Next Big 4 league to expand

[MMC]

What do you think will be the next Big 4 NA sports league to expand after NHL adds the Seattle expansion team?

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[HisIceness]

I know the NBA has said they won't expand, but eventually they will. When is anyones guess but they're "next".

 

[MMC]

I know the NBA has said they won't expand, but eventually they will. When is anyones guess but they're "next".

Logically NBA makes the most sense to me but because they seem adamant about not considering it, I voted for MLB instead.

 

[Mightygoose]

I think MLB will be next but not until the middle of the decade.

Once the stadium situations are settled in Oakland and Tampa Bay, they'll move forward. With the leases expiring after the 2024 and 2027 season respectively, it's still a ways to go.

 

[Deen]

I would think after Vegas gets their team that Montreal might be for Baseball.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

I think MLB will be next but not until the middle of the decade.

Once the stadium situations are settled in Oakland and Tampa Bay, they'll move forward. With the leases expiring after the 2024 and 2027 season respectively, it's still a ways to go.

MLB has a few more problem teams as well Peter Angelos kids want to move the orioles to Nashville if they cant find a local owner.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Logically NBA makes the most sense to me but because they seem adamant about not considering it, I voted for MLB instead.

Not really, there are not enough superstars to go around. It will just be more bad teams.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Not really, there are not enough superstars to go around. It will just be more bad teams.

If the NBA was interested a market like Vegas The best way to have a competitive team would be to move a team like Memphis or NO they would inherit an roster with potential.

 

[Voight]

NBA will be in LV within the decade.

 

[KevFu]

MLB will be next to decide to expand.
1. They've been hit the hardest by the pandemic, so new revenues would welcomed.
2. Manfred has been pimping expansion for years now, he can't go six months without talking about it.

I could see the NBA being the next to actually expand, because of how long it takes baseball to get teams into the league compared to basketball.

MLB ready facilities available now are basically none. A couple places could expand, like Charlotte could build seats in the outfield and up their capacity to 25,000 as a temporary solution before an MLB team moves in, or temporarily use a football stadium like Denver, Miami, Los Angeles teams of the past (although those multipurpose options are few and far between now).

But the NBA could expand to 20 to 40 markets within months if they wanted to: Vegas, Montreal, Nashville, San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Tampa, St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Raleigh, Newark, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Long Island, Louisville, Lexington, Kansas City, Salt Lake, Provo. Not saying the should, would, or want to expand that much that fast, just that it's logistically possible.

 

[gstommylee]

MLB will be next to decide to expand.
1. They've been hit the hardest by the pandemic, so new revenues would welcomed.
2. Manfred has been pimping expansion for years now, he can't go six months without talking about it.

I could see the NBA being the next to actually expand, because of how long it takes baseball to get teams into the league compared to basketball.

MLB ready facilities available now are basically none. A couple places could expand, like Charlotte could build seats in the outfield and up their capacity to 25,000 as a temporary solution before an MLB team moves in, or temporarily use a football stadium like Denver, Miami, Los Angeles teams of the past (although those multipurpose options are few and far between now).

But the NBA could expand to 20 to 40 markets within months if they wanted to: Vegas, Montreal, Nashville, San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Tampa, St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Raleigh, Newark, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Long Island, Louisville, Lexington, Kansas City, Salt Lake, Provo. Not saying the should, would, or want to expand that much that fast, just that it's logistically possible.

But the NBA isn't going to go to 40 teams. Its hard enough for them to want to go to 32 teams but 40? Utah already has a NBA team with the jazz btw.

 

[garbageteam]

NBA, IMO it has the best future of all the Big-4.

 

[gstommylee]

NBA will be in LV within the decade.

Not sure NBA will be in Vegas within a decade given it'll be a while before the economy recovers there. I would say NBA will be back in Seattle before it'll be back in Vegas.

 

[KevFu]

But the NBA isn't going to go to 40 teams. Its hard enough for them to want to go to 32 teams but 40? Utah already has a NBA team with the jazz btw.

Did you read that last sentence?

I'm saying the logistics of adding a team to the league is not a problem for the NBA. It is for football and baseball; and it's slightly more of a problem for hockey than basketball.

The Arizona Diamondbacks took over three years from announcement to playing, because they had to build a stadium. And they started the stadium plan over a year before getting the team. It was 4.5 years from concept to play ball. Washington, Colorado and Miami used temporary venues for their new baseball teams, but you'd be hard pressed to find a stadium that could work since those were multi-purpose stadiums. That leaves minor league parks with 12,000 seats like Nashville or Charlotte, which isn't realistic. They're better off just waiting until the stadium is built to play.

Whereas, teams in those cities I listed (yeah, I biffed on Salt Lake. I added Provo because of BYU's large arena, and then was like, Salt Lake is in Utah!), picking the name is going to take the longest, not building a venue because they HAVE ONE.

After Hurricane Katrina, the Hornets announced they'd be based out of OKC on September 29, played their first preseason game there on Oct 18, and tipped off the regular season in OKC on November 1.

So I was saying MLB could announce Montreal and Nashville as expansion teams before the NBA announces it is expanding... but the NBA could announce expansion AFTER that, and have their new teams playing BEFORE the Expos and Sounds play MLB baseball.

 

[gstommylee]

Did you read that last sentence?

I'm saying the logistics of adding a team to the league is not a problem for the NBA. It is for football and baseball; and it's slightly more of a problem for hockey than basketball.

The Arizona Diamondbacks took over three years from announcement to playing, because they had to build a stadium. And they started the stadium plan over a year before getting the team. It was 4.5 years from concept to play ball. Washington, Colorado and Miami used temporary venues for their new baseball teams, but you'd be hard pressed to find a stadium that could work since those were multi-purpose stadiums. That leaves minor league parks with 12,000 seats like Nashville or Charlotte, which isn't realistic. They're better off just waiting until the stadium is built to play.

Whereas, teams in those cities I listed (yeah, I biffed on Salt Lake. I added Provo because of BYU's large arena, and then was like, Salt Lake is in Utah!), picking the name is going to take the longest, not building a venue because they HAVE ONE.

After Hurricane Katrina, the Hornets announced they'd be based out of OKC on September 29, played their first preseason game there on Oct 18, and tipped off the regular season in OKC on November 1.

So I was saying MLB could announce Montreal and Nashville as expansion teams before the NBA announces it is expanding... but the NBA could announce expansion AFTER that, and have their new teams playing BEFORE the Expos and Sounds play MLB baseball.

The issue with the NBA is the owners actually wanting to split the pie even more and currently they don't want to. Another thing it'll only cause a bigger problem since to even compete you need superstars and right now the smaller markets are having a hard time getting those super stars to play for the team.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

MLB will be next to decide to expand.
1. They've been hit the hardest by the pandemic, so new revenues would welcomed.
2. Manfred has been pimping expansion for years now, he can't go six months without talking about it.

I could see the NBA being the next to actually expand, because of how long it takes baseball to get teams into the league compared to basketball.

MLB ready facilities available now are basically none. A couple places could expand, like Charlotte could build seats in the outfield and up their capacity to 25,000 as a temporary solution before an MLB team moves in, or temporarily use a football stadium like Denver, Miami, Los Angeles teams of the past (although those multipurpose options are few and far between now).

But the NBA could expand to 20 to 40 markets within months if they wanted to: Vegas, Montreal, Nashville, San Jose, Anaheim, Vancouver, Tampa, St. Louis, Buffalo, Columbus, Raleigh, Newark, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Calgary, Long Island, Louisville, Lexington, Kansas City, Salt Lake, Provo. Not saying the should, would, or want to expand that much that fast, just that it's logistically possible.

David Stern blocked a Vancouver Grizzles move to STL back when they where shopping the team to us city's. If a NBA team went to STL it would most likely destroy any momentum or market share the blues have gained since the rams left. Grizzlies will over-saturate St. Louis sports

 

[gstommylee]

David Stern blocked a Vancouver Grizzles move to STL back when they where shopping the team to us city's. If a NBA team went to STL it would most likely destroy any momentum or market share the blues have gained since the rams left. Grizzlies will over-saturate St. Louis sports

I seen arguments like that about Seattle that it would be over saturated if we had MLS, MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL.

 

[sh724]

David Stern blocked a Vancouver Grizzles move to STL back when they where shopping the team to us city's. If a NBA team went to STL it would most likely destroy any momentum or market share the blues have gained since the rams left. Grizzlies will over-saturate St. Louis sports

This article is from 2001 and does not really address market share. It was written by a college student and is mostly about the college playing games at Savvis (now Scottrade). St Louis University has long since built their own arena on campus.

2001 was still in the "Greatest Show on Turf" days when the rams were selling out every game.

The only thing in this article that is still relevant is that its true if an NBA team came to STL and was not successful they would not get much support, but that is true of most teams in most markets regardless of the sport.

Having said that, i do not see STL getting an NBA team any time soon especially with the MLS expansion team coming to town. STL is much more interested in Soccer than NBA and it would be hard for a new NBA team to compete with the existing MLB and NHL teams and a new MLS team.

Also apparently Vince McMahon contacted STL about continuing the XFL lease once the bankruptcy proceedings are completed. That's assuming he is able to buy the league like many people think he is positioning himself to do

 

[93LEAFS]

I would think the economic plight of all 4 leagues right now has put expansion on hold for a while.

 

[KevFu]

The issue with the NBA is the owners actually wanting to split the pie even more and currently they don't want to. Another thing it'll only cause a bigger problem since to even compete you need superstars and right now the smaller markets are having a hard time getting those super stars to play for the team.

I seen arguments like that about Seattle that it would be over saturated if we had MLS, MLB, NBA, NHL and NFL.

Valid on splitting the pie. However, the the market saturation thing is overblown. There is a point at which markets would struggle to support multiple teams well. But that line is significantly higher than people believe it to be.

In the 1990s, Dallas, Miami, Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta became 4-sports cities; while Minnesota/St. Paul lost the North Stars and got the Wild back by the end of the decade. We can make arguments about how Atlanta, Miami, Phoenix aren't "good hockey markets" but no one would say that about Denver or Minnesota, and Denver is the smallest on the list by population in 1990:

Dallas 4.0 million
Miami: 3.2 million
Atlanta: 2.9 million
Twin Cities: 2.5 million
Phoenix: 2.2 million
Denver 1.9 million

So the Twin Cities/Denver average is 2.2 million people in 1990, and handle being four-sport cities just fine. Now, here's the 2020 populations of non-four sport markets 2.2 million or higher:

Seattle: 3.9 million, MLB/NFL, just getting NHL
Pittsburgh: 2.3 million, NFL/MLB/NHL
Cleveland: 2.0 million, NFL/MLB/NBA

St. Louis: 2.8 million, MLB/NHL (formerly NFL)
Baltimore: 2.8 million, MLB/NFL
Charlotte: 2.6 million, NBA/NFL
Las Vegas: 2.2 million, NHL/NFL just starting
Cincinnati: 2.2 million, MLB/NFL
Kansas City: 2.1 million, MLB/NFL
Indianapolis: 2.0 million, NFL/NBA
San Jose: 1.9 million, NFL/NHL
Nashville: 1.9 million, NFL/NHL

San Diego: 3.3 million, MLB
Orlando: 2.6 million, NBA
San Antonio: 2.6 million, NBA
Portland: 2.5 million, NBA
Sacramento: 2.4 million, NBA
Columbus: 2.1 million, NHL

Austin: 2.2 million, none

I would think the economic plight of all 4 leagues right now has put expansion on hold for a while.

Quite the opposite. The economic plight of sports leagues not getting revenue is why they'd accept a sudden influx of cash from expansion fees.

 

[93LEAFS]

Quite the opposite. The economic plight of sports leagues not getting revenue is why they'd accept a sudden influx of cash from expansion fees.

I'm not sure about that, it means further splitting revenue streams, and the other side is someone willing to invest to get a team right now, when they are unsure of when they will be able to sell tickets to full stadiums/arena's again.

Leagues like the NHL need to focus on how they can keep certain franchises alive if the 2020/21 season happens with no fans or very limited attendance. So many teams live by the gate, that they are likely to focus on protecting what they have before looking into expansion.

 

[Mightygoose]

For leagues like NHL and NBA, having their salary caps linked to revenues I don't see them looking at expansion as a quick way to raise cash. With their respective salary caps linked to revenues and having Covid it towards the end of their regular seasons, they're less impacted at this time.

MLB and MLS on the other hand, there are thoughts to expand to 32 anyways though no official process at this time. Both are more affected with a smaller pie to divide between the players (hence labour issues on both fronts) I see expansion on the horizon shortly after things return to normal.

With MLB's case, will they lay off the line that the stadium situations in Oakland and Tampa Bay be sorted first? Leases are up after the 2024 and 2027 respectively. will enough owners want the cash early?They'll need at least 4 suitable locations/ownership groups/stadiums to do that IMO.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I think talent-wise the NBA should be the absolute last league to consider expansion, as they have too many garbage teams already, but their revenues are so massive that I think that the willingness to buy in is much greater there than any other sport. Doesn't hurt that a brand-spanking new arena would also double as a premier concert/convention venue versus significantly less ancillary usage options for NFL and especially MLB parks.

I could name ten markets right now that would probably be willing and able to support an NBA team if someone put the money down for a team, I don't think I could remotely do the same for the other three.

....

Vancouver
Montreal
Hampton Roads
Pittsburgh
Louisville
2nd Chicago team
St. Louis
Kansas City
Albuquerque
Las Vegas
Seattle

Am I saying that all are probable? No. I would say that all are theoretically possible (though some would require massive concinving of existing owners to go along with it).

 

[KevFu]

I think talent-wise the NBA should be the absolute last league to consider expansion, as they have too many garbage teams already, but their revenues are so massive that I think that the willingness to buy in is much greater there than any other sport. Doesn't hurt that a brand-spanking new arena would also double as a premier concert/convention venue versus significantly less ancillary usage options for NFL and especially MLB parks.

I could name ten markets right now that would probably be willing and able to support an NBA team if someone put the money down for a team, I don't think I could remotely do the same for the other three.

....

Vancouver
Montreal
Hampton Roads
Pittsburgh
Louisville
2nd Chicago team
St. Louis
Kansas City
Albuquerque
Las Vegas
Seattle

Am I saying that all are probable? No. I would say that all are theoretically possible (though some would require massive concinving of existing owners to go along with it).

The NBA has more than enough talented basketball players to expand. College basketball is a quality product with 353 teams.

The reason the NBA and NHL APPEAR to have talent issues (but really don't) is because of the cap structure and how people build their teams.

There's no parity in the NBA and a lot of garbage teams because every team has their Alpha Star, their Secondary Guy, Their Third Guy, and then a bunch of cheap dudes. The top 3 make 75% of their cap and the rest of the guys make peanuts. So every team is thin. Except when a free agent who's a Top 60 player decides to join up with as the third guy on a team so they can win.

The small market teams can't get enough talent around their top draft pick future face of the franchise by the time that guy is a free agent. Partly because of how they draft players. So they cycle through "franchise guys" and any draft miss means they're doomed to suck.

Making a team of seven "third guys" that was deep and balanced is how the Warriors ran through the league. Of course, by winning and being good, their guys BECAME superstar Top 60 players. But few teams actually operate that way.

Milwaukee drafted Bogut 1st overall. He wasn't a franchise guy, so he became a role player with the Warriors, same with David Lee. Surround them with guys the Warriors hit home runs with (Curry, Thompson, Green) and they became a powerhouse because they were crazy deep.

In hockey, Vegas was good in year one because they were crazy deep. Via the expansion draft, they were all second line forwards and second pair defensemen.

The shortage in pro sports when it comes to expansion is actually talent EVALUATORS and not the talent.

 

[KevFu]

I'm not sure about that, it means further splitting revenue streams, and the other side is someone willing to invest to get a team right now, when they are unsure of when they will be able to sell tickets to full stadiums/arena's again.

Leagues like the NHL need to focus on how they can keep certain franchises alive if the 2020/21 season happens with no fans or very limited attendance. So many teams live by the gate, that they are likely to focus on protecting what they have before looking into expansion.

I disagree with your overall assessment.

1. If "how they can keep certain franchises alive" is an actual issue (it's not), a huge cash payment from an expansion team would be how, so not sure how you're using that to argue against expansion.

2. New teams do grow the revenue streams. They bring in TV viewers to the national contracts and therefore more TV revenue joins the league; and the big one is the merchandise sales. Expansion teams are usually massive additions to merch sales for the first few years because no one owns anything with the logo they unveiled yesterday on it. Vegas has been Top 4 in merch the last three years.

While the expansion fees and initial merch boom aren't sustainable, every subsequent sale is. Just like every league-wide sponsorship includes another team, every TV deal includes another team.

3. So many teams live by the gate is silly. Yes, 1.89 billion of 5.09 billion (37.1%) is gate revenue. But the cheap seats account for the smallest share of revenues. If suites and premium seating are sold, the team is fine and Joe Sixpack seats are drops in the bucket. Everyone argued Vegas would be giving away hundreds of upper bowl tickets as comps, Florida and Arizona stopped giving comps because the value of STH was so significantly higher and comps devalue that purchase for fans; so they had to eliminate comps to maintain their STH.

Look at the Islanders revenue growth moving from NVMC to Barclays. Fewer seats, fewer cheap seats, more suites = huge jump in revenues.

The people buying premium tickets aren't the people bearing the burden of the pandemic. They are corporations, not Joe Sixpack. Joe Sixpack can't afford to go to an NHL game anymore, which is a shame, but the corporate world has long left those people behind anyway. Look at your TV, all the people who were advertising before the pandemic are still advertising during the pandemic. And that's where the NHL gets the other 62.9% of its revenue from.