Value of: Next Kaprizov's contract

AKL

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Hopefully he's savvy enough to recognize a buy low opportunity if it presents itself. Of course, as we saw last year, he could go for 15 points in his next 10 games or something and be right back up there.

That kind of sounds like a win-win for us
 

Dr Jan Itor

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I’d be more than comfortable if he got $8M x 8 at this point. That skating clinic he put on at 4v4 just convinced me that he’s absolutely the real deal. He’s not in Panarin category yet, but the dude is quickly heading towards being one of the best wingers in the league.

I'm not saying that he wouldn't probably end up being worth it, it just seems unprecedented in such a low amount of games.

As a comparison, I think Rantanen got $9.5M long-term after something like 175 points in 155 games over 2 seasons, or something like that. After 56 games? It's a big leap. Of course, if it's what absolutely has to happen in order for him to stick around, then so be it I guess.
 

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I'm not saying that he wouldn't probably end up being worth it, it just seems unprecedented in such a low amount of games.

As a comparison, I think Rantanen got $9.5M long-term after something like 175 points in 155 games over 2 seasons, or something like that. After 56 games? It's a big leap. Of course, if it's what absolutely has to happen in order for him to stick around, then so be it I guess.

It's a unique situation. We can't give him 3 or 4 years, and he's already 24.
 

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Completely understand. And a 2 year bridge deal has it's own problems (I think). I guess I'll just rest my hopes on Kaprizov being a bit charitable.

I think if he signs 6-7 years this summer, the AAV will be around 7-7.5. If he signs 1-2 years, I think it'll be around 5-6.

In my mind this seems relevant to bring up. In 2017, Draisaitl signed an 8x8.5 contract after seasons of 9 points in 37 games, 51 in 72, and 77 in 82. Not exactly the same, but kinda similar.
 

Luck 6

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He's a better player than Boeser, so

I mean, if you say so, I'm not convinced of that yet for a couple of reasons.

First off, Boeser is having a break out year this year. That is reflecting in not only his stats, but his all around play on the ice, he is a MUCH better player than we've seen the past two years. Plus, his shot is looking vastly improved as well, he's currently tied for 3rd in total goals scored in the league.

Secondly, Boeser has a proven NHL track record over the past 4 seasons. I would feel far more comfortable investing in Boeser with that track record, over Kaprizov's single good season. Especially considering that single season will only be a 56 game stint, it is extremely common for rookies (especially those from Europe or college) to taper off down the stretch as they are not used to the rigors of an 82 game schedule.

And lastly, Boeser has better NHL size. Now, we have seen a lot of smaller players be extremely successful in todays NHL especially in scoring roles, so this point needs to be taken with a grain of salt. But still, I usually tend to bet on the player with an above average NHL frame versus an undersized player when other factors are relatively equal.

But hey, that's not to say that Kaprizov isn't going to be a much better player than Boeser, but the argument of not paying him 9mil long-term isn't about that. It's about the risk in paying him that based on a minimal sample size, because if he regresses from his rookie season, it will cripple the Wild for years to come. They need to sign him to some sort of bridge contract from my viewpoint to ensure they are comfortable with what they have in him, even if it's just a 1 year deal.
 

KaprizovEntitlelist

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I mean, if you say so, I'm not convinced of that yet for a couple of reasons.

First off, Boeser is having a break out year this year. That is reflecting in not only his stats, but his all around play on the ice, he is a MUCH better player than we've seen the past two years. Plus, his shot is looking vastly improved as well, he's currently tied for 3rd in total goals scored in the league.

Secondly, Boeser has a proven NHL track record over the past 4 seasons. I would feel far more comfortable investing in Boeser with that track record, over Kaprizov's single good season. Especially considering that single season will only be a 56 game stint, it is extremely common for rookies (especially those from Europe or college) to taper off down the stretch as they are not used to the rigors of an 82 game schedule.

And lastly, Boeser has better NHL size. Now, we have seen a lot of smaller players be extremely successful in todays NHL especially in scoring roles, so this point needs to be taken with a grain of salt. But still, I usually tend to bet on the player with an above average NHL frame versus an undersized player when other factors are relatively equal.

But hey, that's not to say that Kaprizov isn't going to be a much better player than Boeser, but the argument of not paying him 9mil long-term isn't about that. It's about the risk in paying him that based on a minimal sample size, because if he regresses from his rookie season, it will cripple the Wild for years to come. They need to sign him to some sort of bridge contract from my viewpoint to ensure they are comfortable with what they have in him, even if it's just a 1 year deal.

Yeah, it would be dumb of wild. Wild have the cap. They can sign him to long term deal, & they should

Wild have taken other risks before
 

Boondock

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Fair. But if we go into next season with the only additions to our roster being ELC guys, that would be a disaster. I don't think there's any question we have enough cap space to sign our own guys, and we should definitely have more than $2M in cap space after we get them signed.
Looking at cap friendly, the Wild have roughly $22 million in cap for next season with 13 players signed. Big RFA's are Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek and Hartman - I predict these 4 eat up roughly $16-$17 million. 2-3 ELC players from the farm $1.5 - $2.5 million. That would leave roughly $3.5 million to round out the roster. If Dumba is traded then that opens up another $6 but also requires another player to replace him. It will be tight but there is wiggle room.
 

smokes lets go

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bit quick on the trigger to fork over $50 mil to the guy, as talented as he is, no? It could turn out to be a steal but thats still a big gamble at this point imo.
 

PAZ

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"Silver lining", if you want to call it that, is that Fiala isn't exactly heading towards a cap buster deal right now, so that might give us a little more room than we would've thought coming into the season.

I think people talking about $9M+ are going overboard though.

If Kaprizov bets on himself, why exactly would he accept anything less long-term? Panarin went from 2 year ELC > 2 x 6 mil > 7 x 11.6 mil.

If the Wild want to lock Kaprizov up long term, I don't see why he would take anything less. If there's a bridge and Kaprizov becomes a PPG+ player (which i'd be very surprised if he doesn't), he'd be asking ~$10 mil at the end of it.
 
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Dr Jan Itor

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If Kaprizov bets on himself, why exactly would he accept anything less long-term? Panarin went from 2 year ELC > 2 x 6 mil > 7 x 11.6 mil.

If the Wild want to lock Kaprizov up long term, I don't see why he would take anything less. If there's a bridge and Kaprizov becomes a PPG+ player (which i'd be very surprised if he doesn't), he'd be asking ~$10 mil at the end of it.

We’ll see. It’s fairly unprecedented for such few games, but it is a weird situation.
 

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Looking at cap friendly, the Wild have roughly $22 million in cap for next season with 13 players signed. Big RFA's are Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek and Hartman - I predict these 4 eat up roughly $16-$17 million. 2-3 ELC players from the farm $1.5 - $2.5 million. That would leave roughly $3.5 million to round out the roster. If Dumba is traded then that opens up another $6 but also requires another player to replace him. It will be tight but there is wiggle room.

Just for the Dumba part, the player that replaces him would be Addison or Menell, so it would be very inexpensive.
 

PAZ

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We’ll see. It’s fairly unprecedented for such few games, but it is a weird situation.

True, but it's also not quite common for a player of Kaprizov's caliber to come over so late, and Panarin is by far his best comparison. If the Wild want to chance it they can sign him to a short bridge deal worth $5-7 mil, but that's a big gamble. Everyone knows Kaprizov is going to be a star, with these players it's better just to sign them to a fair deal based off their talent. I'm not saying they should give Kaprizov a blank cheque like Toronto did with Marner, but paying more for the first few years and getting him signed long-term should be the goal.

Let's put it this way, is it worth losing Kaprizov over ~$1-1.5 mil AAV?
 
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Dr Jan Itor

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True, but it's also not quite common for a player of Kaprizov's caliber to come over so late, and Panarin is by far his best comparison. If the Wild want to chance it they can sign him to a short bridge deal worth $5-7 mil, but that's a big gamble. Everyone knows Kaprizov is going to be a star, with these players it's better just to sign them to a fair deal based off their talent. I'm not saying they should give Kaprizov a blank cheque like Toronto did with Marner, but paying more for the first few years and getting him signed long-term should be the goal.

Let's put it this way, is it worth losing Kaprizov over ~$1-1.5 mil AAV?

It is not.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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Looking at cap friendly, the Wild have roughly $22 million in cap for next season with 13 players signed. Big RFA's are Fiala, Kaprizov, Ek and Hartman - I predict these 4 eat up roughly $16-$17 million. 2-3 ELC players from the farm $1.5 - $2.5 million. That would leave roughly $3.5 million to round out the roster. If Dumba is traded then that opens up another $6 but also requires another player to replace him. It will be tight but there is wiggle room.

$17m for those 4 won’t happen if Kaprizov gets $9m like people are saying. Then it’s probably $21-$23 for them.
 

AKL

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That is what I'm hoping for as well.

Refresh me on what the 10.2c status is again please?

NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Towards the bottom:
What is a 10.2(c) player?
A player becomes a free agent when their contract expires on July 1 after the last League Year of their contract. A player who does not meet the UFA requirements or the Group 2 RFA requirements displayed in the table above, and has been issued a qualifying offer, is designated a 10.2(c) player. The player is only eligible to negotiate and sign a contract with the club that holds their signing rights. They are ineligible to negotiate a contract (offer sheet) with any other club. They are also ineligible for arbitration. If the player does not receive a qualifying offer by June 25th at 5:00pm ET, they immediately become a UFA.

Basically he doesn't have enough NHL or AHL experience to get any arbitration or offer sheet privileges, so he has very little leverage. If the Wild offer him a QO by the deadline, they retain his rights, so his only leverage is going back to the KHL for 3 more years.
 

Dr Jan Itor

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NHL CBA FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Towards the bottom:


Basically he doesn't have enough NHL or AHL experience to get any arbitration or offer sheet privileges, so he has very little leverage. If the Wild offer him a QO by the deadline, they retain his rights, so his only leverage is going back to the KHL for 3 more years.

What if we give him a 2 year bridge deal? Would he have arbitration rights after the 2nd year?
 

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