News & Notes XXIII: Brindy Beats the Team Into Shape

[geehaad]

Neither of our guys play that style of game. Not really comparable. Necas may try but he’s way too lanky to find all the quiet spaces on the ice those guys do.

I'm not doubting your assessment, here, but to hear it's based on his lankiness is a little curious to me. If you had said he couldn't play a game like Martin St Louis because of his lankiness, I'd get it, and since I don't really know the playing style of those 3 comparables, I'm not exactly sure what you're attempting to equate.

Are you saying that, due to his stature, he won't be able to find pockets in the defense where he can make unadulterated plays?

 

[Svechhammer]

Its all about how strong you are on your skates. You can be built like a tank, but if you aren't strong (Malik) its going to be wasted. Looking into Necas' scouting report, I find the following:

Slight of frame, Necas has very good balance and is difficult to knock off the puck.

Can't not like that. If that holds, he should be able to find those soft spots, but that's assuming he's not the primary puck mover in the zone, which has been one of his strong suits so far.

Plus, I guess I just don't see the difference between Necas and Svech here:

Give both a year or two in an NHL weight training regiment and we'll have a beast of a line when they're on the ice.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I see a difference. Svech is in front, Svech is smiling as if it's a walk in the park and Necas looks like he's gasping for breath. Advantage Svech.

 

[geehaad]

Well, it's harder work to carry the puck, now isn't it.

 

[Svechhammer]

That's the look you give when you look up and see Darling in the net thinking "oh shit, I'm about to score"

Svech was caught checking out the busty chick in the front row

 

[MinJaBen]

A really excellent thread on defensemen ranking and how Slavin stacks up.

 

[the halleJOKEL]

yes jaccob slavin really good yes

 

[Wolfpuck]

A really excellent thread on defensemen ranking and how Slavin stacks up.

Jaccob Slavin: "Check out all my blue. Lemme smash."

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Here's a readout of his key tweets.

Shot share aka Corsi aka CF% and Expected Goal Share (xGF%) are two key stats because they show which way the ice is tilted for a team when that player is on the ice. Relative to Teammate versions help to gauge how much one player contributes over their on-ice teammates on those key stats. (No stat is perfect, but these often provide insight - but that's why I show 21 stats after all.)

I'll talk about xGF% and Rel xGF% for today because the ONE JOB a defenseman has is to make sure his team pots more goals than the other team. No matter what style a coach uses, high pace or not, we want to see that in a top D. Since shooting % and goalie save % are pretty much out of the control of a defenseman, we remove their effect by using expected goals. This is a good thing if you're a defenseman in Carolina.

Now that I've taken you through SKATR practice, time to get into a game - look down the 21 players. There's one defenseman who has blue cells all the way across the grid. He's at the 94th percentile at CF% (let's call it "94p"). That player scores 92p at xGF% and he isn't being carried - his relative to teammates xGF% is at the 90th percentile.

But wait, there's more! Few defensemen face tougher competition (94p) while playing with teammates ranked at the 68th percentile. 18 of the top 20 start in the OZ more than this guy.

You want shot suppression? Yep. His CA ranks at 94p. But what about Game Score? 90th percentile. So what's wrong with him? I guess the Carolina PP isn't as powerful as Washington's so he won't get as many points. I guess he plays for a small market team with less media buzz and doesn't have the same teammate quality around him. But he's one of the best and it's a shame he gets ignored because writers and rankings and many fans focus so much on total points, even for D. His name is Jaccob Slavin.

 

[HisIceness]

When Aloe Blacc wrote his 2014 hit "The Man", he was really referring to Jaccob Slavin rather than himself.

 

[Unsustainable]

When you compare Dougie to Jaccob, holy cow, are Defense is stout.

 

[FreshSeabass]

Cool video series about the draft. I always wished they would do more of this stuff.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Canes have posted a job ad for a new in-game host.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

My retirement job is now open.

Nah, actually, my ideal retirement job is that Tarheel Traveler guy on WRAL.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Canes have posted a job ad for a new in-game host.

Does it say 22-29 year old attractive females only need apply or is that just implied?

At least based on what prior qualifications appeared to be.

 

[RibFrabcus]

Does it say 22-29 year old attractive females only need apply or is that just implied?

At least based on what prior qualifications appeared to be.

I think we've graduated to husky middle aged men.

 

[bleedgreen]

@ geehad. He named two very small guys in Kane and JG. Kuch plays a bit different than the other two but some points remain there. Kane and JG play a pure small guy game at the most elite level. They don’t do a ton of board play, they have that sixth sense to move the puck before any contact reaches them.

Expecting Necas to play at the level of those two is a rough expectation at the start no matter what his size. Given he’s tall he takes up way more space, plus a longer stick, it’s a ridiculous expectation. Imagine the possession bubble from a video game. Necas has a much larger circle than those other two. Even if he tries to play the same game he has notably less time before the gaps close. He’s going to get hit more. If he doesn’t he’s literally running away from all contact at 6’2” or wherever he’s at.

As such, he’s not going to play their game. His game will have more contact if he’s doing well. He’s wispy. Saying small guys can make it....that’s fine if they’re elite. Saying tall guys can make it just as well when built super light? Of course possible but a different animal altogether.

And Svech is supposed to be playing a power game. Necas looking more manly isn’t the best start, but I have no expectations of an 18 year old.

 

[geehaad]

And Svech is supposed to be playing a power game. Necas looking more manly isn’t the best start, but I have no expectations of an 18 year old.

Thanks for that explanation.

And, as I'm sure you're well-aware, that particular picture, nor the one of them sitting in the locker room, tells the whole tale of their objectively discernible whispiness. Plus, maybe look at the Pollyanna side of things: maybe Martin has been working his ass off (on?) and we have two manly boys rather than two whispy ones.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

IIRC, there was an article a while back that stated Necas went to a trainer about 2 years ago when he was something like 5'8", 140 lbs and now he's about 6'2", 190. A combination of natural growth cycle and a focus on both diet and training to increase muscle mass. Granted, keeping that weight on through the rigors of an NHL season is going to be tough, but his body has changed a lot since then and even since we drafted him (where his official combine height/weight was 6'1", 178lbs.)

 

[Unsustainable]

IIRC, there was an article a while back that stated Necas went to a trainer about 2 years ago when he was something like 5'8", 140 lbs and now he's about 6'2", 190. A combination of natural growth cycle and a focus on both diet and training to increase muscle mass. Granted, keeping that weight on through the rigors of an NHL season is going to be tough, but his body has changed a lot since then and even since we drafted him (where his official combine height/weight was 6'1", 178lbs.)

What was the size difference of Lindholm after a year in the NHL?

That year was critical to Necas, if Lindholm had that...

 

[HisIceness]

Cool video series about the draft. I always wished they would do more of this stuff.

Svechnikov in the thumbnail looks like he could be a small forward in the NBA.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Cool video series about the draft. I always wished they would do more of this stuff.

So in that video, anyone have an idea who were they talking about when they said "if he's available at 42"?

 

[Lempo]

When you compare Dougie to Jaccob, holy cow, are Defense is stout.

No, the stouts are all forwards.

 

[spockBokk]

So in that video, anyone have an idea who were they talking about when they said "if he's available at 42"?

My bets would be Beaudin (CHI first rounder) or more likely Drury, who we got at 42. That article Burnside wrote in late June for the Athletic had quotes from Canes' scouts who were very high on Drury. It also had quotes from Dundon actively questioning them as to why they were so high on him based on all the other draft lists, etc. Basically, the scout(s) had to say it wasn't the player you see now but who he can become...something to the effect of..."this guy is f-ing captain material..." if i recall correctly. Dundon wasn't questioning their mettle as a scout directly, but more so trying to get them to think outside of box. Like hey, you guys had Krug in development camp years ago but didn't sign him...why?, etc.

Beaudin was a guy the interviewed right up to the draft, which was also mentioned in that article. Maybe he was a guy they thought would slip or maybe he was a target if they could have gotten one of the 6-8 deals they were working on then done at the draft.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

My bets would be Beaudin (CHI first rounder) or more likely Drury, who we got at 42. That article Burnside wrote in late June for the Athletic had quotes from Canes' scouts who were very high on Drury. It also had quotes from Dundon actively questioning them as to why they were so high on him based on all the other draft lists, etc. Basically, the scout(s) had to say it wasn't the player you see now but who he can become...something to the effect of..."this guy is f-ing captain material..." if i recall correctly. Dundon wasn't questioning their mettle as a scout directly, but more so trying to get them to think outside of box. Like hey, you guys had Krug in development camp years ago but didn't sign him...why?, etc.

Beaudin was a guy the interviewed right up to the draft, which was also mentioned in that article. Maybe he was a guy they thought would slip or maybe he was a target if they could have gotten one of the 6-8 deals they were working on then done at the draft.

I didn't think it was Drury because right before that, they were talking about how the guy was a junk yard dog and already had a shot better than many NHLrs which didn't seem like Drury. Maybe that was a different player they were discussing, but the video made it seem like it was the same guy. Also, Drury seemed like a guy that would definitely be there at 42.

Anyhow, a fun listen.

EDIT: Mike Smith's tweet makes it sounds like that comment was about Svechnikov.

EDIT 2: I listened to it again and it doesn't seem like they are talking about Svech because it's a continuous discussion that ends with "if we can get him a 42". Maybe future episodes will shed more light.