Next Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup

[TMLeafs17]

Do this poll last summer and 50% would’ve said Oilers

 

[antiqueslivers]

By track record I mean experience too - maybe 'track record' wasn't the best terminology to use.

The roster/talent surrounding Winnipeg, Toronto and Edmonton hasn't changed a ton in the past 12 months has it? And in the summer majority opinion would have said

1. Edm 2. Tor 3. Winnipeg (or they'd be 5th or 6th)

now people say:

1. Winnipeg 2. Tor 3. Edmonton

Why? a year ago Winnipeg's current players sucked, could only score points but not win games and would never really amount to playoff success. And a year ago Edmonton's player were so good that they were bound to dominate their division and also playoffs for the next 5-7 years.

Now that the standings are different - the opposite is true?

now I don't want to alarm any one here but the reason Edmonton and Winnipeg have had this switcheroo in fortunes this season from last, is well, Matt hendricks. Hendo. The ol'man. No idea why... its just he is the common denominator.

Matt Hendricks, the magic man.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

now I don't want to alarm any one here but the reason Edmonton and Winnipeg have had this switcheroo in fortunes this season from last, is well, Matt hendricks. Hendo. The ol'man. No idea why... its just he is the common denominator.

Matt Hendricks, the magic man.

Nah man at the start of the season Hendy said the Jets are better than the Oilers, everybody was surprised and in a cheer of optimism when he said that but it seems to be true..

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

The Leafs are probably the team to beat as far as Canadian teams go. they are as deep up front as you can get, they have an elite goalie, Riely is developing into a #1 D man it appears they have every core piece you need

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

The Leafs are probably the team to beat as far as Canadian teams go. they are as deep up front as you can get, they have an elite goalie, Riely is developing into a #1 D man it appears they have every core piece you need

Jets say hello...

1st Line:

Connor > Hyman

Scheifele > Matthews

Wheeler > Nylander

2nd Line:

Perreault > Marleau

Little < Kadri

Roslovic < Marner

3rd Line:

Ehlers > JVR

Lowry < Bozak

Laine > Brown

4th Line:

Tanev = Komarov

Hendricks > Moore

Armia > Kapanen

I can go overkill and mention the Defence if you please... I mean yeah you have Rielly but let’s not forget both Byfuglien and Myers are currently better(Defensive Metrics are currently much better, while both boasting great Point numbers)...

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Jets say hello...

1st Line:

Connor > Hyman

Scheifele > Matthews

Wheeler > Nylander

2nd Line:

Perreault > Marleau

Little < Kadri

Roslovic < Marner

3rd Line:

Ehlers > JVR

Lowry < Bozak

Laine > Brown

4th Line:

Tanev = Komarov

Hendricks > Moore

Armia > Kapanen

I can go overkill and mention the Defence if you please... I mean yeah you have Rielly but let’s not forget both Byfuglien and Myers are currently better(Defensive Metrics are currently much better, while both boasting great Point numbers)...

Myers is not, and never has been better than Rielly, Perrault is not better than Marleau and never has been

I also like how you conveniently choose to compare Laine and Brown, comparing your franchise player to a 3rd liner good job.

 

[Oilers Propagandist]

The Leafs are probably the team to beat as far as Canadian teams go. they are as deep up front as you can get, they have an elite goalie, Riely is developing into a #1 D man it appears they have every core piece you need

You read the OP?
Performance today has nothing to with being the next canadian team to win a cup.
TML have the 1st rd curse, jets the 0 win curse, and evidentally for the Oilers- the "when we win we win, when we lose we win" curse. We show up and show up well in the playoffs, or win 1st overall and a potential Karlsson.

Oilers will be the next to win the cup. i would say 2 years.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

You read the OP?
Performance today has nothing to with being the next canadian team to win a cup.
TML have the 1st rd curse, jets the 0 win curse, and evidentally for the Oilers- the "when we win we win, when we lose we win" curse. We show up and show up well in the playoffs, or win 1st overall and a potential Karlsson.

Oilers will be the next to win the cup. i would say 2 years.

As good as Mcdavid is, he can't win a cup himself. you actually need to build a team around him he needs support.

You look at what Matthews has in Toronto, he has Nylander, Marner, JVR, Marleau, Brown, Hyman, and Kapenan and that is just up front.

where is that in Edmonton? it doesn't exit Mcdavid doesn't have that kind of depth around him, not even close.

I will give you Draisatial but that is it, that is all Mcdavid has and if you put Leon at center he has nothing to play with.

You can bring up Maroon but chances are he is gone before Monday

Lucic was meant to be a support piece but that hasn't worked

There is ZERO depth in Edmonton

The Leafs and Jets would both beat the oilers right now if they met in the playoffs because unlike Toronto, who doesn't NEED Matthews to score to win, or Winnipeg who doesn't NEED Laine to score to win, If Mcdavid doesn't score Edmonton doesn't win

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Myers is not, and never has been better than Rielly, Perrault is not better than Marleau and never has been

I also like how you conveniently choose to compare Laine and Brown, comparing your franchise player to a 3rd liner good job.

Myers has less PPG, but lets not primarily judge them off of they’re secondary job(in scoring) but rather defensive shutdown game. Myers has a better oiSV%, lower amount of oiGA per 60 minutes(which means better than Riellys oiGA), he has more Blocks(pg) and more Hits(pg), so he does more. Myers has played nearly triple the PK minutes(so less sample size) and has nearly 1 point less of oiGA per 60 minutes and has a 90.9 our oiSV% on ice PK compared to Rielly’s 86.2 oiSV%. 5 on 5 Myers also has a better oiGA as well.. I mean yeah you could just look at points though, lol. Or judge them off they primary job and say who’s better at that.

oiGA = On Ice Goals Against(the goals that are scored while the players on the ice, the smaller the number the better)

oiSV% = on ice Save Percentage(the save percentage the team has while that player is on the ice, the higher the number the better).

Myers/Rielly Stats:

Tyler Myers Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Morgan Rielly Stats | Hockey-Reference.com


Perreault is nearly better in every metric including points themself and has more 3 more points in 6 less games. I mean a 58.8 Corsi(it’s not a lucky year either he’s one of the highest corsi players in the league and has been for a while) to Marleau’s 49.1... I’ll just start with that and end with that because you know a guy is better in every metric when they nearly have 10+ corsi on them(you can look it up too he really does nearly sweep Marleau in most statistic metrics).

Perreault/Marleau Stats:

Mathieu Perreault Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Patrick Marleau Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

To your Laine > Brown complaint I was only comparing the Lines/Depth chart(when healthy). Nothing was convenient and anyways if I was biasedly comparing I could had used many Jets forward over Brown for that one but I simply used the current lineup to be as fair as possible and to avoid bias.

Please dont pronounce someone better before you do your research.

Also I think it’s fair to say now that I proved you wrong that argument and this is how they unbiasedly compare:

Perreault > Marleau

Myers > Rielly

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Myers has less PPG, but lets not primarily judge them off of they’re secondary job(in scoring) but rather defensive shutdown game. Myers has a better oiSV%, lower amount of oiGA per 60 minutes(which means better than Riellys oiGA), he has more Blocks(pg) and more Hits(pg), so he does more. Myers has played nearly triple the PK minutes(so less sample size) and has nearly 1 point less of oiGA per 60 minutes and has a 90.9 our oiSV% on ice PK compared to Rielly’s 86.2 oiSV%. 5 on 5 Myers also has a better oiGA as well.. I mean yeah you could just look at points though, lol. Or judge them off they primary job and say who’s better at that.

oiGA = On Ice Goals Against(the goals that are scored while the players on the ice, the smaller the number the better)

oiSV% = on ice Save Percentage(the save percentage the team has while that player is on the ice, the higher the number the better).

Myers/Rielly Stats:

Tyler Myers Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Morgan Rielly Stats | Hockey-Reference.com


Perreault is nearly better in every metric including points themself and has more 3 more points in 6 less games. I mean a 58.8 Corsi(it’s not a lucky year either he’s one of the highest corsi players in the league and has been for a while) to Marleau’s 49.1... I’ll just start with that and end with that because you know a guy is better in every metric when they nearly have 10+ corsi on them(you can look it up too he really does nearly sweep Marleau in most statistic metrics).

Perreault/Marleau Stats:

Mathieu Perreault Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Patrick Marleau Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

To your Laine > Brown complaint I was only comparing the Lines/Depth chart(when healthy). Nothing was convenient and anyways if I was biasedly comparing I could had used many Jets forward over Brown for that one but I simply used the current lineup to be as fair as possible and to avoid bias.

Please dont pronounce someone better before you do your research.

Also I think it’s fair to say now that I proved you wrong that argument and this is how they unbiasedly compare:

Perreault > Marleau

Myers > Rielly

I don't need to do research because I watch the games, with the eyes that are attached to my face, they eye test is what I trust because it's exactly that what I see, when Nazem Kadri put up his 39 and 45 point seasons a couple years ago, I was told he was a #1 center, some even said he was the level of Stamkos because the advanced stats said so, the thing is neither of those things ae true, he isn't a #1 center, he's a great #2 but not a #1, because #1 centers don't go through a stretch of 1 goal in 20+ games, that doesn't happen for them, it went through it, he came out of it and is now on fire, but if the advanced stats people were right and he was the guy they said he was, that 25 game stretch or whatever it was with 1 goal, doesn't happen.

You can say Morgan Rielly isn't as good as Myers all you want, and you can come up with any "advanced stat" you want as "proof"

Fact is the game comes down to 2 teams on the ice and whoever scores the most wins.

Give me the 2 way d man over the guy that plays good defense and doesn't score any day of the week, you know why? because the 2 way D man can do both, that is why they are called 2 way D men.

Myers is having a rebound season this year and that's great for him but he had about 4-6 year steady decline in his offensive numbers so he is going to have to show that this isn't a 1 off before I put him on Rielly's level.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Not with Matthews being injury prone.

Um. Yeah. Getting crunched between two players makes him "injury prone". That's right.

Shouldn't you be in the "worst Canadian team" thread?

 

[sparxx87]

Myers has less PPG, but lets not primarily judge them off of they’re secondary job(in scoring) but rather defensive shutdown game. Myers has a better oiSV%, lower amount of oiGA per 60 minutes(which means better than Riellys oiGA), he has more Blocks(pg) and more Hits(pg), so he does more. Myers has played nearly triple the PK minutes(so less sample size) and has nearly 1 point less of oiGA per 60 minutes and has a 90.9 our oiSV% on ice PK compared to Rielly’s 86.2 oiSV%. 5 on 5 Myers also has a better oiGA as well.. I mean yeah you could just look at points though, lol. Or judge them off they primary job and say who’s better at that.

oiGA = On Ice Goals Against(the goals that are scored while the players on the ice, the smaller the number the better)

oiSV% = on ice Save Percentage(the save percentage the team has while that player is on the ice, the higher the number the better).

Myers/Rielly Stats:

Tyler Myers Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Morgan Rielly Stats | Hockey-Reference.com


Perreault is nearly better in every metric including points themself and has more 3 more points in 6 less games. I mean a 58.8 Corsi(it’s not a lucky year either he’s one of the highest corsi players in the league and has been for a while) to Marleau’s 49.1... I’ll just start with that and end with that because you know a guy is better in every metric when they nearly have 10+ corsi on them(you can look it up too he really does nearly sweep Marleau in most statistic metrics).

Perreault/Marleau Stats:

Mathieu Perreault Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

Patrick Marleau Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

To your Laine > Brown complaint I was only comparing the Lines/Depth chart(when healthy). Nothing was convenient and anyways if I was biasedly comparing I could had used many Jets forward over Brown for that one but I simply used the current lineup to be as fair as possible and to avoid bias.

Please dont pronounce someone better before you do your research.

Also I think it’s fair to say now that I proved you wrong that argument and this is how they unbiasedly compare:

Perreault > Marleau

Myers > Rielly

You realize you kill your argument with analytics, right? Nobody beyond a novice buys that ****. The only teams who use those numbers to evaluate players are the Coyotes and Panthers - look how that’s going.

I actually agree that MP is playing better than Marleau, but the Rielly-Myers comparison is silly. Very silly.

....and with the amount of time you spent on all that nonsense, it might shock you to know it has no bearing on what actually happens on the ice.


OP- The Jets and Leafs are the only ones close. Flames are a whole lot of mediocre and the Oilers are pretty bad beyond their top end. Sens and Canucks aren’t winning anytime soon (or ever) but dark horse pick would be Montreal IF they can land Tavares this summer.

 

[Bill Berg]

I don't need to do research because I watch the games, with the eyes that are attached to my face, they eye test is what I trust because it's exactly that what I see, when Nazem Kadri put up his 39 and 45 point seasons a couple years ago, I was told he was a #1 center, some even said he was the level of Stamkos because the advanced stats said so, the thing is neither of those things ae true, he isn't a #1 center, he's a great #2 but not a #1, because #1 centers don't go through a stretch of 1 goal in 20+ games, that doesn't happen for them, it went through it, he came out of it and is now on fire, but if the advanced stats people were right and he was the guy they said he was, that 25 game stretch or whatever it was with 1 goal, doesn't happen.

That is one long-ass sentence.

 

[Drytoast]

Toronto looks great, better than last year but this year Winnipeg looks strong.

The poor ass franchise has only ever won what? 2 playoff rounds in all of history so give them some god damn love. They are due.

 

[Gurilla]

Jets are the deepest and most well rounded.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

I don't need to do research because I watch the games, with the eyes that are attached to my face, they eye test is what I trust because it's exactly that what I see, when Nazem Kadri put up his 39 and 45 point seasons a couple years ago, I was told he was a #1 center, some even said he was the level of Stamkos because the advanced stats said so, the thing is neither of those things ae true, he isn't a #1 center, he's a great #2 but not a #1, because #1 centers don't go through a stretch of 1 goal in 20+ games, that doesn't happen for them, it went through it, he came out of it and is now on fire, but if the advanced stats people were right and he was the guy they said he was, that 25 game stretch or whatever it was with 1 goal, doesn't happen.

You can say Morgan Rielly isn't as good as Myers all you want, and you can come up with any "advanced stat" you want as "proof"

Fact is the game comes down to 2 teams on the ice and whoever scores the most wins.

Give me the 2 way d man over the guy that plays good defense and doesn't score any day of the week, you know why? because the 2 way D man can do both, that is why they are called 2 way D men.

Myers is having a rebound season this year and that's great for him but he had about 4-6 year steady decline in his offensive numbers so he is going to have to show that this isn't a 1 off before I put him on Rielly's level.

Those stats are not hard to understand I even highlighted and explained them to a high degree so you could understand them.


If Myers lets less goals in the net while being on the ice, makes shooters take less quality shots(from the oiSV%) and has more Blocks and has had better at doing so his whole career(better career oiGA and oiSV%) less sample size, Hits both on the PK and 5v5 that says someone is specifically better defensively, I also watch games I see the way Myers plays he is excellent defensively and has been for the past couple years(yes this is one of his better seasons but he’s been consistent and in Myers defence it is Reilly’s best season so that’s a little ignorant to make that argument) and on top of that Myers is no slug offensively. I guess if you don’t want to judge Defensemen on what they get paid to do than don’t but clearly Myers looks be be better overall and at what matters most.

You realize you kill your argument with analytics, right? Nobody beyond a novice buys that ****. The only teams who use those numbers to evaluate players are the Coyotes and Panthers - look how that’s going.

I actually agree that MP is playing better than Marleau, but the Rielly-Myers comparison is silly. Very silly.

....and with the amount of time you spent on all that nonsense, it might shock you to know it has no bearing on what actually happens on the ice.


OP- The Jets and Leafs are the only ones close. Flames are a whole lot of mediocre and the Oilers are pretty bad beyond their top end. Sens and Canucks aren’t winning anytime soon (or ever) but dark horse pick would be Montreal IF they can land Tavares this summer.

Those aren’t even metrics really, they’re just stats that tell us whose been on the ice and let more goals in while doing so and what percentage of shots have been taken before there is a goal, and Myers has done better in that category compared to Reilly with less sample size as he is older(who knows Reilly might even one day become better but he’s not today).

Perreault is not “Playing Better” he simply is better. Look at the stats and watch them play, to be honest I don’t even like all that extra work in looking at all the extra metrics beyond basic stats and all the other stuff that comes with it(unless it is a defensemen I am judging in which you have to look at that to judge how good he is at defending) but people usually use them as a counter argument and I was strictly saying your not even gonna find a metric that Marleau is better at because Perreault is completely better.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Jets are the deepest and most well rounded.

It's good that you support your team and all, but that is very debatable. One could argue that the Leafs are just as deep, if not deeper.

Leafs have four 20+ goal scorers so far.
Jets have three.

Leafs have six guys on pace to score 20 goals.
Same with Winnipeg.

Leafs have three players with 30+ assists so far.
Winnipeg has two.

Leafs have ten players with 30+ points so far.
Winnipeg has nine.

And I'm sure arguments could be made to support your statement. Fact is......they are BOTH super close to each other. To call one "deeper & more well rounded" is not really true at this point. It's neck and neck.

 

[sparxx87]

Those aren’t even metrics really, they’re just stats that tell us whose been on the ice and let more goals in while doing so and what percentage of shots have been taken before there is a goal, and Myers has done better in that category compared to Reilly with less sample size as he is older(who knows Reilly might even one day become better but he’s not today).

Perreault is not “Playing Better” he simply is better. Look at the stats and watch them play, to be honest I don’t even like all that extra work in looking at all the extra metrics beyond basic stats and all the other stuff that comes with it(unless it is a defensemen I am judging in which you have to look at that to judge how good he is at defending) but people usually use them as a counter argument and I was strictly saying your not even gonna find a metric that Marleau is better at because Perreault is completely better.

But I’ve seen stats posted that show Jake Gardiner as an elite defenseman and Nazem Kadri as an elite centre? If something can be so wrong, why would I ever trust it? I’ve looked at the formulas on how most of these numbers are calculated and never even finish, I just end up giggling and tossing them aside.

“Analytics, what a thing. Look at all the people who have jobs in hockey working analytics.... they don’t mean anything, but good for them!”
-Mike Babcock

You’re right about Perrault. I chose the wording of ‘playing better’ because Marleau is 38 years old and obviously not the player he used to be.. but aside from that, I’ve always been a MP fan and defended his deployment when a handful of Finnish posters felt Maurice was sabotaging Laine’s Calder run by playing Perreault. No arguments there.... but your Myers > Rielly theory is pretty sus.

 

[kyle o connor]

It's good that you support your team and all, but that is very debatable. One could argue that the Leafs are just as deep, if not deeper.

Leafs have four 20+ goal scorers so far.
Jets have three.

Leafs have six guys on pace to score 20 goals.
Same with Winnipeg.

Leafs have three players with 30+ assists so far.
Winnipeg has two.

Leafs have ten players with 30+ points so far.
Winnipeg has nine.

And I'm sure arguments could be made to support your statement. Fact is......they are BOTH super close to each other. To call one "deeper & more well rounded" is not really true at this point. It's neck and neck.

Let’s see if the Leafs can get something similar to the 25/32 possible points (78%) when their 1C is out.

#HymanGauthierNylander

 

[Baxterman]

There isn't a team that looks likely right now, every team needs a big upgrade if they were to win or a huge fluke.

So based on that I will throw out a homer vote to my own team.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Let’s see if the Leafs can get something similar to the 25/32 possible points (78%) when their 1C is out.

#HymanGauthierNylander

LOL. Whatever you need to try and feel better, I guess, Man.

 

[David Suzuki]

Don't think any of the current teams are good enough so went with a random Vancouver vote because they'd be the least bad option for me since it won't be the habs.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

But I’ve seen stats posted that show Jake Gardiner as an elite defenseman and Nazem Kadri as an elite centre? If something can be so wrong, why would I ever trust it? I’ve looked at the formulas on how most of these numbers are calculated and never even finish, I just end up giggling and tossing them aside.

“Analytics, what a thing. Look at all the people who have jobs in hockey working analytics.... they don’t mean anything, but good for them!”
-Mike Babcock

You’re right about Perrault. I chose the wording of ‘playing better’ because Marleau is 38 years old and obviously not the player he used to be.. but aside from that, I’ve always been a MP fan and defended his deployment when a handful of Finnish posters felt Maurice was sabotaging Laine’s Calder run by playing Perreault. No arguments there.... but your Myers > Rielly theory is pretty sus.

Defensive stats are simple just like points, I’ll give you the definition(again
of the easier ones.

oiSV% = On Ice Save Percentage -> The save percentage of team while said player is on the ice -> This correlated with the quality of Shots your defender does or doesn’t let opponents take.

oiGA = On Ice Goals Against(per 60 minutes) -> The amount of goals that gets scored against while said player is on the ice -> This simply correlated with how defensively sound the said player is.



Defence is not a compound metric, if Myers has consistently had great oiSV% and oiGA through his career on both the PK and 5v5, and with all that said he’s having one of his best career seasons. Also what makes you think Myers is worse than Rielly if you’ve hardly seen him play, Myers is excellent Defensively from my viewing and I am yet to hear any complaints about him in the Jets forum.



You can make up what ever anecdotal arguments you want but Myers is better Defensively compared to Rielly(don’t get me wrong Rielly’s numbers are extremely impressive but Myers is better) and I can tell you don’t watch Myers and you clearly only looked at one staticistic in points(which is safer when judging forwards but having good Defensive numbers when your a defensemen is critical).

Arguing Defence doesn’t matter for a defensemen just because Kadri and Gardiner where supposedly “Elite” in a particular metric that you couldn’t even provide doesn’t make your argument sound any less stupid.

 

[besser]

Um. Yeah. Getting crunched between two players makes him "injury prone". That's right.

Shouldn't you be in the "worst Canadian team" thread?

I guess getting injured 3 times this year doesn’t count as injury prone guys.

You hypocrites can’t call Tanev injury prone if you think Matthews isn’t then. Tanev blocks pucks with his face etc

 

[TheDoldrums]

I guess getting injured 3 times this year doesn’t count as injury prone guys.

You hypocrites can’t call Tanev injury prone if you think Matthews isn’t then. Tanev blocks pucks with his face etc

Tanev gets hurt every year. If Matthews gets hurt every year, he'll get that label too. This is one season. After playing all 88 games in his only other season so far.