Blue Jays Discussion: New players, new uniform, new thread

[Discoverer]

What's the starting outfield for the season.

Gurriel Jr, Grichuk, Hernandez

Assuming opening day is a lefty (Sale or Rodriguez) I'm guessing Gurriel, Grichuk, Alford. Teoscar DH.

 

[phillipmike]

Keith Law’s top 100 prospects.

https://theathletic.com/1627163/2020/02/24/keith-laws-top-100-prospects-for-2020

11. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Pearson bounced back last year from a lost 2018 season where he threw just one inning before the Arizona Fall League. A dominant 2019 campaign saw him strike out 104 batters in 83.2 innings between High A and Double A before a late-August promotion to Triple A that left him on the cusp of the big leagues. Pearson throws hard, sitting 97-100 mph and occasionally bumping 101-102, with a fierce slider that’s usually 86-90 when he starts but up to 92 when he’s pitched in relief. He even has some feel for a changeup that’s especially impressive given how hard he throws, with zero platoon split in 2019. He’s a good athlete and an extremely hard worker who looks and throws like a top-of-the-rotation starter, and the injuries he suffered in 2018 were flukes rather than anything related to his delivery. It’s control over command right now, but there’s no mechanical reason he can’t get to above-average command in time. As long as he keeps ramping up his workload, and maybe throws more quality strikes, he should end up at the top of a rotation in a few years.

73. Jordan Groshans, 3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Groshans was the Jays’ first-round pick in 2018 and got off to a terrific start in 2019 in the full-season Midwest League, hitting .337/.427/.482 in 23 games for Lansing before a left foot injury ended his year. Groshans has a pure hitter’s swing and has shown an elite ability to make adjustments to pitchers so far in his brief pro tenure. He rotates his hips early, and the power he has shown to date comes more from his hand strength than his legs — although that’s as much a timing issue as anything, and if it ever becomes an issue it’s probably fixable. A third baseman in high school and in 2018, Groshans moved to short last year and wasn’t terrible, but third or second remain more likely long-term positions for him. If he improves at short enough to stay there, his average/contact/OBP combination would make him a potential star even without big power. A full, healthy year in 2020 will help establish just how advanced his bat is and whether he has the power to be a star even in a corner.

76. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The top college pitcher — and the second one selected — in the 2019 draft, Manoah had a dominant spring for West Virginia, punching out 144 batters against 27 walks in 108 innings for the Mountaineers. He’ll sit 94-95 deep into games, touching 98, with a four-pitch mix that includes an above-average changeup at 86-88 with great arm speed. His breaking stuff is less consistent, with the slider more of a chase pitch for righties while the curveball is more effective in or near the zone. He’s very big at 6′6″ and 260 pounds, and he pitches with intent, attacking hitters consistently with his fastball to set up everything else, including, quite often, more fastballs. He pitches from the stretch all the time, which is atypical but not a red flag, and was used a little heavily by West Virginia in the spring. Other than that, he checks all the boxes for a mid-rotation starter.

89. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays

Martinez was just 17 in the GCL but hit 7 homers, good for second in the league behind a 21-year-old org player, while also showing the plate discipline of a player a few years older. Signed in 2018 for $3.5 million, Martinez has impact tools across the board, with big-time bat speed and raw power already, as well as a 60 or better arm and great hands in the field. He’s a bit thickly built and is going to be very strong when he fills out, so the odds are he’ll end up at third base rather than at short, with a good shot to be above-average at the hot corner. He’d gotten away from the leg kick he used as an amateur but restored it last summer and went on a tear to finish his first pro season, hitting 6 of those 7 homers in August, showing the ability to hit velocity and pick up breaking stuff as well. He’s still so young that you want to temper your enthusiasm, but he could be the Jays’ best prospect in a year.

Surprised the Jays have 4 prospects on his list. Pearson is a no brainer and he loved Manoah from the draft. Disappointed that SWR isn’t here but he is still very raw and has a lot of time.

Big comment about Martinez potentially being our best prospect in a year. Just an unreal 2nd and 3rd wave coming after the first.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[phillipmike]

Worth noting that Hatch was hitting 96 mph yesterday. Pitcher an inning with a fly out and 2 ks.

If he is consistently in the mid 90s with his top end spin rate, then this is a legit rotation option.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

He should just say "Scrabble" like the rest of us have been doing since 2007.

 

[canucksfan]

Worth noting that Hatch was hitting 96 mph yesterday. Pitcher an inning with a fly out and 2 ks.

If he is consistently in the mid 90s with his top end spin rate, then this is a legit rotation option.

Some good buzz around him.

Yamaguchi had a rough outing today

 

[The Nemesis]

He should just say "Scrabble" like the rest of us have been doing since 2007.

I think he just wanted to show off that he knows how to spell it (or took 30 seconds to type enough of it in on Fangraphs to get the correct spelling given to him)

 

[The Nemesis]

Keith Law’s top 100 prospects.

https://theathletic.com/1627163/2020/02/24/keith-laws-top-100-prospects-for-2020









Surprised the Jays have 4 prospects on his list. Pearson is a no brainer and he loved Manoah from the draft. Disappointed that SWR isn’t here but he is still very raw and has a lot of time.

Big comment about Martinez potentially being our best prospect in a year. Just an unreal 2nd and 3rd wave coming after the first.

It's almost like the front office knows what it's doing!

But that couldn't possibly be true, right?

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

It's almost like the front office knows what it's doing!

But that couldn't possibly be true, right?

To be fair, and fully acknowledging the front-office has a done fine job collecting talent, I don't think we should be C-Walking on the graves of the "Shapkins" disapprovers just yet.

Having four to five prospects on top-100 lists is great. However, organizations such as the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins have ~five 2020 top-100 prospects, while also having competed (i.e. playoffs births/runs/winning records) at the major league level over the last three years. Those front-offices know what they're doing, and in two of the cases under harsher economic conditions than the Blue Jays. That's the type of results one should be striving for. (Not to cross pollinate sports, but its the level that Masai Ujiri's last two front-offices have achieved in the NBA.)

Until this front-office proves the ability to multi-task (major league success coupled with talent acquisition and development), they'll be nothing more than average to mediocre. And it may seem harsh, however when two of those franchises who have clearly separated themselves from an operational perspective are in your division, its an unfortunate reality. Just my honest take.

 

[phillipmike]

https://www.mlb.com/news/cult-heroes-for-all-30-major-league-teams

Blue Jays: Ricky Romero
A first-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2005 MLB Draft, Romero won 27 games over his first two seasons with Toronto in 2009 and '10. He then fully broke out in 2011, going 15-11 with a 2.92 ERA while earning his first (and only) All-Star selection. Unfortunately, injuries derailed Romero's career, limiting him to just 34 more starts after that '11 campaign. More »

 

[TheBeastCoast]

To be fair, and fully acknowledging the front-office has a done fine job collecting talent, I don't think we should be C-Walking on the graves of the "Shapkins" disapprovers just yet.

Having four to five prospects on top-100 lists is great. However, organizations such as the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins have ~five 2020 top-100 prospects, while also having competed (i.e. playoffs births/runs/winning records) at the major league level over the last three years. Those front-offices know what they're doing, and in two of the cases under harsher economic conditions than the Blue Jays. That's the type of results one should be striving for. (Not to cross pollinate sports, but its the level that Masai Ujiri's last two front-offices have achieved in the NBA.)

Until this front-office proves the ability to multi-task (major league success coupled with talent acquisition and development), they'll be nothing more than average to mediocre. And it may seem harsh, however when two of those franchises who have clearly separated themselves from an operational perspective are in your division, its an unfortunate reality. Just my honest take.

This is definitely a fair take but I would add that the test for the front office you described above is one this group hasnt had the opportunity to take yet. The Twins are not long out of being in the exact same point the Jay's are in today. But really in any sport the ripping it to the studs and collecting talent is the easy part of the job while taking that talent and making a winner out of it shows who actually knows what they are doing. Next 2 years or so are going to tell us what this front office really is.

 

[Cor]

Any word on pitchers/players for Wednesday?

Heading to the game tomorrow.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

This is definitely a fair take but I would add that the test for the front office you described above is one this group hasnt had the opportunity to take yet. The Twins are not long out of being in the exact same point the Jay's are in today. But really in any sport the ripping it to the studs and collecting talent is the easy part of the job while taking that talent and making a winner out of it shows who actually knows what they are doing. Next 2 years or so are going to tell us what this front office really is.

Yep, and those are fair and accurate points. This is indeed a "grade still pending" situation. If the core develops the way many of us believe they can, and the front-office subsidizes them with good support pieces, that's a check mark. If the time comes for them to be extended and they are through their late twenties, that's a check mark. If the opposite occurs in both examples, its an X. And so on and so forth.

 

[Mach85]

To be fair, and fully acknowledging the front-office has a done fine job collecting talent, I don't think we should be C-Walking on the graves of the "Shapkins" disapprovers just yet.

Having four to five prospects on top-100 lists is great. However, organizations such as the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins have ~five 2020 top-100 prospects, while also having competed (i.e. playoffs births/runs/winning records) at the major league level over the last three years. Those front-offices know what they're doing, and in two of the cases under harsher economic conditions than the Blue Jays. That's the type of results one should be striving for. (Not to cross pollinate sports, but its the level that Masai Ujiri's last two front-offices have achieved in the NBA.)

Until this front-office proves the ability to multi-task (major league success coupled with talent acquisition and development), they'll be nothing more than average to mediocre. And it may seem harsh, however when two of those franchises who have clearly separated themselves from an operational perspective are in your division, its an unfortunate reality. Just my honest take.

I think it's absolutely fair to make that general comparison, as Masai has instituted a program that hits all of the elements needed to produce a franchise that isn't just healthy, but thrives. And the general principles he stands for can be applied to any organization really, but it's especially transferrable to sports (regardless of league). Masai does his homework and hits on his draft picks (of course, credit to the people he surrounds himself with that he trusts to do legwork). And this isn't just high picks we're talking about (which aren't the gimmes people sometimes think they are anyway), but he consistently selects players that outplay their draft slot and thus create surplus value no matter where they're picked. These scouting chops also consistently appear in the long list of undrafted FAs he's brought in year-to-year.

We all know development is inextricably tied to draft-day success, and the 905 program was and still is ahead of its time. It provides players with the room to grow and actualize potential. He also fully understands the importance of culture and doesn't just pick the BPA but picks players who fit the Ujiri mould. Developmental success and bringing in guys tailor-made for the culture of the team allows the franchise to maximize windows of contention and be better equipped than most to withstand the negative impact of random variables like injuries, which gives an edge over other teams in an area that's a market inefficiency over a long season (McKechnie is another part of establishing that edge.

Lastly, he's a builder in the truest sense and understands that he can't do everything himself. So he delegates to people he trusts and installs them at every level of the organization; so, people like Bobby Webster, Adrian Griffin, and of course Nick Nurse, are then able to carry out his vision and aid in its consistent implementation. What enables Masai to do that last part is that he treats people with respect and makes them feel valued, which requires checking his own ego for the greater good. Some hubris helps in building organizational confidence and a shared mission statement, and Masai definitely has that ("f*** Brooklyn!"). But leaving the ego unchecked creates blind spots and prevents growth and associated adjustments that must occur to maintain a competitive edge and manage various contingencies. Teams like the Knicks haven't figured that part out yet. It'll be a sad day if Masai leaves this franchise, especially for New York. Masai really should go full Phil Jackson and write a book though - it'd be incredibly illuminating.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

I think it's absolutely fair to make that general comparison, as Masai has instituted a program that hits all of the elements needed to produce a franchise that isn't just healthy, but thrives. And the general principles he stands for can be applied to any organization really, but it's especially transferrable to sports (regardless of league). Masai does his homework and hits on his draft picks (of course, credit to the people he surrounds himself with that he trusts to do legwork). And this isn't just high picks we're talking about (which aren't the gimmes people sometimes think they are anyway), but he consistently selects players that outplay their draft slot and thus create surplus value no matter where they're picked. These scouting chops also consistently appear in the long list of undrafted FAs he's brought in year-to-year.

We all know development is inextricably tied to draft-day success, and the 905 program was and still is ahead of its time. It provides players with the room to grow and actualize potential. He also fully understands the importance of culture and doesn't just pick the BPA but picks players who fit the Ujiri mould. Developmental success and bringing in guys tailor-made for the culture of the team allows the franchise to maximize windows of contention and be better equipped than most to withstand the negative impact of random variables like injuries, which gives an edge over other teams in an area that's a market inefficiency over a long season (McKechnie is another part of establishing that edge.

Lastly, he's a builder in the truest sense and understands that he can't do everything himself. So he delegates to people he trusts and installs them at every level of the organization; so, people like Bobby Webster, Adrian Griffin, and of course Nick Nurse, are then able to carry out his vision and aid in its consistent implementation. What enables Masai to do that last part is that he treats people with respect and makes them feel valued, which requires checking his own ego for the greater good. Some hubris helps in building organizational confidence and a shared mission statement, and Masai definitely has that ("f*ck Brooklyn!"). But leaving the ego unchecked creates blind spots and prevents growth and associated adjustments that must occur to maintain a competitive edge and manage various contingencies. Teams like the Knicks haven't figured that part out yet. It'll be a sad day if Masai leaves this franchise, especially for New York. Masai really should go full Phil Jackson and write a book though - it'd be incredibly illuminating.

Very well said. In regards to him one day leaving, which he ultimately will at some point, my hope is that the infrastructure he's set up will continue pushing the locomotive down the track. Denver, and their sustained success, leads me to believe it will. This is not exclusive to sports, its seen throughout good to great companies throughout business.

And to bring it back to baseball, and to provide some credit, Mark Shapiro's infrastructure still exists in Cleveland.

 

[Mach85]

Very well said. In regards to him one day leaving, which he ultimately will at some point, my hope is that the infrastructure he's set up will continue pushing the locomotive down the track. Denver, and their sustained success, leads me to believe it will. This is not exclusive to sports, its seen throughout good to great companies throughout business.

And to bring it back to baseball, and to provide some credit, Mark Shapiro's infrastructure still exists in Cleveland.

That's a good point, and we have to hope he doesn't bring his people with him if he does leave. Shapiro has shown an ability to bring in good people here in Toronto as well, and we have to hope that there are still enough of them remaining with Cherington and Sanders now out.

 

[Discoverer]

To be fair, and fully acknowledging the front-office has a done fine job collecting talent, I don't think we should be C-Walking on the graves of the "Shapkins" disapprovers just yet.

Having four to five prospects on top-100 lists is great. However, organizations such as the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins have ~five 2020 top-100 prospects, while also having competed (i.e. playoffs births/runs/winning records) at the major league level over the last three years. Those front-offices know what they're doing, and in two of the cases under harsher economic conditions than the Blue Jays. That's the type of results one should be striving for. (Not to cross pollinate sports, but its the level that Masai Ujiri's last two front-offices have achieved in the NBA.)

Until this front-office proves the ability to multi-task (major league success coupled with talent acquisition and development), they'll be nothing more than average to mediocre. And it may seem harsh, however when two of those franchises who have clearly separated themselves from an operational perspective are in your division, its an unfortunate reality. Just my honest take.

Minnesota is an odd comparison to make considering part of getting where they are today is that they started rebuilding early in the Anthopoulos era.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Minnesota is an odd comparison to make considering part of getting where they are today is that they started rebuilding early in the Anthopoulos era.

Minnesota is an odd comparison to make considering part of getting where they are today is that they started rebuilding early in the Anthopoulos era.

Not a bad point, though I will say that the Twins' front office is entering its fourth season after taking the helm in late 2016, have had two gone two for three in terms of playoff appearances, and boast the same amount of top-100 prospects as the Blue Jays this year.

My main point is that, in today's MLB, the majority of the front-offices can succeed at one thing if that thing is what they're concentrating on.

- If you can draft\develop pitchers to the point where you have multiple assets ranked highly on prospect lists, but you can't do the same for position players, and your major league roster is flawed\not good (aka the Anthopolous)...
- If you can develop great position players, but can't develop pitching prospects to align with their window (the 15-17 Marlins)...
- If you can have a good major league roster that competes for the playoffs, but have a bottom five farm system (aka the Dombrowski)...

I'm not impressed. You've proven to be able to do a certain portion of your job description while neglecting several other key portions.

 

[Discoverer]

Not a bad point, though I will say that the Twins' front office is entering its fourth season after taking the helm in late 2016, have had two gone two for three in terms of playoff appearances, and boast the same amount of top-100 prospects as the Blue Jays this year.

Right, but my point is basically that current management didn't have to do much in order to turn them into a playoff team. Looking at 2019, they made three really good additions (Cruz, Odorizzi, Pineda). That's huge, obviously, but literally every other player who was worth at least 2 fWAR for them (Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, Buxton, Arraez, Berrios, Gibson, Rogers) was in the organization before they took over.

Obviously the Jays had a few key long-term pieces to build around (Vlad, Jansen) but that doesn't compare to the shear volume of above average (and a few star) pieces the Twins group inherited.

(But I'm not disagreeing with your overall point in any way... the Jays look like they're heading in the same direction as the Twins, but they don't deserve praise purely for moving in that direction; lots of teams look like things are moving in the right direction during a rebuild. They'll deserve praise when they get there.)

 

[Canada4Gold]

Nate Pearson 3 up 3 down all strikeouts.

Merryweather followed that up with 2 more K's before giving up 2 hits and a run to end the inning

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Right, but my point is basically that current management didn't have to do much in order to turn them into a playoff team. Looking at 2019, they made three really good additions (Cruz, Odorizzi, Pineda). That's huge, obviously, but literally every other player who was worth at least 2 fWAR for them (Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Sano, Buxton, Arraez, Berrios, Gibson, Rogers) was in the organization before they took over.

Obviously the Jays had a few key long-term pieces to build around (Vlad, Jansen) but that doesn't compare to the shear volume of above average (and a few star) pieces the Twins group inherited.

(But I'm not disagreeing with your overall point in any way... the Jays look like they're heading in the same direction as the Twins, but they don't deserve praise purely for moving in that direction; lots of teams look like things are moving in the right direction during a rebuild. They'll deserve praise when they get there.)

All fair points.

Though now you have me wondering what the Blue Jay's 2019 record is if they sign Grandal and Bailey, and trade for Sonny Gray (+~11.7 fWAR swing). A fool's exercise, I know.

 

[landy92mack29]

3 Ks on 10 pitches is good I guess

 

[aingefan]

Nate Pearson 3 up 3 down all strikeouts.

Merryweather followed that up with 2 more K's before giving up 2 hits and a run to end the inning

I’m kinda pulling for Merryweather and his big arm.

 

[Discoverer]

All fair points.

Though now you have me wondering what the Blue Jay's 2019 record is if they sign Grandal and Bailey, and trade for Sonny Gray (+~11.7 fWAR swing). A fool's exercise, I know.

Probably something approaching .500, but still not very good. Right now, they're basically where the 2015 Twins were: coming off a rough stretch of disappointing seasons (though not nearly as awful as the Twins were) with a ton of young talent in place and/or about to break onto the roster and in decent enough position to push towards a .500 record. I would be happy with that... though I would be less happy if they followed it up with a 100+ loss season.

 

[Canada4Gold]

3 Ks on 10 pitches is good I guess

Arden Zwelling said it was 12 pitches. Don'y trust these spring training pitch counts. They often go every strike out on 3 pitches, every walk on 4 pitches, every ball in play on 1 pitch. Though it's odd they had 4 pitches to the first batter. Zwelling also said Merryweather's 3rd batter was a 10 pitch affair before he gave up a double, gameday has it at 1 pitch.