Next perennial bottom feeder

[Chrisinroch]

Gonna have to say Minny

Inb4 the droves of Minny fans to tell us everything is ok and they’ll be fine

Everything is not OK and we won’t be fine.

 

[duckpuck]

I wouldn't be so sure about SJ though, Doug Wilson knows what he's doing..

Looking at their salary cap, I think it is not entirely clear that he knows what he's doing. Sarcasm aside, he went all in with this core group, but they looked flawed and their are a ton of contracts with big AAV and lots of term. That is a recipe for disaster. I say that as a ducks fan saddled with Perry and Kesler's contracts (and to a lesser extent Getlzaf's). The difference is the ducks have younger players with very good contracts (Gibson, Manson, Rakell, Lindholm, Kase), bought out Perry, put Kesler on IR, great goaltending, and have a nice pipeline of younger players - the ducks can probably avoid bottoming out assuming some of their younger players pan out. SJ has none of those things (other than possibly buyouts, but those won't be realistic for a while).

I’m not really sure why people are saying San Jose. They have a pretty young group of forwards and 2 of the best defencemen in the league locked up for term. Maybe in a few years but seems hf is reacting poorly to a 5 game sample size (as always).

Couture, Burns, Vlasic, and Jones' contracts have a lot of term and all of those players are in or past their prime. And in the case of Jones, it is just a bad contract. Couture and Kane are good players, but even their contracts will be pretty awful in 2-4 years (Couture $8M AAV through 2025-26 when he's 38). And who knows how Karlsson's contract will play out? He's so injury prone and he will have an $11.5 AAV through his 36-37 season.

Bottom line, they are locked into an aging core and it will be painful and dificult to extricate themselves from cap hell as the age up.

 

[belair]

The Kings. Goaltending has fallen down to Earth and their drafting hasn't been paying any dividends.

Strange to see Bjornfot on their roster.

 

[landfill]

ottawa without question


Islanders-feel they will take step back

-La will be for years to come.

 

[SmoggyTwinkles]

Yeah. With all that they're sitting at 7 points in 6 games...a 96 point pace over a season. What did 96 points do for a team in last season's playoff race?...early golfing.

Add in a bottom 16 defense and a goalie now over 30 to those multiple albatrosses of contracts and the future looks bleak for the Leafs.

it's amazing it took 54 posts before someone couldn't stand it anymore and tried to force the Leafs into this conversation. Congrats on being that guy.

On topic (not wishful thinking, but actually putting some thought into it)

Coyotes (don't look good on paper to me)

Wild, some seriously bad contracts on guys who are hitting 30 with 7 years to go type of thing.

San Jose, another team with guys hitting 30 on semi-long term contracts.

Blackhawks, Toews and Kane are fine, it's their Seabrook and Keith contracts that could cause them serious problems.

Teams people are mentioning that I think are fine:

Devils. Looking good as far as their cap spenditure.

Ottawa, if they get a new owner he's got a pretty clean slate, only one bad contract on there in Bobby Ryan, maybe Zaitsev but if a couple million is spread out is your worst contract situation you're looking good. Ottawa could be a big riser 5 years from now, very clean looking team contract wise.

Detroit, the won't bottom out perennially, but they obviously need a rebuild and could do it in a couple years IMO.

Other than that no idea, someone will surprise in both ways.

And who knows what the next CBA brings, if there's compliance buyouts that changes everything for a lot of teams.

 

[Trocity]

I’m not really sure why people are saying San Jose. They have a pretty young group of forwards and 2 of the best defencemen in the league locked up for term. Maybe in a few years but seems hf is reacting poorly to a 5 game sample size (as always).

Hating Karlsson and the Sharks is what is trendy atm, yes.

 

[voxel]

Since the early 90s. Yes, I remember Barker, Skille, Toews and Kane. 2007 was the first time since expansion that the Hawks picked higher than 3rd. Yes, Bill Wirtz ran the team into the ground. Until 2016, Kane's career high in points was 88 in 2010. Kane didn't peak until their run was already over, which is sad.

I also remember Ruutu, Yakubov, Vorobiev and the like.

My argument is this: The Hawks have had bad luck with lottery picks most years they've been bad.(2019 nonwithstanding, but they jumped to 3 in a year when there was a clear dropoff at 3) In 2004 they missed out on Malkin/Ovi 2005 got canceled when they were clearly one of the worst teams, 2006 they got lucky at the top, and in 2007 it felt deserved because they got screwed in 04/05. They always seem to get the short end of even winning a lottery. The only time they actually didn't was in 2007 with Kane.

Gotta shared the wealth then. Wild’s highest pick was Gaborik (aka Groinborik) at 3rd overall when they started. They deserve one first overall. Molano doesn’t count because that’s the Stars

 

[TrueTT]

Probably Pittsburgh starting in 2-3 years. Crosby/Malkin/Letang are getting old and their prospects pool is brutal

April 9 2022: the end the regular season. The Penguins finish just outside the playoffs. There are already whispers of relocation to Kansas City as fandom has shrunk to an irreducible minimum. STH have all decided not to renew and the team is no longer profitable.

April 26 2022: The Pittsburgh Penguins win the rights to 1st overall pick Matthew Savoie.

 

[The Merchant]

Wild

This was the appropriate first respone

 

[fasterthanlight]

San Jose: Again, I feel they'll still be good for a few more years (give or take 3-4 years, depending on how their D ages). But their team is definitely up there in age. Burns is 34 (his contract takes him to 39), Vlasic is 32 (his contract takes him to 38 I believe), Karlsson is likely going to fall off in his 30's (his biggest asset is his speed, and that's not likely to last through his contract which takes him to 36. I figure he still has 4 more good years or so barring injury), Couture is 30 this year, (his contract takes him to 37). Marleau and Thornton are both 30 this year. The upside is, I feel they have at least a bit of replacement talent already in their pool to help replace as these players age out, but the next few years of drafting could make or break them.

Again though, all it's going to take is one or two good trades, or a couple good drafts and this doesn't happen to any of these teams. I'd also say the wild, but I really feel they never totally bottom out, they remain just... average, somehow.

Damn, I wish

 

[TrueTT]

Yeah. With all that they're sitting at 7 points in 6 games...a 96 point pace over a season. What did 96 points do for a team in last season's playoff race?...early golfing.

Add in a bottom 16 defense and a goalie now over 30 to those multiple albatrosses of contracts and the future looks bleak for the Leafs.

Gee then, guess we can wrap it up right? After all, the 82 game regular season is over after the Leafs play 6 games.

The underlying metrics/advanced stats all show that the Leafs are one of the more dominant teams in the league. Top-10 to top-5. There is plenty of hockey to be played to make up “lost ground” from the first week LOL.

Our defence is going to be fine provided we retain one of Muzzin/Barrie, after Liljegren joins the fold with Sandin and Dermott gains experience. We can also flip Kapanen/Johnsson for D help given their market contracts.

Goalies can play well into their mid-late 30s provided the team in front of them isn’t trash- which it isn’t.

 

[CharasLazyWrister]

The Wild.

They indeed will be taking a step down from perennial mediocre team. Hard to see Billy Guerin having any success at all in the near term.

 

[TrueTT]

Get back to me when we miss the playoffs

That’s assuming any of you even stick around this time around unlike the early 1980s or early 2000s.

 

[Sysreq]

Looking at their salary cap, I think it is not entirely clear that he knows what he's doing. Sarcasm aside, he went all in with this core group, but they looked flawed and their are a ton of contracts with big AAV and lots of term. That is a recipe for disaster. I say that as a ducks fan saddled with Perry and Kesler's contracts (and to a lesser extent Getlzaf's). The difference is the ducks have younger players with very good contracts (Gibson, Manson, Rakell, Lindholm, Kase), bought out Perry, put Kesler on IR, great goaltending, and have a nice pipeline of younger players - the ducks can probably avoid bottoming out assuming some of their younger players pan out. SJ has none of those things (other than possibly buyouts, but those won't be realistic for a while).



Couture, Burns, Vlasic, and Jones' contracts have a lot of term and all of those players are in or past their prime. And in the case of Jones, it is just a bad contract. Couture and Kane are good players, but even their contracts will be pretty awful in 2-4 years (Couture $8M AAV through 2025-26 when he's 38). And who knows how Karlsson's contract will play out? He's so injury prone and he will have an $11.5 AAV through his 36-37 season.

Bottom line, they are locked into an aging core and it will be painful and dificult to extricate themselves from cap hell as the age up.

I’ve long suspected that Doug Wilson is banking pretty heavily on amnesty buyouts coming back in the next CBA. That will make shedding some of these a little easier. Plus the addition of Seattle should give the cap a good little bump like we saw with Vegas.

I don’t expect too many problems from Couture or Burns. I think they take after Jumbo and Patty. Karlsson could be interesting for the last 2-3, but he is still fairly young. Same deal with Kane. Vlasic’s deal was dead on arrival though. 7 years left and that dude has already fallen off a cliff. Jones to a much lesser extent.

Almost 100% sure Vlasic gets hit with an amnesty buyout after the next CBA is ratified.

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

I see the Wild making a comeback into the wild card cusp.
I'll say New Jersey finishes last in the league and wins the lottery for the 3rd time

 

[Lampedampe]

Kings, Wild and the Hawks are pretty good bets. Aging cores that will keep the teams from bottoming out, but never enough to push the team into a play-off spot.

 

[Lampedampe]

I see the Wild making a comeback into the wild card cusp.
I'll say New Jersey finishes last in the league and wins the lottery for the 3rd time

Don't say that.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I'd say the Wild if they didn't let Fenton go - it depends on how Guerin shapes the organization, but they have some good prospects coming up (Kaprizov, Boldy) that could change the franchise around really quick. They have to move on from Koivu though and hopefully Guerin understands that speed > defensive play when drafting.

 

[Todd from Leduc]

fLames are on the decline with no high end elite forwards on the horizon any time soon (well unless they win the draft lottery this year).

 

[General Disarray]

How can anyone say Jets? They do have 1-2 D propsects but even if they didn't, their forward core won't let them tank. They would just become a bubble team if anything.

 

[tucker3434]

fLames are on the decline with no high end elite forwards on the horizon any time soon (well unless they win the draft lottery this year).

Gaudreau is elite though I wouldn’t want him to be my best player. Then they’ve got another ~4 young forwards that are between good and very good. They might not be great but I’d be surprised if they were terrible any time in the near future.

 

[Puckluck13]

Edmonton Oilers will continue their great tradition.

 

[Jesus comma Brodin]

Minnesota is correct. We're already there. Going to be a long few years.

 

[Fear]

Kings are currently pretty bad, and their top 4 scorers last year are Kopitar, Brown, Doughty, Kovalchuk. Theres not too much to get excited about for young players. That's gonna be a desert of talent in a couple years and it's gonna get worse before it gets better

 

[trick9]

Sharks, Penguins, Blue Jackets and Wild are all good options.