New Red Line Report (Top Forwards)

[Hunter Gathers]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2007-05-28-forwards-draft_N.htm

I agree with every word Woodlief says about Esposito. Really feel his analysis of his game was about as well put as can be.

Click to read more...

 

[Hockey Hooligan]

thanks, good article. from a fantasy perspective who would you rather have- Gagner or Hamil? I have the 6th pick in my pool.

 

[McDoused]

thanks, good article. from a fantasy perspective who would you rather have- Gagner or Hamil? I have the 6th pick in my pool.

ganger hands down.

 

[whatthef]

Interresting read but the RLR is just ... bad.

 

[Johnnybegood13]

First time i've heard Nico Sacchetti's name mentioned in the same breath as the others,i have a cousin in Duluth who told me this kid is the next Theo Fleury (hopefully without the problems) at least. I think he's going to college for the next 4 years so it'll probably drop him down. hey,maybe the Flames can get him at 19

 

[MN_Gopher]

First time i've heard Nico Sacchetti's name mentioned in the same breath as the others,i have a cousin in Duluth who told me this kid is the next Theo Fleury (hopefully without the problems) at least. I think he's going to college for the next 4 years so it'll probably drop him down. hey,maybe the Flames can get him at 19

Sacchetti is a high school junior. He is comitted to the Univerisy of Minnesota Golden Gophers for 2008-09.

 

[buddahsmoka1]

ganger hands down.

I would take Hamill personally.

 

[Dream Big]

Another timely and good report from Woodlief.
He's correctly identified what each player does best what possible pitfalls are and I think stands behind his convictions. Hamill is definitely up there and Kane should be above Turris based on the league each played in. Turris is taller but may be genetically unable to put on weight. I'd consider putting Hamill on par with Turris. Three weeks and three days to go.

 

[kruezer]

I think Esposito answered some questions with his captaining of the U18 team.

I just strikes me that he is gonna become a solid third/fourth line center in the future, which is weird to say considering he was always looked at as a very talented guy, but I see him sliding to a bottom role ala Chris Gratton.

 

[haelwho]

thanks, good article. from a fantasy perspective who would you rather have- Gagner or Hamil? I have the 6th pick in my pool.

For fantasy? Gagner's your man.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

I would take Hamill personally.

For pure points, I think I'd agree. Hamill made a ton of strides after seemingly falling off the map.

 

[Hunter Gathers]

First time i've heard Nico Sacchetti's name mentioned in the same breath as the others,i have a cousin in Duluth who told me this kid is the next Theo Fleury (hopefully without the problems) at least. I think he's going to college for the next 4 years so it'll probably drop him down. hey,maybe the Flames can get him at 19

Pretty sure he'll be available in the 2nd round, too. And possibly the 3rd round. I don't think the Flames would have trouble getting him in the 2nd if they fell in love with him. I don't have him ranked nearly that high.

 

[Fozz]

Interresting read but the RLR is just ... bad.

Baseless comment.

I like RLR and their opinion as a scouting service is just as valuable as any other out there. I see them as a 31st NHL team and their evaluation of players is done the same way that NHL teams do theirs.

 

[Redwingsfan]

im surprised he has cherepanov there.

 

[Bryzga lol*]

im surprised he has cherepanov there.

And he didn't bring up the "coach's nightmare" issue again. But he did have to mention that he's Russian and we all know what they're like

 

[Rise from the Ashes]

AT LEAST COUTURE GETS SOME LOVE!!! finally...

 

[Walzy]

Pretty sure he'll be available in the 2nd round, too. And possibly the 3rd round. I don't think the Flames would have trouble getting him in the 2nd if they fell in love with him. I don't have him ranked nearly that high.

the Stars will get Sacchetti....believe me. They're high on him for year now. He's a boarderline 2nd/3rd rounder, so the only question is if Dallas has to use Minnesota's 2nd round pick or could get him with LA's 3rd rounder.

 

[hawksfan50]

What Woodlief fails to mention about Kane (even ignoring the size issue) is that of the "big 4" forwards at the top of his rankings list,Kane is by far the absolute worst of the bunch defensively--he couldn't backcheck his grandmother...he is also the least physical of any of the "big 4" --but none of that seems to matter given his dazzling offensive skills...but precisely ecause of this 1-way wonder,I HAVE REAL CONCERNS about Kane,so that of the "big 4",I think he is the RISKIEST pick of this bunch... UNLESS you believe you can teach him to back-check effectively (he will nEVER be physical,so forget that aspect) OR you believe you can hide his defensive weaknesses via other players on your team who are on the ice covering for him when they are on his shifts at even strength,THEN you may be in for huge headaches giving up goals when he is on the ice...OR you need to commit to changing your team's "style" to run and gun 8-5 style games...BUT trying to get Kane to fit into any other "system" will be a problem,IMO--he is at his best in quick
action/reaction WHEN HE HAS THE PUCK --or when others cough it up and he attacks; BUT when THEY HAVE THE PUCK and he is asked to defend,well it looks so futile you want to puke...whoever takes him,if he plays lots of minutes at even strength,you had better pray your goalie bails you out,because there will be lots of good scoring chances against ..the difference is--give Kane 5 even strength great scoring chances in a game and probably 3 are going in;give the opposition the same while he is on even strength on other shifts,and MAYBE your goalie or his other teamates on with him can save the day on 4 of them...so if that provides a +2 for Kane--you can win;HOWEVER if your goalie or team cannot save the day in these high calibre scoring chances against--you will either break even or LOSE ...KANE could mitigate the loss potential by helping your PP to betterscoring efficiency...BUT how much can that mitgation really help...

Take Chicago=30th =dead last in PP efficiency at just 11.8%...they were also 28th
worst in PP opportunities ...PITT for instance had 99 more PP chances than chicgo got and PITT's efficiency was 20.3% ...assuming an "improved" Blackhawks can mustert least 50% of the differential inPP opportunities that pITT had over them (ie. 50 more chances) and that KANE helps them improve from 11.8% to 20% effciency--this means KANE"S PP "value" is at 10 more goals on the differential chances make up PLUS approx an 8% improvement on the other 364 chances Chicago would have retained as per last season=another 29 PP goals =for at total PP value of 39 more PP goals...

THAT alone might be reason to take Kane and ignore the defensive problems by hiding his 5x5 minutes on the 4th line...

 

[Johnnybegood13]

Pretty sure he'll be available in the 2nd round, too. And possibly the 3rd round. I don't think the Flames would have trouble getting him in the 2nd if they fell in love with him. I don't have him ranked nearly that high.

Thats a small problem for the Flames as we don't have a 2nd or a 3rd pick this year,i think Sutter will trade his first this year though and get a couple more picks from it.

 

[Erika]

What Woodlief fails to mention about Kane (even ignoring the size issue) is that of the "big 4" forwards at the top of his rankings list,Kane is by far the absolute worst of the bunch defensively--he couldn't backcheck his grandmother...he is also the least physical of any of the "big 4" --but none of that seems to matter given his dazzling offensive skills...but precisely ecause of this 1-way wonder,I HAVE REAL CONCERNS about Kane,so that of the "big 4",I think he is the RISKIEST pick of this bunch... UNLESS you believe you can teach him to back-check effectively (he will nEVER be physical,so forget that aspect) OR you believe you can hide his defensive weaknesses via other players on your team who are on the ice covering for him when they are on his shifts at even strength,THEN you may be in for huge headaches giving up goals when he is on the ice...OR you need to commit to changing your team's "style" to run and gun 8-5 style games...BUT trying to get Kane to fit into any other "system" will be a problem,IMO--he is at his best in quick
action/reaction WHEN HE HAS THE PUCK --or when others cough it up and he attacks; BUT when THEY HAVE THE PUCK and he is asked to defend,well it looks so futile you want to puke...whoever takes him,if he plays lots of minutes at even strength,you had better pray your goalie bails you out,because there will be lots of good scoring chances against ..the difference is--give Kane 5 even strength great scoring chances in a game and probably 3 are going in;give the opposition the same while he is on even strength on other shifts,and MAYBE your goalie or his other teamates on with him can save the day on 4 of them...so if that provides a +2 for Kane--you can win;HOWEVER if your goalie or team cannot save the day in these high calibre scoring chances against--you will either break even or LOSE ...KANE could mitigate the loss potential by helping your PP to betterscoring efficiency...BUT how much can that mitgation really help...

Take Chicago=30th =dead last in PP efficiency at just 11.8%...they were also 28th
worst in PP opportunities ...PITT for instance had 99 more PP chances than chicgo got and PITT's efficiency was 20.3% ...assuming an "improved" Blackhawks can mustert least 50% of the differential inPP opportunities that pITT had over them (ie. 50 more chances) and that KANE helps them improve from 11.8% to 20% effciency--this means KANE"S PP "value" is at 10 more goals on the differential chances make up PLUS approx an 8% improvement on the other 364 chances Chicago would have retained as per last season=another 29 PP goals =for at total PP value of 39 more PP goals...

THAT alone might be reason to take Kane and ignore the defensive problems by hiding his 5x5 minutes on the 4th line...

I was saying all year long that Kane is horrible defensively and that some team might be afraid of his 1 dimensional game !! PLus, he is undersize and not physical at all !! Talk about big bust's percentage on this player !! He is by far the riskiest pick of the top 5... but given his offensive strenghts, some other will grab him. He is far from being the surefire 1st overall pick this year, unlike many thinks on this board.

 

[Hockey Hooligan]

I was saying all year long that Kane is horrible defensively and that some team might be afraid of his 1 dimensional game !! PLus, he is undersize and not physical at all !! Talk about big bust's percentage on this player !! He is by far the riskiest pick of the top 5... but given his offensive strenghts, some other will grab him. He is far from being the surefire 1st overall pick this year, unlike many thinks on this board.

Who would you take 1st?

 

[usiel]

Just my 2cs but with this even draft the top 5 forwards could be pulled out of hat and it likely would be 'wrong', heh. Kane/Cherepanov are the only two that might slide a few spots ala Kessel.

 

[Erika]

Who would you take 1st?

In my opinion, it will be between Jakub Voracek and James Van Riemsdyk. They are the complete packages, nice upside and have the less chances to busts. The Hawks are in need of offensive wizard, so Kane has some chances to go 1st overall because of this factor, but he is not a true 1st overall material... just too many flaws. I don't see how Kyle Turris, Alexei Cherepanov (because of the russian transfer) or Alzner could go 1st overall, because Voaracek and Van Riemsdyk are simply better.

In a mock draft top 6, I can see this happening:

1- Chicago : James Van Riemsdyk

2- Philadelphia: Jakub Voracek

3- Phoenix: Patrick Kane

4- Los Angeles: Karl Alzner (heard that LA is very high on him)

5- Washington: Alexei Cherepanov (the idea of playing with countrymen Semin or Ovechkin is just too attactive to past...there's almost no chance in hell that this guy bust playing with theses guys)

6- Edmonton: Kyle Turris (this will be the best thing that can happen to Oilers fans in a long time if Turris slip to them)

 

[hawksfan50]

HOWEVER--Chicago is under pressure to improve ASAP---the only guy I see as getting a shot THIS YEAR is KANE...if they take him at #1 ,the ignre his defensive flaws-put him in to fix the worst PP in the NHL,and eith hide him 5x5 on the 4th line,OR devise protection schemes to cover his defensive flaws which will allow more minutes at even strength..oR just throw all defense out the window,go to an all out attack system and hope to win 8-6 ... I don't know how any of that will turn out...
KANE as no more offensive upside-his quick action/reaction game offensively is aleady top-notch and you cn't each that style any better..

VORACEK is the next ETA--at least 1 yr more in jr. He should get betteras he gets even stronger...


JVR--needs 2 yrs of "maturing" in the NCAA...


TURRIS-at least 2 yrs in the weight room to bulk up -BUT also he is a god student taking a tough Business Program at Wisconsin--some fear that he might just want to complete the entire 4 yrs toget his degree...

Chicago's impatience to improve ASAP would therefore dictate KANE or possbly Voracek since they involve the quickest ETA's...


OR --Chicago might trade the pick fr proven NHL talent + a later pick in round one--perhaps in a pckage deal with other Chicago assets..

IF I'm pickng NORMALLY -I would advise Chicago to take TURRIS or JVR as better fits and less risk of busting...but they will not be thinking NORMALLY in terms of development time..thus either they will risk on Kane or Voracek helping sooner,OR they will tade the pick...

 

[Dr.Sens(e)]

I'm not sure you can call Kane one-dimensional given the multiple dimensions to his offsenive game (playmaker and goalscorer). As to his defensive abilities, that is probably #10 on the list of things are looking for in Kane. Defence you can teach and when you're talking about a bluechip offensive prospect, that is not a major concern at this point.

Just as an example, Hossa and Bonk were regarded as one dimensional offensive players and each ended up being one of the best two way forwards in their respective draft classes).

I'm not saying Kane will become great defensively, but I don't think his downside (Kyle Wellwood) is that bad, especially when you have a Brad Richards-Daniel Briere type upside.