOL, and 0 for L)

Any of these will produce good results. And non of these will make every body happy. And this discussion will never end.

So, what do you guys believe is the best option to handle OT SO games? A, B, or C?