New draft lottery formula?

[Go Wings]

The draft lottery is one of the dumbest things the NHL has ever come up with and is completely unnecessary.

There should be no lottery at all. The team that finished dead last should get the top pick. All they need to do is put in a provision that you can only get the top pick once every 5 years.

 

[jkutswings]

I have a new formula:

It's based on geography. The closer your arena is to the intersection of I-75 and Woodward Avenue, the higher your draft pick.

Alexis, you'll look great in red and white.

 

[Bench]

The draft lottery is one of the dumbest things the NHL has ever come up with and is completely unnecessary.

There should be no lottery at all. The team that finished dead last should get the top pick. All they need to do is put in a provision that you can only get the top pick once every 5 years.

No doubt. The NFL does just fine without a lottery system.

If you suck that bad, cool, take your #1 pick. And agreed, just make it spaced out so you can only get it every few years.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No doubt. The NFL does just fine without a lottery system.

If you suck that bad, cool, take your #1 pick. And agreed, just make it spaced out so you can only get it every few years.

No. I'm in favor of simple reverse order. It works for baseball and football. You can't do it in basketball because one player can literally turn a team around in the NBA. Like Lebron himself made Cleveland a contender. He left and they were worst in the league. He came back and they were a contender. He left again and they're the worst in the league again.

Hockey is closer to the other two in terms of the effect one player can have on a roster.

I'm not just saying it because Detroit is at the bottom right now. If a team is so bad they get multiple high draft picks in a row, the fans will/should start to revolt. The bigger problem of Edmonton getting multiple 1OAs in that short span is that they weren't the worst team in the league for each of those years. They lucked into 1OAs that they shouldn't have gotten. Or now with New Jersey where they got a couple 1OAs through luck rather than being the worst team in the league. If you are spacing out picks so bad teams don't keep getting the best players... you should just keep the lottery. The whole point of reverse order is so that teams who were the worst get the most help to get better.

We had a couple GMs latch onto the idea of "we won't be better than mediocre, so let's just tell fans that we will suck for awhile and hope they buy in" in Hinkie and whoever was running the show in Houston for the Astros. And we had entire fanbases completely discount anything except for winning a title. If you're an 8 seed going into the playoffs, you might as well just lose out prior to that and get your 1% chance at a top pick instead of a 10% chance you might shock a team.

Rebuilding should not be a multi-year tear the foundation down and we will be an abomination for a sustained period. That is where we are at in sports nowadays and with the salary cap and needing to offer term to get guys to go anywhere, it's a reality of the system. But it shouldn't fall to "we're going to be so bad we are unwatchable for about three years and then maybe we can look ok".

Give me more Billy Beanes who try to win at the rigged game by doing something unique like targetting undervalued players as opposed to Sam Hinkie's let's be so bad that we have no other choice than to get good players and just hope to god the fans are there on the other side.

 

[SCD]

I don't understand that, either. If anything, they should expand the playoffs on each side to accommodate the team or two in each conference who could have realistically pushed their way in over the last ten games.

It is all about decreasing the playoff time table to minimize the effect starting next season.

As Trump stated today, the new guidelines will be based on regional infection rates (and most likely ICU bed availability). I would expect this to last 6-12 months. We cannot control the spread using the China model because our society would not tolerate the confinement. We will only see a decrease in the active infections when most people have contracted the disease or there is a vaccine. Some epidemiologist do not expect a summer slow down because we do not have any natural immunity. That said, I only see sporting events happening without people attending the games through the summer. With our sports starved nation, TV audiences will likely set records if they do pull it off. Also, too many risks if the schedule is not condensed.

 

[Retire91]

Read a few posts up. Someone floated the idea of some sort of tournament for the crappy teams to compete in to determine draft pick.

lol omg that is a really stupid idea

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

If there is a losers tournament and the BEST loser gets the 1st overall, I am done watching the NHL.

Fun question I thought of when hearing this.

If the tournament only locked in the first overall pick I would lean towards taking it if it meant I knew we got second and Byfield. But that would be the only scenario, I mean I wouldn't be thrilled about the switch in rules, but going from an 18.5% shot at Lafreniere to a 100% shot at Byfield wouldn't have me too bummed out.

 

[FireBird71]

Just end the season...see you in the Fall...The teams that are not in the playoffs enter the lottery and the rest pick in order of current standings

 

[Bench]

Just end the season...see you in the Fall...The teams that are not in the playoffs enter the lottery and the rest pick in order of current standings

I think this happens, but they have to wait it out. Right now models are showing the peak at around 9-14 weeks from now, depending on how well communities follow social distancing guidelines.

 

[Retire91]

No doubt. The NFL does just fine without a lottery system.

If you suck that bad, cool, take your #1 pick. And agreed, just make it spaced out so you can only get it every few years.

I kinda thing its hard to compare other sports. NFL does not need as much development as NHL. I mean its not often that a 1st overall is not on the team next season but they might be playing limited sheltered minutes. NFL number 1 picks almost always dominate starting day 1.

I think NHL has to have the highest will they won't they of all sports which I think makes the lottery kinda dumb. Or raise the draft age so teams know what they are truly getting.

 

[hkydave04]

I’d like the 1st pick but saying we deserve a reward for sucking so hard is a weird mentality. Maybe I’m just not used to it yet.

It's not a reward. There is no grey area in how bad we are, and to even think of a different format would probably lesson us picking 1. I say leave it alone or just draft according to position in the standing

 

[Bench]

I kinda thing its hard to compare other sports. NFL does not need as much development as NHL. I mean its not often that a 1st overall is not on the team next season but they might be playing limited sheltered minutes. NFL number 1 picks almost always dominate starting day 1.

I think NHL has to have the highest will they won't they of all sports which I think makes the lottery kinda dumb. Or raise the draft age so teams know what they are truly getting.

I hear you. The only reason I suggested not allowing multiple #1 overall picks is as a compromise to the current lottery. The current lottery was intended to dissuade tanking. If that's your goal, then if a team is genuinely tanking, they can't gobble up multiple #1 overall picks.

If the league is hellbent on it, that's the best compromise I could think of that at least guarantees if you have a real stinker year, you at least get the #1 pick but can't take multiple generational talents consecutively.

 

[Retire91]

I think I also agree with you. I like a tanking deterant but when that tanking deterant just makes the situation worse its not a good solution. Oil should never have gotten 4 first overalls in a row, Philly should never have gotten that second. I think the lottery results are worse than teams tanking

 

[Winger98]

It is all about decreasing the playoff time table to minimize the effect starting next season.

As Trump stated today, the new guidelines will be based on regional infection rates (and most likely ICU bed availability). I would expect this to last 6-12 months. We cannot control the spread using the China model because our society would not tolerate the confinement. We will only see a decrease in the active infections when most people have contracted the disease or there is a vaccine. Some epidemiologist do not expect a summer slow down because we do not have any natural immunity. That said, I only see sporting events happening without people attending the games through the summer. With our sports starved nation, TV audiences will likely set records if they do pull it off. Also, too many risks if the schedule is not condensed.

If the NHL can start playing games, in some way, by May 1st, they'd be just one month behind their normal schedule. Rather than limiting the playoffs to fewer teams, I'd rather see them go to some shorter series. Play the first couple of rounds as best-of-five rather than best-of-seven. And if they're not going to play in front of an audience, I'd pick a location or two to play all of the games, and then just crank through several games a day. That way you can limit the dangers of air travel, hotels, etc.

Also, by limiting locations, you can avoid playing hockey in a place like Arizona in July.

 

[Oddbob]

Anything that gives us lesser odds or losing out on 1st overall is bullshit! Include the other teams in some BS tourney if you want, we already literally locked up last place for Pete's sake, no more games needed for us to wrap that up. Clearly we would lose in some tourney as we were historically bad, and the non playoff teams that missed, some of them are still quite good teams so them winning a tourney is very likely and a load of bullshit!

 

[lidstromiscool]

Don't think the NHLPA would ever go for a tournament where the winner gets 1oa. Not sure it's a great look when Nielson and Abdelkader are playing to win a tournament where the prize will take their roster spot. Not that I would have a problem with that scenario.

 

[SCD]

If the NHL can start playing games, in some way, by May 1st, they'd be just one month behind their normal schedule. Rather than limiting the playoffs to fewer teams, I'd rather see them go to some shorter series. Play the first couple of rounds as best-of-five rather than best-of-seven. And if they're not going to play in front of an audience, I'd pick a location or two to play all of the games, and then just crank through several games a day. That way you can limit the dangers of air travel, hotels, etc.

Also, by limiting locations, you can avoid playing hockey in a place like Arizona in July.

I just don't think May is a realistic timetable.

I do agree trying to isolate players to a limited number of arenas would be best. One positive case during the playoffs jeopardizes the entire playoffs. Then the NHL really looks bad.

 

[Habs10025]

The regular season is likely over and if it is the draft order will be set by winning percentage . To finish the regular season they league will need to return no latter than the first week in June .

Players will need a one week training camp and it will take another three weeks at least to play the remaining games with 3 to 4 days off before starting the playoffs lasting around 2 months with the final ending in the middle of Sept .

If the regular season is over and the league return only for the playoffs it's July to Sept.

 

[Pavels Dog]

The idea of a tournament where teams play for the top picks is one of those ideas that imo falls flat in reality. What kind of hockey is a tournament between the worst teams in the league with a very questionable amount of motivation for most of the players (especially older players or upcoming UFAs)? And what is the original purpose of the draft to begin with? I know it's not that the best of the worst teams should get the best talent.

Expanding the playoffs to include more teams makes more sense but also comes with a bunch of issues. At least that could be FUN. It could be something truly exciting with more chances of upsets and unlikely succcess stories.

 

[Retire91]

The idea was dumb to begin with and actually gets dumber the more I think about it.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

The idea was dumb to begin with and actually gets dumber the more I think about it.

Yes. It was never a good idea. The person who brought it up was an idiot.

It sounds cool, like we'll have a tournament that has stakes... but then it would end up being something like "winner of the All-Star game's league has home field advantage in the World Series. The idea sounds like "Hey, we did something!" without considering how dumb and arbitrary the thing they did was.

 

[TheOtherOne]

The only way to do this is to stick with what was within the realm of possibility.

This means:
- The Wings were locked into their odds. No matter what happened with the final games, they would not have changed. Therefore they have to keep those odds.
- The Bruins were locked into a playoff spot (I assume?). Therefore it should be impossible for them to have ANY odds in the lottery.
- X team was mathematically locked into a position between Y and Z in the standings. Therefore whatever they do to modify the draft has to leave them with odds somewhere in that range.

Anything else would be bullshit.

 

[Retire91]

No. I'm in favor of simple reverse order. It works for baseball and football. You can't do it in basketball because one player can literally turn a team around in the NBA. Like Lebron himself made Cleveland a contender. He left and they were worst in the league. He came back and they were a contender. He left again and they're the worst in the league again.

Hockey is closer to the other two in terms of the effect one player can have on a roster.

I'm not just saying it because Detroit is at the bottom right now. If a team is so bad they get multiple high draft picks in a row, the fans will/should start to revolt. The bigger problem of Edmonton getting multiple 1OAs in that short span is that they weren't the worst team in the league for each of those years. They lucked into 1OAs that they shouldn't have gotten. Or now with New Jersey where they got a couple 1OAs through luck rather than being the worst team in the league. If you are spacing out picks so bad teams don't keep getting the best players... you should just keep the lottery. The whole point of reverse order is so that teams who were the worst get the most help to get better.

We had a couple GMs latch onto the idea of "we won't be better than mediocre, so let's just tell fans that we will suck for awhile and hope they buy in" in Hinkie and whoever was running the show in Houston for the Astros. And we had entire fanbases completely discount anything except for winning a title. If you're an 8 seed going into the playoffs, you might as well just lose out prior to that and get your 1% chance at a top pick instead of a 10% chance you might shock a team.

Rebuilding should not be a multi-year tear the foundation down and we will be an abomination for a sustained period. That is where we are at in sports nowadays and with the salary cap and needing to offer term to get guys to go anywhere, it's a reality of the system. But it shouldn't fall to "we're going to be so bad we are unwatchable for about three years and then maybe we can look ok".

Give me more Billy Beanes who try to win at the rigged game by doing something unique like targetting undervalued players as opposed to Sam Hinkie's let's be so bad that we have no other choice than to get good players and just hope to god the fans are there on the other side.

I do understand what you are saying but I think the criticism is a bit unfair. The wings are for the sake of argument unwatchably bad. They are basically an AHL all-star team going head to head with NHL teams night in night out and the record reflects it. The problem I have is the lack of understanding that we did not get here in a vacuum. We got here through a series of very calculated decisions that were designed to extend the streak and half-ass the future. There is nothing this team could do to go from unwatchably bad to barely watchable bad in the span of one season without decreasing the odds of getting the assets that will make the most difference to our future. This roster is the direct price to pay for 'get in and anything can happen'. There is no use in giving a 1985 Chevrolet cavalier a new paint job to try and get more dates. Just save up for a new car.

I was revolting as a fan that we were becoming so bad we were going to be in the running for multiple first, but I was doing it in 2015 when I saw the direction we were heading in. Now that we are here there is no alternative but sit back and hope that bubble exit repeat was worth it.

 

[raymond23]

I just don’t understand these discussions about blowing up the lottery and doing something completely different. We played 90% of the season.

That draft tournament idea might be the worst idea I’ve ever heard. What’s next, have the mascots compete in an MMA tournament?

How about we keep things simple and draft by your position in the standings. We need to stop trying to “fix” everything when all it does it make it worse (see: current draft lottery).

 

[Bench]

What’s next, have the mascots compete in an MMA tournament?

OK but let's all admit we'd watch this.