NHL 2017/18 Team Rankings

[willmma]

HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR 2018/19

I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO wins are lesser than regular wins (half a win). And a an OT/SO loss is half a loss.

After 35 games played this season the rankings for Oct 09 2018 are:

#	Team	Elo Score
1	Colorado Avalanche	2600
2	Dallas Stars	2600
3	Boston Bruins	2597
4	Nashville Predators	2596
5	Carolina Hurricanes	2564
6	Montreal Canadiens	2554
7	Anaheim Ducks	2552
8	Calgary Flames	2550
9	New Jersey Devils	2550
10	Buffalo Sabres	2546
11	New York Islanders	2536
12	Los Angeles Kings	2525
13	Tampa Bay Lightning	2525
14	Chicago Blackhawks	2501
15	Philadelphia Flyers	2500
16	Winnipeg Jets	2500
17	Toronto Maple Leafs	2484
18	Ottawa Senators	2482
19	Florida Panthers	2475
20	Washington Capitals	2475
21	Pittsburgh Penguins	2471
22	Columbus Blue Jackets	2468
23	San Jose Sharks	2468
24	Edmonton Oilers	2450
25	Vancouver Canucks	2450
26	St. Louis Blues	2436
27	Vegas Golden Knights	2429
28	Minnesota Wild	2425
29	Detroit Red Wings	2416
30	Arizona Coyotes	2407
31	New York Rangers	2368

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Division	Avg Score
Central	2522
Atlantic	2509
Metropolitan	2491
Pacific	2478

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Conference	Avg Score
Eastern	2500
Western	2499

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Cheers

Click to read more...

 

[The Macho King]

How accurate has ELO been in the past as a predictor of future success? Not criticizing - legitimately curious.

 

[ijuka]

This is a very interesting perspective. Thank you for doing this, it's appreciated.

 

[Frosty415]

Cool list, nice to see Vegas high up there too

 

[willmma]

How accurate has ELO been in the past as a predictor of future success? Not criticizing - legitimately curious.

I checked a few years ago. Found it to be 50/50 Just as good as a coin flip.

 

[The Macho King]

I checked a few years ago. Found it to be 50/50 Just as good as a coin flip.

Yeah from what I've read forward-looking predictive rankings are tough. I mean, ELO isn't supposed to be be definitive, just probabilistic, so maybe it does a decent job when you control for it, but there are so many potential confounding factors.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Interesting. I like the concept.

 

[willmma]

updated.

 

[BrettHullsToe]

I wish the Stars were back in the Pacific - 3 of the top 4 teams being from the Central is tough.

Speaking of which, is it too much extra work to add an average ELO per division and conference?

 

[willmma]

I wish the Stars were back in the Pacific - 3 of the top 4 teams being from the Central is tough.

Speaking of which, is it too much extra work to add an average ELO per division and conference?

I updated the code to show Division and Conference averages.

 

[BrettHullsToe]

I updated the code to show Division and Conference averages.

Awesome, thanks!

 

[KPower]

Buffalo too high.

 

[Mortivore]

Interesting to implement ELO. Mostly know it from chess, will be fun to see how the standings progress.

 

[willmma]

Buffalo too high.

lol

 

[DancesWithWookies]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.

 

[MajorLeafsFan]

Good to know my two favorites are in the top 10

 

[libertarian]

I know I will probably get burned for this, but I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.


For the purposes of my calculations each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

After 415 games played this season the rankings for Dec 05 2017, are:

1. Nashville Predators 2731
2. Tampa Bay Lightning 2724
3. St. Louis Blues 2717
4. Winnipeg Jets 2697
5. Columbus Blue Jackets 2685
6. New York Islanders 2656
7. Los Angeles Kings 2650
8. Dallas Stars 2625
9. Toronto Maple Leafs 2607
10. Vegas Golden Knights 2602
11. Washington Capitals 2595
12. New Jersey Devils 2592
13. Calgary Flames 2555
14. Pittsburgh Penguins 2550
15. San Jose Sharks 2540
16. New York Rangers 2506
17. Boston Bruins 2497
18. Vancouver Canucks 2492
19. Minnesota Wild 2479
20. Montreal Canadiens 2477
21. Chicago Blackhawks 2449
22. Colorado Avalanche 2441
23. Anaheim Ducks 2435
24. Edmonton Oilers 2403
25. Carolina Hurricanes 2402
26. Ottawa Senators 2368
27. Detroit Red Wings 2328
28. Philadelphia Flyers 2306
29. Florida Panthers 2292
30. Arizona Coyotes 2201
31. Buffalo Sabres 2108

Atlantic average score=2425
Central average score=2591
Metropolitan average score=2536
Pacific average score=2484

Eastern Conference average score=2480
Western Conference average score=2534

I will try to update the rankings daily
Cheers

This is pretty cool. Thanks for your hard work.

 

[willmma]

updated for Dec 6th

 

[willmma]

updated for Dec 7th

 

[willmma]

updated for Dec 8th

 

[willmma]

Updated Dec 11

 

[libertarian]

Willmma Can you supply a link to where you are updating the ELO for the NHL The link in the OP take me to Wikipedia but no update on NHL standings.

Thanks

 

[Nizdizzle]

Willmma Can you supply a link to where you are updating the ELO for the NHL The link in the OP take me to Wikipedia but no update on NHL standings.

Thanks

He is updating the standings in the first post of this thread.

 

[libertarian]

He is updating the standings in the first post of this thread.

Thanks.
My bad. I thought he was updating on a other site. It didn't occur to me that he was updating his OP. Should of checked.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

I also view Tampa, STL, LA and Nashville (in no particular order) as the best teams in the league. Interesting.