Value of: Next Kaprizov's contract

[AKL]

What if we give him a 2 year bridge deal? Would he have arbitration rights after the 2nd year?

Arbitration and offer sheet, yes

Even a one year deal would give him both of those, I believe, because he'd have the necessary 2 years experience after next season.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Arbitration and offer sheet, yes

Even a one year deal would give him both of those, I believe, because he'd have the necessary 2 years experience after next season.

Thank you. I've asked that question twice and hadn't received an answer yet.

So people think it's actually realistic for us to give him a 2 year bridge, when he could go to arbitration for 1 year after that and then leave as a UFA? That sounds like one of the very worst case scenarios.

 

[AKL]

Thank you. I've asked that question twice and hadn't received an answer yet.

So people think it's actually realistic for us to give him a 2 year bridge, when he could go to arbitration for 1 year after that and then leave as a UFA? That sounds like one of the very worst case scenarios.

Yeah, in general I think Kaprizov arbitrating his way to a 1 year deal taking him to UFA after a 2 year bridge is unlikely, but it is a possibility.
Which is why I'd rather "overpay" him on a long term contract. And why numbers like 9M are being brought up.

But if offering him 8x8.5/9 is too risky for your tastes, then you're probably opting for the risk of a 1/2 year bridge, so pick your poison. Unless we get lucky and he agrees to 8x7.5 or something.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, in general I think Kaprizov arbitrating his way to a 1 year deal taking him to UFA after a 2 year bridge is unlikely, but it is a possibility.
Which is why I'd rather "overpay" him on a long term contract. And why numbers like 9M are being brought up.

But if offering him 8x8.5/9 is too risky for your tastes, then you're probably opting for the risk of a 1/2 year bridge, so pick your poison. Unless we get lucky and he agrees to 8x7.5 or something.

I guess this kind of ties in the the whole 'no offer sheet or arbitration rights this summer', along with the 'do you want $50-$65 million guaranteed, or do you want to go back to Russia for a while' aspects of it. Probably a delicate line to straddle.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Yeah, in general I think Kaprizov arbitrating his way to a 1 year deal taking him to UFA after a 2 year bridge is unlikely, but it is a possibility.
Which is why I'd rather "overpay" him on a long term contract. And why numbers like 9M are being brought up.

But if offering him 8x8.5/9 is too risky for your tastes, then you're probably opting for the risk of a 1/2 year bridge, so pick your poison. Unless we get lucky and he agrees to 8x7.5 or something.

Considering how seldom players live up to immense hype, sign me up for the risk.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Well, according to what I've been told; Kaprizov > Svetchnikov > Marner.

So start at $10.893 x 6 and go from there.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

1 year at 6 million. 8 x $10.0 after next year when he plays a full 82.

 

[Sota Popinski]

Well, according to what I've been told; Kaprizov > Svetchnikov > Marner.

So start at $10.893 x 6 and go from there.

Derp, derp Mitch Marner is the 7th highest paid player in the NHL. Is he the 7th best player? No, he's not. So your premise that a player's on-ice value is directly proportional to his salary is wrong. Just because Dubas got played by an RFA doesn't mean Billy G will.

 

[Sota Popinski]

It all depends on what Kaprizov wants and what Guerin wants. Even a 2 year deal brings Kaprizov to UFA status, so it's not likely to be a 2-4 year deal, as there is really no reason for the Wild to sign a deal that gives Kaprizov the ability to leave during his prime. I think it's a 5 year deal at around $7M AAV. That would make Kaprizov a UFA at 29 and able to get one more huge payday while also giving him some financial security. It also doesn't lock Guerin into a 7 or 8 year contract based off of 50-60 NHL games and buys some UFA years as well.

 

[Boondock]

$17m for those 4 won’t happen if Kaprizov gets $9m like people are saying. Then it’s probably $21-$23 for them.

I think Kap will get about $6 on a short term bridge deal. I was using the Point deal as a baseline but considering flat cap economics, position (Point is a C) and sample size its possible Kap gets around $6?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I think Kap will get about $6 on a short term bridge deal. I was using the Point deal as a baseline but considering flat cap economics, position (Point is a C) and sample size its possible Kap gets around $6?

A bridge would be unpleasant.

 

[Boondock]

A bridge would be unpleasant.

Given his age and the contract status a 3 or 4 year bridge would be bad, but is there an issue with a 1-2 year? Is the concern his price will jump from $7.5-$9AAV if the Wild wait?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Given his age and the contract status a 3 or 4 year bridge would be bad, but is there an issue with a 1-2 year? Is the concern his price will jump from $7.5-$9AAV if the Wild wait?

As I believe I recently learned, 2 years would give a direct route to UFA status. 1 year could work, but 2 could very easily be as bad as 3.

 

[Boondock]

As I believe I recently learned, 2 years would give a direct route to UFA status. 1 year could work, but 2 could very easily be as bad as 3.

I didn't realize that - I know older players that come over from Europe have different requirements to hit free agency, I just don't know what they all are. Thanks for the insight.

 

[Kshahdoo]

I didn't realize that - I know older players that come over from Europe have different requirements to hit free agency, I just don't know what they all are. Thanks for the insight.

Nah, Kaprizov is UFA in 3 years.

 

[Sota Popinski]

I was wrong, per Russo:

He can become an unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season, so you certainly don’t want to go short-term and walk him up to free agency or a year out where he can threaten to just sign for one year.

Ask Russo: Wild trade targets, Mikko Koivu's future, Kirill Kaprizov's contract

 

[Prior]

Still all the monies.

 

[Spurgeon]

$9Mx8

 

[Hideki N]

Yeah the Wild will try to sign Kaprizov to an 8 year deal, but if Kaprizov and his agent are smart he'll probably sign for 5 years so he can sign a huge 2nd contract before he turns 30.

He's probably a $5-6MM RFA player, and $9-10MM per year UFA player. That makes the math look like this:

Length (age at expiry): term / AAV
1 year (25): $5-6MM / $5-6MM
2 years (26): $10-12MM / $5-6MM
3 years (27): $15-18MM / $5-6MM
The Wild will try to avoid contract this since he will immediately become a UFA.
4 years (28): $24-28MM / $ 6-7MM
5 years (29): $33-38MM / $6.6-7.6MM <‐this is where I expect him to sign.
If Kaprizov signs for any longer, he turns 30 and may lose out on an opportunity to sign a 2nd huge contract.
6 years (30): $42-48MM / $7-8MM
7 years (31): $51-58MM / $7.3-8.3MM
8 years (32): $60-68MM / $7.5-8.5MM

 

[MuckOG]

If I'm Guerin, I offer something like 8 years and somewhere around $8-$8.5 million AAV

 

[Kshahdoo]

If I'm Guerin, I offer something like 8 years and somewhere around $8-$8.5 million AAV

I doubt, they will take a risk and offer such a big money.

 

[MuckOG]

I doubt, they will take a risk and offer such a big money.

Kaprizov is the best and most important player in Wild history (OK......that might be a bit hyperbolic). I don't think Guerin will risk it by trying to play hardball.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I doubt, they will take a risk and offer such a big money.

For some reason, I don't think there's much risk of this being a mirage.

 

[Bruce Granville]

I‘d say 8x8 is fine for both sides.
He can still sign for 7 years making 12, 12, 12, 8, 6, 1, 1 depending what the cap will look like.

 

[Spurgeon]

This is also a Russian kid from a blue-collar city in Siberia. Based off the “gaming” setup they showed him playing on during his Becoming Wild episode, I have a feeling he comes from pretty humble beginnings. I could see him not really caring about that 2nd contract and just being overwhelmed by the idea of making $60M+ over the span of 8 years.